Bitcoin Halving only 1 year away

[YUriy1991]

I'm just a little concerned that the halving will no longer be an ATH trigger. I think this is slowly becoming a routine that is predictable so everyone is getting their hopes up for this event, while some of the big "players" are preparing for several scenarios that prevent more cash flow from coming into the industry.

This seems to me so commonplace, that some investors may have concerns regarding the predictability of Bitcoin halving events and their potential impact on the price. While traditionally seen as a catalyst to push prices to new all-time highs, there are a variety of factors at play that can impact the market outcome.

Well, for anyone Don't just rely on past patterns or expectations but a proper risk management and investment strategy should be practiced in navigating the unpredictable volatile nature of the cryptocurrency market.

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[Bazzu]

I'm just a little concerned that the halving will no longer be an ATH trigger. I think this is slowly becoming a routine that is predictable so everyone is getting their hopes up for this event, while some of the big "players" are preparing for several scenarios that prevent more cash flow from coming into the industry.

This seems to me so commonplace, that some investors may have concerns regarding the predictability of Bitcoin halving events and their potential impact on the price. While traditionally seen as a catalyst to push prices to new all-time highs, there are a variety of factors at play that can impact the market outcome.

Well, for anyone Don't just rely on past patterns or expectations but a proper risk management and investment strategy should be practiced in navigating the unpredictable volatile nature of the cryptocurrency market.

Bitcoin halving is indeed getting closer and indeed fear is always there in any business as well as investing in BTC. and also we will not know the price of btc at the time of the btc halving.

and I agree with you that in this case we must have a good strategy to manage our assets so that we do not experience losses.

[Party24*7]

I'm just a little concerned that the halving will no longer be an ATH trigger. I think this is slowly becoming a routine that is predictable so everyone is getting their hopes up for this event, while some of the big "players" are preparing for several scenarios that prevent more cash flow from coming into the industry.

It's just your concern, and there is no proof that it will ever happen. For me, I still believe that history will repeat itself, and in the event that history does not repeat itself, I do believe that bitcoin will rise in price somehow in the future. This is a financial market and if bitcoin doesn't go up, the game is over. So market makers won't let that happen because this is where they make money so easily, they will find ways to maintain it.

[1miau]

It's realistic streams of established miners abandon Bitcoin when halving strikes. One block returning 3.125 BTC isn't supremely attractive to miners unless they're mining farms churning away at industrial rate hash rates.

Most miners are well aware of halvings and are planning these in their operations. At least professional miners, which are the majority. For example buying less new hardware when mining is expected to be less profitable. But there are many parameters for miners to look at, like Bitcoin price, too. A big block reward is pretty meaningless when Bitcoin is at 10k USD instead of 30k USD.
So, we won't see Bitcoin's hashrate dropping directly after the halving as one could expect.
Maybe I can post a picture here, when it's happening. Plenty mining stats site are available.

[AakZaki]

This seems to me so commonplace, that some investors may have concerns regarding the predictability of Bitcoin halving events and their potential impact on the price. While traditionally seen as a catalyst to push prices to new all-time highs, there are a variety of factors at play that can impact the market outcome.

Well, for anyone Don't just rely on past patterns or expectations but a proper risk management and investment strategy should be practiced in navigating the unpredictable volatile nature of the cryptocurrency market.

Relying solely on past patterns that may repeat themselves is not recommended. There will be many factors that can affect the market and it will not be the same as the past. It may be a bit off the mark, but a bull market when the halving will happen could happen but the extent of the bullishness will be unpredictable. Crypto volatility will be very influential. Doing some risk management and strategy would be advisable. Must have a plan A and plan B when the strategy does not match the initial plan.

[Ozero]

I think with every halvening the effect on the price will be smaller and smaller, because the absolute decrease in rewards is also getting smaller. Soon 93% of all coins will be mined, so most of the scarcity is already priced in. The price is a result of supply and demand, and demand will play bigger and bigger role while supply is approaching the limit.

We already saw only 3.5 times increase between bull market peaks of the last two cycles - so maybe the next will bring only a x1.5-1.75 increase, so $100k peak of the next cycle.

Most likely, your assumption is correct. With each new halving, the price growth of bitcoin as a percentage will decrease. That is, within a year after the next halving, already in 2025, the price of bitcoin will approach one hundred thousand dollars. In addition, it should be taken into account that when high price values are reached, the demand for it in peak periods will no longer be the same as in previous cycles. Also, its price will depend on the events taking place in the world, and on the level of regulation of the cryptocurrency market by states.

[siniminomorocomunisakito]

I think with every halvening the effect on the price will be smaller and smaller, because the absolute decrease in rewards is also getting smaller. Soon 93% of all coins will be mined, so most of the scarcity is already priced in. The price is a result of supply and demand, and demand will play bigger and bigger role while supply is approaching the limit.

