BTC Sentiment Poll for May

[tokeweed]

There's a saying among old school traders that goes 'sell in May and go away' as historically May is a bad month for trading stocks and commodities.  They take this time to be in the side lines and evaluate what their next move is gonna be for the following month of June and beyond.  

As we're not really pros around these parts, it could be food for thought...  Dunno.  :/

It's looking like it's losing a bit of momentum tho.

[Oshosondy]

Why creating similar thread again after we have started one: Month of May. Bitcoin price guess. Join discussion on the thread instead.

Next time, you do not even need to use search engine, just scroll down the speculation board to know if anyone has posted such a topic before thinking of creating one. Today is the first day of new month, you will see it among the topics that has been created on the first of new month and likely would be at the top of the page one on speculative board.

[Yaunfitda]

Why creating similar thread again after we have started one: Month of May. Bitcoin price guess. Join discussion on the thread instead.

Next time, you do not even need to use search engine, just scroll down the speculation board to know if anyone has posted such a topic before thinking of creating one. Today is the first day of new month, you will see it among the topics that has been created on the first of new month and likely would be at the top of the page one on speculative board.

No offense but it seems that @tokeweed has been creating his own thread every x month and trying to get the sentiments of the members here.

For me I voted for bullish though, although we might have a minor correction in the last 24 hours. And could be trading sideways at the start of this week. Nevertheless, investors now are bullish just like the first 4 months and maybe we can break that $30k price again and then maintain it this May. It's good to see this kind of correction this early so that many can get in and fill their bags. So hopefully, we can reclaim $29k-$30k again.

[uneng]

Yes, May has started as a bad month for Bitcoin, as can already see the price dropping back to the 28,000$'s. But in crypto market we never know if what we are seeing is really what is happening. Whales and speculators gave the tone of pessimism to the market.

That is what they want us to think about the month of May, however, it might be just a trap to deceive investors into selling their holdings, so those same speculators and whales can acquire our coins cheaper and pump BTC again right after.

[dragonvslinux]

Liking this new option for "sideways" in these polls for change, especially since we've seen this type of price movement in February and April so far this year!

Anyhow for this month I voted up, as I still see room for a push to further highs, as we still haven't  quite seen a test towards $32K. I'm also basing this on the +40% increase in January, followed by consolidation in February, then +20% in March, followed by consolidation in April, which is a pattern so far. So taking this simplistic trend and considering a continuation of it, then it'd be a +10% in May into $32K.

Of course the market doesn't always continue in the same manner, even if it has done so for 4 months already, but unless there is a significant change in direction in the coming weeks then I still think price has more room to the upside (even if less than February/April months). I also think price may well re-test $25K before reaching $32K, in order to create a bullish wick on Monthly time-frame.

[Quidat]

Liking this new option for "sideways" in these polls for change, especially since we've seen this type of price movement in February and April so far this year!

Anyhow for this month I voted up, as I still see room for a push to further highs, as we still haven't  quite seen a test towards $32K. I'm also basing this on the +40% increase in January, followed by consolidation in February, then +20% in March, followed by consolidation in April, which is a pattern so far. So taking this simplistic trend and considering a continuation of it, then it'd be a +10% in May into $32K.

Of course the market doesn't always continue in the same manner, even if it has done so for 4 months already, but unless there is a significant change in direction in the coming weeks then I still think price has more room to the upside (even if less than February/April months). I also think price may well re-test $25K before reaching $32K, in order to create a bullish wick on Monthly time-frame.

I did make up some sideways selection based on on the poll but now we are just 1 day of this month May but we do have that recent decrease or decline in price as of this moment.
I did make up some research about on the reason on why we are playing around 28k price which supposedly we would be hovering around 30k but well these kind of movements
arent something that monumental in terms of decline or decrease in price. Having this kind of minus  isnt really that shocking anymore which this is really just that an
ordinary day i would say.

Sentiment for this month of May?

Sell in May and Go Away
This might be having that in correlation?

[rodskee]

It's looking like it's losing a bit of momentum tho.

Well there is a price conversation for May that goes ahead of you posting , yet there is no Poll actually so this thread of yours  is the right thread to speculate .

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5450768.0

I voted for sideways because I truly believe that this month and the coming months will keep doing sideways like what most voters believe .

