Bitcoin 2024 halving less than 1 year away

[dragonvslinux]

Based on the estimate from bitcoinblockhalf.com, the 2024 halving will be end of April with other estimates calculating it as beginning of April, even as early as March.

While not getting too bogged down in the timing which is dependant on whether there continues to be hash rate growth (to bring it forward) or not, when do you think the bull market will start?

The last halving was in May 2020 and arguably the bull market started a few months after this, as instead there was consolidation around $9K for several months, whereas in 2016 the bull market more or less started immediately after the July halving, or even arguably around 6 months beforehand as price had already increased over 100% from the lows without a significant correction.

I also remember in 2019 many were anticipating that price would increase in the 6 months leading up to the halving similar to 2016, which started to happen at the beginning of 2020 until the Covid crash occurred, hence instead price took several months to recover, although was slightly higher than it was 6 months prior to halving at around $7K, but not before re-visiting $4K.

I realise when the bull market takes off will also be dependant on price action, for example if there is another black swan event at the start of 2024 then this could result in a delay like in 2020. But otherwise do you generally think the bull market will start before or after the halving, or otherwise more or less immediately after the halving, and do you think there will be any other relevant factors other than the halving?

Interested to hear your thoughts...

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[Oshosondy]

Bull run is normal before halving, but it is not going to be strong enough, which would be followed by bear market again. That is what that happened recently when bitcoin got to $31000. Maybe the price of bitcoin will increase, but I am still thinking that it would decreased up to $20000 before halving which will indicate a strong buy before halving which might not make bitcoin to still be more than $30000. Halving will come and the real all-time-high bull market will become reality.

[palle11]

I realise when the bull market takes off will also be dependant on price action, for example if there is another black swan event at the start of 2024 then this could result in a delay like in 2020. But otherwise do you generally the bull market will start before or after the halving, or otherwise more or less immediately after the halving, and do you think there will be any other relevant factors other than the halving?

Interested to hear your thoughts...

Generally I think there is nothing up the sleeve for now until halving except Elon musk pulls up something  . That is by the way but talking with my experience on bitcoin bull run, it is usually after the halving has happened but not immediately. This begins to happen few months afterwards although sometimes there is price action because of volatility at the time close to halving as a result of uncertainty in the market. This is what happened during the time before the 2016 halving, the price continued to be unstable with more volatility on the price increase before the halving eventually took price to around $21,000 in December 2017.

[mk4]

It will be whenever most people(especially retail) least expects it. If most people think that the 'real' bull run will start at X date — chances are, it will happen earlier or later than that date. Markets dynamics are truly fascinating!

[EarnOnVictor]

Thanks for this speculation and reminder. First, I was unable to choose any option from the poll because none suits my understudies about halving. My option is that the main bull run would start about 1-.1.5 months before the halving and this is still subject to what you mean by the bull run.

Actually, a substantial bull run was predominant in the early months of this year, we might witness more of such still before 2024. In light of this, if it's a bull run that is attributed to halving, my early option stands, nonetheless, I will not do anything until my technical studies affirm it. I will never be a blind trader in the coming event no matter how real it promises.

By the way, this is to reference my standpoint towards that time and the event. However, if Bitcoin could reach below $20,000 any moment from now, I will start buying immediately regardless of what happens before or after halving.

[tabas]

It will be interesting if there will be no bull run after the halving. As it will still be considered as something new just as the 2021 was actually a new bull run for which it has exceeded our expectations. But who wants that? I don't personally like to see it happen that there will be no bull run after the halving as the cycle notes and proved that there will always be the bull run every cycle and after the halving.

when do you think the bull market will start?

My estimates will still remain that it might start after several months but we'll see the ATH and actual peak of it by 2025. Just as what mostly are believing that 2025 might be the great peak price point of Bitcoin will be seen again.

[GeorgeJohn]

Bull run is normal before halving, but it is not going to be strong enough, which would be followed by bear market again. That is what that happened recently when bitcoin got to $31000. Maybe the price of bitcoin will increase, but I am still thinking that it would decreased up to $20000 before halving which will indicate a strong buy before halving which might not make bitcoin to still be more than $30000. Halving will come and the real all-time-high bull market will become reality.