We already saw only 3.5 times increase between bull market peaks of the last two cycles - so maybe the next will bring only a x1.5-1.75 increase, so $100k peak of the next cycle.

Most likely, your assumption is correct. With each new halving, the price growth of bitcoin as a percentage will decrease. That is, within a year after the next halving, already in 2025, the price of bitcoin will approach one hundred thousand dollars. In addition, it should be taken into account that when high price values are reached, the demand for it in peak periods will no longer be the same as in previous cycles. Also, its price will depend on the events taking place in the world, and on the level of regulation of the cryptocurrency market by states.

Yes, the next halving moment will most likely lead to a decrease in the percentage growth, external factors such as increased adoption and institutional investment could also push the price up even further and I think it makes sense that the price of bitcoin will continue to increase in the future as it is becoming more rare but important too to consider various perspectives especially when investing in Bitcoin.

[Magic-Money]

Wow, that is serious about Bitcoin halving spreadsheet analysis, shows that for every Bitcoin halving it keeps on decreasing per block for miner's and I seen Bitcoin price will be scarce in the market, which demands will be greater than supply demand in the cryptocurrency market.

[Faisal2202]

And honestly, we need to admit that 3.125 BTC per block is very low:

I am not a miner but overall, the financial economy is co-related and works dependently, and grows equally in parallel time. So if, the salaries are increasing that's because if you are buying an apple for let's say $5 for 1KG that will be $10 for 1kg in the near future. The same goes with BTC, as when the reward is reduced to 3.125 (almost half) the price will be doubled and i think miners will be able to make the same reward or maybe more, just my thoughts, as the transactions fee will be increased too, so they will earn from validation too.

As prices will definitely go up due to high demand and low supply, this will increase the BTC prices and miners will be able to make the same reward or maybe more there is definitely a possibility of less profit if the price didn't increase. Plus the image you have used is really amazing I would love to see a resource of it.

[cydrix]

That simply indicates that it's still early and that there will be plenty of chances for us to amass Bitcoin during the coming years. When the halving comes close, the market price will soar once more, which means it might be advantageous for many investors. I mean, it could certainly increase market buzz. In addition, there will be a significant impact on mining rewards once more, which may cause many miners to lose money at that time and lower the network hash rate, which would increase transaction times and lessen network security.

[tread93]

Twice as difficult to mine definitely throws a pick axe into the work required just to mine half of what they used to! Once the halving occurs the price should definitely go up simply by lower supply and higher demand!! History usually repeats itself, every halving its gone up. If bitcoin doesn't go up when this thing halves i'm going to be utterly shocked.

[southerngentuk]

A useful reminder when investing in BTC is to exercise caution and good judgment. While history may suggest that halvings can lead to bull runs and new ATHs, it's important to remember that past performance is not a guarantee of future results. One more thing is taking on debt or risking your basic needs to invest in BTC is not advisable. Instead, learn how to DCA your investment to reduce risk and volatility. In summary, while it's understandable to be excited about the potential for BTC, it's important to approach investing with caution, patience, and a long-term perspective.

[yohananaomi]

A useful reminder when investing in BTC is to exercise caution and good judgment. While history may suggest that halvings can lead to bull runs and new ATHs, it's important to remember that past performance is not a guarantee of future results. One more thing is taking on debt or risking your basic needs to invest in BTC is not advisable. Instead, learn how to DCA your investment to reduce risk and volatility. In summary, while it's understandable to be excited about the potential for BTC, it's important to approach investing with caution, patience, and a long-term perspective.

trust in bitcoin is very high and cannot be avoided, but what you say can also be true that even though bitcoin's past experience will increase when it enters the halving period and a year later it will reach a renewable ATH, but caution is still being exercised. therefore, when bitcoin is going down, immediately buy for investment, hold off until the halving occurs, so that if it misses, you won't be too disappointed because you have indeed bought it at a low price.
but it must also be remembered that bitcoin has been repeating itself all this time, so many believe that the halving period will increase the price of bitcoin.

[Agbe]

Though I started my bitcoin journey in the late 2021. But from my research the last halving was in the month of May 11, 2020 and halving takes four (4) year interval to occur. We really don't know what will happen in the next halving. And presently the mining fee is very high to the extend that to make a transaction is not interested to someone again. Like yesterday I was making a transaction of 0.01 BTC and the Mining Fee was 0.000222 and the Fee Rate was 906.2 Sat/B then the Target was (ETA) Within 25 Block. So because of the high mining fee rate I have to suspend the transaction till the following date and the fee bit came down so I made the transfer successful.

If the next halving year will bring down the mining fee and then bring up the price of bitcoin to All Time High (ATH). Almost every is waiting to see the ATH price of Bitcoin. Though even the bear market is favouring some new investors. Most people are always comparing the bull market of 2021 to any other coming one and that is wrong because what is coming will definitely bigger than that.