[dansus021]

I just vote and pretty much my vote like other member this month either on sideaway or downturn but not so much. @25K level is major resistance on previous cycle and now it seems turn into major support.

and if we like Bitcoin Historical Return data provided by CoinGlass - https://www.coinglass.com/today either sideaway low downturn or mini bull

[bittraffic]

 Agree with this sentiment. It seem to be the case with such correction that we have to see the bottom first which could be the 25k. The possibility that it could dip below 25k is high as well for it mat retest that support on 20k in the daily chart.

That could be price to buy. DCAing on 25k and them floor on 20k.

[CarnagexD]

There's a saying among old school traders that goes 'sell in May and go away' as historically May is a bad month for trading stocks and commodities.  They take this time to be in the side lines and evaluate what their next move is gonna be for the following month of June and beyond.  

As we're not really pros around these parts, it could be food for thought...  Dunno.  :/

It's looking like it's losing a bit of momentum tho.

First, ask yourself "What is your role in the market?" are you a long-term investor or are you an active trader?
If you are a long-term investor, then the price going down could probably be a chance for you to DCA and accumulate assets since prices are discounted. If you are an active trader, ou really have to scrutinize if you are in a market condition viable to catch market volatility safe enough to manage your funds and execute your trading system.

You see, there are many ways to skin a cat. 'sell in May and go away' could probably true, but how is it working for you?
The key is not to have the best strategy or approach. The key is To have an strategy that works best specifically to you.

[tokeweed]

^  Nah I'm just here to find out what you guys think in these parts.  There's no right or wrong answer to the poll imho.  We're here to know the current sentiment.  It's not about trying to get the right answer or somewhat 'winning a contest'.

That's why I appreciate dragonvslinux's posts as he just takes what's happening with BTC now and makes educated guesses on what could happen.  It's not about the results, it's about the process and letting the chips fall where they may...  But do have stop losses tho to limit the bleeding if you're trading.

[dragonvslinux]

Liking this new option for "sideways" in these polls for change, especially since we've seen this type of price movement in February and April so far this year!

Anyhow for this month I voted up, as I still see room for a push to further highs, as we still haven't  quite seen a test towards $32K. I'm also basing this on the +40% increase in January, followed by consolidation in February, then +20% in March, followed by consolidation in April, which is a pattern so far. So taking this simplistic trend and considering a continuation of it, then it'd be a +10% in May into $32K.

Of course the market doesn't always continue in the same manner, even if it has done so for 4 months already, but unless there is a significant change in direction in the coming weeks then I still think price has more room to the upside (even if less than February/April months). I also think price may well re-test $25K before reaching $32K, in order to create a bullish wick on Monthly time-frame.

Sentiment for this month of May?

Sell in May and Go Away
This might be having that in correlation?

I've heard this one, but as the data shows it's not that May and the following months is necessarily bullish, but more so neutral & sideways for a few months:

The S&P 500 Index has recorded a cumulative six-month average gain of 6.7% in the period between November to April compared to an average gain of around 2% between May and October.

I also remembering hearing this theory in 2019 when Bitcoin was at around $5K after a months worth of consolidation, but instead it continued to increase up to $14K by June, so not convinced this theory is that reliable for an asset like Bitcoin, even if relatively reliable for traditional markets. In contrast, the S&P did indeed have a correction followed by consolidation in May 2019 until around October.

I'm not suggesting Bitcoin is going to increase by 150% within the coming months like in 2019, but that this may well be the time Bitcoin decouples (further) from stocks and traditional markets if they are to enter a period of consolidation or correction. This decoupling is what could lead Bitcoin to increase again dramatically as investors who flee from stocks take an interest in Bitcoin instead, similar to 2019.

[KiaKia]

This chart is interesting, but why should anyone care about it? Does this mean we should follow the same path? Do you think that's what will happen next? Because I doubt it, many traders on Youtube are using the past market structure of Bitcoin to judge the future of Bitcoin movement.

While this Bitcoin movement is similar to that of 2015, I will not wait for this to occur exactly the same way; instead, I will keep buying Bitcoin every week, at whatever price I find it when weekends come around. In the past, I have failed to target the bottom price for Bitcoin, and that is why I have lost. The answer is no one knows what will happen next, so I prefer to keep buying rather than try to determine what might happen and what might not happen.

[palle11]

There's a saying among old school traders that goes 'sell in May and go away' as historically May is a bad month for trading stocks and commodities.  

