When to buy one time off bitcoin.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

I want to know when exactly to buy bitcoin since I don't want to use the DCA system in this purchase. Will market see anything below $20k again?

That depends on how long you plan to hold it for.

If you're going to wait at least a couple of cycles I think it doesn't matter, and if you're going to wait at least a couple of years, now would be a good time too.

OP if you just want to make a single Bitcoin purchase you should be buying right now. You don't want to wait.

It is quite hard to choose the right time to buy but I would agree with @thecodebear, now is the right moment since we do not know what will happen later, there is a possibility of the price uptrending and never touching the current price again. 

Taking a medium-term view, it is clear that now is a good time, because the price could go down a bit, but in the long term it will go up. What seems to me is that the OP is overly concerned about market timing. If he was going to buy bitcoin for the very long term I don't think he would have asked that question unless he was moderately informed, but I think he is thinking about when exactly is the best time to buy, just as he will think in the near future about the best time to sell, which is timing the market and first it is extremely difficult to get it right, and secondly as the saying goes: 'it is better time in the market than timing the market'.

[1714790379]

1714790379

[pawel7777]

Judging from pasted experience, we usually have two types of fomo, the first fomo happens few weeks to the halving date, Bitcoin price will increase as people won't what to miss out thinking the price will pump high immediately the halving is over. Usually projects tends to pump towards an event date in the cryptocurrency market and Bitcoin itself is no exception.

After the halving, a correction in price happens as people get disappointed as Bitcoin wouldn't pump as they expected and also the corrections happens as a result of traders taking profits for the gains they have made leading to the halving date. The real bull market starts a year after the halving which is 2025.

But let's not forget that traders will always try to out-smart others. They will look at past cycles and try to make their moves before anyone else. So I wouldn't be surprised if we see both pump and dump before the halving (and then maybe another one sometime after).

That depends on how long you plan to hold it for.

If you're going to wait at least a couple of cycles I think it doesn't matter, and if you're going to wait at least a couple of years, now would be a good time too.

I think OP made it clear that he's aiming for the next halving-related bull run, so we're probably not looking very long-term here.

[virasog]

Bitcoin next halving will happen in the 1st quarter of the year 2024, which means by this time next year. People that have witnessed halving and its bull run. Please, I want to know if;

• Bull run happens few months or weeks to halving
• Or it happens few weeks or months after halving
• Or it happens simultaneously in the week or month of halving

I want to know when exactly to buy bitcoin since I don't want to use the DCA system in this purchase. Will market see anything below $20k again?

Since you want to buy one once and do not want to do the DCA, then i think you can buy it at right now or wait for 25500$ ?
The problem with you is that if you waited for 20K and the price did not go that below and pump back up towards the All time high, you will miss the entry altogether.

Even if you buy bitcoin now at 27,250$ and the minimum target for the next bull season may be 100,000$, still you be in good profit. So if you are not in the mood of DCA, then I would suggest you go all in at the current price.

I think OP made it clear that he's aiming for the next halving-related bull run, so we're probably not looking very long-term here.

If he can wait for the next halving, he will be in still in profit, if he buys bitcoin right now.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

Out of curiosity - how did you calculate these inflation rates for Bitcoin?

And shouldn't we also be looking at the actual fiat price rather than just looking at percentages? i.e. for 50 to 25btc halving, if the price was at $100, - that's $2,500 per block less needed to keep the price at the current level. For 6.25 to 3.125 halving (with $30k per bitcoin), that's $93,750. Depending on the volume and number of bitcoins available for sale, this could have a bigger impact than the percentage figure alone indicates.

Its a monetary inflation. So all i had to do is calculate the annual amount of new coins (block reward * 6 * 24 * 365) divided by the number of coins already in circulation in that day.  

We can try to use price in such estimates, but it won't give us any useful conclusions because price prediction is what people are aiming for (the result of the analyses). So we can't use price as substrate and product in one analysis. Or can we?

And, as always, there are psychological factors as well, i.e. expectations of repeating cycles. People start buying because they expect other people will start buying.

