Why is the transaction fee and mempool congestion increasing ?

[Edwardard]

Since the past few days (probably a week), Im observing that the bitcoin transaction fee (for a tx to get confirmed and included in the next block) has increased to an unreasonable level and is not ready to come down. My tx used to get confirmed at 1sat/vB in the past months. I was just curious to know as to what has caused this sudden congestion in the mempool? I cant find a reason.

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[OmegaStarScream]

AFAIK, it's related to Bitcoin ordinals[1]. If you're transacting on a regular basis, then maybe it's better to try and stick to the lightning network for now.

[1] https://decrypt.co/138668/bitcoin-daily-fees-hit-all-time-high-with-3-million-ordinals-inscriptions

[Zaguru12]

I was reading through bitcoin.com the other day and saw that there has been decreased in the global hashrate with it been around 300EH/s with also the the intervals for the next block to discovered has increased above the 10 minutes interval. So I think this could be part of it aside the fluctuations of bitcoin price.

[TopTort777]

Since the past few days (probably a week), Im observing that the bitcoin transaction fee (for a tx to get confirmed and included in the next block) has increased to an unreasonable level and is not ready to come down. My tx used to get confirmed at 1sat/vB in the past months. I was just curious to know as to what has caused this sudden congestion in the mempool? I cant find a reason.

Because a plague named NFT hit Bitcoin blockchain. Those greedy bustards inscribe more than 5k NFT in each block.. Seekers of easy money load a lot of traffic to blockchain, making every low fee transaction stuck there for days and weeks, which turns into fee increase. These bustards are turning BTC blockchain into ETH Remember times when transactions on Ethereum cost +50 bucks and still could fail? We can get same in BTC. Funny that those people will be first to complain that they no longer can pay few cents for transaction

[witcher_sense]

Since the past few days (probably a week), Im observing that the bitcoin transaction fee (for a tx to get confirmed and included in the next block) has increased to an unreasonable level and is not ready to come down. My tx used to get confirmed at 1sat/vB in the past months. I was just curious to know as to what has caused this sudden congestion in the mempool? I cant find a reason.

The unintended consequences of the growing adoption of Bitcoin are definitely a bitter pill to swallow, especially for those idealistically-minded people who have repeatedly talked about Bitcoin being a store of value and its sole purpose being an alternative to the traditional financial system built on top of debt and continuous printing of money. As it turns out, the permissionless and decentralized nature of Bitcoin may involve utilizing it in unexpected ways that not everyone supports. Nevertheless, this additional source of demand (I am now talking about ordinals, inscriptions, and other NFT stuff) results in blocks full of large-sized transactions, which in turn leads to an increase in fee rate and mempool congestion. I'd say if you favor the absence of centralized control over Bitcoin protocol and permissionless access to all its capabilities and features, you should be happy about the fact that people find ways to use Bitcoin in a way they consider beneficial and useful for themselves. After all, not all people in the Bitcoin community support the use of Bitcoin as a means of payment, but nothing can't stop you from paying others in Bitcoin (assuming your counterparty voluntarily agrees to conduct the said exchange), so why give people a right to decide for other users which use case is acceptable?

[o_e_l_e_o]

I was reading through bitcoin.com the other day and saw that there has been decreased in the global hashrate with it been around 300EH/s with also the the intervals for the next block to discovered has increased above the 10 minutes interval. So I think this could be part of it aside the fluctuations of bitcoin price.

This is incorrect.

Firstly, I would point out that bitcoin.com is a BCash scam site entirely designed to trick newbies in to believing a dying shitcoin is the "real" bitcoin. I would avoid it like the plague.

Secondly, the current average block time for this difficulty epoch is around 10 minutes and 12 seconds. This is the difference between 144 blocks a day and 141 blocks a day. This is a difference of 3 blocks and therefore 3 MvB at most, and not nearly enough to explain the >100 MvB of unconfirmed transactions we currently have.

This quote in particular goes to show the author has absolutely no idea what he is talking about:

Meanwhile, block intervals have slowed down and surpassed the average ten-minute mark, with the most recent block taking a total of ten minutes and 50 seconds to be validated.

The time it takes a single block to be found is utterly meaningless when considering the global hashrate or the average for the epoch. We could double the hashrate and still wait an hour for a block, or we could lose 90% of the hashrate and still find the next block in 20 seconds.

[Findingnemo]

AFAIK, it's related to Bitcoin ordinals[1]. If you're transacting on a regular basis, then maybe it's better to try and stick to the lightning network for now.

[1] https://decrypt.co/138668/bitcoin-daily-fees-hit-all-time-high-with-3-million-ordinals-inscriptions

Yesterday the numbers of unconfirmed transactions around 290K but now it's near 210K so it's a sign of the network is clearing but as you said anyone who wants to make Bitcoin transfer can avoid on chain transaction to save few dollars because on normal days it won't even cost half a dollar now it's over $6.

