BTC Sentiment Poll for May

[bitzizzix]

After experiencing a few green months in a row we can expect a red one sooner or later. Perhaps May will be the red one, but it feels like this bear market is lasting forever so if we get another green one then i'd certainly be happy. So far, it's not looking too good! but inflation data is better than expected i think we might see some signs of life

There’s a sign of life especially to those who are waiting for this cheaper moment, another great opportunity to grab more Bitcoin. I think the market will go for a correction for now and this might last until the end of 2nd quarter. We do not enter the real bull market trend yet, but at least we saw a great pump already, now its waiting time again for the price to pump, there’s still chance that it can happen this year.

Even when we thought that we have escaped the bear market, here we are going to $25k. Mehn! But deep inside me, I will like the price to touch 20k again so that I can make a big purchase and wait for the bull run.
Could it be this congested mempool that is dragging the market downwards. If so, the market will reverse upwards if the mempool is decongested.

I was also hoping for that and hoping for bitcoin to come back below 25k to be able to make purchases and for a long term bull run, but in reality the price of bitcoin bounced back to 27k. So I still buy a fixed amount of DCA at a certain pre-planned time if the bitcoin price drops below 25k I will increase my purchase.
Of course the mempool affects the market as it increases transactions and also makes transaction fees high, and it looks like the bitcoin price is slowly returning to 28k+ by the end of May.

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[pooya87]

I think the market is going to get more wild this month or in other words we can see bigger size sideways market in the coming weeks. On one hand we have the manipulators and the attackers that are directly and indirectly creating chaos in the market. On the other hand we still have the money coming in and buying bitcoin cheap getting ready for the future rallies.
Then on top of all that we have the global economy that is in a chaotic state with the inflation still high and the recession growing at the same time. As I've said many times before, as much as inflation is good for bitcoin price, recession is bad for it.

[Dave1]

I think the market is going to get more wild this month or in other words we can see bigger size sideways market in the coming weeks. On one hand we have the manipulators and the attackers that are directly and indirectly creating chaos in the market. On the other hand we still have the money coming in and buying bitcoin cheap getting ready for the future rallies.
Then on top of all that we have the global economy that is in a chaotic state with the inflation still high and the recession growing at the same time. As I've said many times before, as much as inflation is good for bitcoin price, recession is bad for it.

Yeah, as much as we hate those who try to manipulate or making the state more chaotic with those spam attacks, the best thing to do is just see what the market will offer to us. Right now the fees has settled down and for sure this might be the "new norm", no more 1 sat/vB unless the devs will find a way to keep this whole ordinals inscriptions on top of the bitcoin blockchain.

So let's see, as much as I wanted to be bullish, the market might react negatively and just stay their grounds around $27'ish for this month.

[fzkto]

I think the market is going to get more wild this month or in other words we can see bigger size sideways market in the coming weeks. On one hand we have the manipulators and the attackers that are directly and indirectly creating chaos in the market. On the other hand we still have the money coming in and buying bitcoin cheap getting ready for the future rallies.
Then on top of all that we have the global economy that is in a chaotic state with the inflation still high and the recession growing at the same time. As I've said many times before, as much as inflation is good for bitcoin price, recession is bad for it.

Apart from all that, we have China, which will allow cryptocurrency (again) in June. This could attract new investment into the market and we could see a new rally. I remember when the crypto ban in China had a negative impact on the price. Hopefully now there will be a positive. If that happens, growth could start as early as the end of May.

[beerlover]

I think the market is going to get more wild this month or in other words we can see bigger size sideways market in the coming weeks. On one hand we have the manipulators and the attackers that are directly and indirectly creating chaos in the market. On the other hand we still have the money coming in and buying bitcoin cheap getting ready for the future rallies.
Then on top of all that we have the global economy that is in a chaotic state with the inflation still high and the recession growing at the same time. As I've said many times before, as much as inflation is good for bitcoin price, recession is bad for it.

Yeah, as much as we hate those who try to manipulate or making the state more chaotic with those spam attacks, the best thing to do is just see what the market will offer to us. Right now the fees has settled down and for sure this might be the "new norm", no more 1 sat/vB unless the devs will find a way to keep this whole ordinals inscriptions on top of the bitcoin blockchain.

So let's see, as much as I wanted to be bullish, the market might react negatively and just stay their grounds around $27'ish for this month.

