Correction from $30K: Reason to worry?

[dragonvslinux]

With price dropping today from $30K to around $29K, are you worried there will be a deeper correction, or return to bear market, or is this just the short-term correction before re-testing $30K?

Many speculators anticipated rejection from $30K level, as this was previously support for 18 months in from 2021 to mid 2022 and could become strong resistance. Although so far (as of writing) we have only seen a -5% correction to $29K. Ultimately I think it's too early to tell if price will correct further to $25K, $23K or break the recent higher low of $20K. But nonetheless people have started to get concerned, hence this thread.

Some positives to consider:

• Price remains above all Daily moving averages (20,50,200) while above $29K, so far from bearish longer-term
• Price remains in a bull flag / upwards trend since mid March with short-term support level around $28.6K
• Price previously broke through $25K strong resistance that could well turn into new support
• The current sell-off isn't supported by strong volume, similar to the move to $30K initially

These are just a few factors that come to mind. While short-term (1hr/4hr) price can be seen as bearish, it remains bullish on the Daily time-frame and still reversing the bearish trend on Weekly/Monthly time-frames.

Personally I think $28K level is likely to act as strong support, due to the 3 weeks of consolidation/accumulation that occurred recently. Otherwise below this level I think a re-test of the 200 WMA around $26K, as well as $25K becomes increasingly likely. The 200 Day MA however continues to rise from $20K, now above $21K, with major consolidation/accumulation zone currently priced at around $23K.

[electronicash]

in the 4hr tf, the 28k could be a strong support that this price could bounce up to $32K which is a reason not to worry. for short-term trader though, its going to be a good time to sell.

it's after $32k that there will be the possibility of correction which $25k will be the support. because the correction is much longer when the market will be on overbought at the weekly chart.

[BITCOIN4X]

With price dropping today from $30K to around $29K, are you worried there will be a deeper correction, or return to bear market, or is this just the short-term correction before re-testing $30K?

I will not be affected by this correction, so I will only consider it as short-term correction that will likely recover in the near future. The 1 Day and 4 Hour TF looks bearish, but we are still in an uptrend if we look at it from the 1 Month TF. So I personally wouldn't worry about this correction, it's just going to be very close to recovering and getting back to testing $30k.

Strong support now expected at $29k, but if this correction is followed by panic traders then I don't think $29k will be able to withstand the selling pressure. I hope there is no deeper correction, this should be resolved in the short term.

[coolcoinz]

Don't look for specific price in USD but see how big the change was. How much did we really lose from yesterday? 3%? That's nothing when we compare it to a normal price action of bitcoin.
Bitcoin is known for experiencing daily price action of +/- 5% and this usually happens at least twice a month, which if you look at the charts is exactly what's been going on for years.

In March we had a correction from 28,7k to 26,6k, this time it's 30,3 to 29k (so far)so this is a much smaller drop than 3 weeks ago. If you weren't worried then, why make threads about it now?

[dragonvslinux]

With price dropping today from $30K to around $29K, are you worried there will be a deeper correction, or return to bear market, or is this just the short-term correction before re-testing $30K?

The 1 Day and 4 Hour TF looks bearish, but we are still in an uptrend if we look at it from the 1 Month TF.

How does the 1 Day chart look bearish to you? I only see a bearish candle from today, nothing else. As I referenced in the OP, price is above all it's short to long-term MAs, the RSI on the border of neutral/bullish (far from bearish), CMF is still bullish, the only exception would be the MACD that is crossing bearish today, mainly due to the minimal move to the upside above $29K, hence MAs are catching up.

As someone else pointed out in the thread, price is down -3% today, or -5% from it's yearly high, which overall is a pretty standard price fluctuation for an asset like Bitcoin.

[thecodebear]

Why would this make worry you OP?? Bitcoin doesn't just go straight up. Did you already have the same worry like a half dozen times this year?? Cuz there have been plenty of drops so far this year.

I just saw an article in a major publication today claiming that Bitcoin's rally has stalled...all I could think is wtf?!

Bitcoin literally just hit $30k a week ago. OP why would you possibly be worrying?

Bitcoin has already "stalled/corrected" at $21k, $23k, $24k, $26k, and $28k so far this year. Hell from late Feb to mid march it dropped from $25k to $19k over like 3 weeks. I don't know why going from $30k to $29k is worrying some people so much, as though this is anything but completely normal.

This is literally just normal price action. If you get worried over this you must have only just joined Bitcoin this month. And be prepared to get worried every few weeks lol

[wahyuagung26]

With price dropping today from $30K to around $29K, are you worried there will be a deeper correction, or return to bear market, or is this just the short-term correction before re-testing $30K?

individually, the correction that is happening to Bitcoin right now doesn't really have a big effect on me, because so far Bitcoin has increased very well and when they experience this price correction I think it's normal and certainly doesn't make us worry, maybe at this time the market is still red on bitcoin and there has been no sign of returning to where it was or increasing more than before.