We all know that bitcoin price doesn't stand constant in price, it always fluctuates the way I'm seeing bitcoin, so I believe that the price of Bitcoin can fall now and within 30minutes it rises, so it has been the nature of bitcoin increment right from time, so I believe that bitcoin doesn't escape increment neither decrement, it always be the nature of bitcoin

[taufik123]

We all know that bitcoin price doesn't stand constant in price, it always fluctuates the way I'm seeing bitcoin, so I believe that the price of Bitcoin can fall now and within 30minutes it rises, so it has been the nature of bitcoin increment right from time, so I believe that bitcoin doesn't escape increment neither decrement, it always be the nature of bitcoin

Not just the nature of bitcoin, fluctuations are characteristic of cryptocurrencies and this becomes an advantage and disadvantage depending on how to take advantage of it.

Right now the price is still correcting due to some FUD that has emerged, this is still quite normal because a few weeks ago Bitcoin was able to survive above the price of $ 30k and now it has dropped to the price of $ 26k.

Halving will occur soon in 2024 and this will be a trigger for Bitcoin to be able to reach the ATH Price again, that's what everyone hopes for.

May this year, according to the history of bitcoin prices, did experience corrections and some frequent sales.
We'll just wait until after May and June, it is expected that Bitcoin will return to bullishness

[STT]

The bull market isnt this year, it has too much history to navigate first.   I'd say its obvious but nothing is for sure; its certainly precedent for how its very likely to turn out.  The reason being there is a ton of volume overhead, in fact we are buried in old trades and prices as resistance we must work through.   We're in the 5th month already, only 7 clear months left to really clearly define a bullish market.   What happens is this year we clear the runway but we do not take off.

I'm not in anyway negative on BTC, but 2023 will continue not in a straight line but walking with weights on it subdued building itself up.   The bullish price action people are looking for is still contained on the chart just these last few months thats it.  BTC is doing very well imo despite the apparent low price, its performance in recovery has been quite impressive when we reference DXY, higher rates, much negative context.

[Poker Player]

But otherwise do you generally the bull market will start before or after the halving, or otherwise more or less immediately after the halving, and do you think there will be any other relevant factors other than the halving?

Interested to hear your thoughts...

What I want to see in the next cycle, after halving, is how far the peak goes. This cycle has been the most disappointing in terms of returns, failing all forecasts that were made in 2021. For the next one I would expect $100K to be passed, but what if it doesn't happen? A lot of things would have to be rethought. Passing $200K is much more difficult. If for example the peak of the next cycle was $140K, it would be a 2x, coming from a 3.5x the previous cycle.

The point is that as the price goes up, it is more difficult for the returns to be spectacular. The only good thing I see is that volatility tends to decrease as well.

[Oasisman]

But otherwise do you generally the bull market will start before or after the halving, or otherwise more or less immediately after the halving, and do you think there will be any other relevant factors other than the halving?

Interested to hear your thoughts...

Generally, I think it would start before the halving as a result of people needing to purchase more fractions before the actual halving occurs, but that depends on several factors that could drive the market sentiments on the other way. People would not really know if the bullrun just started until we see the price having a good run that could potentially lead closer to the most recent ATH or break it anyway. This would usually happens after the halving, just like what we've seen from the past couple of Bitcoin halving.

[Sebas.tian]

I think, bullish market have started because many traders has started trading their coins they purchased early last year when the price was low in the market, which is a great joy for them to experience $30,000 in the months of April and there is still hope of making more profits from the market. Since the price has moved from $17,543 to $27,543 in this month of may showed that bullish market is on ground till the price of Bitcoin reach $80,000 before the bearish season will take over the market. I believe, next year 2024 will be more better than this year because there are some signs in the market that make traders to believe that this bullish will reach next year to allow both long term and short term traders embrace massive income.

[Mpamaegbu]

What I want to see in the next cycle, after halving, is how far the peak goes.

I think it will go further than $120k, considering how well its 2021 ATH went vis-a-vis what it was in 2017 bull run.

This cycle has been the most disappointing in terms of returns, failing all forecasts that were made in 2021.

In my books, I think it did well. We didn't even stay in the bear region like we did after the bull run of 2017. Post 2017 was hellish for Bitcoin and its hodlers as it did cause a great scare for many, plummeting to $3,200 from a height of $18k+ and that lingered for over two years.

The only good thing I see is that volatility tends to decrease as well.

Sadly, I think the less volatility even makes it less exciting for many; especially those who trade it.

[ancafe]

I realise when the bull market takes off will also be dependant on price action, for example if there is another black swan event at the start of 2024 then this could result in a delay like in 2020. But otherwise do you generally the bull market will start before or after the halving, or otherwise more or less immediately after the halving, and do you think there will be any other relevant factors other than the halving?

