Halving effects, how long they will last?

[libert19]

Every 4 years, we expect bull market just because of halving. What do you think when is this chain is going to broken? Ie, halving no longer equals that bull market is coming.

[1714993353]

1714993353

[Marvell1]

Every 4 years, we expect bull market just because of halving. What do you think when is this chain is going to broken? Ie, halving no longer equals that bull market is coming.

If that happens, then we need to adapt to it, I was thinking about that too, because the market will change at some point, it's not easily as predictable as it is now. Things will get mixed up and become more unpredictable as investors get smarter. But in the end, as long as the demand for bitcoin continues to increase while the supply cannot be replenished, I have nothing to worry about regarding the future bitcoin price. If the bull season doesn't come after the halving, we just have to wait patiently for a while, and everything will come.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

Every 4 years, we expect bull market just because of halving. What do you think when is this chain is going to broken? Ie, halving no longer equals that bull market is coming.

50 BTC each block times 788 040 blocks = 39 mln BTC - we would have such a supply of bitcoin today if there were no halvings.
19,5 mln BTC - current supply.
It means that all 3 halvings together reduced current supply by half. so if we assume that the capitalization more or less corresponds to the amount of capital pumped into the project (project with fair coin distribution) and we assumed it to be a constant in the equation, then all the halvings we have had so far can only be responsible for doubling the price. Nothing more. 20x after first halving was not caused by halving. I still think people confuse correlation with causation.
Especially now they pay too much attention to halving, when in real terms each subsequent halving is less important for the foundations of bitcoin.

1st halving was important. It reduced monetary inflation from 25% to 12%. Thats a big deal. Second halving decreased monetary inflation from 9% to 4,5%. Now we are getting closer and closer to the 4th halving that will reduce bitcoin monetary inflation from like 1.5% to 0.7%. Both numbers are negligible compared to 8% official CPI in US, 10% in EU or 80% in countries like Turkey. So my bet is that halvings fundamental impact on bitcoin price is getting lower and lower with every next halving in oppose to macro data, FED decisions, interest rates, recessions etc. Bitcoin will be more like an asset that act sometimes like gold on steroids sometimes like sp500 on steroids rather than it will fallow "bubble x days before each halving scheme"

[Oshosondy]

Every 4 years, we expect bull market just because of halving. What do you think when is this chain is going to broken? Ie, halving no longer equals that bull market is coming.

Do not bother yourself about this because no one that knows when it would be broken. The only advice I have for people that are investing in bitcoin is that they should still believe that this would still happen again after 2024 halving. It is good for investors to be positive about this. If there would be another bear market before the 2024 halving, it would be a good time for people to invest in bitcoin.

[LoyceV]

Theymos wrote this in 2020:

Some have said that this halving won't have as much effect as the last two, but it's still a reduction in monetary inflation from 3.7%/yr to 1.8%/yr, which is far from nothing, and in fact I see it as permanently bringing BTC out of the inflationary era and into the deflationary era. I'm not sure that we'll see 20k again in 2020 (though it could happen), but I think that 10k+ is quite likely several months after the halving. Historically, the post-halving runup has happened some time after the halving, presumably after people started to really feel the reduced supply.

My take: each halving, the supply reduction is less, which means it has a smaller effect on the price. But don't underestimate the power of expectation: if enough people expect something, it can still happen.
My personal expectation (based on the price history, so no guarantees): we'll see a new ATH a year after the next halving.

[rby]

Every 4 years, we expect bull market just because of halving. What do you think when is this chain is going to broken? Ie, halving no longer equals that bull market is coming.

Do not bother yourself about this because no one that knows when it would be broken. The only advice I have for people that are investing in bitcoin is that they should still believe that this would still happen again after 2024 halving. It is good for investors to be positive about this. If there would be another bear market before the 2024 halving, it would be a good time for people to invest in bitcoin.

I have thought about this for some times but I reached a conclusion that made me to bother less about it. There is no time that the halving effect would fade away. The bull after halving will always be there. Even if no strong analysis to do it, fundamentals which have been sunk into the memories of everyone will create the FUD needed for the bull run after the halving.
Even if miners reward isn't reduced and everything still normal, once the effect of halving has become a tradition in the cryptocurrency industry, the bull must surely happen.