[Lucius]

Since the past few days (probably a week), Im observing that the bitcoin transaction fee (for a tx to get confirmed and included in the next block) has increased to an unreasonable level and is not ready to come down.

It may seem unreasonable to you, but there were times in the history of Bitcoin when you had to pay as much as $50+ to get your transaction confirmed in the next block. Back then, someone spammed the network for completely different reasons than what happens today, but the effect is the same for the average user - more expensive fees for sending transactions.

https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-transactionfees.html#alltime

I don't like it happening this way either, because vigilant critics will again start criticizing that Bitcoin makes no sense as a currency because the transactions are simply too expensive. And of course there is some truth here, because microtransactions that are worth a few $ do not make sense if you have to pay a higher fee than the value of the transaction.

[joniboini]

[1] https://decrypt.co/138668/bitcoin-daily-fees-hit-all-time-high-with-3-million-ordinals-inscriptions

So basically, people realize that the Bitcoin chain is more secure compared to other networks to print their NFT, which is why they are fine with paying 30 sat/vbyte now?

Makes me wonder if they will continue doing this or will eventually move back to 'fast' confirming blockchain since it allows them to move their tokens asap. Looks like those blockchain project that aims to anchor other chains to BTC is not going to die soon if people keep flooding BTC with NFT and the demand for anchoring to reduce congestion increase. CMIIW.

[Edwardard]

AFAIK, it's related to Bitcoin ordinals[1]. If you're transacting on a regular basis, then maybe it's better to try and stick to the lightning network for now.

[1] https://decrypt.co/138668/bitcoin-daily-fees-hit-all-time-high-with-3-million-ordinals-inscriptions

Got it, so its all about ordinals making this happen. Although, I do like the lightening network, but I think not many services support it yet?
I have one of my tx stuck from a few days. I paid 5.98sat/vB in fee thinking the fee rate would come down soon, my bad.
Tx: https://mempool.space/tx/428784a3370461b0504a2cae425c297cd5194fcf96501f2375b1b1cd9d810334

So most likely I will have to wait 14days for this to get dropped and get back to my wallet.
Will this ordinals thing have any impact on Bitcoin's price as well? Thoughts?

[Plaguedeath]

Will this ordinals thing have any impact on Bitcoin's price as well? Thoughts?

I think not, because they're buy Bitcoin just for transactions fee which mean they're not really interested with Bitcoin in the first place.

But with the current Bitcoin fee is quite high, this make small holders are careful enough to buy or sell because they will need to spend more money. I think many people might choose to adopt lightning network because they have no other way to reduce fee in Bitcoin network even you've use segwit address.

[TechW87]

im more concerned about the storage space needed for running the full node.  it will keep increasing due to ordinals and make it harder for people to run a full node. 

[Doan9269]

Since the past few days (probably a week), Im observing that the bitcoin transaction fee (for a tx to get confirmed and included in the next block) has increased to an unreasonable level and is not ready to come down.

Read about bitcoin ordinals, there have been several topics created already onnthis aspect and members have discussed on this same issue countless times, but i want to believe this is bot where the end is going to land, things will soon get better and back steady as before.

My tx used to get confirmed at 1sat/vB in the past months. I was just curious to know as to what has caused this sudden congestion in the mempool? I cant find a reason.

Maybe you noticed this late, it's quite few months now that you make any transaction in nothing less than 4 sat/vbyte, later it increases to about 9 to 11 sat/vbyte and to over 20 sat/vbyte the more the congestion the higher the fee rate.

[o_e_l_e_o]

I have one of my tx stuck from a few days. I paid 5.98sat/vB in fee thinking the fee rate would come down soon, my bad.
Tx: https://mempool.space/tx/428784a3370461b0504a2cae425c297cd5194fcf96501f2375b1b1cd9d810334

So most likely I will have to wait 14days for this to get dropped and get back to my wallet.

As there is only a single output, and the transaction is not opted in to RBF, then the only realistic possibility to speed this transaction up would be for whoever owns the receiving address to utilize a CPFP transaction. I am assuming that the receiving address does not belong to you, so this is not an option unless you can convince the receiving party to do so.

Why did you not opt in to RBF? Silly not to, especially when the mempool is as it is. RBF would allow you to bump the fee at any time. As it stands, your options are to either wait for the mempool to empty down to 6 sats/vbyte, or if that hasn't happened within 14 days, then you correct in saying your transaction will drop.

[Synchronice]

Since the past few days (probably a week), Im observing that the bitcoin transaction fee (for a tx to get confirmed and included in the next block) has increased to an unreasonable level and is not ready to come down. My tx used to get confirmed at 1sat/vB in the past months. I was just curious to know as to what has caused this sudden congestion in the mempool? I cant find a reason.

I created a thread about that too, a little earlier but to be honest, I haven't received logical explanations, only overall ones. I've been watching mempool and I often see that despite the fact that there are a bunch of transactions on block with low transaction fees and overall fee becomes lower, someone comes out of nowhere and sends transaction with 10 times, 20 times, 50 times more fees than recommended. Then other people join them and overall our transaction fees get higher. One could say that it's because of old software but these transactions come from SegWit addresses.
Idk, there is no logical explanation.

