High tx fee has historically marked the sell-off. Is this time different??

[Edwardard]

I've always seen that whenever the bitcoin tx fee soars sky high, it marks the beginning of a new sell-off cycle. Are we going to repeat it again this time? Who is to blame ? Pepe sh*t ? Ordinals ? Check the image below for reference. I'd like to know what ppl think about this.

[1714579376]

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[Oshosondy]

I've always seen that whenever the bitcoin tx fee soars sky high, it marks the beginning of a new sell-off cycle. Are we going to repeat it again this time? Who is to blame ? Pepe sh*t ? Ordinals ? Check the image below for reference. I'd like to know what ppl think about this.

What I think about it is that it is normal for bitcoin price to fall. If it continues, $20000 will be a strong buying price. I do not care of what cause the fall because the fall is not massive. Bitcoin is still above $26000.

What is interesting me to speculate on now is if bitcoin can go below $20000 again or not.

[Zaguru12]

Should we say it is panic or rather this is done by traders or people using bitcoin as a means of payment method. With the bitcoin transaction high it will be costly using it for daily transactions. Some people then converts their bitcoins into stable coins or even fiats just for transactions and that’s is why the rate of selling off increases. With the transaction fee also having negative impact on the bitcoin price there traders that panic at very little dump and they sell off.

I believe that one might be a little different because as the bitcoin grows in adoption so do People see the value of holding on to it for a longer time than just selling. Also with the bitcoin halving around which signifies the bull run many people will like to hold on to there bitcoin or even add more regardless of the price fluctuations it faces before then

[Edwardard]

Try talking.com

What is that ? Does it predict the bitcoin's next big move ? Or you just being sarcastic

Bitcoin is still above $26000.

The imp. support for me is 26500 (on daily candlesticks) . Below this, its all impulsive candles made to the upside with not much support upto 20k. Im afraid if it will do a free fall to 20k again.

[Oshosondy]

Try talking.com

What is that ? Does it predict the bitcoin's next big move ? Or you just being sarcastic

LoyceMobile wrote that because imgur images are having error issue on this forum and people are advised to use the uploading image site created by one of our members. Theymos recommend that also. Later your image appeared.

The imp. support for me is 26500 (on daily candlesticks) . Below this, its all impulsive candles made to the upside with not much support upto 20k. Im afraid if it will do a free fall to 20k again.

That is true, it is what I think too, but nobody can know the price in long term. I will be happy to buy again at $20000, and I will be looking for all-time-high.

[dragonvslinux]

While true that the two periods before with high transaction fees have been the beginning of a sell-off, this has previously been matched with transaction volume. Whereas right now the amount of BTC transacted on the network remains relatively low. This is why they say two instances can be a coincidence, it's only when there is a third reference point it becomes the start of a pattern.

So while price has corrected so far from $31K down to $26K where the 200 Week MA is, I'm not expecting it to go below $20K or return to the lows personally.

[coolcoinz]

Ok, I'm looking at similarities on your chart and here's what I see:
We're at the tx cost levels from January 21. The cost rose, but the price rose with it. As you can see, fees went 2x from here in 2021 and the price per bitcoin did the same (30k-60k).
Since you're concluding that after high fees there was always a dump, I feel like it's the bearish mood that's affecting your judgement.

Do you think that if we ever go to 100k the fees will remain at current levels? More likely they will be at the 2021 high, if not higher. Without second layer solutions, when people see th BTC they used to buy in 2022 is 5 times more expensive, they'll be willing to pay at least twice the current fee to move it. High fees are probably here to stay and what ordinals did is just a taste of what's coming in the next bull market. We got high fees now, but we'd get them anyway in 2024.

[LoyceV]

Try talkimg.com

What is that ? Does it predict the bitcoin's next big move ? Or you just being sarcastic

I fixed my quote, autocorrect messed it up. See TalkImg.com - Image hosting for BitcoinTalk.