I think it could happen again with some new developments, every new problem comes with a new solution eventually, doesn't mean problem will be solved from the first moment but it is not going to be impossible to solve it neither, we are going to end up with a solution "eventually" and that means we are going to get it back down there. I know that it is not cheap right now and there is no solutions right now but we are going to slowly grow bigger and figure out how we could make this work.

ETH hasn't found a solution to that for many years now, they keep going up and up, so we know it is not an easy solution, it hasn't been found yet, and we need to be patient about it and just try to hope for the best. Maybe it will be found in a year, maybe 5 years, maybe tomorrow, but there is nothing we can do but hope until it is found.

[cabron]

I think the market is going to get more wild this month or in other words we can see bigger size sideways market in the coming weeks. On one hand we have the manipulators and the attackers that are directly and indirectly creating chaos in the market. On the other hand we still have the money coming in and buying bitcoin cheap getting ready for the future rallies.
Then on top of all that we have the global economy that is in a chaotic state with the inflation still high and the recession growing at the same time. As I've said many times before, as much as inflation is good for bitcoin price, recession is bad for it.

Apart from all that, we have China, which will allow cryptocurrency (again) in June. This could attract new investment into the market and we could see a new rally. I remember when the crypto ban in China had a negative impact on the price. Hopefully now there will be a positive. If that happens, growth could start as early as the end of May.

That would be June already and maybe it's time to be back and start investing again.
But it's still uncertain because the debt ceiling crisis may just not result good for crypto and the stock market.  June month may just have a wilder swing in prices overnight.

China coming in to give their citizen a chance to grab some cryptocurrency investment could be a catalyst but we'll not find out instantaneously.

[Wend]

I think the market is going to get more wild this month or in other words we can see bigger size sideways market in the coming weeks. On one hand we have the manipulators and the attackers that are directly and indirectly creating chaos in the market. On the other hand we still have the money coming in and buying bitcoin cheap getting ready for the future rallies.
Then on top of all that we have the global economy that is in a chaotic state with the inflation still high and the recession growing at the same time. As I've said many times before, as much as inflation is good for bitcoin price, recession is bad for it.

Apart from all that, we have China, which will allow cryptocurrency (again) in June. This could attract new investment into the market and we could see a new rally. I remember when the crypto ban in China had a negative impact on the price. Hopefully now there will be a positive. If that happens, growth could start as early as the end of May.

I missed it, would you happen to have a link for this info? I don't see any recent news that China will allow the reuse of cryptocurrencies. One of the recent reports about China that I know of is that they are still the 2nd largest bitcoin mining center in the world after the US despite the government ban. But there hasn't been any announcement that the Chinese government will accept cryptocurrencies in June, as you said.

[dragonvslinux]

I think the market is going to get more wild this month or in other words we can see bigger size sideways market in the coming weeks. On one hand we have the manipulators and the attackers that are directly and indirectly creating chaos in the market. On the other hand we still have the money coming in and buying bitcoin cheap getting ready for the future rallies.
Then on top of all that we have the global economy that is in a chaotic state with the inflation still high and the recession growing at the same time. As I've said many times before, as much as inflation is good for bitcoin price, recession is bad for it.

Apart from all that, we have China, which will allow cryptocurrency (again) in June. This could attract new investment into the market and we could see a new rally. I remember when the crypto ban in China had a negative impact on the price. Hopefully now there will be a positive. If that happens, growth could start as early as the end of May.

I missed it, would you happen to have a link for this info? I don't see any recent news that China will allow the reuse of cryptocurrencies. One of the recent reports about China that I know of is that they are still the 2nd largest bitcoin mining center in the world after the US despite the government ban. But there hasn't been any announcement that the Chinese government will accept cryptocurrencies in June, as you said.

You're right about China, I think the user was mistaken for Hong Kong here that will allowing trading of cryptocurrencies again:
https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2023/02/17/no-hong-kong-wont-be-allowing-retail-traders-access-to-crypto-on-june-1/

As for China they are apparently developing their own crypto-Yuan, so I don't think it will be too long before it's legalized. Maybe the Hong Kong experiment will encourage China to allow Bitcoin trading again, especially with the interest from Chinese banks and institutions who want to profit from Hong Kong's market.

As for whether it will have much of an impact on price, I doubt it, because there still won't be retail trading allowed in Hong Kong, let alone China.

