% idiots among investors

[zasad@]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-15/debt-ceiling-negotiations-have-investors-eyeing-gold-if-us-defaults

"The precious metal is by far the top pick for those seeking protection in case Washington’s game of chicken over the debt ceiling ends in a crash, according to Bloomberg’s latest Markets Live Pulse survey. More than half of finance professionals said gold is what they would buy if the US government fails to honor its obligations."

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But more than 20% of Professional investors and more than 25% of Retail investors will bail out their Treasury and dollar investments. Or I do not understand the meaning of the US default?

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[Eternad]

It’s normal to see that kind of result since most of the so called professional investors still butthurt on Bitcoin because they missed the profit train. Gold is the typical go to assets of most investors that doesn’t have exposure or mislead by mainstream media about Bitcoin since Gold is physical. Most investors in the financial world is still old school when it comes to investment.

I think the result is still good seeing Bitcoin on 3rd rank that overtake USD and YUAN which is the most popular fiat right now. It shows how people value more Bitcoin than worthless fiat which is the goal.

[pooya87]

It is naive to only choose one thing to invest at times where the fiat currencies are dumping with high inflation, whether it is bitcoin alone or gold alone or anything else alone. Of course these days people tend to go back to what is considered a safe haven traditionally and that is gold but over the past 14 years bitcoin has proven to be a very solid investment for the long term specially since it is the only existing currency that has a cap. In fact the more money they print the more people are going to realize what this cap means and right now US national debt is $31.79 trillion dollar and increasing rapidly.
Worst of all is the US total debt to GDP ratio that is 134%, the $5.4 trillion deficit is like a guarantee of success for an investment in anything like gold or bitcoin over the long run.

[boyptc]

Gold is like the standard of assets and reserves and that's why it's being treated as one of the safest assets where people can jump off if they see that it's no longer safe to bet for their fiat.

But look, base on that bar graph Bitcoin is the third and I'm more than happy to see that with 3 digits of respondents.

Well aside from Bitcoin on the chart, if I'm also asked which currency I'll jump my assets then I'd probably said JPY.

[SquirrelJulietGarden]

Gold is like the standard of assets and reserves and that's why it's being treated as one of the safest assets where people can jump off if they see that it's no longer safe to bet for their fiat.

Gold was no longer used as a gold standard since the Great Depression and after World War II.

Gold standard history. It was reinstalled later but was abandoned again since 1971. That metal is still considered as very precious asset for investors and we see why Bitcoin is considered as a digital gold.

Bitcoin is better than gold as it is portable with your private keys. You don't have to depend on banks, vaults to store your golds, log in your account and make exchange of gold to cash. You don't have any key for your gold and will lose it if bankruptcy occurs.

[SamReomo]

Those investors are quite smart in choosing gold over anything else because gold is the safest option in financial disasters that's going to take place anytime in coming months. It's a precious metal and if dollar losses its value the gold will get pumped and specially for the ones who bought it with dollar will gain edge over others. The investors will make profits with peace of mind, and that's a win-win situation.

Those investors who decided to invest in Bitcoin are also among the smart ones because in such financial collapses the Bitcoin is expected to go higher in value due to the investments that the investors put into it. There is also a huge chance of a bull run in the coming months and the ones who invest in it can multiply their investment with the king of crypto world.

The treasuries are also okay in such times because they can get such pumps as well in financial hard times. However, I would never prefer them over gold or Bitcoin because both of those are the best as a investment in such times and their returns on investments are quite higher with those two.

[pawanjain]

It is naive to only choose one thing to invest at times where the fiat currencies are dumping with high inflation, whether it is bitcoin alone or gold alone or anything else alone. Of course these days people tend to go back to what is considered a safe haven traditionally and that is gold but over the past 14 years bitcoin has proven to be a very solid investment for the long term specially since it is the only existing currency that has a cap. In fact the more money they print the more people are going to realize what this cap means and right now US national debt is $31.79 trillion dollar and increasing rapidly.
Worst of all is the US total debt to GDP ratio that is 134%, the $5.4 trillion deficit is like a guarantee of success for an investment in anything like gold or bitcoin over the long run.