[darkangel11]

Have you noticed that there are 2 main types of analysts?
Type 1: The pattern is repeating.
These guys look for something in the past and think it's going to happen again. Some examples of their thinking:
Last time the bitcoin bear market took 400 days, so we're going to be in a bear market for at least that long.
In the last bull market bitcoin made 20x the former ATH so this time it's gong to do the same.
Last time bitcoin lost 75% in the bear market so this time it will also do it.

Type 2: This time is different.
These guys contradict type 1 analysts by looking for things that can mess up their predictions.
But this time we're in a recession.
But this time we're also in a stock bear market.
But there's a war in Ukraine.
But this time bitcoin can't go 20x because there's too many altcoins that take away from the total market cap.
In the last bear market there was no FTX.


OP is obviously doing the type 1 kind of work.

[palle11]

I'm tempted to say that the time is different with what happened in the past and now with the high fees and the number of bitcoin active enthusiast and the number of altcoins and stablecoins that can stand in the gap for bitcoin and hodl price above $20,000 but again I'm looking at another bitcoin season, the season of halving and the year preciding halving. Just thinking about what it is 

[DeathAngel]

Transaction fees were high because or ordinal & brc20 spam. They weren’t really high because of increased number of transactions. They were high because of bloated blocks due to morons spamming the network with crap. People were having to pay more to get their transactions confirmed.

Normally when fees rise because if a congested blockchain it could be a sign of the peak in a cycle which could hint at a sell off but in this scenario I would say no.

[dunfida]

I've always seen that whenever the bitcoin tx fee soars sky high, it marks the beginning of a new sell-off cycle. Are we going to repeat it again this time? Who is to blame ? Pepe sh*t ? Ordinals ? Check the image below for reference. I'd like to know what ppl think about this.

What I think about it is that it is normal for bitcoin price to fall. If it continues, $20000 will be a strong buying price. I do not care of what cause the fall because the fall is not massive. Bitcoin is still above $26000.

What is interesting me to speculate on now is if bitcoin can go below $20000 again or not.

Why people do really usually freak out when they do see that decline of -4000 - 5k when it regards to price and now telling that there might be some huge sell-off. Then what after that? There's nothing we can
do about it if ever it would happen or pushed through because there's no way on predicting on how it would be ending up.If we do have those sell off past then it could neither happen again or not.
It would all be depending on the community because we know that it would be always the main factor on which it would be determined whether the price could hold up still into its position
or would really be that going negative.

If ever the price would really be going below 25k then i would definitely say that this would be the best time on accumulating or would really be making some DCA,considering that this price is really just that
good for you to enter. Halving is fast approaching and it would be more sensible and be more worth if you do make yourself enter on cheaper prices. You cant really make yourself that
able to utilize these low price if you wont really be making such act.

[fzkto]

I think the increase in commissions was caused specifically to lower the price of bitcoin. I also noticed more than once that when bitcoin's mem pool gets clogged up, it means the price is about to drop. That's what happened this time too. All significant supports were broken, so I would not be surprised if we see the previous bottom again. It reminds me a lot of 2019.

[TimeTeller]

I'm tempted to say that the time is different with what happened in the past and now with the high fees and the number of bitcoin active enthusiast and the number of altcoins and stablecoins that can stand in the gap for bitcoin and hodl price above $20,000 but again I'm looking at another bitcoin season, the season of halving and the year preciding halving. Just thinking about what it is  

I believe the major difference is the number of people in crypto as compared to before. That's true.
Even if there's a pattern that we can refer to, we still have no guarantee that such trend will truly happen.
And after like a couple of weeks, seems that the mempool is going down now with tx fees.
So before another important event comes to btc market, we can always stash more if you think there will be good things that will happen eventually.

