Bitcoin price bouncing from 200 Week MA

[dragonvslinux]

As can be seen from the chart below, Bitcoin bounced last week from the 200 Week MA (blue line) currently at $26.3K. This is now the third week price has tested this level as new support, but do you think it will hold?



Earlier in the month I didn't think it would act as much support, as only recently in February did it act as resistance for a couple of weeks, however this was arguably came from the 50 Week MA - purple line - that was trending downwards in bearish formation. Now the 50 WMA is trending back to the upside for the first time since 2021 with the 20 Week MA due to cross the 200 WMA in the coming weeks.

So far price has corrected around -16% from the yearly highs of $31K which is considerably less than the 20%+ correction from $25K to $20K earlier in the year. I still think a 20%-25% correction remains possible, which would be relatively normal after a 100% increase in recent months, taking price to around $23K to $25K, but so far on the Weekly time-frame price is looking optimistic for now.

What are your thoughts? Do you think the local low is in after the recent bounce from $26K to $28K, or does Bitcoin have further to correct before continuing to the upside?

[1714772835]

1714772835

[dragonvslinux]

Also worth noting that yesterday there were $44m short liquidations when price reached $28K, which was the biggest short squeeze in over a month. While this highlights that there were a lot of bears trying to short the price of Bitcoin, likely with relatively high leverage, this does arguably open the door for more shorts to enter the market, now they have been wiped out.

For now however, the Long/Short Ratio remains relatively balanced at 0.98, even slightly favouring the bulls.

[adaseb]

I think the 200WMA lost its importance when it failed to hold last year. I got lucky with the 200 WMA during COVID crash and got a good average. Bought again last year when it touched and it was definitely not even close to support. Completely broke thru it.

So right now, especially being So flat, I don’t think it’s of any importance.

[gunhell16]

If I look at the movement of the value of bitcoin today on the chart, bitcoin can increase by 29k$ to 30k$, we will know that tomorrow. Because of the graph, only two things can happen, either the value decreases or increases.

In the image of the graph, traders seem to be able to see if Bitcoin's price value is going up. But when there is a recession in the US because of inflation, that's where a recession can actually occur. If that's the case, you can drop 23-25l$ to be fully priced.

[dragonvslinux]

I think the 200WMA lost its importance when it failed to hold last year. I got lucky with the 200 WMA during COVID crash and got a good average. Bought again last year when it touched and it was definitely not even close to support. Completely broke thru it.

I generally agree and have been saying this since it broke as support last year, as overall it failed to act as support nor resistance. Arguably it didn't act as resistance this year either (as referenced in OP), and it could be said that the 20 Week MA was what recently supported price from around $25.8K as opposed to the 200 WMA. It's only real significance is that it's close to an average 4-year price, so a good DCA price.

So right now, especially being So flat, I don’t think it’s of any importance.

As for the claim that it's flat, it's still rising, even if not as aggressively as in previous years. For example by the end of the year it will be priced around $30K, which would be +20% within about 6 months, which is quite a reasonable increase. As long as price remains above $10K it will also continue to rise, as currently is replacing candles from Summer 2019 with current Weekly candles for reference sake.

[redwine49]

I think the 200WMA lost its importance when it failed to hold last year. I got lucky with the 200 WMA during COVID crash and got a good average. Bought again last year when it touched and it was definitely not even close to support. Completely broke thru it.

So right now, especially being So flat, I don’t think it’s of any importance.

yes, i think the cross between 50 MA and 200 MA is importain because it's gonna tell us where bitcoin will go. but the question is when and where.
the US inflation rate isn't good but the good news it's going down now

[dragonvslinux]

I think the 200WMA lost its importance when it failed to hold last year. I got lucky with the 200 WMA during COVID crash and got a good average. Bought again last year when it touched and it was definitely not even close to support. Completely broke thru it.

So right now, especially being So flat, I don’t think it’s of any importance.

yes, i think the cross between 50 MA and 200 MA is importain because it's gonna tell us where bitcoin will go. but the question is when and where.

That is a very long-way away. Even if price were to go to $50K this year, it'd still take until the end of the year for these moving averages to cross-over. If I had to guess it would therefore be towards the end of the year if price continues to the upside, otherwise sometime next year if there is more consolidation this year. Given the 50 WMA has never crossed the 200 WMA in Bitcoin history, the only comparison would be something like the 50 & 100 WMAs crossovers. Notably in 2019 it took until the end of the year until these crossed back over, but that time price had already corrected by 50%.

In summary it will be important for the long-term start of a new bull market, but as for whether price continues to the upside or not this year it's more or less irrelevant.

