Is the US default a reality?

[DrBeer]

....
You somehow manage to scold totalitarianism in an incomprehensible way for me and at the same time you do not see an alternative to the unipolar model of the world with a single leader. The alternative to the world leadership of the bankrupt US is not the leadership of China, or Russia, or India, or Guatemala, or anyone else. This is not about changing the leader within the framework of the previous paradigm, which has long outlived itself and failed again, but about changing the paradigm itself.

ps Debt-ceiling talks stall amid revolt from Kevin McCarthy's right flank

For me, it is incomprehensible how you deny reality, trying to pass off what you want as reality. I am ready here and now to bet that there will be no problems in the USA, regardless of the development of events, regarding the "usual" dilemma of managing the national debt!

And here's what you have in mind regarding "paradigm change" - please, try to be clear, argumentative and with facts. With facts - without fakes, i.e. without links to Russian/pro-Russian resources. Well, if you can, and not just habitually manipulate "in public" with "clever words"?
I will simplify your task, I will help, as usual
1. Arguments that the US economy and the total power of this state have lost their positions
2. Arguments that there is a real alternative?

Good way! As always, I look forward to your interesting explanations!

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[YUriy1991]

I think the potential for US default depends on a variety of factors, including political dynamics, fiscal policy, economic conditions, and the willingness of policy makers to address the debt ceiling issue and I'm sure Economists will also warn that not paying debts for a long time can plunged the American economy into a deep recession with soaring unemployment. Does this positively work? If the US fails to pay, it is predicted that Bitcoin will increase by more or less by 68%, I want to know too.

[be.open]

And here's what you have in mind regarding "paradigm change" - please, try to be clear, argumentative and with facts. With facts - without fakes, i.e. without links to Russian/pro-Russian resources. Well, if you can, and not just habitually manipulate "in public" with "clever words"?
I will simplify your task, I will help, as usual
1. Arguments that the US economy and the total power of this state have lost their positions
2. Arguments that there is a real alternative?

Good way! As always, I look forward to your interesting explanations!

For me it's easier than you think. Let's try.
1. The US economy and the total power of this state is based on three pillars:
- printing a $100 bill costs the Federal Reserve 17 cents and it's a fucking lucrative business
- "hard power", there are several aircraft carriers with which it is easy to scare the natives from the banana republics
- "soft power", which, through the financing of numerous NGOs, blackmail and bribery of corrupt officials, sows instability, discord and chaos around the world

The scheme worked steadily until the United States believed in itself too much and ran into the wrong guy, namely Russia. After that, something went wrong and over the past year, the share of the dollar in international trade has fallen sharply by 8%, and inflation, which was successfully exported along with tons of hundred-dollar bills to countries with less developed economies and settled there under mattresses in the form of savings, poured back in USA. Now the United States has serious problems that it is not even clear how to solve.

2. It is more convenient for me to formulate conceptual sketches of possible contours of the future world order in my native language, but I think this is not a problem for you.

[Hispo]

I think the potential for US default depends on a variety of factors, including political dynamics, fiscal policy, economic conditions, and the willingness of policy makers to address the debt ceiling issue and I'm sure Economists will also warn that not paying debts for a long time can plunged the American economy into a deep recession with soaring unemployment. Does this positively work? If the US fails to pay, it is predicted that Bitcoin will increase by more or less by 68%, I want to know too.

In my opinion the risk of default is simply being used as a bargain chip by the Republican Party but in the end, even the most radical anti-spending lawmakers know that a default of the USA would be catastrophic for everyone with stakes on the economical growth of the nation and even worldwide.

My prediction is that in the end the Republican lawmakers will approve the new debt ceiling without condition or the Democrats will go for the plan to mint the 1 Trillion Dollar platinum silver.

They cannot allow such predictable economical reversal to happen.

[durop77]

The usa as far as I am aware has defaulted twice prior.   During Woodrow Wilsons presidency and when the usa came off the gold standard.   

Well, apparently it could have been a technical default, since there were no strong repressions. If there was a real default, then everything would fall down like a house of cards.

[be.open]

Meanwhile, China's Top Rating Firm Downgrades US in Echo of Global Rivalry

What does this chinese nigga allow himself?

[durop77]

one of the American channels suggested that the default would be 05.06 and turned on the timer. Therefore, we will monitor what to expect.