As for fiat inflation, sadly, Bitcoin is yet to prove itself as a good hedge against that.

i agree. First halvings had hudge fundamential impact on price. Today's halving has little to zero fundamental impact on price but a huge psychological impact. Reading a lot of people's opinions, I see that many people are counting heavily on this halving and next cycle to begin.

[pawel7777]

Its a monetary inflation. So all i had to do is calculate the annual amount of new coins (block reward * 6 * 24 * 365) divided by the number of coins already in circulation in that day.  

I was a bit puzzled about which figures you used for "coins already in circulation" for the first rate of 25%. I'd assume we'd need to use the number at the beginning (not the end) of the period, which, for the first period was zero, so can't really calculate that.

We can try to use price in such estimates, but it won't give us any useful conclusions because price prediction is what people are aiming for. So we can't use price as substrate and product in one analysis. Or can we?

This question is too difficult for Saturday morning  

i agree. First halvings had hudge fundamential impact on price. Today's halving has little to zero fundamental impact on price but a huge psychological impact. Reading a lot of people's opinions, I see that many people are counting heavily on this halving and next cycle to begin.

Yeah, that's why I get bad feelings about it.

[Smack That Ace]

OP if you just want to make a single Bitcoin purchase you should be buying right now. You don't want to wait.


The bear market just ended a month ago, so very little chance it goes down from here. Especially since it is correcting a little bit right now. This week / next week may very well be the lowest it ever is from here on out.

Within a few months it'll probably be in the $35k-$40k range. A year from now when the halving happens it'll likely be double the current price or maybe even higher.


If you want to only buy once and try to get the lowest price the only intelligent answer is to buy right now because the bear market just ended so the price will in general be going up from here on out. Within a few weeks the price may never be below $30k again, and it is currently just under $28k. So buying today would be just about as good as you can possibly do.

You are quite optimistic, and I applaud your spirit. But that's just your guess, we have no proof that bitcoin will not be able to fall back, and it will hit $40k in the near future.
One more thing, I disagree with you with the statement that the bear season ended last month, if you believe in history and 4 year cycle, we are still in bear season and far from halving. Buying now is also very good, but no one knows whether it is the lowest price or not.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

I was a bit puzzled about which figures you used for "coins already in circulation" for the first rate of 25%. I'd assume we'd need to use the number at the beginning (not the end) of the period, which, for the first period was zero, so can't really calculate that.

"first halving reduced inflation from 25% to 12%" So when the first halving happened, it was after 4 years of mining 50 btc per block. Without halving, next year's inflation would be 25%, with halving - 12%. So halving reduced inflation from 25% to 12%.
So i think i was correct with taking the end of the period.

[Lucius]

I want to know when exactly to buy bitcoin since I don't want to use the DCA system in this purchase. Will market see anything below $20k again?

Well, it's not like you're a beginner who should be asking these kinds of questions, right? If you haven't invested anything in Bitcoin since 2021 (and you were a member of this forum then), then I would say that you are already quite late if we look exclusively from the angle of the profit you could have already made. Be persistent and patient, some still claim that the price will go below $15k, the only question is whether you want to believe it...

[posi]

I want to know when exactly to buy bitcoin since I don't want to use the DCA system in this purchase. Will market see anything below $20k again?

I think the best time to buy bitcoin is over, I mean, when bitcoin hit $15k last year, and if you are still waiting for a lower price, then you missed the best opportunity. Currently, bitcoin is recovering, and we can say we are in the middle, and if you continue to hesitate, you will most likely have to regret it again. I don't understand why you don't want to use DCA and only want to buy once, while the DCA strategy is the best in a bear market like this. Think it again.

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

I want to know when exactly to buy bitcoin since I don't want to use the DCA system in this purchase. Will market see anything below $20k again?

you have said you don't want DCA, so judging by your comment, it means you want to buy when price is $20 k or below ? But that's under probability, some people still believe that Bitcoin will drop below $22k but all are just speculation, possibly it's may but I don't think you should wait until $20k or below. if you want to buy let's say 1 Bitcoin, then you still need to use the DCA and be accumulating gradually maybe every month you can buy with $1k or 1.5k, so that even if price fall you will still be accumulating and if the price pumps, you will still be on the advantages because you have already accumulated some on a low price. you must not wait until halving before buying, what if the halving happens in a different way as Bitcoiners did not speculate?  If it did not happen in the speculated period.   And it happens that you did not even buy at that very low price before the halving.