[hd49728]

Though I started my bitcoin journey in the late 2021. But from my research the last halving was in the month of May 11, 2020 and halving takes four (4) year interval to occur. We really don't know what will happen in the next halving.

Bitcoin has its block reward halving every 210,000 blocks.

Block reward halving countdown

Past halving event dates

The first halving event occurred on the 28th of November, 2012 (UTC) at block height 210,000
The second halving event occurred on the 9th of July, 2016 (UTC) at block height 420,000
The third halving event occurred on the 11th of May, 2020 (UTC) at block height 630,000

From the past halving event dates and blocks at which it happened, a next block reward halving will occur at the block #840,000. In estimation, it will be about 359+ days since today.

And presently the mining fee is very high to the extend that to make a transaction is not interested to someone again. Like yesterday I was making a transaction of 0.01 BTC and the Mining Fee was 0.000222 and the Fee Rate was 906.2 Sat/B then the Target was (ETA) Within 25 Block. So because of the high mining fee rate I have to suspend the transaction till the following date and the fee bit came down so I made the transfer successful.

Are you sure that you have to pay 906.2 sat/byte in the last 24 hours or 48 hours to have a confirmation within 25 blocks?

https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#BTC%20(default%20mempool),2d,weight

Within last 48 hours, you won't have to pay more than 200+ sat/vbyte to have a confirmation within a next one to three blocks. From which wallet you made that 906.2 sat/byte transaction?

Is it from an exchange account?

[ItsCrafty]

Though I started my bitcoin journey in the late 2021. But from my research the last halving was in the month of May 11, 2020 and halving takes four (4) year interval to occur.  

Yes btc last halving was in the year of 2021 when btc mining rewards down from 12.5 to 6.25. This was the third halving. before halving reward was 50 Satoshi and after first halving in 2012 reward drop to 25 and then then in 2016 rewards drop to 25.

We really don't know what will happen in the next halving.

Bitcoin price is unpredictable but most of the analyzer check 4 year cycle and previous  bitcoin price reaction during last event to predict price. I don't that Btc can only be predicted by previous action because there are some more factor also have an impact on btc price like economic status, adoption of crypto, positive and negative news about btc and we should look for all before predicting price.

[Sidra101]

Not a big deal again that bitcoin halving happens every four years, where the amount of new Bitcoins created by the Bitcoin network is reduced by half. This controls the supply of new Bitcoins to prevent inflation and makes it more valuable over time. Back to history; The first halving was in 2012 when 50 Bitcoins were reduced to 25, and the second was in 2016 when 25 Bitcoins became 12.5. The most recent was in 2020, where 12.5 Bitcoins became 6.25. So., Investors, traders, and miners should keep an eye on Bitcoin halving as it has been followed by a significant increase in Bitcoin's price in the past.

[kevinzxz]

so we only have 1 year left for DCA and after that our patience will pay off, because I believe 2024 will be a good year for cryptocurrency, because the price of Bitcoin and some Altcoin will definitely increase very high and create a new ATH price, therefore I want to take advantage of the current opportunity to do DCA Bitcoin and hold until the next bullrun comes, so that I will definitely get a big profit from doing DCA Bitcoin at this time.

[Altryist]

Relying solely on past patterns that may repeat themselves is not recommended. There will be many factors that can affect the market and it will not be the same as the past. It may be a bit off the mark, but a bull market when the halving will happen could happen but the extent of the bullishness will be unpredictable. Crypto volatility will be very influential. Doing some risk management and strategy would be advisable. Must have a plan A and plan B when the strategy does not match the initial plan.

If we evaluate the cycles globally, then the result will be the same, after the bear market comes the bull market. To what extent it will repeat is really very difficult to say, or how much the cycles will increase or decrease is also very difficult to say, but this should worry traders, but for investors everything remains the same, we are gaining positions in the bear market and waiting for the onset of the bull market.

Whether the rise in the price of bitcoin depends on halving or not, this is not so important, I see a trend that after each halving, bitcoin becomes more expensive, even if this does not happen immediately, this suits me quite well.

[Jating]

so we only have 1 year left for DCA and after that our patience will pay off, because I believe 2024 will be a good year for cryptocurrency, because the price of Bitcoin and some Altcoin will definitely increase very high and create a new ATH price, therefore I want to take advantage of the current opportunity to do DCA Bitcoin and hold until the next bullrun comes, so that I will definitely get a big profit from doing DCA Bitcoin at this time.

History tells us that when bitcoin goes on a bull run, it has a trickle effect to the altcoins as well. Although there could be altcoins that can grow, even bigger returns but it's going to be too risky, so the best bet is bitcoin for the majority of us (or at least those maximalist).

As for the hash-rate and difficulty, it's been adjusting as well so I don't see a issue when we reach the halving 1 year from now. And for the miners, of course, they are businessman, so they will have to time the market as well when to offload their stash to make money.


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