Thinking about what caused the flash crash?

[Stedsm]

I guess I've got the reason to this question.

What happened?
BTC crashed right from $30k to ~$27200 and many traders got liquidated in just a matter of hours (mostly the recent 2 hours during which the dump took place).

When?
April 26, 2023

https://www.blockchain.com/explorer/addresses/btc/1FeexV6bAHb8ybZjqQMjJrcCrHGW9sb6uF

The wallet of the Mt. Gox hacker ☝️
Please see into it, it has been transacting big since last week and it looks like this wallet, being under the possession of US Government or Mt Gox itself, has now been moving the funds.
Either this caused panic, or they sent the coins to some of the traders who lost their btc during the hack, and the traders might be causing this dump.

One more thing to watch for:
DXY moving upwards will be the continuation for BTC to dump more.

[Nwada001]

According to https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/address/1FeexV6bAHb8ybZjqQMjJrcCrHGW9sb6uF
There has only been frequent deposits into the Mt. Gox address, and no spending has been made on that address, unless I read it wrong. In the last few hours, the market was really recovering real quick, which made me think it was part of a price correction and that it was just the
beginning, and we might see more of the green market.

There is definitely something else behind this price movement today; the price moved from 27k to 30k and is now back to 28k+, which I believe we might see again this night.
Maybe this could be a result of the tax month coming to an end, according to Franky1 calculation.

The bitcoin market might experience more dumps if that address actually starts selling those holdings, which will result in another panic, which caused a similar panic when the Fed gave an order to liquidate the 50,000 from a few weeks ago.

[STT]

Its interesting action and very volatile but I dont take it too seriously in terms of a wider direction, mostly its true since year start we have been bullish.  Nothing has changed my mind on that so far, a flat line on this weeks trade could have been taken as a negative this flash up/down move isnt imo.   As always BTC is volatile is basically the reason why alot of people get frightened off but why anyone on this forum should be more optimistic knowing its not really out of line with what we've already seen occur even during positive years.  
     Fast up and fast down explains it mostly, speculators will front run any possibility to trade towards 30k and it was already a possible price objective after a fairly full pullback to the 50 day moving average.   The details of Mt.gox or similar flows just enables selling but people fast or day trading will always cash out their leveraged trade to avoid losing their profits.

[OgNasty]

It seemed to me like it was just traders trying to get ahead of the MtGox situation. Whatever it was, it seems like that volume was swallowed up by buyers as it has nearly recovered all the way back to $30K. That shows there is still a ton of demand for Bitcoin at these levels so I wouldn’t call an end to this rally just yet.

[Yaunfitda]

It seemed to me like it was just traders trying to get ahead of the MtGox situation. Whatever it was, it seems like that volume was swallowed up by buyers as it has nearly recovered all the way back to $30K. That shows there is still a ton of demand for Bitcoin at these levels so I wouldn’t call an end to this rally just yet.

And checking the price right now? it bounce back beautifully to $29k and I wouldn't be surprised that we might see $20k at the end of the month. Maybe there is some entities who likely wants to manipulate the price to crash and then there are traders who just fall for it and push the sell button, hence the nosedived to $28k.

So overnight, it's going back and forth, and as you have said, the demands are still there, very high despite the market acting weird in the last 24 hours.

And it's interesting to follow this news:

First Republic Bank's (FRC.N) market value plunged again on Wednesday as investors waited to see if it would be able to find buyers for assets and engineer a turnaround without government support.

In a brutal sell-off, the bank's market capitalization briefly sank as much as 41% to about $888 million and the first time under $1 billion, a far cry from its peak of more than $40 billion in November 2021. It closed around $1.1 billion.

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/first-republic-bank-shares-plummet-day-after-hitting-record-low-2023-04-26/

It's interesting because of bitcoin's narrative, and we might see more investors putting their money on the market because of the continuing banking crisis.

[bbc.reporter]

@Stedsm. According to some people in social media, it is being blamed on the fake alert from Arkham Intelligence. The alert had the information that the American government has begun dumping the coins from the Mtgox hack. We cannot be certain if this caused the flash crash, however, the dump occured 6 minutes before Arkham Intelligence's fake alert. Head shaking because a whale can short sell on the pump, leak the fake alert then have the fake alert released by Arkham Intelligence. Am I being too skeptical? I might be but after FTX, after Luna, after 3AC, we can assume that anything is very much possible with the hustlers of the cryptospace.

[adaseb]

Yes it was the false Arkham alert. Basically saying that the USG and MtGox coins are being dumped on the markets. And it’s pretty crazy how it happened so far. I saw the chart and assumed maybe Binance got hacked or something to pull this off.