Do you realise there are people who only involves in cryptocurrency during halving and the bull run, after the halving, they will cash out all their coins and continue with physical business and jobs and wait patiently for another 4yrs in order to rejoin the market.
This set of people will always move the market during the halving period, even if nothing technically serious happens.

[CarnagexD]

Every 4 years, we expect bull market just because of halving. What do you think when is this chain is going to broken? Ie, halving no longer equals that bull market is coming.

It's not important whether that chain of "halving equates bull market".
It's only one fine line of perspective. There is a lot more dimension as to how price is trading. Yes, halving is a fundamental part of BTC and sets an outlook of bullish prices because it will affect the mining of BTC within the limited supply. It still lies down to the purpose and use of btc. As an asset and as a reserve currency. As long as people see Bitcoin, it will remain on the positive side.

[libert19]

I have thought about this for some times but I reached a conclusion that made me to bother less about it. There is no time that the halving effect would fade away. The bull after halving will always be there. Even if no strong analysis to do it, fundamentals which have been sunk into the memories of everyone will create the FUD needed for the bull run after the halving.
Even if miners reward isn't reduced and everything still normal, once the effect of halving has become a tradition in the cryptocurrency industry, the bull must surely happen.

You must've meant FOMO there.

My take: each halving, the supply reduction is less, which means it has a smaller effect on the price.

This smaller effect will still likely take btc to 2x-3x from current prices while in early halvings there would have more effect just because price was lower.

Just like it's easy for coin to double from 1 satoshi to 2 than 10k to 20k.

[mk4]

As time goes — halvings will have less effect, and so does positive or negative news in general. But that's assuming bitcoin's demand will remain in an upward slope when viewed in a long-term timeframe.

[ultrloa]

Every 4 years, we expect bull market just because of halving. What do you think when is this chain is going to broken? Ie, halving no longer equals that bull market is coming.

Do not bother yourself about this because no one that knows when it would be broken. The only advice I have for people that are investing in bitcoin is that they should still believe that this would still happen again after 2024 halving. It is good for investors to be positive about this. If there would be another bear market before the 2024 halving, it would be a good time for people to invest in bitcoin.

Yeah no one knows about that but its actually fun to know the sentiments of the people regarding on what came out on their minds towards this question. Since somehow we can get an idea that can be useful especially for people seeking information about the halving effect also on how long it will take effect.

Many people are for sure positive to see good price set on halving effect so maybe some holders are now preparing to hold aiming for that event to happen.

[Wexnident]

Every 4 years, we expect bull market just because of halving. What do you think when is this chain is going to broken? Ie, halving no longer equals that bull market is coming.

I mean, it's still a reduction to the yearly supply, plus people entering the scene aren't exactly capped as of yet, even if we do consider that a lot has already been invested and know of Bitcoin, the same could be said for the other side who hasn't bought it yet. The matter of when can't really be answered since even if we know how much the rewards get reduced yearly, we don't have an exact number as to how many people go and leave the Bitcoin market. If you were to just solely base it on the rewards, then I'd say by the far end, which is still  decades away.

[Smack That Ace]

Every 4 years, we expect bull market just because of halving. What do you think when is this chain is going to broken? Ie, halving no longer equals that bull market is coming.

I never even thought about it, I still believe that history will repeat itself until we make new history. Thinking too much about the future can't bring us more positive results, so I don't want to overthink it.

The halving was one of the factors that helped drive bitcoin's new ATH, but it's not the only one. We still have many other factors to drive the growth of bitcoin such as supply and demand, government recognition of bitcoin...We still have many factors to expect bitcoin to create many new ATHs in the future.

[rat03gopoh]

ATH always occurs between 2 halvings, not exactly a few days after. I think it's just a meaningless cycle limiter that also gives the most impact, meaning that bitcoin has a 4-year opportunity to aim for a new high and during that time one doesn't stop hoping for some fundamental factors that can support reaching ATH.
And it may only take 1 more milestone to change the general public's mind if halving events do have a major effect and ATH is the extra routine after the halving.