[Argoo]

There will be no default in the US. US President Joe Biden and Speaker of the House of Representatives Kevin McCarthy have reached a preliminary agreement to raise the national debt limit of the country. This will allow the States to avoid default. The agreement was announced by the press service of the White House. They noted that, according to Biden, reaching an agreement will also: reduce costs;
protect critical programs.
Biden and Speaker of the House of Representatives Kevin McCarthy have reached a tentative agreement to end the $31.4 trillion government debt ceiling.
Sources:
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.bbc.com/russian/news-65521190&ved=2ahUKEwjrxNrljJr_AhWDhf0HHVFVAU0Qy58BegQIDhAB&usg=AOvVaw3h7NHr2VdeMys6U4ngLEjN
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://vovworld.vn/ru-RU/%25D0%1202579.vov&ved=2ahUKEwjrxNrljJr_AhWDhf0HHVFVAU0QFnoECBoQAQ&usg=AOvVaw0Spg5_LxuwIUG5pkWUG nDZ

[DrBeer]

Meanwhile, China's Top Rating Firm Downgrades US in Echo of Global Rivalry

What does this chinese nigga allow himself?

I also love this kind of subtle humor
I especially enjoy reading North Korean news, ratings and forecasts!
Before watching or reading, I strongly recommend that you definitely take cold water and sedatives with you - it’s almost impossible to stop and stop laughing! Of course, China is far from them, but some are trying ...

By the way, I highly recommend, after such assessments, to find the previous forecasts of these companies. The funny thing is, I used to think too - it’s unlikely that they will write about dummies in the news, but no, in the context of the articles they indicate, and it seems that these are some really significant companies. And if you look at their history, then they didn’t have and won’t have steeper forecasts than “the water is mostly wet” ...
Moreover, one must take into account the current position, where China has decided to put itself in the place of the second poles of the world, and here any means are good to support itself ...

PS Now I'll go on the fence and publish a rating from the world famous, anti-lich, market company: Gold Brilliance Super Luxury International Economics Morgan Rodschild Murdoch analytical galactic company! In terms of the real value of information, it will be commensurate with China Chengxin International Credit Rating Co


UPD There will be no default, we disperse, dedollarization is over! 

[BenCodie]

UPD There will be no default, we disperse, dedollarization is over! 

For now....
The limit has only been increased for up to 2 years and it came with the goal of "reduced government spending". In the meantime, the Fed will continue to conduct "quantitative easing" over the coming years and it will flood the US money supply. In the meantime, politicians will prepare for the default. When a plan is in place (that will most likely NOT benefit the people of the U.S) then they will default. The country will be in the hands of the Fed. The whole country will work like a bank, and the currency will be like credits in a game. A sad game of a grey life for US citizens...while the currency is not usable anywhere else.

[mirakal]

Default in such a large country is impossible, it has many allies and creditors who will help prevent this. A lot of things revolve around the United States, and such a default takes place only if it is, as you wrote, technical. In fact, it doesn't mean anything and it doesn't make sense to move from place to place and so on.

I'm already expecting to read some statements like this. Although it is indeed hard to imagine that USA, a powerful country, will undergo such default but being a large country with lots of allies and creditors will certainly not help them prevent it from happening or at least cannot help the USA in this instance. Since the USA reached its debt-ceiling, I think it is already safe to assume the likelihood of having a default due to their present situation plus there's the move from China and Russia of using the Chinese Yuan in purchasing Petrol which could put some fuel to the fire in-relation of the current situation of the USA.

[DrBeer]

UPD There will be no default, we disperse, dedollarization is over!

For now....
The limit has only been increased for up to 2 years and it came with the goal of "reduced government spending". In the meantime, the Fed will continue to conduct "quantitative easing" over the coming years and it will flood the US money supply. In the meantime, politicians will prepare for the default. When a plan is in place (that will most likely NOT benefit the people of the U.S.) then they will default. The country will be in the hands of the Fed. The whole country will work like a bank, and the currency will be like credits in a game. A sad game of a gray life for US citizens...while the currency is not usable anywhere else.

In real:
- For 2 Years, the topic "look at what debt they have" - leaves the stage, and becomes of no interest to anyone
- In two years, in the worst case, it will simply repeat itself with the same decision. Everyone will watch a great show, someone will raise a populist war, but that's it
- In 2 years, the US economy can really adapt and solve the problem of growing debt. If not, they will print more money, and again the problem will be solved. This is not even a problem, it is most likely to be attributed to the "features" of the US economy.

