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Author Topic: China reopening was a flop, if we're heading to deflation, what about Bitcoin?  (Read 533 times)
stompix (OP)
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July 19, 2023, 10:16:53 PM
 #61

Bumping this with another I told ya:

China’s risk of deflation is ‘serious’ — one economist says it’s ‘time to act’
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/18/china-deflation-fears-add-to-growth-concerns-wall-street-downgrades.html

Now, there is some info here that might surprise, some, for example, the GDP growth was 6.3% from a year ago and missing  the expected 7.3%
, it might sound a lot but it comes over the results from 2022, when the growth was 0.4%, so it's more like a rebound from a period of nothing than actual growth. Much like every country exiting covid restriction went and had a +5+10 % growth.

And this is where it gets troubling:

Quote
This also marked a 0.8% growth from the first quarter, slower than the 2.2% quarter-on-quarter pace recorded in the first three months of the year.
“Nominal GDP growth turns out to be lower than real GDP growth in Q2, the first time since comparable data are available in Q4 2016,” said Zhang Zhiwei, Pinpoint Asset Management’s president and chief economist. “This indicates that risk of deflation is serious.”

And here it gets dangerous:
Quote
Chinese banks extended 1.81 trillion yuan ($258.23 billion) in new yuan loans in June, up 22% from May.
The bank keeps injecting money and there is no sign of inflation but serious dangerous of deflation and no wonder other authors have had the same thought as me and instantly thought: Japan!
China’s corporate woes are narrower than ‘Japanification’ fears

Inflation keeps going down in the EU and US, the UK has shown some really sharp drop, pretty soon they will be in the 2%-3% area and right now there is nothing stopping them either, China is already at the brink with 0.2%, there is nothing right now that can stimulate consumption, there is nothing to stimulate spending, and money printing won't solve the things either, besides nobody really wants to cut those rates anyhow.

This is going to be pretty interesting, it's going to be the first time in ages major economy would enter deflation since Japan did so everything is on the table.

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DrBeer
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July 20, 2023, 06:15:51 PM
 #62

I don't speak Russian so I searched for English news articles about the topic of crash tests of Chinese cars - and found about exactly the contrary Wink

Chinese cars used to be life-threatening, are they safe now?

Quote from: all-car-news
But the Chinese auto industry has clearly not stood still over the past two decades. This is evident from the results of recent Euro NCAP crash tests. Many Chinese newcomers achieve the maximum score of 5-stars and sometimes outperform European models in the same segment. Cars such as the NIO ET7, Lynk & Co 01, MG ZS EV, ORA Funky Cat, WEY Coffee 01 and BYD Atto 3 are extremely safe cars, according to the independent safety institute. Even models we have never heard of – such as the Chery OMODA5 and Maxus MIFA 9 – receive the highest attainable score of five stars from the crash test organization.

This is not the only source I consulted, for example there is also this one.  Also sources in German and Spanish are available with the same general tone, the Spanish one (from a highly renowned Argentine newspaper, Perfil) even claims that "Chinese cars are now the safest" Shocked. They're however all referring to the popular Euro NCAP crash tests. Maybe Russian crash tests are stricter? (I doubt it, but nothing is impossible.)


Let's just say it's an expected reference Smiley
1. YouTube has an option to enable subtitles, and enable auto-translation into your native language. And you can easily watch and "read" any clip Smiley
2. From the given example - Volvo and MG are not Chinese car industry, they are purchased business, with platforms and technologies developed by European companies.
3. Go to NCAP site, find testing of "Chinese" cars, check - whose brands and licensed models they are, and divide by 5 the number of certified cars. List the remaining Chinese, certified - check - how they are sold in EU/US/Japan. And here you will realize how the real picture of Chinese car industry looks like.

I've already told you - I have a longtime friend who moved to China a long time ago (closer to 2000), and has been working in their oil and gas sector for many years. And last year I saw an announcement of a gorgeous Chinese full electric SUV! I called him and asked him what's up with the Chinese car industry - can I order one, and WELL worth ordering. The answer was such - "...if you want to test - buy...". But to let you know - all less wealthy people drive European, American, Japanese cars.... They're expensive, but they're reliable and safe!"  On my question - "so in the new Chinese cars - and there are a lot of airbags, and safety systems, and seem to have improved the design and so on!" he said "yes, there is systemic advertising and support in the "masses", but .... search for information, for example, how airbags deploy in Chinese cars, Chinese-made, and you will understand everything...".

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