Will April be a red month?

[dragonvslinux]

Why do I always rely on this website when seeking a prediction?  
It seems it is near to accurate results and based on their forecast, this month seems a Bitcoin correction price until the month of May.

Edit: I found archives of that website's predictions from 2017-2019 which were completely wrong  

Then notably by end of 2017 these mildly bullish forecasts changed to ultra-bullish, predicting $45K by end of 2018. The predictions in 2021 weren't much better either

*Was totally right about this statement, the forecast from February this year was for sub $10K

Ohh I see, so they eventually change their forecast per month maybe.
I have been following this site for how many years when predicting the market but only for a reference not seriously believing in them.

This was what I also noticed, every time I open it and seek the answer to my prediction it changed.
Anyway, thanks for the clarifications.

Lol, you're welcome. It makes sense they change their predictions if price changes, but this is also why trying to predict 3 years into the future for Bitcoin is incredibly difficult, especially ignoring it's cycles.

I imagine it's some sort of algorithmic forecasting method, but one that completely overlooks Bitcoin's 4 year cycles it seems. For example if Bitcoin has been going down for a year, the prediction for the next 3 years are bearish. Likewise if Bitcoin has been going up for a year, the prediction for the next 3 years become bullish. If price has consolidated for a year, then sideways is forecasted for next 3 years. It's therefore completely unreliable, even if potentially somewhat accurate for other markets that don't have similar cycles to Bitcoin.


As an update for this thread, the Monthly candle has now flipped green again after a strong move above $28.5K. It's starting to look more like a consolidation candle again:

[Strongkored]

the market is still red in terms of 7 days percentage but if we will look in daily base? starting today I can see that there are lights of greens



this same thing happened before the price spikes to above 30k .
but of course I am not holding now that it will continue increasing because I'm ready and willing to wait at least till next year or the following one that dates 2025.

This very unexpected movement for a few hours made all terms green 1h 24h and 7 days, maybe many were surprised by the increase because yesterday was still quite calm in the price range of $27,000-$27,500, then midnight past $28,000 and now it's $29,+++, it is very likely that April will close in the $30,000-$35,000 range.
But this hasn't entered the bullish stage in my opinion because before the halving Bitcoin has never made a new ATH, but after the halving it will form a new ATH, but if BTC returns to follow a 4-year cycle otherwise it might be disappointing or even more surprising for the holder.

[Zanab247]

Since the price of BTC is unpredictable, anything can happen in this month of April that will make the price to reduce to show red light for people to begin to buy and hold for the bull season to come before they can visit the market. April remain few days to end before the month of may will appear which will be a best month people will live to remember because the price of BTC will surely reach $50k next month for people to sell and celebrate. Like the way the Market price is moving from the month of January till this month of April, made many people to believed that this year will be better than last year .

[Razmirraz]

After being stuck at $ 27k, today Bitcoin is trading around $ 29.8k or an increase of 9.1%. Bitcoin's recent upturn towards the April close is expected to continue and the candle works in the green.
Buying pressure continues to increase as the level of trust in banks decreases, customers who withdraw their deposits prefer Bitcoin as a place to store the value of their assets. I expect this condition to be an early sign that it can encourage hopes of a bull run as new investor confidence in Bitcoin grows.

[Nrcewker]

I am thinking in April Bitcoins will rest and struggle in this 29k price segment only. As the resistance and pulls are very strong, hence despite of the effort Bitcoins aren’t going up. If in the mean time, the demand to acquire the coins increases, then only the price will rise. Else we have to see April in a flat line zone. But we should think this as an opportunity, as we will have the option to buy these rare coins in cheap price. Let’s hear what other people’s opinion on this.

[wahyuagung26]

Do you think it will now end in the red, if so by how much?

By looking at the current market conditions and experiencing price increases by a few percent we are more inclined to assume April is a good month for Bitcoin, during April Bitcoin experienced an increase which may have been slow in the form of a small bull although accompanied by a correction that always accompanies it. anyway looking at the chart the move now we feel it's more to a green april, it's not long past the cross Bitcoin is back up above $30k although there has been a bit of a slight downside correction and it's still working its way up the charts

[boyptc]

Personally I think reclaiming $28.5K within a week remains possible

You just nailed it!

We're even back more than $28,500 and that's a quick retrace from bitcoin. We're about to get through $30k once again and I have no idea what's happening with it.

Once bitcoin hits back $30k, there will be an impact again from the mass media and they'll all be reporting that bitcoin is back again to $30k. Many seem still to have no idea what's gonna happen by next year.

And by the end of this month, with a few days left. The development of its price currently is optimistic.

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

Personally I think reclaiming $28.5K within a week remains possible

You just nailed it!