You are right but we do not know if the option to choose multiple options was provided when the survey was being conducted.
Being professional investors they would obviously know the value of diversification and I think most of these investors would actually diversify their investments.
In that case, bitcoin would also see a significant jump in it's price. Even a small % of them choose to invest in bitcoin the price jump would be huge.

[royalfestus]

I find it difficult to comprehend the default scenario that arises when the USA reaches its debt ceiling. Who exactly does the USA owe money to, and why do some individuals consistently engage in spreading misinformation and creating confusion regarding the implications of US debt? While gold is indeed a valuable asset, there are numerous other government assets with substantial liquidity that people often overlook.

[EarnOnVictor]

I believe you know the meaning of the US default, but the only thing I would like to correct regarding a caption on the image attached is that the US debt ceiling has happened already, it happened sometime on January, 19th if I am correct. It's the default that has not happened and I don't think they would let that happen as it would be catastrophic to the USA, US businesses, allies and American people.

To further with, I didn't expect different statistics from the first three assets shown (Gold, Treasuries and Bitcoin). It might vary slightly when surveys are made on them over and over again, the results will always look like that.

[safar1980]

I believe you know the meaning of the US default, but the only thing I would like to correct regarding a caption on the image attached is that the US debt ceiling has happened already, it happened sometime on January, 19th if I am correct. It's the default that has not happened and I don't think they would let that happen as it would be catastrophic to the USA, US businesses, allies and American people.

To further with, I didn't expect different statistics from the first three assets shown (Gold, Treasuries and Bitcoin). It might vary slightly when surveys are made on them over and over again, the results will always look like that.

How are investors going to return their investments after a default if the US refuses to pay treasuries?
In Russia in 1998 there was a default, many banks went bankrupt, who bought government bonds. Investors lost 50-100% of their investment. The main owners of treasuries are banks, companies, US pension and insurance funds, and the Fed has the largest share.

[boyptc]

Gold is like the standard of assets and reserves and that's why it's being treated as one of the safest assets where people can jump off if they see that it's no longer safe to bet for their fiat.

Gold was no longer used as a gold standard since the Great Depression and after World War II.

Gold standard history. It was reinstalled later but was abandoned again since 1971. That metal is still considered as very precious asset for investors and we see why Bitcoin is considered as a digital gold.

It may not be the standard based on that wikipedia you've shared but as set in the minds of each individuals, it is and still one of the safest routes into investing and getting into assets.

Bitcoin is better than gold as it is portable with your private keys. You don't have to depend on banks, vaults to store your golds, log in your account and make exchange of gold to cash.

We all knew that but there are investors that want it the conservative and typical way of investing and that's through gold, jewelries, real estates, other currencies and stuff.

We know that it's a liquid asset and can be sold anytime from everywhere with just a few clicks away.

You don't have any key for your gold and will lose it if bankruptcy occurs.

As long as you have it, the value it has got remains.

[wxa7115]

Gold is like the standard of assets and reserves and that's why it's being treated as one of the safest assets where people can jump off if they see that it's no longer safe to bet for their fiat.

But look, base on that bar graph Bitcoin is the third and I'm more than happy to see that with 3 digits of respondents.

Well aside from Bitcoin on the chart, if I'm also asked which currency I'll jump my assets then I'd probably said JPY.

Gold has a massive advantage as it has a history of being a store of value which goes as far back as thousands of years, so even if the fiat system is the dominant one at the moment, people have not forgotten this lesson humans have paid a heavy price to learn.

However what is surprising is that even if it is a distant third bitcoin appears on that list, this shows that the new generations despite the lack of financial literacy understand enough about how the economy works to be suspicious about it, and they realize the potential bitcoin has as a store of value under those circumstances.

[Latviand]

It is naive to only choose one thing to invest at times where the fiat currencies are dumping with high inflation

Totally, but the poll is actually sensible in a way. Gold is valuable and it can easily be traded if push comes to shove, it's naive yes but it's ignorant of us to say so especially if we don't know each individual investors financial standing, maybe they can afford to fully diversify their money so they just want to go for the sure shot investment.