[hatshepsut93]

Bitcoin lost 10% of its price during this sell-off. That's something that happens quite often and doesn't create as much blockchain activity. So the fee spike was caused by ordinals, but people who are moving coins in/out of exchanges were probably contributing to the fee spike too, because for them 200-300 sat/byte is not really a lot if they can make thousands of dollars on arbitrage or from short-term flips.

[JeffBrad12]

well of course it could mean many thing but I think ordinal the main culprit here, maybe this time around it will be different, after all BRC-20 has become a thing and is starting to gain some fame.
of course if the price of bitcoin could some how rise with the fee, it's gonna be a good thing, after all who don't want bitcoin rise in value, because it might also carry most of altcoins value too, but I doubt it will be all the same like the previous cycle considering the fact that the presence of ordinal already become a technology improvement.
but at the end of the day, we don't know until few months forward.

[adaseb]

It’s not the same issue here.

Back when fees were hike it was due to fomo and there was tons of people buying Bitcoin and moving it around. The situation here is that people are using the Bitcoin blockchain for ordinals which floods the network with transactions. If it wasn’t for ordinals then the transaction numbers would be fairly average.

[Reid]

I'd like to think it's different now but there are always chances it could happen for a lot of reasons.
It's scaring away investors. All types of industries are also affected. Gambling industry for example, the gamblers are switching to another currency because big amount of money are being wasted just for transaction fees instead of being used in their gambling habits.
Where would we get the buying power, the demand, if they are gone? They will probably sell too especially those who are using it in daily basis.
Ethereum had the same problem, and a lot of their buyers are also gone but it doesn't mean the fall will be for a long time.

[justdimin]

I'm tempted to say that the time is different with what happened in the past and now with the high fees and the number of bitcoin active enthusiast and the number of altcoins and stablecoins that can stand in the gap for bitcoin and hodl price above $20,000 but again I'm looking at another bitcoin season, the season of halving and the year preciding halving. Just thinking about what it is 

The thing is, people ignore that it is at the very peak as well. I mean not only that it marks the sell-off and maybe it won't this time, that's another thing and very true, but on top of that we go higher and higher and higher before we peak and then we start with the sell off, but during that going higher part we see a huge increase. Check the tx fee and how it goes up, and check how the price goes up with it as well, and then check how it goes down, and then price goes down as well.

It means if we are going up right now, then it could also mean price will go up as well and then we are going to end up with something much better later on. I hope that it goes well, I am not sure if it will but I really hope that it does.

[Quidat]

I'm tempted to say that the time is different with what happened in the past and now with the high fees and the number of bitcoin active enthusiast and the number of altcoins and stablecoins that can stand in the gap for bitcoin and hodl price above $20,000 but again I'm looking at another bitcoin season, the season of halving and the year preciding halving. Just thinking about what it is 

The thing is, people ignore that it is at the very peak as well. I mean not only that it marks the sell-off and maybe it won't this time, that's another thing and very true, but on top of that we go higher and higher and higher before we peak and then we start with the sell off, but during that going higher part we see a huge increase. Check the tx fee and how it goes up, and check how the price goes up with it as well, and then check how it goes down, and then price goes down as well.

It means if we are going up right now, then it could also mean price will go up as well and then we are going to end up with something much better later on. I hope that it goes well, I am not sure if it will but I really hope that it does.

In speaking about correlating it with the price then it wont be always that precise because if we do look about  that high peak of fees, then it would be neither be on a sell off or massive buying whatsoever in between the two. We've seen those conditions or situations in the past on which there's no way that we could be able to precisely tell on whats happening on the network but one things for sure that it doesnt really reflect out whether we are on a sell off or not. This time it is really just that having that Ordinal thing that had been injected which it causes out for the network to congest.
We might able to make up some patterns and comparison back in the past but its not something that we could precisely tell that it is truly that penning as of this moment.

Checking out om mempool.space as of this moment which the fees is already just sitting around 29sats/byte which came from high from 500 as i remember on previous
days which it is really indeed high.