[carlfebz2]

With price dropping today from $30K to around $29K, are you worried there will be a deeper correction, or return to bear market, or is this just the short-term correction before re-testing $30K?

individually, the correction that is happening to Bitcoin right now doesn't really have a big effect on me, because so far Bitcoin has increased very well and when they experience this price correction I think it's normal and certainly doesn't make us worry, maybe at this time the market is still red on bitcoin and there has been no sign of returning to where it was or increasing more than before.

We know that market is something that having that normal movement which it cant really be something that would really be having that single movement or just going up like forever.There's always a correction,

retracement, which means that instead on freaking out with these kind of movements, it would better for you to see to be this is an opportunity to buy cheap because we know that after some corrections or dump,
there's always a recovery which means if you are really that wise on playing up with moving of prices then you could make an advantage to make profits in short time.

Well, this isnt for everybody because making up short trades or active trades isnt something that could be easily pull off.

[tabas]

I'm not worried at all even if it falls below $20k again. This is essential for it to have that retest that we're all anticipating because that's how it act before it gets to another support level. Long term people have nothing to worry about. This has been seen by the books already and experiencing the market even without going through technical analysis will tell that this is a common move for bitcoin as we know what will come by next year. These roller coaster rides are fairly normal and bitcoin has to go through several process of going down before it becomes stable again with the support that we might see soon. Each level that it goes up provides another support and these retests surely are part of it. By then, traders should still be careful, the active or daily traders because in these short terms the moves are unknown and unpredictable just as the usual.

[n0ne]

When the price wants to cross specific price barrier it undergoes correction. Based on what is happening around the cryptomarket the corrective measures used to in favour or against the market. For now there is nothing negative, so we can have the resistance that could push the price forward after few weeks of oscillation between the margin of $27500-$29500. If this gets pushed earlier we can expect price to touch $35k and once again stagnate around the value for some time period.

[Dave1]

Yeah, I don't think we have to worry about the current decreased in the price, it's just the normal pattern. If we breach the resistance like in this case of $30k, it's hard to sustain it's run. Just like when we broke $25k and $28k. Specially that $28k, that's one of the hardest barrier because we have like attempted 5x to go over it and sustained. And even if we go past $28k, it went sideways for the next 10 days. So this might be the case as well to $30k, going to trade sideways for the longest time before we can make another break out run to maybe $32k. And then it will just repeat itself again.

[DevilSlayer]

I do not know why you guys worrying about the current movement of the bitcoin, remember that retracement are one of the natures of the cryptocurrency market. It is pretty normal to see a retracement as long as it will not go deeper below -20% or more. A lot of people asking if the price of bitcoin is healthy even though it is currently going down, for me it is a yes because like what I said, retracement is important and it is necessary if we want to see bitcoin at around $32,000 + or even more.

Do not worry guys because the major support has been established around $29,000. The possibility of the bitcoin to breakdown in that area is very low so we can expect a bounce in the following days because the price of it is considered as cheap especially for the swing traders.

[bbc.reporter]

My vote is for no, we should not worry. Inflows on bitcoin have been coming from institutional investors according reports backed up with data being shared in social media. This week, bitcoin has $100 million of inflows.

The coin holders that should be preparing for a big dump are the holders of ethereum. The latest upgrade has unlocked billions of dollars in staked coins and it appears some of them are being deposited to exchanges.



Crypto exchanges received a net inflow of 179,500 ether (ETH), worth some $375 million in the four days after Ethereum’s Shanghai upgrade went live, according to crypto data firm CryptoQuant.

CryptoQuant data shows that traders deposited 1,101,079 ETH to exchanges between April 13 and April 16, while only removing 921,579 tokens. This was the largest four-day net inflow in a month.

Investors transferring tokens to exchanges usually indicates they are preparing to sell, which may lead to a price decline.

Source https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2023/04/17/exchanges-receive-375m-influx-of-ether-since-shanghai-upgrade-as-price-hits-11-month-high/

[BenCodie]

OP, you've answered a lot of your thread title with your fine rationalization. One thing that seems to be missed by everyone is sideways action.

I think it's clear that everyone is fearful of sharp crashes or dips of 10%+ as we saw in the last bull run. The difference between last bull run and this (in my opinion, temporary) bull run is that Bitcoin was artificially reduced in value pretty much throughout all of 2022. Now, it's sideways and upwards until this trend is over. I wouldn't expect huge crashes, just small corrections like the one we just saw...and to go with it, lots of steady and sideways action.