[hugeblack]

Stability above 30k as it was a support level for a long time is the problem, so I think we have reached the breakeven point where the price cannot exceed the range of 26.3k as a bottom and 32k as a top, even the news coming from the Federal Reserve no longer moves the markets significantly, so without any news I don't expect anything to happen, at least for the next three months.

[redwine49]

Stability above 30k as it was a support level for a long time is the problem, so I think we have reached the breakeven point where the price cannot exceed the range of 26.3k as a bottom and 32k as a top, even the news coming from the Federal Reserve no longer moves the markets significantly, so without any news I don't expect anything to happen, at least for the next three months.

we will see what happen next. no, i think this is the support level 27k if we fall below 21k it will be disasster. as long as bitcoin can't break 36k i remain bearish.
the USD inflation rate is 5% per month. this is not good for crypto too and tether is rock and roll starting from january this year, while the other stablecoin reduce their number of tokens

[dragonvslinux]

As an update, price bounced found support from the 200 WMA for the fourth week in a row, but unable to sustain prices higher than $28K as price continues to consolidate:



To me it still looks like $27K to $30K is continuing to act as a distribution zone, with the next accumulation zone around $23K. Worst case there is Ichimoku cloud support around $20K.

[Yatsan]

As an update, price bounced found support from the 200 WMA for the fourth week in a row, but unable to sustain prices higher than $28K as price continues to consolidate:



To me it still looks like $27K to $30K is continuing to act as a distribution zone, with the next accumulation zone around $23K. Worst case there is Ichimoku cloud support around $20K.

Really hard to make a position at this moment. Price move sideways as usual but I guess a more volatile one. Price would reach $28k then fall $27-26.6k. Also with speculations of market price reaching $20k to fill the CME gap. Gigen that there are many speculations which revolves around this industry, I think it would be much better to wait until a more visible trend line appears before maaking a long position. But since the price is on sideways, it is quite good for scalp trades; jist manage the risk of how prices move at this moment. One thing I have observed as well are altcoins reaching their highest price since March and April on the current year. But I doubt things would be consistent; it is more of a bull trap.

[justdimin]

Stability above 30k as it was a support level for a long time is the problem, so I think we have reached the breakeven point where the price cannot exceed the range of 26.3k as a bottom and 32k as a top, even the news coming from the Federal Reserve no longer moves the markets significantly, so without any news I don't expect anything to happen, at least for the next three months.

we will see what happen next. no, i think this is the support level 27k if we fall below 21k it will be disasster. as long as bitcoin can't break 36k i remain bearish.
the USD inflation rate is 5% per month. this is not good for crypto too and tether is rock and roll starting from january this year, while the other stablecoin reduce their number of tokens

Obviously, it is because we have stayed on that price for a very long time now but in case the price fell off to $21k, I wouldn't totally say that it was a disaster since it was just a $6k drop and there are much worse than it e.g a $15k or $10k drop but people will just use to it eventually and will realize that it was a special opportunity given to them. Don't worry, the $36k that you assume is only easy for BTC.

Remember we already crossed $30k last time but even if not $36k, let say $35k is only the max we get for a while, I will still consider this a bullish move. A real bearish move is when the price moves in a downward position. There are inflations but I think it's also the reason on why people invest in crypto.

[imamusma]

Obviously, it is because we have stayed on that price for a very long time now but in case the price fell off to $21k, I wouldn't totally say that it was a disaster since it was just a $6k drop and there are much worse than it e.g a $15k or $10k drop but people will just use to it eventually and will realize that it was a special opportunity given to them. Don't worry, the $36k that you assume is only easy for BTC.

Remember we already crossed $30k last time but even if not $36k, let say $35k is only the max we get for a while, I will still consider this a bullish move. A real bearish move is when the price moves in a downward position. There are inflations but I think it's also the reason on why people invest in crypto.

There should be no worries, but some people may have to adjust their investment plans during a correction.
I'm hoping to do some accumulation at the early of the month especially after the bitcoin price undergoing correction from the Binance case, yes $25k is support which I consider weak for now and I'm waiting for $24k to come. The bitcoin price is still moving sideways and of course not everyone will think this is negative.

About of $35k, I don't think I'm expecting it hit very soon before the $30k resistance is hit again. Let's hope the market does better ahead of the halving, it is very likely.

[STT]

I voted yes but phrasing moving average as support is not especially correct, its not a solid amount of volume but more about momentum.   If we run contrary to this large tide or wave, it should mean we do bounce or retract but its not any absolute support by itself I think.
  I'd rather look at the closing week price for Feb and going back a few other times this has been the peak since we fell especially in June last year.  So now that area should be support, its about this price 24k or so.