[tokeweed]

Long bottom wicks during May 12, 17 and 18 could be telling us that some whales are trying to protect the 26k - 27k range.  We can't really be sure if they could but if they do, it could bring more bullishness back to the market and force the shorts to be flushed out and close out their trades causing even more positive price action.

The question is how long could 26k - 27k be held?  Pretty sure there are whales who are also taking the other side of the trade.

[ShowOff]

Long bottom wicks during May 12, 17 and 18 could be telling us that some whales are trying to protect the 26k - 27k range.  We can't really be sure if they could but if they do, it could bring more bullishness back to the market and force the shorts to be flushed out and close out their trades causing even more positive price action.

The question is how long could 26k - 27k be held?  Pretty sure there are whales who are also taking the other side of the trade.

Whales could keep the market moving more positively for the rest of May, but I think retail traders are reacting too much to panic selling. In my opinion, the increasingly popular scalping strategy seems to have become problem in itself against possibly stay above $27k for May. The price is moving sideways and may tend to drop to another low due to the trader panic.

Whales will take any resulting dip due to panic traders without wanting to show any major moves in price. This is an opportunity for them on the accumulation plan, but anyway I hope the $27k will stick around for the rest of May this year.

[dragonvslinux]

Long bottom wicks during May 12, 17 and 18 could be telling us that some whales are trying to protect the 26k - 27k range.  We can't really be sure if they could but if they do, it could bring more bullishness back to the market and force the shorts to be flushed out and close out their trades causing even more positive price action.

To me last week and this week looks like the attempt to defend the 200 Week MA. It did act as resistance for a couple of weeks in February so makes sense it acts as support for a couple of weeks now we are re-testing, even if it won't hold. Although $27K might seem like a "expensive" for some, as it's nearer the top of the range from the $15K to $31K move, it still remains roughly a 4-year average price. So while short-term traders are probably still taking profits or even shorting the market, those who have stayed away for the past 1-2 years should still feel comfortable re-entering around these levels. Hence the balance I think.

The question is how long could 26k - 27k be held?  Pretty sure there are whales who are also taking the other side of the trade.

I think it'll hold for the rest of the week as we continue to see buying support below $27K, but next week we'll likely see whether the 200 WMA will hold for a third consecutive week (as a strong pattern) or whether it's time for a deeper pull-back towards $25K that many are still waiting for. Bare in mind price only corrected around -16% which isn't much, so a -20-25% correction (that is more natural) is roughly between $23K and $25K. The former has lots of volume support and is close to the 200 Day MA while the latter was strong resistance that could well turn into new support, more likely than $26K/$27K area at least.

[tokeweed]

For those of you guys who joined Sinbad's BTC price prediction contest...  Just dropping by to tell you guys that it's the last day to make your second prediction.  I've missed doing the second one for a couple of months now.  Lol.  So yeah, don't be like me. It's basically +EV, won't hurt to join.  

SINBAD.IO Mixer May Bitcoin Price Prediction
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5451298.0

Anyway, gonna lock the poll, just 24 votes.  Hopefully more of you guys get in next month.

And I feel like it's sideways til the end of the month but since LSD's started getting bought up again, I think it's gonna lead the way for BTC like it did at the last run during the start of the year.  

[rby]

Although $27K might seem like a "expensive" for some, as it's nearer the top of the range from the $15K to $31K move, it still remains roughly a 4-year average price. So while short-term traders are probably still taking profits or even shorting the market, those who have stayed away for the past 1-2 years should still feel comfortable re-entering around these levels. Hence the balance I think.

$27k might seem expensive for some, especially for those who were carried away by the bull market and eventually caught up by the bear market. Anyone who entered the market in 2021 at price above $40 is still not seeing an entrance point by now. While I would advice them to proceed with DCA. Those who exited the market and missed the $15k range because of skepticism, really has a fair price to rejoin the market.

I think it'll hold for the rest of the week as we continue to see buying support below $27K, but next week we'll likely see whether the 200 WMA will hold for a third consecutive week (as a strong pattern) or whether it's time for a deeper pull-back towards $25K that many are still waiting for. Bare in mind price only corrected around -16% which isn't much, so a -20-25% correction (that is more natural) is roughly between $23K and $25K.

