Locked the poll as I think we have somewhat captured the ruling 'sentiment of the month' of the people who goes in this thread, which at the first couple weeks of the month, I mostly really agree with...
Now I think sentiment will slowly change to bullish the more BTC claws its way higher and slowly fights its way thru 30k - 32k resistance. If it breaks out, I think we're looking at 36k - 37k resistance next.
I'm still sticking to my sideways vote
Now we are approaching the peak of previous resistance, I'm sceptical it'll break in the coming days or even next week. I also find it unlikely price will consolidate at this higher level until the end of the month at resistance, even if possible. I still think it's likely the month will end around $27K / $28K for a minor green candle, but a doji one generally signalling indecision/continuation ie "sideways" (down/up/down).
Don't get me wrong would be happy for price to clear the recent highs and reach $36K level, which would probably be the next immediate target, but after confirming the $30K area as one year long resistance, it might well take a few more weeks or months to finally get above it. If price action in March is anything to go by then the opposite is true, as this 6 month resistance was swiftly broken, but this is yet to be seen.
One thing I do find interesting is that so far this year's price action can be summarised as follows:
January to February: $15K to $25K (+$10K)
March to April: $20K to $31K (+$11K)
June to July?: $25K to $37K? (+$12K?)
Just a theory, but by next month price could certainly reach $35K to $37K if this years 6 month momentum simply continues...
As for 37k, I wanna see BTC break above 31k - 32k resistance then go down to test it as support. If it's solid and it holds then that's another good spot to go long.
I also suspect that breaking above $32K will shakeout the remaining bears who are still expecting lower lows, or at minimum a re-test of lower levels. With this in mind, these bears are quite likely to accept defeat and buy back, even if at a higher price for some. This is why I think a rational re-test of $32K to turn it into support will be unlikely, as the market is unlikely be rational if the last bearish level is crossed.
So what does that mean? You're thinking BTC goes straight to 37k or wherever the next resistance is..? It could happen but I think it's more likely that it's going to be like how it happened last time which was sell down to 25k before going up to attempt a break out 31k - 32k. So it will prolly go straight up to 37k like you said, lose some steam, go sideways for a bit then the retest to 31k - 32k.
I don't really see another correction to $25K, unless it's based on on re-testing much lower prices below that like $20K etc. Maybe $27K or $28K at most right now. Simply because we've already seen the correction from $30K levels to $25K, so there isn't much or a reason to repeat that imo. Quite likely if $32K is broken then it will be re-tested, but only after somewhere around $36K to $37K is tested imo.
The pump before this one, BTC went down to retest 20k before it went up to break out of 25k.
Sure that was a slightly deeper correction, around 20%, but not by much as $31K to $25K was a 19% correction. All it really shows is that the uptrend is stronger than it was, not much else. It's quite common that up-trends increase in strength until they eventually break, as this is more or less the recipe for a parabolic up-trend that we've yet to properly see so far.
Also note that after the correction to $20K price re-tested $25K before going another 20% higher within a few days, so this to me is the more likely outcome right now, unless we see a smaller correction to around $27K or $28K as I referenced in order to build up momentum. After all the $30K level should be slightly more difficult to break through than the $25K, due to higher trading volume.
Poll