Crypto exchanges received a net inflow of 179,500 ether (ETH), worth some $375 million in the four days after Ethereum’s Shanghai upgrade went live, according to crypto data firm CryptoQuant.

CryptoQuant data shows that traders deposited 1,101,079 ETH to exchanges between April 13 and April 16, while only removing 921,579 tokens. This was the largest four-day net inflow in a month.

Investors transferring tokens to exchanges usually indicates they are preparing to sell, which may lead to a price decline.

Source https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2023/04/17/exchanges-receive-375m-influx-of-ether-since-shanghai-upgrade-as-price-hits-11-month-high/

Anything coindesk says should be taken with a grain of salt. They, along with CoinTelegram and other mainstream crypto news platforms are for the most part, garbage. 

I think it should also be known that during the last bull run, on-chain data was just becoming a wider known form of data for predicting the price. Whales and market manipulators who seek to the control the price paid almost no mind to this data and it was an accurate way of seeing where the market was headed. This time things are very different. You should expect on-chain data to be just as manipulated as the charts you TA on. Take it all with a grain of salt.

[adaseb]

It’s too early to say. We would need a bad looking weekly candle or some type of failed double top. Yes it looks scary because we are at major resistance but the same happened in early 2019 when we broke thru $6k.

Many sold or shorted at $6K but it never had a double top or had a bad weekly close and hence why we just went thru it like butter. Could be the same situation here. We need more time in this area to see if we will break or not.

[Husires]

All the scenarios that you set for the price do not include a rebound above $30,000,
the next trend is bearish, or are you letting the bearish scenarios go?

As I expected previously, the price will not continue to move away from above 30k, and we may retest the same levels after the next Federal Reserve meeting. Until then, I suggest returning to testing the 26k and long-term stability at the 28k.

Less than 24K is a very pessimistic scenario and we may not see it soon.

[Poker Player]

With price dropping today from $30K to around $29K, are you worried there will be a deeper correction, or return to bear market, or is this just the short-term correction before re-testing $30K?

Not really. I am concerned about the long term. These fluctuations, although they entertain me, don't worry me that much. I see the drop as part of normal volatility and I don't see any special reason for it.

Personally I think $28K level is likely to act as strong support, due to the 3 weeks of consolidation/accumulation that occurred recently. Otherwise below this level I think a re-test of the 200 WMA around $26K, as well as $25K becomes increasingly likely. The 200 Day MA however continues to rise from $20K, now above $21K, with major consolidation/accumulation zone currently priced at around $23K.

I wouldn't rule out dips to around $25K or so, as you say, but I think the worst of the bear market is over and I highly doubt we'll see $20K again. I think the underlying trend is going to be up. With less and less time left for halving I think the macroeconomic situation is out of its worst moment too.

Lol, I voted "no" and I see that 100% (out of 9) we voted the same.

[michellee]

I'm not worried about the drop this time because I still believe bitcoin can go back to $30k and can even go higher. You should not need to analyze too deeply if you bought bitcoin at a low price yesterday and still want to hold bitcoin longer.

If you analyze bitcoin again, maybe you'll find something that can worry you even though it's not like that will happen later. This correction gives me more opportunities to buy bitcoin and maybe this correction will last for a few days or a week before the price can go up again.

[dragonvslinux]

Why would this make worry you OP?? Bitcoin doesn't just go straight up. Did you already have the same worry like a half dozen times this year?? Cuz there have been plenty of drops so far this year.

Where or when did I say that I was worried about the current price action or yesterday's correction?? Check the OP, I only highlighted bullish factors and made clear that I think it's too early to tell if there will be a correction towards lower prices. My point was that speculators are getting nervous about a correction and I was curious to see if it's reflected in people's opinions here, which doesn't seem the case.

Bitcoin literally just hit $30k a week ago. OP why would you possibly be worrying?

Even just reading the post above yours would have confirmed that I'm not worried about any short-term rejection from $30K that occured.

This is literally just normal price action.

Literally exactly what I said in the thread above yours regarding a -3% Daily move to the downside.

OP, you've answered a lot of your thread title with your fine rationalization. One thing that seems to be missed by everyone is sideways action.

It's a good point. For me sideways consolidation at the highs is bullish. It shows price is able to to sustain higher levels and bears are unable to move prices lower. So in that regard, not being worried about a short-term correction and being bullish is inclusive of sideways price action (rather than just continued upside). Based on the consolidation around $28K, I also agree it's quite likely around $30K in order to remain bullish.

[btc_angela]

And just like that, we are now back to $30k, seeing as high as $30,300 on some exchanges. Maybe the bulls just take a quick break in the weekends and now going to push it again to the resistance of $30,500.

So yeah, just like the rest, I'm not worried about the correction that we've seen.

With this movement, the bullish flag is still confirmed in my opinion and so we might see some movement this week.