If my annualized return is above 50%, am I doing well?

[findnjm]

I have never discussed this on the global forum. so I don't know how people will understand it. I'm just writing to see what people think.

I have been arbitraging in Korea for 3 years now. There is a special premium on the Korean exchange. It usually moves from -3 to 10% over the global price. If you enter this formula in TradingView, you can see the price premium on the Korean exchange.

'upbit:btckrw/(balance:btcusd.p*fx_idc:usdkrw)*100-100'


The premiums of some altcoins move even more dramatically. I profit from this difference, usually by moving money between the Korean exchanges and Binance when the market timing is in my favor. I then hedge the perpetual market to avoid the risk of price fluctuations. There are more complex techniques. In South Korea, I'm pretty sure I'm in the top 1% of people who utilize this trading technique.


In 2021, I had a 334% return (everyone made a lot of money back then) and 53% return in 2022. This year, I'm already up 59%. So far, I've made a net profit of about $429,000 over three years from this trade.


I'm sure there are plenty of people out there with better returns than that, but the strength of my trading method is not in the returns, but in the stability. I'm free from the risk of price fluctuations. If the price of Bitcoin drops to $1k, I'll still make money. As liquidity and volatility increase, so does the premium differential, which opens up more opportunities. SBF also left Korea around 2018 to hunt for price premiums. (It is now difficult for foreigners to operate on the Korean exchange). The only risk in this trade is that the centralized exchange goes under.

Anyway, what I'm wondering is if these advantages are also attractive to non-Korean global investors. The returns are not bad, but I feel passive and foolish doing this alone in my room.  I've been doing this by myself for three years, and now I want to expand, and I'm always thinking that there are more opportunities if we collaborate globally. In a world where scammers are setting up sites and scamming investors, why can't I create an arbitrage system that makes real trades and generates consistent profits?

Do you guys think I have a good chance? Or is this just an uninteresting story? I've been thinking about this a lot myself, so I'd like to see what the global forum thinks.

Thanks for reading this long post.

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[Stalker22]

In a world where scammers are setting up sites and scamming investors, why can't I create an arbitrage system that makes real trades and generates consistent profits?

I believe this particular sentence holds utmost significance within your entire presentation. Interestingly, in the first segment, you have already provided an answer to the second part of your question.

Do you guys think I have a good chance? Or is this just an uninteresting story?

Keep doing what you are doing, and you will have a great chance of achieving success for yourself. Do not ask other people for money unless you can offer them some kind of assurance that you will be able to pay it back.

[noorman0]

-snip-
The returns are not bad, but I feel passive and foolish doing this alone in my room.


I've been doing this by myself for three years, and now I want to expand, and I'm always thinking that there are more opportunities if we collaborate globally.

That's a good initiative, so do you plan on sharing the technical details with others?

Speaking of today's trading volume with almost no significant price difference between all global exchanges (imo), 50% return is actually a bit strange using arbitrage techniques, I think you will get some resistance when offering collaboration even if you try to get the attention of low class traders.

-snip-
Or is this just an uninteresting story?

Personal opinion: too good to be true.

[adaseb]

I didn’t think it was possible to arb the kimchi premium due to the capital controls by the country.

So you can sell your Bitcoin at a premium but how will you buy more Bitcoin? You can’t buy it on the same exchange because price is higher. You need to use the other exchanges but it’s difficult getting money out of the country. Hence why there is this premium. So I am surprised this has worked for you while it doesn’t work for others.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

The returns are not bad, but I feel passive and foolish doing this alone in my room.
I've been doing this by myself for three years, and now I want to expand, and I'm always thinking that there are more opportunities if we collaborate globally.
In a world where scammers are setting up sites and scamming investors, why can't I create an arbitrage system that makes real trades and generates consistent profits?
Do you guys think I have a good chance? Or is this just an uninteresting story?
I've been thinking about this a lot myself, so I'd like to see what the global forum thinks.

Why you spam "enter" each new line? it just makes the post look bad and harder to read.

According to your trading.

1- build enough liquidity on both exchanges so that you dont have to move founds from exchange to exchange each time you make a trade
2- automatic your trading technice by simple arbirage bot. Arbitrage bots are super easy to make, you need 1-3 days in python even if you have zero coding skill. There are also examples of arbitrage bots on github that you can use for your purpose after some changes.

[Dunamisx]

In a world where scammers are setting up sites and scamming investors, why can't I create an arbitrage system that makes real trades and generates consistent profits?

What makes you feels that others will also trust your own development just as you have doubts on other's, the point is that despite all this, there's no certainty elsewhere that gives you the go ahead of having a complete positive outcome at the cause of doing this, you may only got improve through it and you have your right to choose the possible options on artbitrage system you want, if you trust well you can deliver such then why not, through the quality of what you've made others will be attracted with time to use it as well for their own trading experience.

Do you guys think I have a good chance? Or is this just an uninteresting story?