Such is the dynamics of the market and it is always marked by a halving before it reaches its highest price, the calculation of the previous ATH race may be correct, in the six months before the halving bitcoin will increase slowly, but there is always no accuracy in the predictions and usually we only rely on the four year cycle. I think we will see a gradual increase in the next few months and will also see a correction taking place.

There could be delays such as the black swan so that price action is delayed and not in accordance with the previous cycle, but if there is a delay that shifts at most by half a year and the halving moment will be back on track, other factors may also influence but there is no basis as a reference that we can convey because so far no one has been able to prove stronger.

[Reid]

FOMO, so before the halving will happen. But I also want to consider the status of the world economy first. If another pandemic comes out, let's forget about the bull. If we see some light on prices decreasing and the war ending, then we might even see the bull much earlier than 6 months before the halving.
I do believe people have money, but they are saving it in case something worse happen again, like the Covid. They don't want to be left at zero and they learned their lesson from what we have been through.

[rat03gopoh]

I realise when the bull market takes off will also be dependant on price action, for example if there is another black swan event at the start of 2024 then this could result in a delay like in 2020. But otherwise do you generally the bull market will start before or after the halving, or otherwise more or less immediately after the halving, and do you think there will be any other relevant factors other than the halving?

ATH every halving is better to experience delays for months even if it's close to the next halving with several factors such as consolidation, crashes, etc. Back I will bring the reason:

meaning that bitcoin has a 4-year opportunity to aim for a new high and during that time one doesn't stop hoping for some fundamental factors that can support reaching ATH.

Although it has been proven in several halving events, ATH is still a possibility. So just hope that the next time, bitcoin again doesn't disappoint.

[michellee]

If you ask about when the bulls will come, no one will ever know. It can happen next year after the halving. It can also happen at the end of the year and before the halving. There are many possibilities about when bullish will come but even if we don't know, we have to be prepared for it.

Meanwhile, the current price is still around $27k and it is far from the last ATH so it looks like we still have a long way to go to see the bitcoin price start to increase. And when the price starts to increase, we will not realize that it is the beginning of a bullish movement because the price will not go straight to the last ATH but will increase slowly.

But that's just a prediction because we don't know how the bitcoin price will increase in the future. And before that time comes, we have to be ready so we can sell it at the peak price, namely at the next ATH. But I gave my vote to "Less than 6 months after the halving."

[Yaunfitda]

I voted for: After the halving bull market starts.

If I'm not mistaken, this is where the real bull run will happen. Yes, we might see the price going up maybe months before the halving. But for me a bull run is that when the price is like going parabolic and building up to a new all time high.

And base on historical data, new all time high is going to be achieved a year after the halving, so officially the start should be right after that activity, a slow but steady growth leading to 2025, new all time high.

[Ojima-ojo]

Based on the estimate from bitcoinblockhalf.com, the 2024 halving will be end of April with other estimates calculating it as beginning of April, even as early as March.

While not getting too bogged down in the timing which is dependant on whether there continues to be hash rate growth (to bring it forward) or not, when do you think the bull market will start?

First, no one know when exactly the next bull run will begin and also we ave speculation of it estimation to be after a halving cycle which according to the timetable the next bitcoin halving will be around April 2024.

So any moment after the hal ing when the blocksize have been reduced and cyculating bitcoin got limited due to number pf block reward at that time, then there will be high possibility of bitcoin bull to begin.

The last halving was in May 2020 and arguably the bull market started a few months after this, as instead there was consolidation around $9K for several months, whereas in 2016 the bull market more or less started immediately after the July halving, or even arguably around 6 months beforehand as price had already increased over 100% from the lows without a significant correction.

Possibility of having a bull run doesnt rely on Bitcoin halving alone just as you mentioned the 2016 bull run happened before the halving and that shows that Bitcoin price movement can not be predicted, and also it doesn't depend on any thing solely for that to happen, there are several factors that contributes to the triggering of bull market and halving is one of them.

Why halving is much talked about and linked to bull runs is because two characteristics.

1: the block reward reduction
2: the 4 year cycle make it possible for investors to easily calculate and manipulate the market.

[yhiaali3]

I expect the bullish market to start about 6 months before the halving. Of course, it will not be a big rise, but the important moves will start at the end of this year and the beginning of the new year mostly, compared to what happened in the previous halving.

I expect the next halving to be special this time, given the big changes that have occurred in the market, we will certainly see a new ATH that may be 100k. So everyone hopes.