[tbct_mt2]

Why did you not opt in to RBF? Silly not to, especially when the mempool is as it is. RBF would allow you to bump the fee at any time. As it stands, your options are to either wait for the mempool to empty down to 6 sats/vbyte, or if that hasn't happened within 14 days, then you correct in saying your transaction will drop.

Replace-by-Fee is chosen by a software wallet default if I am right.

So why the user did turned it off in the past? I am not sure what is a reason to turn it off. With RBF opt-in, we can bump the fee rate any time we want to do that. Without that opt-in, the only option left is Child-Pay-For-Parents which is more complicated than RBF.

How Replace-By-Fee (RBF) an Child-Pays-For-Parent (CPFP) can speed up confirmation
[TUTORIAL]getting a low-fee transaction unstuck by creating a CPFP with electrum

[o_e_l_e_o]

I've been watching mempool and I often see that despite the fact that there are a bunch of transactions on block with low transaction fees and overall fee becomes lower, someone comes out of nowhere and sends transaction with 10 times, 20 times, 50 times more fees than recommended. Then other people join them and overall our transaction fees get higher. One could say that it's because of old software but these transactions come from SegWit addresses.
Idk, there is no logical explanation.

I've spoken about this before too: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346270.msg57336047#msg57336047

The explanation is that lots of people just blindly accept the fee that their chosen wallet or website tells them, and that the vast majority of wallets and websites are absolutely awful at suggesting an appropriate fee. As you say, all it takes is one exchange to kick start the process by dumping a bunch of overpaying transactions in the mempool, and then 90% of wallets and websites out there start matching those exorbitant fees, and we get in to a vicious cycle. If everyone (exchanges included) actually just paid attention to the fee they are paying, then everyone could save 90% on all their fees, all the time.

Replace-by-Fee is chosen by a software wallet default if I am right.

Some wallets do not support it. Which was kind of my point - if he is using wallet software which does not support RBF, then time to find better wallet software.

Without that opt-in, the only option left is Child-Pay-For-Parents which is more complicated than RBF.

And also more expensive.

[stompix]

im more concerned about the storage space needed for running the full node.  it will keep increasing due to ordinals and make it harder for people to run a full node. 

The single block size is still 1MB, nobody is going to run out of storage space with such an amount added each day, put in a 1TB drive and you're set for a few years.
As for the ram needed to host the mempool you can limit that from the settings, most have a 300MB limit already and it's not affecting too much, it just drops low-fee tx which would anyhow never confirm, all you need is to rebroadcast it again when times are more favorable.

So basically, people realize that the Bitcoin chain is more secure compared to other networks to print their NFT, which is why they are fine with paying 30 sat/vbyte now?

The ones minting brc20 tokens are not giving a damn about security, they've smelled another hype and are trying to make some money, that's all. These people would create tokens on any clone of a shitcoin of an altcoin if it were profitable, I'm willing to bet quite a few of them don't even know BTC is not GPU minable.

[panganib999]

A couple of things I guess.

Exchanges messing with the peoplebwith their horrendous "approximate" fees and transaction times. More and more people investing in bitcoin because somehow they caught wind of the bull run happening soon, perhaps because of Ordinals, which consequently also deserves another spot on their own because as much as people hate to admit it, they are controbuting to the transaction volume and therefore are a good reason why the fees are high too, and because of other reasons I don't know.

I think this is good really. Save for the fact that it's mad annoying to deal with and a little unhelpful at times especially if you're running out of time, but for the most part high transaction fees and volumes come during times of great prosperity in bitcoin, so it may be a stretch, but these could be telling us something you know.

[entebah]

AFAIK, it's related to Bitcoin ordinals[1]. If you're transacting on a regular basis, then maybe it's better to try and stick to the lightning network for now.

[1] https://decrypt.co/138668/bitcoin-daily-fees-hit-all-time-high-with-3-million-ordinals-inscriptions

Got it, so its all about ordinals making this happen. Although, I do like the lightening network, but I think not many services support it yet?
I have one of my tx stuck from a few days. I paid 5.98sat/vB in fee thinking the fee rate would come down soon, my bad.
Tx: https://mempool.space/tx/428784a3370461b0504a2cae425c297cd5194fcf96501f2375b1b1cd9d810334

So most likely I will have to wait 14days for this to get dropped and get back to my wallet.
Will this ordinals thing have any impact on Bitcoin's price as well? Thoughts?

I have one transaction that got stuck for more than 2 days https://mempool.space/tx/ffa077a61be9539ea6276463cd5f80429b2009dc6132981fa5386fafd31add6e
usually, I use the same fee and it's got confirmed just within 2 hours but because the unconfirmed transaction reached 210k it got over 2 days and is still not unconfirmed.