[MainIbem]

I want to know when exactly to buy bitcoin since I don't want to use the DCA system in this purchase. Will market see anything below $20k again?

If I were you I would used this very moment to buy hold some bitcoin since bull run is around the corner and there is every possibility of the market not seeing anything below 20k again. So i will advise you buy and hold now don't wait till getting to next bitcoin halving before holding some reasonable amount of bitcoin, i came across some post where they are saying of not buying bitcoin when it was around 17k plus they are waiting for such opportunity to come again to buy but there is no chance.
In essence do not wait for the market dropping to your targeted prices before holding.

[wiss19]

You shouldn't specifically wait for the month or the week before the halving to make your purchase, you should get a much better price than that if you buy earlier, I'm pretty sure that Bitcoin will provide everyone with the intention to buy more a vital opportunity soon, and it might be the last chance if one wants to buy and then we will be in the bull market.

So if you want to buy one off and don't want to do DCA, you should probably not aim for that specific month or week and should just have an eye on the market and you will see the opportunity probably very soon.

[adaseb]

You can pretty much buy bitcoin anytime, DCA or not. The only time you shouldn't be going "all-in" is when its breaking and making new ATHs and you got celebrities and everyone pretty much talking about it. Pretty much what happened when we were at $50K last year. Everyone I knew was talking about bitcoin. You would go into an Uber and the driver was talking about how he put all his savings into it because its going to $100,000.

When that happens you shouldn't put all your money into it because it'll be the top. This is exactly what happened when we were at $69K, and same in 2017 when we were at $20K and also same in 2013 when we broke $1K. When there is an exponential move, you need to be prepared its going to be the near top and avoid investing then. Aside from that, buy bitcoin anytime.

[darewaller]

Bitcoin next halving will happen in the 1st quarter of the year 2024, which means by this time next year. People that have witnessed halving and its bull run. Please, I want to know if;

• Bull run happens few months or weeks to halving
• Or it happens few weeks or months after halving
• Or it happens simultaneously in the week or month of halving

I want to know when exactly to buy bitcoin since I don't want to use the DCA system in this purchase. Will market see anything below $20k again?

According to the flow of the price this quarter, we will likely see a bull run before this year ends but it will continue till next year so if you don't have a Bitcoin with you, you better buy one now or a portion of it, if you are poor. I don't think we can fall below $20k so don't hope about it as you will only get disappointed.

The lowest that we can get for now is 25 to 26k dollars but you can start buying today as the price is already at $27k. The first two prices that I mentioned are only my estimation and still not guarantee to happen. May I know why you don't want to use the DCA system when everyone is using it? It's a good system dude and it's twice better than waiting for a dip or bottom price.

[DiMarxist]

Bitcoin price will increase as people won't what to miss out thinking the price will pump high immediately the halving is over. After the halving, a correction in price will happen and people will get disappointed as Bitcoin wouldn't pump as they expected and also the corrections happens as a result of traders taking profits, if you want to buy, buy now and hold bitcoin since bull trend run is near infact we are in bull run, because I don't think the price will go to low as $20k. Next year will make it 4th halving, So don't wait till getting to the next bitcoin halving before holding some reasonable amount of bitcoin.

[goaldigger]

Look at history of the price, usually the hype will start a few months before the halving and will start go sideways during the halving period, you should be more concern after the halving because that is the time where momentum get’s more active. There might be changes though as the market becomes more volatile, if I were you start buying some now while the price is still cheap, there is no need to wait for the halving before you prepare, start doing it now the early the better.

[uchegod-21]

Bitcoin next halving will happen in the 1st quarter of the year 2024, which means by this time next year. People that have witnessed halving and its bull run. Please, I want to know if;

• Bull run happens few months or weeks to halving
• Or it happens few weeks or months after halving
• Or it happens simultaneously in the week or month of halving

I want to know when exactly to buy bitcoin since I don't want to use the DCA system in this purchase. Will market see anything below $20k again?