Then a few minutes later it was a false alarm and the market pretty much rallied back. However if you look at the OI something like 15% of all positions were wiped in that move. Most longs are liquidated and we might head up from here.

[Ludmilla_rose1995]

the price movement of bitcoin is quite unstable in the coming months due to global economic uncertainty and people who tend to play it safe. this volatile bitcoin position is likely to persist until the end of this year and only then will we arrive at a bullrun.

[pawel7777]

It seemed to me like it was just traders trying to get ahead of the MtGox situation. Whatever it was, it seems like that volume was swallowed up by buyers as it has nearly recovered all the way back to $30K. That shows there is still a ton of demand for Bitcoin at these levels so I wouldn’t call an end to this rally just yet.

The volume seems to be picking up as well, which is always a good sign.

Yes it was the false Arkham alert. Basically saying that the USG and MtGox coins are being dumped on the markets.

Arkham denies it saying the alert was sent when the market was already 6% down. I'm sure this could be verified if we know the exact time it was sent.
They also say that there was no error in that alert and that it was accurate.
https://cryptoslate.com/intelligence-platform-arkham-sent-incorrect-bitcoin-alert-coinciding-with-6-crash/
https://twitter.com/ArkhamIntel/status/1651366459547713537

[Yamane_Keto]

BTC crashed right from $30k to ~$27200 and many traders got liquidated in just a matter of hours (mostly the recent 2 hours during which the dump took place).

For the definition of BTC crashed to be correct, the price must drop by more than 10% in a short time and downward trend continues, which did not happen, because the price and within less than 24 hours had regained the same previous prices.

The simplest technical analysis charts indicate that the support levels are at 26k and the resistance levels are at 32k, so the movement is natural within the next support and resistance level and it is not required to be according to a reason or need a reason.

[carlfebz2]

It seemed to me like it was just traders trying to get ahead of the MtGox situation. Whatever it was, it seems like that volume was swallowed up by buyers as it has nearly recovered all the way back to $30K. That shows there is still a ton of demand for Bitcoin at these levels so I wouldn’t call an end to this rally just yet.

The volume seems to be picking up as well, which is always a good sign.

Yup, i was surprised when the price had eventually gone up in a short time after that huge red candle had appeared. No one had anticipated for that kind of sell off and on which this one makes really an unpredictable

market.Just like been said that what matter the most is that the price had eventually gone back up after that some small declines i would say. Getting that -/+2-3k per day movement isnt really that much
nor shocking anymore. Still wondering on why there are people still get surprised whenever they do see up these things? Arent they get used to those days where price could move up this way or they are
really just getting used too on slow pace and gradual increase that we do have today?

 Important thing is that it did really recover which means that 30k might be the new bottom or ground for us to starting to take off. $32-35k is what we are projecting and if ever the resistances
above would be breaking out then we might be seeing 40k soon but of course it would be better not to make yourself get hyped on, because it would really be just be making
your desperate on whatever decisions you would be taking.

[ginsan]

Yes it was the false Arkham alert. Basically saying that the USG and MtGox coins are being dumped on the markets. And it’s pretty crazy how it happened so far. I saw the chart and assumed maybe Binance got hacked or something to pull this off.

Then a few minutes later it was a false alarm and the market pretty much rallied back. However if you look at the OI something like 15% of all positions were wiped in that move. Most longs are liquidated and we might head up from here.

Everyone is afraid and they really throw it away quickly even just a matter of hours the red candle becomes a meaning that sucks for those who are liquidated. The situation looks strange after unclear information circulates on social media. I believe flash crashes are heart wrenching and I don't want to see this again.

Yes, since the false alarm was issued, the market turmoil changed instantly which made the market return strong in the percentage of new entrants with a level of confidence to take advantage of this moment. well I agree with OGNasty that this is a rally that has not stopped where people want to buy under $30k during the market situation that has not stabilized enough.

[bbc.reporter]

It seemed to me like it was just traders trying to get ahead of the MtGox situation. Whatever it was, it seems like that volume was swallowed up by buyers as it has nearly recovered all the way back to $30K. That shows there is still a ton of demand for Bitcoin at these levels so I wouldn’t call an end to this rally just yet.

The volume seems to be picking up as well, which is always a good sign.

Yes it was the false Arkham alert. Basically saying that the USG and MtGox coins are being dumped on the markets.

Arkham denies it saying the alert was sent when the market was already 6% down. I'm sure this could be verified if we know the exact time it was sent.
They also say that there was no error in that alert and that it was accurate.
https://cryptoslate.com/intelligence-platform-arkham-sent-incorrect-bitcoin-alert-coinciding-with-6-crash/
https://twitter.com/ArkhamIntel/status/1651366459547713537

Agreed. It appears I also made a mistake. I thought the fake alerts were released 6 minutes after the big dump. It was really after 1 hour after the big dump hehehehe which makes this mistake worse from the perspective of Arkham Intelligence. They should remove Intelligence and call themselves just Arkham.

