Bitcoin halving countdown

[DatBTCGuy]

I have always had a curiosity about how bitcoin halving services calculate the countdown. For example, you have NiceHash that says halving will happen on May 2 and websites like BitcoinHalving.info that have a quite different date.

Why this difference if halving happens after a fixed number of blocks?

Edit: added website name to the link for transparency

[Charles-Tim]

What is correct is the block height that the next halving will occur. As we are far from the halving day, the estimated dates on the sites may be different and all the sites may not estimate the exact date correctly until the halving date is getting closer.

[CODE200]

Why this difference if halving happens after a fixed number of blocks?

Probably because different websites use different criteria for block confirmation, as we all know, halving happens when we reach a certain block. Other reason I can think of is timezone consideration.

[EarnOnVictor]

My simple advice is that you should not put your mind on a specific date of halving but the effect of it on Bitcoin before and after it takes place. No one knows the exact day and time of halving, they only have their reasons to believe it will happen on a particular day.

I have seen many sites displaying different times in their countdown, and one of them is Binance that its halving day is not even the same as the two you earlier mentioned.

The bottom line is that all these guys are professionals, they can't just display their dates without a reason behind it, yet the only logical explanation for their different days is that No One Knows The Exact Day Of Halving.

My advice is that set your mind between April and May, if not June. You can also buy your Bitcoin a month or two before the halving time if that is your interest.

[Husna QA]

I have always had a curiosity about how bitcoin halving services calculate the countdown. For example, you have NiceHash that says halving will happen on May 2 and websites like this that have a quite different date.

Why this difference if halving happens after a fixed number of blocks?

Because the period between successfully mined Bitcoin blocks is not always the same; Therefore, it is natural that there will be differences in the predictions of the halving times displayed by the two websites.

Some of the other reasons you can see in the article that I quote below:

Because the number of bitcoins created each time a user discovers a new block - the block reward - is halved based on a fixed interval of blocks, and the time it takes on average to discover a block can vary based on mining power and the network difficulty, the exact time when the block reward is halved can vary as well. Consequently, the time the last Bitcoin will be created will also vary, and is subject to speculation based on assumptions.

[crypticj]

Can't wait for the halving. I hope we will finally see Bitcoin 100k after that.

But I guess it might take a pretty long time to get there after the halving because right now I don't see the economic situation getting better in the world. The US still needs to lower inflation and until then, it will be killing the economy with high interest rates

[mk4]

tl;dr it happens at a certain block height and there's no exact way of knowing when exactly(date, time) will we reach that specific block height. Only use those countdown dates as a sort of estimation on around when it's going to happen.

[Upgrade00]

You can draw your own estimate to when the next halving would be;
• You know the halving occurs every 210,000 blocks and we're expecting the 4th halving next year,
• Subtract the current block height from 840,000 (the block height of the next halving).
• That should be 47,065 blocks.
• From here you can multiply that by the time you think we would have between blocks. The average time is 10 minutes but this is not fixed.
• You can run your estimates using expected changes in hashrate over the next months.

When you arrive at a figure there's a huge chance yours would be different from the estimates of different websites.

[SamReomo]

I have always had a curiosity about how bitcoin halving services calculate the countdown. For example, you have NiceHash that says halving will happen on May 2 and websites like this that have a quite different date.

Why this difference if halving happens after a fixed number of blocks?

Bitcoin halving occurs when 210,000 blocks have been mined successfully and when it happens the rewards per block are reduced to half. There is no fixed date of it and all those sites have just predicted that when the 210,000 blocks are going to be mined. I recommend you to not rely on that information, but wait for the event to occur.

The Bitcoin halving is going to take place at block no 840,000, and currently 792,936 block no is mined so it's still far to reach the no 840,000 for halving to happen. The halving is going to take place and no one can stop it but it's not going to take place on an exact date and that's why I recommend you to wait for it rather than relying on the information available on those websites.

The reason behind the difference might be because of two things one is "Block Time Variance' and the other "Network Hash Rate." The average time to mine a block should be approximately 10 minutes but sometimes it varies by seconds and that causes mistiming in calculations. The time variance happens because of Network hash rate and it sometime increases and sometime decreases depending upon the mining activity of the miners on the network. When the hash rate fluctuations happens consistently, the block time will be affected by that. That's why it's not possible to predict the exact date or time of the halving event. However, it's a confirm thing that Bitcoin halving will take place anywhere between March to June of the year 2024, and still it can vary a little bit.

[Zaguru12]

Why this difference if halving happens after a fixed number of blocks?

Just like what Upgrade00 said the average time is estimated at 10 minutes but this varies as the time to time and this could alter the calculations of the halving. Although the difficulty reduces or increase depending on how fast 2016 blocks are mined but this little effect could also reduce or increase the average time for the halving. If the after a calculation the average time to mine almost every block equates to 9 minutes then the halving will come week(s) ahead of the initial date. So as long as there is no exact time to mine the 210,000 then the exact date can’t be known.

But I guess it might take a pretty long time to get there after the halving because right now I don't see the economic situation getting better in the world. The US still needs to lower inflation and until then, it will be killing the economy with high interest rates

It’s not even the economic situation but even after halving a new all time high is hardly reached. Although there is always a bull run after the halving but base on past halvings the ATH is either marched or surpassed when it is almost a year after the halving. Although economic conditions and government policy will have effect on it, but I am looking towards the probability of the close to 100k mark around the end of 2024 and the first or second quarter of 2025

[DatBTCGuy]

Thanks everyone, it's clearer now.

[UchihaSarada]

Most Reliable Halving Countdown?

Those countdown timers are only estimators and they can not give us accurate time when a next halving will happen. Block rewards halve after 210,000 blocks and will always be like this but time for that event is not known. Because we don't have exact block time for all blocks. Some blocks can be found after seconds, some blocks can be found after 10 minutes, longer than 10 minutes or shorter than 10 minutes.

Countdown timers only can give estimated time based on average block time that can be changed in future before the halving block. When block comes more nearly to a halving block, estimated time will become more accurate and will be inaccurate by a few minutes or seconds.

Now when halving block is about 1 more year, estimated time can be inaccurate by a few days.

What is a block halving event?

As part of Bitcoin's coin issuance, miners are rewarded a certain amount of bitcoins whenever a block is produced (approximately every 10 minutes). When Bitcoin first started, 50 Bitcoins per block were given as a reward to miners. After every 210,000 blocks are mined (approximately every 4 years), the block reward halves and will keep on halving until the block reward per block becomes 0 (approximately by year 2140). As of now, the block reward is 6.25 coins per block and will decrease to 3.125 coins per block post halving.

[Charles-Tim]

Thanks everyone, it's clearer now.

Once you have understood, you can lock this thread so that some people will not continue to repeat what others have posted already. To lock a thread, scroll down, at the lower left corner, you will see 'lock topic'.

[Dunamisx]

I have always had a curiosity about how bitcoin halving services calculate the countdown. For example, you have NiceHash that says halving will happen on May 2 and websites like BitcoinHalving.info that have a quite different date.

Why this difference if halving happens after a fixed number of blocks?

There will always be a different date to Halving until we are very close to the period this is expected to take place, on a normal calculations Halving occurs every four years intervals which means the next one coming is targeted on the year 2024 which is next year from the previous one that occurs the year 2020, some have predicted April while some March 2024, but either of the dates or months we will get it happened next year.

[DatBTCGuy]

Thanks everyone, it's clearer now.

Once you have understood, you can lock this thread so that some people will not continue to repeat what others have posted already. To lock a thread, scroll down, at the lower left corner, you will see 'lock topic'.

I'm doing it, thanks for the tip.