Judging from pasted experience, we usually have two types of fomo, the first fomo happens few weeks to the halving date, Bitcoin price will increase as people won't what to miss out thinking the price will pump high immediately the halving is over. Usually projects tends to pump towards an event date in the cryptocurrency market and Bitcoin itself is no exception.

After the halving, a correction in price happens as people get disappointed as Bitcoin wouldn't pump as they expected and also the corrections happens as a result of traders taking profits for the gains they have made leading to the halving date. The real bull market starts a year after the halving which is 2025.

This is my first time of hearing this version of story. It sounds interesting and practical. It looks like what has happened before or what came out of experience. I think I will go with this in one aspect. But since I cannot actually wait till 2025, I would follow the advice of people here even when they said it is not an investment advice.
I will continue to be active here, I believe as the market continues to hover, it will be getting clearer on what actually will happen during or after the halving.

[savetheFORUM]

Bitcoin price will increase as people won't what to miss out thinking the price will pump high immediately the halving is over. After the halving, a correction in price will happen and people will get disappointed as Bitcoin wouldn't pump as they expected and also the corrections happens as a result of traders taking profits, if you want to buy, buy now and hold bitcoin since bull trend run is near infact we are in bull run, because I don't think the price will go to low as $20k. Next year will make it 4th halving, So don't wait till getting to the next bitcoin halving before holding some reasonable amount of bitcoin.

Bitcoin is having a correction at the moment, it went above $30k, and even hit $31k once but couldn't hold it there and is already back to $27k by now and still declining. So basically, we can't be sure if the price will get back to $20k or not, but it's guaranteed that there will be better prices for those who are waiting to buy more.

Halving might give a boost to the price but it's not actually the reason why Bitcoin will get into a bull cycle. We might be in the bull run even before the halving and when the halving reaches, the price might get a bit of a boost from that point.

[m2017]

Bitcoin next halving will happen in the 1st quarter of the year 2024, which means by this time next year. People that have witnessed halving and its bull run. Please, I want to know if;

• Bull run happens few months or weeks to halving
• Or it happens few weeks or months after halving
• Or it happens simultaneously in the week or month of halving

I want to know when exactly to buy bitcoin since I don't want to use the DCA system in this purchase. Will market see anything below $20k again?

We all on this forum want answers to your questions.

The problem is that NOBODY knows in what scenario events will develop after the halving. If someone says they know, don't believe them.

Maybe stop asking questions, the answers to which, in principle, can not be obtained?

Man. Its 1 min google search:


https://www.coinmama.com/blog/the-bitcoin-halving-a-history/

Just type "BTC halvings on bitcoin chart" in google search, and you will find a lot of such charts.

But to be honest, BTC halving is a bit of an overrated singal to buy. Adoption and economic turmoil are having a much stronger impact on the price than 4th halving.

BTC charts you will get, but absolutely it doesn't mean anything. There are no guarantees that the real chart will be just like that. You are not so naive as to believe the charts from Google, right? Even more so, to use this information for investment.

[YOSHIE]

I want to know when exactly to buy bitcoin since I don't want to use the DCA system in this purchase. Will market see anything below $20k again?

I've seen and heard conversations of investors or crypto experts about speculation and halving of Bitcoin from time to time.

There are two speculations that are often used by current Bitcoin investors/buyers to target Bitcoin halving in the future.
1. If they want to buy Bitcoin, they don't rely on speculation, they start to focus on buying Bitcoin one year after the halving happened, they don't care about Bitcoin today $ 20k tomorrow $ 25k, their main goal is to buy and target the next halving.
they believe, after one year the price of Bitcoin has been at its lowest point.
2. Those who want to buy Bitcoin are always guided by data, statistics, crypto markets from various sources to start buying Bitcoin.
This second method, they think there is a time to buy Bitcoin at the right time and at the wrong time, but they are only guided by speculators.

Of the two things that I told you, of course you can think now, the first way you can buy Bitcoin for the halving is coming and the second way maybe now you have to research speculation in depth again, maybe now Bitcoin is already in a bear market orwant to go to the bull market.

The choice is yours, sure the first path buy now and not sure choose the second path, remember we never know what will happen to the crypto or Bitcoin market in the future, belief in yourself that leads someone to success.