We're even back more than $28,500 and that's a quick retrace from bitcoin. We're about to get through $30k once again and I have no idea what's happening with it.

Once bitcoin hits back $30k, there will be an impact again from the mass media and they'll all be reporting that bitcoin is back again to $30k. Many seem still to have no idea what's gonna happen by next year.

And by the end of this month, with a few days left. The development of its price currently is optimistic.

And yet we are down again? The last price that I saw was $29,500 and I said that we might hit $30k again before the end of the month. But I don't know what happen, the price nose dived again to $28,230 and it seems there's a lot of liquidation going on?

The only news that I read was that there was one bank if I'm not mistaken on the brink or bankruptcy or something and that there was a bank run. A massive withdrawal and hinting that those who withdraw might have put their money on bitcoin to push it higher. And as fast as we go to almost $30k, the price goes down hard in the last hours or so back to $28k again.

[Jating]

^^ I think it has something to do with with some very old wallets starting to move again that might cause panic in the market right now. Or maybe the news of Apple removing the bitcoin whitepaper in all of it's updated version. But we will see next, maybe when everything is clear, we will have our own speculation as what is the factors that causes the massive volatile that we have seen in the last 18 hours or so.

And with that, at least we are back to $28k, but it won't be enough to continue our green candle at the end of the month. But we are still ok if we can go to the support line of $28,500 after retested $27k and it's a bit scary to see that nevertheless a clear bounce back for us to reclaim the big support of $28k. Now, we should look forward and see how May will do.

[boyptc]

Personally I think reclaiming $28.5K within a week remains possible

You just nailed it!

We're even back more than $28,500 and that's a quick retrace from bitcoin. We're about to get through $30k once again and I have no idea what's happening with it.

Once bitcoin hits back $30k, there will be an impact again from the mass media and they'll all be reporting that bitcoin is back again to $30k. Many seem still to have no idea what's gonna happen by next year.

And by the end of this month, with a few days left. The development of its price currently is optimistic.

And yet we are down again? The last price that I saw was $29,500 and I said that we might hit $30k again before the end of the month. But I don't know what happen, the price nose dived again to $28,230 and it seems there's a lot of liquidation going on?

The only news that I read was that there was one bank if I'm not mistaken on the brink or bankruptcy or something and that there was a bank run. A massive withdrawal and hinting that those who withdraw might have put their money on bitcoin to push it higher. And as fast as we go to almost $30k, the price goes down hard in the last hours or so back to $28k again.

Phew, that was fast as well.

But that's okay, a few days ago we were sitting around at $26k and if it's down to $28k then that means that we're still in profit. This is just a pull back that has to happen and people need not to panic because this how bitcoin goes around the usual.

What was that bank that's reported that's in the situation that's about to go for its bankruptcy? Honestly, with such news today I really have no idea what to look at but considers these are normal movements.

[STT]

Giant bounce today and fallback, certainly seems there is enough energy in the BTC price action to fuel a neutral to positive return in this month and any forthcoming months.   Overall we do have obstacles so Im not fully bullish personally on this mixture but this general mood of movement is good action despite volatility all these prices have to be traded and confirmed.  None of this BTC price action should be called a negative prospect this year imo.

[Lanatsa]

Giant bounce today and fallback, certainly seems there is enough energy in the BTC price action to fuel a neutral to positive return in this month and any forthcoming months.   Overall we do have obstacles so Im not fully bullish personally on this mixture but it should not be called a negative prospect till year end imo.

We did really have that recent plunge on Bitcoins price which i do believe that this was the reason.

Bitcoin Plunges 7% in an Hour to Under $28,000 as Arkham Sends Erroneous Mt. Gox Alert
Source: https://decrypt.co/138086/bitcoin-plunges-7-in-an-hour-to-under-28000-as-mt-gox-us-gov-wallets-move

The price hit up under 28k but it did really make out some immediate bounceback. I do have those feelings that the recent 30k hit was just a fake off and it really did.
Good thing i didnt make out some long positions once 29k had been able to touched up.

[salad daging]

^^ I think it has something to do with with some very old wallets starting to move again that might cause panic in the market right now. Or maybe the news of Apple removing the bitcoin whitepaper in all of it's updated version. But we will see next, maybe when everything is clear, we will have our own speculation as what is the factors that causes the massive volatile that we have seen in the last 18 hours or so.

There is a lot of sentiment surrounding the price of bitcoin including moving old wallets moving BTC to another wallet instead it will be dumped into the market and it could also cause panic to cause a downturn, but about Apple deleting the bitcoin whitepaper it would not be significantly negative news but still some people when there is FUD there is always concern.