[BenCodie]

In real:
- For 2 Years, the topic "look at what debt they have" - leaves the stage, and becomes of no interest to anyone

The debt increases the amount of money that needs to be printed. At the time of default, drastic and unconstitutional measures to decrease inflation and monetary supply are taken. Including impositions on the people, and on trade. Yes, people will always look at the debt and say "wow"...rightfully so. However it becomes a much more important topic when a default is on the table.

In real:
- In two years, in the worst case, it will simply repeat itself with the same decision. Everyone will watch a great show, someone will raise a populist war, but that's it

Not true. It is at a detrimental point now where default is truly on the cards and the creditors of the United States are in a position of power to take over the country. This is much different to the past, and in 2 years it will be a much different debate to today.

In real:
- In 2 years, the US economy can really adapt and solve the problem of growing debt. If not, they will print more money, and again the problem will be solved. This is not even a problem, it is most likely to be attributed to the "features" of the US economy.

Not true. The dollar will continue to devalue from monetary policy, yes. However, this will not solve its problems forever. If so, then why would anyone be worrying? I think it would be unwise to believe that raising the debt limit will be raised every 2 years from now.

[NotATether]

Considering how a bill to raise the debt ceiling for two years (?!) is inside the House right now for voting, and the slingshots being fired around by conservatives to try to change it at the last minute, I'm not quite sure what outcome to make out of this situation, but I wouldn't be surprised if at this rate of procrastination and "avoidance tactics", they end up defaulting on their loans.

[durop77]

what people dont realise is although US "owes" other countries $30trillion+
other countries "owe" the us substantial amounts too

an easy option is 1-for-1 cancelation of linked debts between countries

EG if japan hold $1.1trill of US debt. but japan has more then $1trill separately owed TO the us.. they can cencel each others debt thus bring both sides debt totals down

take it one stage further
if japans high DEBT amount of $10trill is owed to multiple countries. the US can do a deal where if the UK cancels its debt with japan. the UK can cancel its loan to the US.
and the US can then further cancel its loan to japan. as a 3 way debt reduction

So I think they have so much money from different patron countries that default is impossible. They can easily do this to distract from other topics, say unemployment.

[gaston castano]

Now all the news is writing about a possible default, is it real in the modern world, or is it information propaganda? How do you feel about this situation and what will happen for the rest of the world, you should be afraid of inflation or subsidence of the entire market. how to act in this situation and not lose money? It is worth now to run to withdraw money from the account or change it to the currency of other states. What kind of alignment awaits and what to analyze in general. Perhaps the extreme situation is a technical default, which does not pose a particular threat, but you need to prepare for non-standard options for the development of events.

the specific actions you should take will depend on your individual circumstances, risk tolerance, and the details of the situation at hand. It is essential to carefully analyze the situation, seek reliable information, and make informed decisions rather than making knee-jerk reactions based on rumors or fear.

[DrBeer]

Real:
- For 2 Years, the topic "look at what debt they have" - leaves the stage, and becomes of no interest to anyone

The debt increases the amount of money that needs to be printed. At the time of default, drastic and unconstitutional measures to decrease inflation and monetary supply are taken. Including impositions on the people, and on trade. Yes, people will always look at the debt and say "wow"...rightfully so. However, it becomes a much more important topic when a default is on the table.

Real:
- In two years, in the worst case, it will simply repeat itself with the same decision. Everyone will watch a great show, someone will raise a populist war, but that's it

not true. It is at a detrimental point now where default is truly on the cards and the creditors of the United States are in a position of power to take over the country. This is much different to the past, and in 2 years it will be a much different debate to today.

Real:
- In 2 years, the US economy can really adapt and solve the problem of growing debt. If not, they will print more money, and again the problem will be solved. This is not even a problem, it is most likely to be attributed to the "features" of the US economy.

not true. The dollar will continue to devalue from monetary policy, yes. However, this will not solve its problems forever. If so, then why would anyone be worried? I think it would be unwise to believe that raising the debt limit will be raised every 2 years from now.

I will not argue, it is pointless, you assess the situation based on the expectation of a default, and you will not accept the arguments. I will write only one thing - NOTHING WILL HAPPEN

And I will answer your answers:
1-3. There is no default and never will be. Now the whole world is preparing for a recession and another global crisis. ALL countries have problems, not the US and the dollar. And that's okay!
2. The seizure of power in the US, especially by "creditors", is a very good joke Are we talking about internal debt? About the outside? Well, try to describe the scenario of "seizure" of power. Halfway through, you yourself will understand the problem of this fantasy.