-20 to -25% correction happens when the market is retracting to make Ia reasonable pull. There seems to be a kind of consolidation between 26 and 27k range and this might continue in this range till the month of May is over

[dragonvslinux]

Although $27K might seem like a "expensive" for some, as it's nearer the top of the range from the $15K to $31K move, it still remains roughly a 4-year average price. So while short-term traders are probably still taking profits or even shorting the market, those who have stayed away for the past 1-2 years should still feel comfortable re-entering around these levels. Hence the balance I think.

$27k might seem expensive for some, especially for those who were carried away by the bull market and eventually caught up by the bear market. Anyone who entered the market in 2021 at price above $40 is still not seeing an entrance point by now. While I would advice them to proceed with DCA. Those who exited the market and missed the $15k range because of skepticism, really has a fair price to rejoin the market.

Sure, those who bought >$30K may well be staying away from current prices, but this has zero effect on the market. Ie a potential buyer not buying doesn't mean price will decline. The only reason for price decline is obviously those selling (taking profits most likely) or otherwise shorting the market (likely again for short-term gains). Lack of buyers is a reason to go sideways at best, but never downwards, as that's selling pressure.

There is otherwise enough data to confirm that those who bought in the past 1-2 years, so between May 2021 and 2022 (notably >$30K) have been consistently selling, as participants that were previously 20% of the market and are now 13%. Whereas in contrast in the same time period 2-3 year holders have increased from around 6% go 14% in the past year, naturally made up by the other half of 1-2 year holders that didn't sell.

[tokeweed]

^  It's not just about those selling the market down as there really are whales who run everybody's stops as a trading strategy.  Some even are the exchanges' market makers themselves that do it.  It's not that their manipulating the market per se but they need to take the market where most likely there's more action and liquidity.  Kinda like how sports betting sites set the odds.  They take it where they think there's likely more action.

But yeah...  It's looking like the market needs to go down before it could go up if that makes any sense.  Not a lot of people are willing to buy at the current range.

[doomloop]

Long bottom wicks during May 12, 17 and 18 could be telling us that some whales are trying to protect the 26k - 27k range.  We can't really be sure if they could but if they do, it could bring more bullishness back to the market and force the shorts to be flushed out and close out their trades causing even more positive price action.

The question is how long could 26k - 27k be held?  Pretty sure there are whales who are also taking the other side of the trade.

Whales could keep the market moving more positively for the rest of May, but I think retail traders are reacting too much to panic selling. In my opinion, the increasingly popular scalping strategy seems to have become problem in itself against possibly stay above $27k for May. The price is moving sideways and may tend to drop to another low due to the trader panic.

Whales will take any resulting dip due to panic traders without wanting to show any major moves in price. This is an opportunity for them on the accumulation plan, but anyway I hope the $27k will stick around for the rest of May this year.

We are yet to see panic sellers start, these are just normal trading activities and aren't panic sellers reacting to the market sentiments that whales might be trying to create. I don't think that whales would in any way try and hold the price at one position, their motive should probably be to drag the price down so that they can accumulate more at a lower price.

If the price stays within the range of $26k-27k for the whole month, we will probably see some upward movement right at the beginning of the next month, but if it drops below this range, we will be seeing it going down to $23k-22k at least.

[dragonvslinux]

Long bottom wicks during May 12, 17 and 18 could be telling us that some whales are trying to protect the 26k - 27k range.  We can't really be sure if they could but if they do, it could bring more bullishness back to the market and force the shorts to be flushed out and close out their trades causing even more positive price action.

The question is how long could 26k - 27k be held?  Pretty sure there are whales who are also taking the other side of the trade.

Whales could keep the market moving more positively for the rest of May, but I think retail traders are reacting too much to panic selling. In my opinion, the increasingly popular scalping strategy seems to have become problem in itself against possibly stay above $27k for May. The price is moving sideways and may tend to drop to another low due to the trader panic.

Whales will take any resulting dip due to panic traders without wanting to show any major moves in price. This is an opportunity for them on the accumulation plan, but anyway I hope the $27k will stick around for the rest of May this year.

If the price stays within the range of $26k-27k for the whole month, we will probably see some upward movement right at the beginning of the next month, but if it drops below this range, we will be seeing it going down to $23k-22k at least.

While I agree with this theory, I also think this will get confirmed on a Weekly time-frame prior to the Monthly. The 200 Week MA is around $26.1K which was tested last week and this week price is struggling to find support (bounce back to the upside) from this level. So if next week this MA is re-tested and fails to act as support, price can slide further to the downside before the month comes to a close.

