77% into the next Bitcoin halving

[alastantiger]

Chart Source: https://charts.bitbo.io/halving-progress/
Real time Bitcoin halving progress shows that we are already 77% into the next Bitcoin halving. My friends are excited and have already started stacking up more Bitcoin in optimistic anticipation that when the price increases as has been predicted already that they will be able to take profits or their return on investment would be 150%. But then, no one truly knows if the price would increase or not. With the current nature of the cryptocurrency market where competition is stiff between Bitcoin and other top cryptocurrency no one knows if the demand for Bitcoin would increase which in turns increases the price. No one knows if there would be some crazy regulations somewhere that would affect the price. No one knows if some crypto firm that is already over leveraged would declare bankruptcy within that time and then Bitcoin's price doesn't rise more than 5%. We are all acting in good faith that everything would run smoothly, we'd take profits and everyone is happy in the end.

This sounds so pessimistic but haven't you thought about it like this too? The what ifs and what if nots?

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[mk4]

Bitcoin's price doesn't rise more than 5%. We are all acting in good faith that everything would run smoothly, we'd take profits and everyone is happy in the end.

Because reality doesn't happen that way. There will always be people that will lose a trade even when talking about a long-term hold. Also taking note that Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency markets are no-where near deserve to be called efficient or "smooth". It's one of the most inefficient markets out there due to how undervalued useful things are and how overvalued crappy things are.

[paid2]

Real time Bitcoin halving progress shows that we are already 77% into the next Bitcoin halving.

Yeap halving must happen around mid-April 2024.
Unlike a lot of people, I'm not particularly looking forward to it. Block rewards are going to be halved, and I'd have been happy to keep 6.25 BTC of block reward for a few more years  I'm half-joking, it would obviously be contradictory to sincerely want that, I see every halving as being extremely positive for the deflationary aspect of Bitcoin, which is one of its essences after all.

We are all acting in good faith that everything would run smoothly, we'd take profits and everyone is happy in the end.

I don't agree with that. Those who understand the market objectively understand very well that nothing can ever be taken for granted, and will be the opposite of thinking that the market is smooth and predictable. Nobody knows, only those who don't understand their investments are 100% sure of themselves. Even if the previous halvings and the following 12 months (especially) have produced great results in terms of FIAT value, we have no guarantee that this is a foregone conclusion.

This sounds so pessimistic but haven't you thought about it like this too? The what ifs and what if nots?

1 BTC = 1 BTC, this is the only real answer, no matter what is happening. I am like you, I would like to see a BTC with a high usd value, but this is not the priority. The only priority is to have access to more freedom from a financial point of view. If BTC is high in terms of fiat value, great, we could be rich, if not, it wouldn't matter after all.

[DeathAngel]

Fireworks & major parabolic upturn coming in the next 2 years incoming. Let’s hope we put the last 18 months behind us now & start a new bull run. Hopefully we don’t go into a deep recession or something because the last thing we need is to see the price suppressed like what I believe happened in 2021. Better times are coming, let’s sit back & enjoy the party.

[fenixosup]

Looks like we will achieve my target - 100k - next post halving bull run. Will need to make a hard decision to sell my btc at 100k as planned or not...

[The Cryptovator]

Bitcoin appears to be relatively stable at the moment and is gradually increasing in value. However, the pace of its movement is quite slow. Assuming there isn't a barrage of negative news, Bitcoin's price is expected to rise further during the halving. Comparing Bitcoin to other altcoins is not something I agree with, as Bitcoin continues to exhibit higher demand than any other alternative cryptocurrencies. It's worth noting that the crypto market has become somewhat centralized due to the dominance of centralized exchanges. I don't anticipate any major incidents occurring prior to the halving, as such an event could potentially cause another market downturn.

[JayTrain]

Investing in Bitcoin or any cryptocurrency involves inherent uncertainties. While the Bitcoin halving event has historically impacted its price, it's important to recognize that market dynamics can be unpredictable. Factors such as market competition, regulatory developments, and unforeseen events can influence the price of Bitcoin. It's crucial to approach investments with a balanced perspective, considering potential risks alongside potential rewards. Diversification and staying informed about market trends and news can help make more informed investment decisions.

[Zaguru12]

With the current nature of the cryptocurrency market where competition is stiff between Bitcoin and other top cryptocurrency no one knows if the demand for Bitcoin would increase which in turns increases the price. No one knows if there would be some crazy regulations somewhere that would affect the price.

Firstly I don’t think bitcoin is and will be threatened by the Alticoins. Bitcoin will certainly be in high demand towards the end of the year due to the upcoming halving, although alticoins will also follow suit since they also go bullish in direction proportion with bitcoin. But the demand for bitcoin will be higher because people will certainly be looking more into the safest and less risky option even if they are in for profit.