[Captain Corporate]

If we keep pushing this much then we are going to end up with trouble one way or another, I mean it may not be right away tomorrow, but it looks as if people are not worried about anything at all and willing to let it go down, there is no "wish" to keep it high, I mean sure maybe wishing but nobody spending their money for it. Which is why its obvious why we are dropping so easily. Obviously the whole Binance and SEC thing had a huge part in this, but there weren't any big buyers or buying rush before that neither, so we can't put the whole blame on that. We need some sort of hype, a market rush so that people would be more willing to buy, when that doesn't exists, there is really nothing that would make the price go up and this is why I believe that we shouldn't be worried about it neither, just let it be as it is currently, eventually it will get better.

[TravelMug]

If we keep pushing this much then we are going to end up with trouble one way or another, I mean it may not be right away tomorrow, but it looks as if people are not worried about anything at all and willing to let it go down, there is no "wish" to keep it high, I mean sure maybe wishing but nobody spending their money for it. Which is why its obvious why we are dropping so easily. Obviously the whole Binance and SEC thing had a huge part in this, but there weren't any big buyers or buying rush before that neither, so we can't put the whole blame on that. We need some sort of hype, a market rush so that people would be more willing to buy, when that doesn't exists, there is really nothing that would make the price go up and this is why I believe that we shouldn't be worried about it neither, just let it be as it is currently, eventually it will get better.

And I guess the OP didn't take that in consideration, and so as much as we are bullish about bitcoin, there are events like SEC vs Binance that will really affect the price negatively. And now we are in the $25k'ish, although I expect the price to go down hard because of this negative news, at least the market is still holding. But let's see, I have a feeling that this is just a temporary effect and soon we might see the price going back to $27k again. As for SEC and US government, they are turning to be anti-crypto now and it starts with their attack on exchanges like Binance or in the past months, Coinbase.

[adaseb]

Again we broke thru the 20WMA. However it’s still the beginning of the week and we can still close above the 200WMA. However even if that happens I don’t think it’s due to the weekly average holding support.

Like Fibonacci or Elliot waves, these types of indicators don’t work well when there is a fundamental event like today with the binance news. Maybe if it wasn’t for this news we would be at $27k but instead are in for a lot of regulatory uncertainty.

[palle11]

Whenever there are fundamental news, the price direction is not certain. This week we have seen some breaks spontaneously and whether that will stand or not is still at nobody's decision. Today the price recovery is gradually building up , perhaps their could be panic from the binance happenings that may still push price down in the course of the week. I expect MA at the longtime to show a clear direction but not this week, we can expect more unstable pricing for this week.

[dragonvslinux]

Again we broke thru the 20WMA. However it’s still the beginning of the week and we can still close above the 200WMA. However even if that happens I don’t think it’s due to the weekly average holding support.

Indeed. It's starting to look like a short-term topic, even if it remains possible to reclaim with average by the end of the week. Personally, I'm not so convinced right now.

Like Fibonacci or Elliot waves, these types of indicators don’t work well when there is a fundamental event like today with the binance news. Maybe if it wasn’t for this news we would be at $27k but instead are in for a lot of regulatory uncertainty.

Without this news that certainly created a sell-off, I was never convinced that the 200 WMA would hold as support, nor $25K for that matter. I think price would have therefore broken below eventually, even if recent news has accelerated this reality. To me, the real volume & MA support is around $23K, this is where most of the volume is and where the 200 Day MA has gotten above.

[dragonvslinux]

As an update, price is now currently back above the 200 Week MA and after so far reversing most of yesterday's sell-off already, despite another lawsuit issued against Coinbase:



While not confirmed as a support level until the candle closes end of week, on the 6hr chart there is certainly volume to support bullish demand:



Even on low-volume exchange like Bitstamp this is the most volume in a 6hr candle since mid-March. Personally I like the fact that price is currently reclaiming not only the 200 Week MA, but also the 20 WMA, as the latter is the MA that price was supported by in February at $20K (even if also was the 200 Day MA at the time). While price may well still go lower in the coming days, it's good to see the buying pressure at least.

In other news the SEC must be fuming. The timing for these lawsuits was during a corrective period for Bitcoin where the bulls looked weak and could easily be an opportunity to take advantage of bearish selling pressure. Anyone in the know what have been shorting the market prior to these announcements, but so it's starting to look like a mistake as price reverses back to the upside with bullish volume.