Important update on Bitcoin. Why is it falling? Will it go lower?

[crypticj]

Hello guys!

Could of days ago I wrote a post while Bitcoin was going up that it's a bad time to buy it and it will go down because of the macroeconomic factors. And now, could of days after, bitcoin is really falling.
So I want to explain why and remind you of what you can expect next.

So while bitcoin was pumping, some people were hesitating if they should buy bitcoin right now, but for me, it was pretty obvious that crypto winter is NOT over. It's not that I'm really smart of something, I just try to ignore all this hype that comes from Bitcoin going up 1-2k. I just follow the same signals for the last half a year.

So first of all, I want to recommend staying skeptical about people saying that bitcoin will keep pumping without any visible reasons. And also try to ignore FOMO. You won't miss anything and you still have a lot of time to buy bitcoin at a good price.

So that being said, I want to share my thoughts on what to expect from Bitcoin next.
My predictions have not changed, I still think that Bitcoin will fall or stagnate for the next half a year. It's all connected to the economic crises that are still happening in the US.
I still think that the best signals to watch are FED actions and interest rates. When FED will start cutting them, I think it would be a good time to buy crypto.

There are some speculations that interest rates will soon go down, but I don't really see a strong reason for that. We still see that core inflation is high so FED still needs to push more to lower it. So we probably see another 0.25% raise at the next FED meeting. And after that, there is a possibility that they will start cutting them in Q4 of 2023.
But I think it's pretty early to assume that, so lest just keep watching inflation reports.

I wish everyone a nice week. Stay safe.

[franky1]

pumps are never 100% vertical up
they are always stepping stones

     /\               /\
 /\/          /\__/
/            /

many people that bought in the $15.5k range are happy to have sold at a near 2x($31k) which has caused a resistance to go up further sooner
however what you also need to realise is that the hashrate competition has risen since 6 months ago meaning that $15k bottom is now moved up too. the most efficient miners on the planet(economic bottom value) is now higher than last years $15k bottom
short term average estimates are a $20k bottom(as long as hashrate stays at or above 350exa)

so if price does go down from todays price, it wont go down all the way to last years bottom because no one at todays bottom is acquiring bitcoin for last years bottom, thus no one would want to sell for a loss to get it back to last years bottom

[hugeblack]

If the price increases or decreases by 10%, it is considered that the price has decreased. The price of bitcoin is known to fluctuate, and the change from the price of 30,000 to 27,000 is not a drastic change if we take into account all the recent rises.

Therefore, even if the price drops, it still represents a golden opportunity for those who want long-term construction, because the possibility that we will be above 35 thousand after six months is very high.

And the rest of the reasons you mentioned do not directly affect the price.

[imamusma]

If the price increases or decreases by 10%, it is considered that the price has decreased. The price of bitcoin is known to fluctuate, and the change from the price of 30,000 to 27,000 is not a drastic change if we take into account all the recent rises.

Therefore, even if the price drops, it still represents a golden opportunity for those who want long-term construction, because the possibility that we will be above 35 thousand after six months is very high.

And the rest of the reasons you mentioned do not directly affect the price.

You are right, the volatility of the bitcoin price is a normal and the percentage only depends on how well and how badly the traders react in the market. If the trader reacts positively then of course the price will go up, but if the trader faces it in panic then of course the price tends to fall.

I agree that the correction in the bitcoin price that occurred during April is normal case after the market started to recover since January 2023. It is impossible for the price to continue rising without stumbling (correction) to find new support. Also this correction was a lesson that it is not normal to expect price to always go one way even during recovery, this is a perfect opportunity for anyone looking to buy at lower prices.

[CryptoBuds]

In your topics, you always include the macroeconomic situation in your prediction, in your opinion, bitcoin is not rising due to Fed rate hike, and the world economy is still in crisis...I will agree partly because bitcoin is still influenced by the world economic situation, but saying bitcoin rises or falls entirely depends on the Fed is not true. Interest rates are currently still high, and the Fed also added 0.25% in March, bringing the total rate to 4.75%. But can you explain to me, why bitcoin is still going up from 15k to 30k despite interest still being high? Bitcoin is unpredictable, it can still rise no matter what the Fed does.

[Patrol69]

It's getting very difficult for me to make a decision at this point. Because I bought bitcoins in few steps. I still have some profit from buying bitcoins in the first step but I lost the investment in the last step. If I sell my bitcoins with all the steps together, I still won't lose. But I don't know what should I do at this time should I sell my bitcoins or wait. But wait how beautiful the results can be. Big changes in the market are noticeable instead of one day. If it goes down like this I will lose a lot of money from Bitcoin. After reading many articles, I can't find any specific information about when the market will turn positive again.

[LocalString]

Falling? Not that long ago it was at 15k and now look at is.