The only thing that would be the stumbling block for bitcoin not to go fully bullish will be stiff regulations by many countries against it. But certainly with the news from China, it doesn’t seems that things would head in that direction, although the Chinese are just one country. Another thing could be a sever recession before halving which would prompt people into selling off their holdings, and that is not coming too soon according to economists.

[hatshepsut93]

But then, no one truly knows if the price would increase or not. With the current nature of the cryptocurrency market where competition is stiff between Bitcoin and other top cryptocurrency no one knows if the demand for Bitcoin would increase which in turns increases the price.

Bitcoin is not competing with other coins for investors. Bitcoin is the most safe cryptocurrency, everything else is a huge gamble with negative expected value. Altcoins to Bitcoin is what penny stocks are to Apple.

#1 reason why the bull run could be underwhelming is the fact that over 95% of the total supply is already mined, so further reduction of emission plays smaller and smaller role in forming market supply. The holders who missed their chance to dump at $60k+ the last time will do it now if the price will fail to skyrocket past that level.

[Mr.suevie]

Investing in Bitcoin or any cryptocurrency involves inherent uncertainties. While the Bitcoin halving event has historically impacted its price, it's important to recognize that market dynamics can be unpredictable. Factors such as market competition, regulatory developments, and unforeseen events can influence the price of Bitcoin. It's crucial to approach investments with a balanced perspective, considering potential risks alongside potential rewards. Diversification and staying informed about market trends and news can help make more informed investment decisions.

I guess you are right but the massive anticipation has made most new investors who are eager to sell off due to the proposed rise in price during the halving filled with anxiousness of the good news that bitcoin is actually coming to a period where your saved coins could yeild huge profits but everyone is just forgetting the fact that there is still a possibility that this fact can still be influenced by many things in the crypto ecosystem so if I were them I would just rather stay neutral and see what the market brings during next run on the bitcoin market.

[Hyphen(-)]

But then, no one truly knows if the price would increase or not. With the current nature of the cryptocurrency market where competition is stiff between Bitcoin and other top cryptocurrency no one knows if the demand for Bitcoin would increase which in turns increases the price.

With the current state of the Bitcoin market, there is reason to believe that the price will rise soon.

Regardless of market conditions, Bitcoin is always in control; thus, there is no competition between Bitcoin and Altcoin. Even though some individuals prefer to acquire altcoins because they believe they will make more money than Bitcoin, they still look up to Bitcoin because the price of other coins is determined by the price of Bitcoin.

[Gozie51]

My friends are excited and have already started stacking up more Bitcoin in optimistic anticipation that when the price increases as has been predicted already that they will be able to take profits or their return on investment would be 150%. But then, no one truly knows if the price would increase or not. With the current nature of the cryptocurrency market where competition is stiff between Bitcoin and other top cryptocurrency no one knows if the demand for Bitcoin would increase which in turns increases the price. No one knows if there would be some crazy regulations somewhere that would affect the price. No one knows if some crypto firm that is already over leveraged would declare bankruptcy within that time and then Bitcoin's price doesn't rise more than 5%. We are all acting in good faith that everything would run smoothly, we'd take profits and everyone is happy in the end.

This sounds so pessimistic but haven't you thought about it like this too? The what ifs and what if nots?

Your friends seem more optimistic to have started investing in bitcoin and so should be someone who has followed the history of the effect of bitcoin halving especially after during 6 months - 1 year. Before the past halvings, there has always been fud that tends to instill fear on investors but only the strong willed invest for the long run and afterwards benefit from it. For example during the 2016 halving, there was the China struggle announcing ban on ico and bitcoin transaction and that caused the fear then and bitcoin price fluctuated between $600 - $700 in 2016 and after one year in 2017, 17th December it got an ATH of $20,089.

2020–2021 bubbles. From 8 to 12 March 2020, the price of Bitcoin fell by 30 percent from $8,901 to $6,206. By October 2020, Bitcoin was worth approximately $13,200.

Likewise we also remember the third halving was in 2020 which was characterized by COVID-19, despite all challenges of economic stagnation, it was believed that social distancing worked in favour of online digital marketing and advertising, that led to the growth of bitcoin to an ATH of $64k. The next halving is around April or May 2024 , with my experience so far I don't think fud stop bitcoin price from over taking its previous ATH before another halving.  So it is a choice to invest or stay out

[BIT-BENDER]

Bitcoin appears to be relatively stable at the moment and is gradually increasing in value. However, the pace of its movement is quite slow. Assuming there isn't a barrage of negative news, Bitcoin's price is expected to rise further during the halving. Comparing Bitcoin to other altcoins is not something I agree with, as Bitcoin continues to exhibit higher demand than any other alternative cryptocurrencies. It's worth noting that the crypto market has become somewhat centralized due to the dominance of centralized exchanges. I don't anticipate any major incidents occurring prior to the halving, as such an event could potentially cause another market downturn.