[Ludmilla_rose1995]

Every 4 years, we expect bull market just because of halving. What do you think when is this chain is going to broken? Ie, halving no longer equals that bull market is coming.

maybe it will last for 6 months after the halving or a year or longer than that, we don't know. But what is certain is that our potential to be able to get a bullrun on the halvin in 2024 is much bigger and what we need to do now is to hold and hold, that's all.

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

What do you think when is this chain is going to broken? Ie, halving no longer equals that bull market is coming.

Well, if the chain gets broken, it doesn't mean Bitcoin will get broken; it doesn't even mean 1 bitcoin will be less than 1 bitcoin. Let me just take, for instance, the Christmas saying that "faith is when you don't see it but believe it will happen," but I, as a Bitcoiner, believe in hope, and for a lot of us whose hope for Bitcoin is still high, it can still turn out to be that the bull market will still come due to other factors, even after the halving cycles have broken. Some other things, like good news, will still stand as a factor in whether a bull market will start, but if it's not so, then we have to get used to it. Perhaps Bitcoin was created to give individuals full control of their financial management.

[cabron]

When they were predicting back in 2021 about the super cycle, some analyst were specualting that every 4 year cycle may be broken because of the institutions adopting BTC. They were wrong in the end when eventually the bears returned after a year of bull market.

The market is just not sustainable if thewil be a bull market for over a year. The number of BTC in circulation in the market gets lessers and lesser and people sell at the ATH.

[tabas]

Every 4 years, we expect bull market just because of halving. What do you think when is this chain is going to broken? Ie, halving no longer equals that bull market is coming.

Good question as cycles have been different from the expectations that we've seen when they went in bull run, we haven't expected those tremendous gains that it had shown.

The market is just not sustainable if thewil be a bull market for over a year.

It has been sustainable. If it's not sustainable even for the next year then we've seen it drop already under $10k just after the 2021 bull run but it didn't.

The number of BTC in circulation in the market gets lessers and lesser and people sell at the ATH.

And that's the factor that everyone has to consider, BTC supply will never increase and is fixed to 21M while miners are getting lesser bitcoin as reward. It becomes scarce = price increase.

[Falconer]

Every 4 years, we expect bull market just because of halving. What do you think when is this chain is going to broken? Ie, halving no longer equals that bull market is coming.

Halving will never guarantee ATH, but halving will definitely have an impact on the low or high of the bitcoin price. Both supply and demand will be affected by the halving, of course it could trigger a post halving tradition i.e. new ATH.

But I agree that such an impact will lessen over time, it's just to prevent an easy pattern to predict when it will hit a new ATH. Most believe ATH will only be achieved after 1 year or within 18 months after the halving, but I'm not entirely sure when is the right time to determine it.

[South Park]

Every 4 years, we expect bull market just because of halving. What do you think when is this chain is going to broken? Ie, halving no longer equals that bull market is coming.

I think this is going to take quite some time before it happens, because the bull run that comes after the halving is produced not only due to the effects that it has in the supply and demand, the bull run also happens because people now have the expectation that it is going to happen, and it is going to take some time before those expectations are over, so if I were to guess when the halving will stop having this effect and investors will finally adjust their behavior, then the halving coming during 2044 or 2048 will be my best guess of when this will happen.

[Hamphser]

Every 4 years, we expect bull market just because of halving. What do you think when is this chain is going to broken? Ie, halving no longer equals that bull market is coming.

Try to look up on this article and you would be able to read up something interesting
https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-halvings-bull-market

We cant really be able to determine if this chain would be broken on which it turns that out when halving do happen then bull run would comes next. Why it did become a catalyst?
We cant be sure on how the community would really be recognizing such event.Its not shocking that Bitcoin would be the main basis, if it turns out that
block rewards had been cut in half but the demand still keeps rising then we do really know on what comes next.

Somewhat in overall, there's no way that we could be able to conclude out that there's always a bullrun comes after halving or something
that we call 4-year cycle.