If you've been in this space for awhile then you know this is nothing and it's very rare that outside news effects the cycle. Without fail BTC every cycle has lost between 70%-90% of its value, then accumulation starts then eventually the pump that restarts the bull market begins on top of that there still hasn't been a bull market where we don't go above ATH. It's almost like its "programmed in".

After being in this space for 11 years its become very predictable to read. The only factor BTC hasn't endured is an actual recession, not "covid" recession but a 2008 level recession and with BTC being so tied to stocks it will be a very interesting time, personally I don't think it will start "depegging" from this standard like all the die hards want.

[Edwardard]

I don't think we should worry about the most recent correction until the price falls below 25k. It is understandable that most of the ppl started selling off after we hit above the pyscological price 30k.

When FED will start cutting them, I think it would be a good time to buy crypto.

This strategy won't play imo because everyone knows about it. If you are counting on this, you wouldn't catch the move from ~15k to ~30k since the FED never began to cut rates.

[KiaKia]

It's a 50/50 chance where Bitcoin is headed, no one can really say for sure, but I don't mind seeing Bitcoin at a more lower price than what it is right now, because the opportunity of getting more coins still flows through me.

I have some stablecoins in my wallet that I want to use to take advantage of the market, I am only waiting for a better opportunity, not those 15% decrease in price, if Bitcoin can go down to 20k once again it will be a wonderful buying opportunity again.

At the same time, I don't want to keep waiting and waiting, because it will become too late to buy at any moment, those who are waiting for the FED to start cutting rates down don't know that it will be too late already if this happens. 

[pooya87]

Bitcoin went from $15k to $31k and now it is only slightly lower than $30k level. This trend is now what you have been trying to say it is. It is not "crypto winter" and bitcoin wasn't "pumping" when it went up as it is not "dumping" now that it has came down a little.

In any case there are two main reasons for this recent "tiny" drop, the main one is the fact that price failed to go any higher and short term traders are pulling out their profit trying to gain another entry at a lower price to make more profit.

It is also because of the ongoing recession that I've been talking about over the past year. People simply have not enough money to invest and they also are forced to sell whatever assets they have to make a living. Hence the sell pressure.
You can see this in all markets and also in the society. For example check out how the number of looting of supermarket, shops, grocery stores, etc. has skyrocketed inside United States over the past couple of months.

[Lucius]

The OP is some kind of FED troll, because he is so deeply involved in them that he can't see anything else, and that's why he writes the same nonsense every week. There is nothing important in this thread, especially compared to everything that the OP has been posting in the last few weeks.

Hello everyone.
As you can see, bitcoin is going down and I believe that it will keep falling.
As I explained in my last posts, this Bitcoin rise wasn't sustainable. There are literally no reasons for Bitcoin to go up now.

So I want to remain you guys again that right now is not the time to buy bitcoin.
Inflation is still high, interest rates are still getting higher, FED is not planning to stop any time soon, and the economy is suffering. All these reasons won't let Bitcoin rise from the ashes YET. But I believe we will see the end of it this year, probably in Q4.

So I recommend holding on to your cash/stablecoins right now and waiting for the signals to buy Bitcoin.
And as always, the best signals to look for: FED start cutting rates. When this will happen, it will mean that economy will start recovering soon so it's a great time to buy anything you want before crypto and the stock market will go up.

Have a nice day and take care.

[cheezcarls]

Hello guys!

Could of days ago I wrote a post while Bitcoin was going up that it's a bad time to buy it and it will go down because of the macroeconomic factors. And now, could of days after, bitcoin is really falling.
So I want to explain why and remind you of what you can expect next.

So while bitcoin was pumping, some people were hesitating if they should buy bitcoin right now, but for me, it was pretty obvious that crypto winter is NOT over. It's not that I'm really smart of something, I just try to ignore all this hype that comes from Bitcoin going up 1-2k. I just follow the same signals for the last half a year.

So first of all, I want to recommend staying skeptical about people saying that bitcoin will keep pumping without any visible reasons. And also try to ignore FOMO. You won't miss anything and you still have a lot of time to buy bitcoin at a good price.

So that being said, I want to share my thoughts on what to expect from Bitcoin next.
My predictions have not changed, I still think that Bitcoin will fall or stagnate for the next half a year. It's all connected to the economic crises that are still happening in the US.
I still think that the best signals to watch are FED actions and interest rates. When FED will start cutting them, I think it would be a good time to buy crypto.

There are some speculations that interest rates will soon go down, but I don't really see a strong reason for that. We still see that core inflation is high so FED still needs to push more to lower it. So we probably see another 0.25% raise at the next FED meeting. And after that, there is a possibility that they will start cutting them in Q4 of 2023.
But I think it's pretty early to assume that, so lest just keep watching inflation reports.

I wish everyone a nice week. Stay safe.