There's no guarantee in everything we all do, we take our time to invest, invent and trade using many options and alternatives that we feels could increase our chances of arriving at the desired destination for making profits, your chances are good inasmuch the efforts given were adequate enough.

[stompix]

I didn’t think it was possible to arb the kimchi premium due to the capital controls by the country.

Capital controls aren't bans!
You just need to follow the rules, declare everything, and pay your fees and taxes and nobody will bother you.
As long as you have a legit company, and an SK bank account and you can provide them with everything they need, in most cases the proof of income for the amounts you're transferring then you're all set.

So you can sell your Bitcoin at a premium but how will you buy more Bitcoin? You can’t buy it on the same exchange because price is higher. You need to use the other exchanges but it’s difficult getting money out of the country.

It's pretty simple!
You look for the opportunity to arrive, at that point you buy $50 BTC on Coinbase, you send them to Bitthumb, you sell at a 5% premium, you withdraw your money to the SK bank, then to your US bank, and then you try again.
There is actually not a big difference between this and taking advantage of any other high commodity prices, traders do this with full tankers of LNG or oil when the price are better in Europe than in Asia, the same happened with the onions in Philipines.

There are some problems:
- you need a huge capital to make it worthwhile, you can't play with one BTC as the fees will eat all your profit.
- the money flow from inside Korea takes time, a lot of time, so don't think you can do this daily, it's not SEPA.
- sometimes the kImchi premium turns to a discount, you don't want to be caught in one so you might be forced to wait, sometimes even for weeks

[Faisal2202]

There is a special premium on the Korean exchange.

I then hedge the perpetual market to avoid the risk of price fluctuations.

Thanks for reading this long post.

Dear findnjm, the post will not be that long if you would follow some simple writing ethics. Well, ignoring that, and coming to your statements, i am so happy for you to make so much profit out of the crypto industry but i never thought one can benefit that much by just doing arbitrage trading, I would love to know why you think the prices of tokens are higher (premium) in Korea in comparison to other countries?

I also love to know how you hedge against your profits so that you could avoid losing, Which technique do you use? And when do you get to know that the market is in your favor and now you can do arbitrage trading? And also tell me why would i trust your all statements blindly, you might be telling lies to get more paying customers so that you could sell them your strategy.

Why did you not share some proof of it? I mean no disrespect but your statements do need proof to convince the global audience here, They do know how newbies came on a daily basis and make posts on to they can not hold. Just like this one.

Im trader over 12 years of experince.
I like to challenge myself iwill use mainly moving average indicator.
My goal is to start with 7$ and in 15 days i'll turn this into 229376$
I'll post here results when i have done this my PNL from binance.

I hope you would not end up like this one.

[stompix]

I would love to know why you think the prices of tokens are higher (premium) in Korea in comparison to other countries?
Why did you not share some proof of it?

It takes just 3 seconds including tapping/clicking:

https://coinmarketcap.com/exchanges/bithumb/

Bitcoin
BTC/KRW
$27,143.03

https://coinmarketcap.com/exchanges/coinbase-exchange/

Bitcoin
BTC/USD
$26,551.84

https://learn.bybit.com/trading/what-is-kimchi-premium/

When doubting one's story, shouldn't you research on your own, what help would be his explanations if you doubt him from the start?

[Faisal2202]

I would love to know why you think the prices of tokens are higher (premium) in Korea in comparison to other countries?
Why did you not share some proof of it?

It takes just 3 seconds including tapping/clicking:

When doubting one's story, shouldn't you research on your own, what help would be his explanations if you doubt him from the start?

Well, that's the difference between rank and experience, you did it in 3 seconds and if i would do it, it could take me some time to figure it out. Well i did not give a thought on checking the price difference because i trust the op on this one, i was skeptical on his profit ratio and why there is a big difference between these prices i thought arbitrage trading has small price differences but your aforementioned one has big difference. Why the korean did not prefer to buy it from Binance then (at lower rate) why would they buy it from there own local exchange (at higher rates) that what i was being asking in the first line and in the second question, i asked the op to share some proof so that people like me and other would quickly go through the price differences and it will definitely build some trust too.

Overall, i am satisfied now with the knowledge of price in fact i was thinking to try the provided code tonight as i was busy too. So thank you for easiness.

[wxa7115]

In a world where scammers are setting up sites and scamming investors, why can't I create an arbitrage system that makes real trades and generates consistent profits?


Do you guys think I have a good chance? Or is this just an uninteresting story?


I've been thinking about this a lot myself, so I'd like to see what the global forum thinks.




Thanks for reading this long post.

Those returns are huge, if you can really make this amount of money in a stable way then you will have a line of investors trying to give you their money so you can invest on their behalf.

However if you want to become a money manager, which seems to be your aspiration based on your post, then you need more than a winning strategy, you need to convince your potential customers that you will not run away with their money, something insanely difficult in a market which is flooded with scammers.