I'm not particularly concerned as there is a lot of accumulation volume around $23K, and potentially even $25K will act as support, given it was previous resistance for many months. But to me the idea of $27K holding as support (like it has for the past 2 months) looks increasingly unlikely as price is struggling to maintain above this level. Only a strong rebound next week can turn the situation around quickly imo.

[Yatsan]

Sideways would be the best answer on any month 'coz the market price alone is volatile. But dominantly, the market price of Bitcoin perhaps is lower than the market value last month of February and that is because of the correction happened around $32k. I think as long as the market price of major tokens are not down by 30%, things would be fine and prices are subject to go up again few weeks or months in time.

Long bottom wicks during May 12, 17 and 18 could be telling us that some whales are trying to protect the 26k - 27k range.  We can't really be sure if they could but if they do, it could bring more bullishness back to the market and force the shorts to be flushed out and close out their trades causing even more positive price action.

The question is how long could 26k - 27k be held?  Pretty sure there are whales who are also taking the other side of the trade.

Whales could keep the market moving more positively for the rest of May, but I think retail traders are reacting too much to panic selling. In my opinion, the increasingly popular scalping strategy seems to have become problem in itself against possibly stay above $27k for May. The price is moving sideways and may tend to drop to another low due to the trader panic.

Whales will take any resulting dip due to panic traders without wanting to show any major moves in price. This is an opportunity for them on the accumulation plan, but anyway I hope the $27k will stick around for the rest of May this year.

If the price stays within the range of $26k-27k for the whole month, we will probably see some upward movement right at the beginning of the next month, but if it drops below this range, we will be seeing it going down to $23k-22k at least.

While I agree with this theory, I also think this will get confirmed on a Weekly time-frame prior to the Monthly. The 200 Week MA is around $26.1K which was tested last week and this week price is struggling to find support (bounce back to the upside) from this level. So if next week this MA is re-tested and fails to act as support, price can slide further to the downside before the month comes to a close.

I'm not particularly concerned as there is a lot of accumulation volume around $23K, and potentially even $25K will act as support, given it was previous resistance for many months. But to me the idea of $27K holding as support (like it has for the past 2 months) looks increasingly unlikely as price is struggling to maintain above this level. Only a strong rebound next week can turn the situation around quickly imo.

Touching the support will already create a tendency for a reversal. What we've witneesed this year is total market manipulation by huge investors; having huge pumps and dumps without any strong reason. And with that, ofcourse they won't simply let the price slide too low not unless something of a big news would happen that will negatively affect the demand towards this industry.

[bbc.reporter]

I think the market is going to get more wild this month or in other words we can see bigger size sideways market in the coming weeks. On one hand we have the manipulators and the attackers that are directly and indirectly creating chaos in the market. On the other hand we still have the money coming in and buying bitcoin cheap getting ready for the future rallies.
Then on top of all that we have the global economy that is in a chaotic state with the inflation still high and the recession growing at the same time. As I've said many times before, as much as inflation is good for bitcoin price, recession is bad for it.

Apart from all that, we have China, which will allow cryptocurrency (again) in June. This could attract new investment into the market and we could see a new rally. I remember when the crypto ban in China had a negative impact on the price. Hopefully now there will be a positive. If that happens, growth could start as early as the end of May.

That would be June already and maybe it's time to be back and start investing again.
But it's still uncertain because the debt ceiling crisis may just not result good for crypto and the stock market.  June month may just have a wilder swing in prices overnight.

China coming in to give their citizen a chance to grab some cryptocurrency investment could be a catalyst but we'll not find out instantaneously.

The debt ceiling will be raised, everything that is being speculated about this not being raised is only fud. However, if Jim Cramer whispers that he is quite certain that it will be raised, I think we should dump everything hehehehhe.

On China, I very much agree. There will be Chinese crypto projects that will be whitelisted by their government to fulfill the country's blockchain ambitions. President Xi said in a speech that he wants China to be the leader in information technology including blockchain by 2030. It has also been mentioned before that much of the most profitable trades for the next bull market might be the projects that will be created by Chinese developers. These projects will not be very known unless you are active in Chinese crypto community channels in Wechat and Weibo.

[Poker Player]

I am not surprised that the price at this point in the month is in line with the poll, which was slightly bullish but trending sideways. It looks like we are in a dull phase and will remain so for a while, but as we get closer to the halving the price will tend to go up to come the best after the halving. In the meantime, let's wait and see.