The flash crash now clearly was caused by traders who were pumping on leverage then were used as exit liquidity by sellers hehehe. There was a rumor that one of the big sellers was Jump Capital.

[dansus021]

I think it have nothing to with your address in my opinion.

but I think the reason there is economic decision in real world government usually the United States but after I look at https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#last-seven-days it seem regular movement no inflation rate or rates decision so it is something else

[crwth]

I think it have nothing to with your address in my opinion.

but I think the reason there is economic decision in real world government usually the United States but after I look at https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#last-seven-days it seem regular movement no inflation rate or rates decision so it is something else

So what you are trying to say is that the reasoning of OP could still have more of an effect in the future if that's not the recent case, based on what you are trying to say, right? What do you think it is? I believe a lot of people are trying to get back or need money and they are selling off now probably because of a need or something? It would be hard to quantify though.

[Strongkored]

the price movement of bitcoin is quite unstable in the coming months due to global economic uncertainty and people who tend to play it safe. this volatile bitcoin position is likely to persist until the end of this year and only then will we arrive at a bullrun.

Can the state of the global economy really affect the price of Bitcoin so quickly? because in my opinion, it is still a question because the global economy has entered a phase of uncertainty since covid started, as well as when there were many predictions about a global recession that would occur this year but the price of Bitcoin actually started to improve, so in my opinion what happened to the price of Bitcoin these few days it's just the actions of the whales taking profits after previously buying at a low price, and the news in the media is just part of the speculators to go back to buying BTC at a cheap price after previously selling and making a profit.

[yhiaali3]

I think these are all rumors. There are no transfers or sales on the Mt.gox platform wallets yet, as I have heard from reliable analysts. The US government did not transfer any bitcoins nor were any bitcoins sent to those affected.

Mostly whales and some market manipulators leaked fake news to cause panic, they succeeded temporarily but bitcoin returned to normal and got rid of the rumors and it is clear that its path will be bullish in the coming period.

[Hamphser]

I think these are all rumors. There are no transfers or sales on the Mt.gox platform wallets yet, as I have heard from reliable analysts. The US government did not transfer any bitcoins nor were any bitcoins sent to those affected.

Mostly whales and some market manipulators leaked fake news to cause panic, they succeeded temporarily but bitcoin returned to normal and got rid of the rumors and it is clear that its path will be bullish in the coming period.

Whats new?

We know that this market is really that unpredictable and there's no way that we could really be able to tell if those news are real or just rumors and this is where we do really need up to verify or research more.
Yes, in s peaking about released Mt.Gox funds, there were no news about that which it is really just that simply a fake news just to make people sell out. We've seen the price had already recovered
and there's no any issues been raised up.

If ever this would really happen where funds would be released out then it would really be making out some significant effect on the price but it would really be just simply be eaten up by
buy orders which it wouldnt really be that shocking anymore as long the demand would be there then it wont really be that something that new thing.
Flash crashes and price recoveries could happen in a short span of time on which it would be not a shocking thing anymore.

[bbc.reporter]

I think it have nothing to with your address in my opinion.

but I think the reason there is economic decision in real world government usually the United States but after I look at https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#last-seven-days it seem regular movement no inflation rate or rates decision so it is something else

We are talking about the pump on bitcoin that occurred on April 26. This was certainly not very closely related to a decision from uncle Jerome. This was a whale that used the pump as exit liquidity hehehe.

Also, if it the Federal Reserve's decisions really affected bitcoin, why is bitcoin going up from $15k? This is almost 100% from the lowest price of 2022.

[Dave1]

I think it have nothing to with your address in my opinion.

but I think the reason there is economic decision in real world government usually the United States but after I look at https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#last-seven-days it seem regular movement no inflation rate or rates decision so it is something else

We are talking about the pump on bitcoin that occurred on April 26. This was certainly not very closely related to a decision from uncle Jerome. This was a whale that used the pump as exit liquidity hehehe.

Also, if it the Federal Reserve's decisions really affected bitcoin, why is bitcoin going up from $15k? This is almost 100% from the lowest price of 2022.

Yeah, get your point, there could be other reasons for the huge pump>>then goes down hard. But maybe the Feds releasing their reports could affect not just the crypto market, but others specially in the US.

But the good thing is that the price crash to $27k, it has bounce back and fourth, and not trading around $28k or maybe we can go $29k again. And this price movement might go on this month of May, sideways until a breakout run.