I think that was strictly on stock trading and that was because April is the ending of first quarter and companies could open sells of shares but with commodities and cryptocurrency, the story is not the same, it is more of unregulated and open free market to exit or enter at any time.

They take this time to be in the side lines and evaluate what their next move is gonna be for the following month of June and beyond.  

The reason that old school traders then would stay back at this point is because they never understood the DCA but now staying by the side line wouldn't help a pragmatic investor and moreover the risk appetite currently is far from what was in old school traders, they had more fear and less greed. Bitcoin season now in 2023 is not same as in 2015/2017, the pump can happen at any time and the pump has been experienced already this year despite speculation of bear before halving.

[aoluain]

This chart is interesting, but why should anyone care about it? Does this mean we should follow the same path? Do you think that's what will happen next? Because I doubt it, many traders on Youtube are using the past market structure of Bitcoin to judge the future of Bitcoin movement.

While this Bitcoin movement is similar to that of 2015, I will not wait for this to occur exactly the same way; instead, I will keep buying Bitcoin every week, at whatever price I find it when weekends come around. In the past, I have failed to target the bottom price for Bitcoin, and that is why I have lost. The answer is no one knows what will happen next, so I prefer to keep buying rather than try to determine what might happen and what might not happen.

The charts are interesting but many times Bitcoin has broken the expectations based
on previous events and months. They are only a guide or something to base our speculations
on, we have to use something!

The last month I speculated on was March and I based it on the fact that it was a "bad" month
because most years March was a Red one and look what it did this year the opposite! this can be
seen on dansus021's chart

I voted for May to be Green but really its anyones guess.

[Baofeng]

Of course the market doesn't always continue in the same manner, even if it has done so for 4 months already, but unless there is a significant change in direction in the coming weeks then I still think price has more room to the upside (even if less than February/April months). I also think price may well re-test $25K before reaching $32K, in order to create a bullish wick on Monthly time-frame.

That's also the scenario that I personally wanted to see, I mean I'm not bearish on the market, but it seems that in the first 4 months, the price is going on the upside. We need to take a breather and need to see something for the price to retest some kind of levels. Which means going down to $25k and then those who are waiting for a good price will take that opportunity.

And then the price going on the and reaching $32K. That's some pattern that we have seen before, going down and then climbing up more than the previous high. So let's see this kind of scenario and hopefully the market will react positively in the long run or at this the next 20+ days of this month.

[Husires]

There's a saying among old school traders that goes 'sell in May and go away' as historically May is a bad month for trading stocks and commodities.

This is not correct, or at least not true at the level of bitcoin.

This is a map of bitcoin monthly return from the year 2013 to the year 2022, which is a good period to guess what will be in the year 2023.

During the 10 months of May, there were 5 negative and 5 positive months, and the maximum correction in the negative was a decrease of 35%, and on the contrary, for the positive months, more than 3 times, an increase of more than 35%.
May is not bad at all.

[blue Snow]

^  Nah I'm just here to find out what you guys think in these parts.  There's no right or wrong answer to the poll imho.  We're here to know the current sentiment.  It's not about trying to get the right answer or somewhat 'winning a contest'.

Yes, I agree with you,

This chart is interesting, but why should anyone care about it? Does this mean we should follow the same path? Do you think that's what will happen next? Because I doubt it, many traders on Youtube are using the past market structure of Bitcoin to judge the future of Bitcoin movement.

We shouldn't talk about care or not, and we shouldn't think will happen in the next future. but for me, it's just a reference for us to calculate how to take action next. So when I glance at the chart, that looks optimistic to me. It fits perfectly with halving the time that ever happened in the past. That looks suitable and fits when I compare it with 2015 and 2019.

I don't care about charts, if my intuition feel I must entered, I will do that.

[thecodebear]

Think tomorrow the Fed will signal they will stop raising interest rates after this meeting and so investors will stop being scared and we'll probably see more investors move money into Bitcoin this month if that happens. I expect a decent month, getting solidly over $30k, maybe hitting $33k - $34k at some point this month.

[Edwardard]

Think tomorrow the Fed will signal they will stop raising interest rates after this meeting

With just a few hours remaining for the FED to announce its next interest rate decision, its gonna be very interesting to watch the whole market react. However, I do think they will raise rates by 25bps today; should be already priced in by the market. So, a dump followed by a larger pump?