First of all, you sounded like a financial or investment advisor because of your statement like “bad time to buy Bitcoin”, etc., coz’ you’re trying to tell the world that you want us not to buy Bitcoin as of this time. That’s really a financial or investment advice statement to me, which is something that I didn’t like at all.

The truth is that there is no “bad time” and “good time” to buy Bitcoin. Coz’ there’s no perfect timing. Even the so-called pros of crypto trading aren’t perfect in their TAs either.

The decisions would be entirely on our own instincts and not listening to the so-called “financial or investment advisors”. You’re not the one who decides for us. The future is in our hands. No disrespect. 

[dansus021]

Question like this is always exist  But yeah correction is needed to make the market healthy.

Will it go lower no one knows but there is some indicator that is already said it the recovery phase or entry at the phase of accumulation zone, and some said the market is not bottomed out and bear is continue.

But we can really precise predict the market unless you have some power to see a future

[Obito]

Won't bitcoin go much higher when the economy of USA tank? Afaik, when the dollar weakens, bitcoin gets stronger? I haven't seen anyone predict that bitcoin will go down much lower in the coming months do this is a refresher to me. There's no exact prediction but we have to be ready for what's happening next, going up or going down.

[DeathAngel]

So many bitcoin investors are naive & obvious noobs. Bitcoin goes up, bitcoin goes down. Sometimes we get catalysts for price movements & sometimes we don’t.

People buy & people sell, the market & however million participants we have, dictate the price. The market sentiment changes & price moves, it’s not that deep.

[Smack That Ace]

It's getting very difficult for me to make a decision at this point. Because I bought bitcoins in few steps. I still have some profit from buying bitcoins in the first step but I lost the investment in the last step. If I sell my bitcoins with all the steps together, I still won't lose. But I don't know what should I do at this time should I sell my bitcoins or wait. But wait how beautiful the results can be. Big changes in the market are noticeable instead of one day. If it goes down like this I will lose a lot of money from Bitcoin. After reading many articles, I can't find any specific information about when the market will turn positive again.

Are you a trader or a long-term investor? Because from what you said, it sounds like you are very confused and scared about the short term drop in bitcoin. If you are a holder, I don't see you losing money if bitcoins drop, you haven't sold them yet, how can it be called a loss? And why don't you just keep buying when it's down and hold until the real bull season comes?
I'm having the opposite feeling as you, I'm excited to see bitcoin drop because I'm waiting for that to happen to accumulate more bitcoins. Bitcoin price decrease is a good thing, why are many investors afraid of that happening?

[Stalker22]

But @crypticj, you have been saying the same thing for months, and Bitcoin keeps going up. It appears that your predictions have been consistently wrong, and it is clear that you have no idea what you are talking about. Why repeat the same thing over and over again?

[MainIbem]

Do you expect the market to always remains bull all time? If you must know bitcoin doesn't function that way and must be waving (unstable) for it to maintain it's function as a digital currency, maybe if you wanted a currency that would be stable you could have purchased the USD and store in your address for the value to keep maintaining it's standard. Bitcoin is being programed for up and down movements in other to complete it's principle of being so volatile, hence any one investing should know all this and have it at the center of their hearts that the volatility of bitcoin can cause a sudden drop or sudden increase.

[serjent05]

So that being said, I want to share my thoughts on what to expect from Bitcoin next.
My predictions have not changed, I still think that Bitcoin will fall or stagnate for the next half a year. It's all connected to the economic crises that are still happening in the US.
I still think that the best signals to watch are FED actions and interest rates. When FED will start cutting them, I think it would be a good time to buy crypto.

Sorry to tell you that the world isn't just the US.  So Bitcoin does not rely on the US economy alone.  There are lots of countries in the world where when put together is far more than the weight of the US economy.  So basically, the US recession effect on Bitcoin price can be easily countered by other factors such as Bitcoin adoption to other countries, economic growth of other country while US economy is declining.  There are lots of factors that can neutralize the US economic decline effect on Bitcoin.  I believe we should widen our horizon and not limit ourselves only on the things that is happening in the US of A.

The current price decline is possibly caused by people cashing out.  It is normal if you happen to double or gain 50% of your investment.  That is what others called, securing the profit.  Besides, this kind of movement is normal so we shouldn't make a big issue about it.  Going sideway is also a normal event for Bitcoin market too,  that is also one indicators of accumulation and possible market transition.

[The Cryptovator]

The basic premise is that pumps lead to corrections and vice versa, and this pattern has repeated itself consistently in Bitcoin's history. When Bitcoin remains stable for a few days, there is a heightened risk of significant movement in either direction. If Bitcoin jumps in value, it is likely to experience a subsequent dump, and if it dumps, it is likely to experience a subsequent pump. This is why Bitcoin is considered a highly volatile cryptocurrency. Nevertheless, long-term holders need not fear, as they have historically seen gains. Patience is required, but the rewards are often substantial.