And with that, at least we are back to $28k, but it won't be enough to continue our green candle at the end of the month. But we are still ok if we can go to the support line of $28,500 after retested $27k and it's a bit scary to see that nevertheless a clear bounce back for us to reclaim the big support of $28k. Now, we should look forward and see how May will do.

After a sharp decline in the last few hours but I see that the price is a little bit back at $29K at least there is still a green candle that can bitcoin return to $30K before the end is not this bounce this will be quite positive for me considering the situation is now back in its resistance area.
At least if the April closing price is $30k then in early May we will see even more positive movements.

[kotajikikox]

the votes seemingly divided into 3 completely, though big votes against 2 but for me this means one thing that
Bitcointalk forum members are not believing with each others views.
and being RED MONTH ? not sure but my votes stands to YES



but what I want to hear is about the next month of May in which there are some says it will be a great month for bitcoin .

[rodskee]

Nothing is certain yet, April we passed the major psychological pressure zone at $30k which created a big momentum, it is no longer a modest gain from the $15k time in the market- bear.  It has completely broken out and established a recovery trend, so far at $27k I still think a trend consolidation and consolidation cycle is positive.  I guess we are likely to stick to the $30k target through the end of April.

But it only started like that and the coming weeks remains reddish and yes it is now , while it recovers now to almost 29k , still this is a red market to count from that 30+ value.
but I voted differently as I cannot distinguish which one so yeah will remain not sure.
but once the price arise again to 30k and up? then I will believe that there are the coming bull if this comes to reality.
though the votes are up to Yes , remember that this volatile market keeps changing each time , there is no constant movement for specific date.
though Red or Green? market will stabilize in the soonest time as we are closing to Bull market from halving effect.

[moneystery]

Not too sure that this month will be a red month because we know that until now there has not been any news that is negative enough which has a significant impact on crypto price movements. Only news about inflation and rumors of interest rate hikes are still now the scourge that haunts crypto prices.

Hopefully this will last until the end of the month, because to be honest, sideways like this are better than full red.

[Natalim]

For me, April ain't a bad month in crypto as the market performing well.
With all the dumps that we see, it was not that worse and the rise is still huge compared to it. But honestly, I wasn't expecting much this month, at least we reach $30k is an indication that the following months will show more great pumps. However, I was looking huge changes in the 3rd and 4th quarters of this year. Perhaps, I was expecting it as the halving is about to commence next year.

[G_Besar]

Not too sure that this month will be a red month because we know that until now there has not been any news that is negative enough which has a significant impact on crypto price movements. Only news about inflation and rumors of interest rate hikes are still now the scourge that haunts crypto prices.

Inflation and rumors of rising interest rates also have little effect on the crypto space and their prices in the market because after a short correction, Bitcoin and some other cryptocurrencies can still increase in a matter of days so the market is not always in the red. Apart from that, there is some other good news that might still influence the crypto and Bitcoin space to stay at the current price so that sometimes the movement is not sideways, but upwards.

Hopefully this will last until the end of the month, because to be honest, sideways like this are better than full red.

Sideways movement in the price of Bitcoin is indeed better than declining more, because this sideways movement can still keep prices in a better position in the market so that many people will not experience much loss.

[KiaKia]

Maybe or maybe not, we need to close this monthly candle at precisely 29,000$ or we will start tumbling into the last resistance support of 16,000$, call me mad but this is what I am seeing on my own chart.

It doesn't matter much to me, I am not bothered by the price action of Bitcoin this month ot the next because my plan is all for 2025 or when Bitcoin reach a new all time high, so if 16k makes a return I will gladly take it as another good flash sales that won't last long.

I have been into crypto for far too long, bear market is where the opportunities are made and bull market is where you reap all what you sow.

[reagansimms]

Not too sure that this month will be a red month because we know that until now there has not been any news that is negative enough which has a significant impact on crypto price movements. Only news about inflation and rumors of interest rate hikes are still now the scourge that haunts crypto prices.

Inflation and rumors of rising interest rates also have little effect on the crypto space and their prices in the market because after a short correction, Bitcoin and some other cryptocurrencies can still increase in a matter of days so the market is not always in the red. Apart from that, there is some other good news that might still influence the crypto and Bitcoin space to stay at the current price so that sometimes the movement is not sideways, but upwards.

Another good news is due to the lack of market confidence in banks, especially First Republic Bank (FRC), which makes Bitcoin with the largest capitalization experience strengthening. After experiencing a small correction that had dropped to the $27k level, Bitcoin has experienced a bounce that has made its price slowly increase again. Bitcoin has taken steps to go up, now its movement has started to improve gradually, hopefully this is a potentially bullish trend for Bitcoin.