[ftopikit]

Default in such a large country is impossible, it has many allies and creditors who will help prevent this. A lot of things revolve around the United States, and such a default takes place only if it is, as you wrote, technical. In fact, it doesn't mean anything and it doesn't make sense to move from place to place and so on.

yes, it's too late to run somewhere and it's pointless, if there is a default, we will not affect it in any way.

[be.open]

Meanwhile, China's Top Rating Firm Downgrades US in Echo of Global Rivalry

What does this chinese nigga allow himself?

I also love this kind of subtle humor
I especially enjoy reading North Korean news, ratings and forecasts!
Before watching or reading, I strongly recommend that you definitely take cold water and sedatives with you - it’s almost impossible to stop and stop laughing! Of course, China is far from them, but some are trying ...

By the way, I highly recommend, after such assessments, to find the previous forecasts of these companies. The funny thing is, I used to think too - it’s unlikely that they will write about dummies in the news, but no, in the context of the articles they indicate, and it seems that these are some really significant companies. And if you look at their history, then they didn’t have and won’t have steeper forecasts than “the water is mostly wet” ...
Moreover, one must take into account the current position, where China has decided to put itself in the place of the second poles of the world, and here any means are good to support itself ...

PS Now I'll go on the fence and publish a rating from the world famous, anti-lich, market company: Gold Brilliance Super Luxury International Economics Morgan Rodschild Murdoch analytical galactic company! In terms of the real value of information, it will be commensurate with China Chengxin International Credit Rating Co


UPD There will be no default, we disperse, dedollarization is over! 

You should not think that the US default story is over, it is just beginning. China is the largest holder of US debt after Japan and is gradually reducing its share. The Middle East is also systematically reducing investment in US debt, and increasing investment in US debt, mainly the countries of the Big Seven, which themselves are in debt as if in silks. The exit of Chinese, Arab and Russian money from the US debt will spur inflation in the dollar zone, so the key rate is already high and will remain high, the next four trillion the US government will have to borrow at a high percentage of junk corporate bonds. And the first trillion should be borrowed urgently right now.

[Hispo]

Meanwhile, China's Top Rating Firm Downgrades US in Echo of Global Rivalry

What does this chinese nigga allow himself?

I also love this kind of subtle humor
I especially enjoy reading North Korean news, ratings and forecasts!
Before watching or reading, I strongly recommend that you definitely take cold water and sedatives with you - it’s almost impossible to stop and stop laughing! Of course, China is far from them, but some are trying ...

By the way, I highly recommend, after such assessments, to find the previous forecasts of these companies. The funny thing is, I used to think too - it’s unlikely that they will write about dummies in the news, but no, in the context of the articles they indicate, and it seems that these are some really significant companies. And if you look at their history, then they didn’t have and won’t have steeper forecasts than “the water is mostly wet” ...
Moreover, one must take into account the current position, where China has decided to put itself in the place of the second poles of the world, and here any means are good to support itself ...

PS Now I'll go on the fence and publish a rating from the world famous, anti-lich, market company: Gold Brilliance Super Luxury International Economics Morgan Rodschild Murdoch analytical galactic company! In terms of the real value of information, it will be commensurate with China Chengxin International Credit Rating Co


UPD There will be no default, we disperse, dedollarization is over! 

You should not think that the US default story is over, it is just beginning. China is the largest holder of US debt after Japan and is gradually reducing its share. The Middle East is also systematically reducing investment in US debt, and increasing investment in US debt, mainly the countries of the Big Seven, which themselves are in debt as if in silks. The exit of Chinese, Arab and Russian money from the US debt will spur inflation in the dollar zone, so the key rate is already high and will remain high, the next four trillion the US government will have to borrow at a high percentage of junk corporate bonds. And the first trillion should be borrowed urgently right now.

I would have guessed that even though China is the biggest holder of USA debt, they would not dare to sell it all and affect very deeply the economy. Because, in the end, as far as I understand. China's biggest economical buyer and partner continues to be the United States of America. Sure, they may be strategically trying to find new business points around the world, but they cannot replace the volume of exportation and importation kept with USA yet.

China and USA kind of need each other, and has been that way for a while now.