Yes although the rise seen in Bitcoin recently is not something we should be too excited about and I would not relate this little rise to the coming Bitcoin halving happening next year, I also believe their would lots of even that would happen before next year.

The halving has started to create much trends now and we should be expecting more people to join in soon, I believe more users would start to buy and keep Bitcoin in anticipation for a bull run.

But how would it be if The Bitcoin halving doesn't bring forth a bull run, is this something that can never happen, I would love to hear the opinion of other on this possibility.

[royalfestus]

The 150% increase falls significantly short of Bitcoin's previous all-time high, leading me to believe that this estimation underestimates the potential price surge this time around. Various factors influencing the global economy, particularly within the United States, contribute to a sense of cautious optimism for the upcoming bull run.

[JoyMarsha]

Each time I look at the price of Bitcoin, with the way it keeps fluctuating around a stagnant price of $27k-28k for a long, I try as much to remind myself that better times are coming. It won't be long before we'll see it happen. What will be will be. It's just a matter of time before the halving season and the bull run will come knocking at the door of the crypto sphere. For now, let's diligently build up our bitcoin holdings and wait for that to materialize. Since the price of bitcoin always rises during bull runs, the price of bitcoin is expected to soar soon than the previous bull runs that have already happened

[OcTradism]

Chart Source: https://charts.bitbo.io/halving-progress/
Real time Bitcoin halving progress shows that we are already 77% into the next Bitcoin halving.

We are in a calm period before a next halving and before a next parabolic curve. Reward Era Comparison can help you comparing some latest cycles and the on-going cycle.

Will the parabolic storm come back? It will do come back certainly.

With another view, you can Compare bull markets.

When price is in a bear market, Dollar Cost Averaging is best. https://dcabtc.com/. DCA is perfect when bottom is found and I think we already saw the bottom of 2022 and 2023 bear market.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

I am looking forward to seeing how the next post-halving cycle develops, as this one disappointed expectations, and based on what happens in the next one we can get an idea of what is to come in the subsequent ones.

Will the parabolic storm come back? It will do come back certainly.

Well, the parabolic of this cycle has only given 3.5x the maximum of the previous cycle, it has certainly been the least parabolic of all the cycles, so I want to see what happens in the next one, because if the maximum return is 3.5 or less we can already get an idea that we are not going to have parabolic returns in the future. Probably good returns, yes, but with lower volatility, which is not a bad thing at all.

[Onset]

Honestly I don’t think anything in this world can shake a bull run so hard it never recovers. Typically, bull runs have always been kinda invincible..

Remember, halving means Bitcoin gets twice as hard to mine. It’s likely gonna surprise us all.

[OcTradism]

I am looking forward to seeing how the next post-halving cycle develops, as this one disappointed expectations, and based on what happens in the next one we can get an idea of what is to come in the subsequent ones.

Not all cycles are the same and with future halvings when block rewards become smaller and Bitcoin price becomes more expensive, effects on price from Bitcoin halvings would be smaller.

Well, the parabolic of this cycle has only given 3.5x the maximum of the previous cycle, it has certainly been the least parabolic of all the cycles, so I want to see what happens in the next one, because if the maximum return is 3.5 or less we can already get an idea that we are not going to have parabolic returns in the future. Probably good returns, yes, but with lower volatility, which is not a bad thing at all.

Parobolic curves will occur with each halving. Only the growth intensity will be different. Very big in the past and will be smaller in future, it is what I believe about effects of future halvings on Bitcoin price.

3.5x from a previous all time high, I don't know but it is if you look at it from a previous all time high. If you look at it from now, with price under $30,000 that is half of a current all time high. If in 2024 or 2025, Bitcoin rises to $120,000, it will be 3x from today price. I don't care about 3.x or 3.5x from $69k.

[Husires]

Bitcoin halving as an event has no direct effect on crypto price. If you follow the historical data, you will notice that the price did not rise in an instant after a day/hour or even month after halving, and therefore your friends who buy bitcoin to sell it after the halving will need to wait more time.

After 6-24 months of halving, the markets will begin to move to achieve some gains, and here is the perfect moment to enter the market as the profit potential is high, the loss is low and the wait is not long, perhaps after a year from now we will only see 10% profits, but inevitably after two years we will see Profits at a higher rate, so if you have a better investment opportunity, invest it and wait until after the Bitcoin halving for a quick return investment.

Deeper thinking: In each cycle, the price increase takes longer, meaning that the hypothesis of 6 months after halving for new ATH is considered less likely compared to 12 months or 24 months.