I am a supporter of the idea that you always need to work on yourself. And trading is an industry where you need to work twice as hard. Too bad a lot of people don't take this into account.

You don't have to work hard as much, what you need to do when you are trading is that you need to be smart about how you do trades, do TA, gain experience and almost always go for safe routes and know when to do risky trades, that way, you don't need to work as hard as you should.

[adaseb]

Well if they default what else can you really buy? You can buy gold or even some foreign currencies. Stocks will be hard because they will most likely also fall due to the huge unemployment rate due to the default.

Keep in mind this won’t happen. Every year they have these scary tactics but in the end the debt is moved higher and everything goes on as before. Don’t know why people expect them to default, they will print their way out of this.

[slaman29]

OP I would also buy dollar of course presuming I am the type of person that gambles on outcomes like these.

Obviously not immediately but when the dollar crashes because of default, I would buy it a lot. Knowing it would for sure bounce back.

You know when Trump was in power everyone thought dollar was eventually going to crash (US almost defaulted like several times also) but then we saw last year the strongest USD ever despite all the money printing they went ahead with interest rates.

Bitcoin I buy ALL the time anyway so I don't get why people think it's a good idea to buy BTC only when dollar crashes

[zasad@]

OP I would also buy dollar of course presuming I am the type of person that gambles on outcomes like these.

Obviously not immediately but when the dollar crashes because of default, I would buy it a lot. Knowing it would for sure bounce back.

You know when Trump was in power everyone thought dollar was eventually going to crash (US almost defaulted like several times also) but then we saw last year the strongest USD ever despite all the money printing they went ahead with interest rates.

Bitcoin I buy ALL the time anyway so I don't get why people think it's a good idea to buy BTC only when dollar crashes

I don't believe in a US default because it will kill a lot of US companies.Only big banks and companies will survive.
China has about a trillion dollars worth of treasuries and Japan has about the same. The US has a good debt-to-GDP ratio. The US can punish China with sanctions if there is a war with Taiwan, but what about other creditors?

[hugeblack]

Bitcoin is currently far from being a fierce competitor to gold, the market value of bitcoin is less than a trillion dollars and it is less than 20 years old, it is weaker even than companies such as Aramco, Apple, Alphabet, and other technology giants.

Therefore, I am not surprised that most people chose gold and did not choose bitcoin, but I do not understand why they chose treasury bills or any cash deposits such as the Swiss franc, the Chinese yuan, or any other currency linked to the dollar.

So we cannot say that they are idiots.

[rby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-15/debt-ceiling-negotiations-have-investors-eyeing-gold-if-us-defaults

My interest is in the middle of the  infographic. I saw dollars in the middle sharing same poll opinion with bitcoin, just for retailers who chosed bitcoin slightly above dollars. While people are seeing a means to remain in value when dollar defaults, I am seeing the level of bitcoin awareness and adoption.
While I wouldn't know the price of bitcoin when dollar will default, I will not be so confident that I will buy bitcoin. But buying a crashed dollar can give a huge profit in the future.

[avikz]

This is the time when we all need to remember the teachings of Mr. Robert Kiyosaki. Invest in God's money. I am glad to see that people are actually considering this. Gold and other precious metals are the best bet against any kind of recession. If you take historical lesson, you will see Gold has never failed as a capital protection tool. If US defaults, Gold will skyrocket almost immediately.

Bitcoin is still uncertain. No one knows how they are going to react during a recession. So a small percentage of your portfolio can become handy. Let's not think about who are stupid or not.

[Nrcewker]

Many people have different opinions. The reason for various answers is here due to the information they have on that particular asset. As here we are in a Bitcoin forum, so if we see anything against Bitcoins, we will feel a bit upset, but the people who have chosen gold are just more connected towards gold, or aren’t aware of Bitcoins advantages. So yes blaming them and calling them fool will be really unnecessary to be honest. This is just my way of thinking.