[rat03gopoh]

Those returns are huge, if you can really make this amount of money in a stable way then you will have a line of investors trying to give you their money so you can invest on their behalf.

Yeah, that is if you find a line of noob investors who think these benefits make sense at first glance, or the most common investor opinion is getting involved in shitcoin schemes.
Tbh, it's enough to make my mind vibrate to hear 6 digit profits written in a simple way, but does that make investors with the same class interested? I don't think so, they actually have independent ways to generate similar profits.

[bettercrypto]

First of all, I just advise you not to repeat this format of your posting that there is a big space gap between each sentence you type here in the explanations. Now, based on your story, I see that you have trading skills according to your experience there in Korea, right?

and accumulated an income of around 429k$ in 3 years. It means you are a rich person, that amount you got from trading is no joke. If you were able to make money on the Korean exchange, I think you can also do it on the crypto exchange, as long as you remember that the volatility here on Bitcoin or cryptocurrency is more aggressive than on the Korean exchange. And you should be prepared for the risk level that you can face here.

[findnjm]

  Wow, that's a lot of different opinions, and I really appreciate your comments. As you may have noticed, I'm speaking through a translator, so it's not going to be easy to respond to each and every one of them, but I'm going to say a little bit more because there are a lot of people who are curious about this trading strategy.

i don't actually send any crypto, and this is a very important point. There's a common misconception that you have to transfer when you arbitrage. You don't have to. (I say transfer in the body of the post because I didn't really want to say this, but I changed my mind because you guys are curious.) When I do this trade, I go short on Binance and buy spot on upbit, and then I just wait for the spread between the two to widen. In other words, I don't go in after the spread widens. I do the buy before the spread widens.

But you can't just pick up any crypto and wait for the spread to widen, right? So I pick a crypto that's prone to price distortion. This usually happens with altcoins.  For example, the crypto I'm currently holding is 'flow'. In my experience, there is a good chance that this trade will give me at least a 1% return this week (but there are no guarantees in the world).


I made a chart of FLOW's spread for you guys.

https://kr.tradingview.com/chart/p60QXU2S

Or, if you want to see more detailed movement, try plugging this formula directly into TradingView.

(upbit:flowkrw-binance:flowusdt.p*fx_idc:usdkrw)/(binance:flowusdt.p*fx_idc:usdkrw)*100



I'm holding when the spread on 'FLOW' is 2.5%, and you can see if it goes higher than that in the future. I'll probably exit the position between 3.5% and 6%, depending on the volatility at that time. There are many factors that contribute to this distortion. It could be that the crypto upgrade cut off deposits and withdrawals, it could be that the price has gone up a lot and people are going crazy, or it could be that the price has dropped so much that it's not keeping up with the price overseas. I'm trying to figure this out and do some proper arbitrage.


In January, February, and March, I had fun with aptos.
https://kr.tradingview.com/chart/r0EdVNMl/


KAVA is a classic example of a crypto pranked by Korean whales. No matter what the price is overseas, it sometimes happens that it only makes a price in Korea.
https://kr.tradingview.com/chart/f81jB9R7/


Two weeks ago, METAL was doing this.
https://kr.tradingview.com/chart/wqrts0jF/


By the way, only Koreans can do this on upbit. Upbit doesn't accept foreigners, but since Korea doesn't have a perfect crypto policy, it's possible for Koreans to use Binance Global, so I can hunt for these arbitrage opportunities. Of course, I don't think this arbitrage will last forever. One day, when the crypto market stabilizes in terms of policy, the loophole will be closed. But before that happens, I've been thinking about whether there's something to grow. I was very curious to see how it was viewed by global traders. I guess the trust issue is the biggest barrier for me to scale it into a business. Thanks for your thoughts.


oh. I have one more question: In my country, it is illegal for an individual who is not registered as an investment company to manage other people's money. I assume it is the same in your country? It seems difficult to create a legal organization and do business with crypto.

Have a good day everyone.


Additions to comments1) It's hard for me to provide evidence of profits. As anyone who has done arbitrage trading based on the distortion of spot prices knows, the short side records a deficit, so this side has a huge deficit, and upbit doesn't have a function to provide cumulative profit data. I can show you how much money I withdrew from upbit to my bank, but I don't need to do that in this post. It's in Korean. haha

Additions to comments2) It is difficult to transfer money from a bank in South Korea to a bank in the U.S. That method is a premium hunting method used in the past. So many people used this method in the past that Korean banks, along with the government, are now strictly controlling it. This control seems to be isolating Korean exchanges and causing price distortions.I only realize profits through the spread between Binance and Upbit and increase the KRW on the exchange. It's similar to how you guys increase your USDT.

[Flexystar]

Hey OP, too many spaces in your post, I am not sure if you are posting from mobile view or desktop but that looks too unformatted.

Well, coming back to the returns form your methods, they are just fabulous. You should consider it as win-win situation because we are already in the bear trend of the market. Not just the crypto but all the stocks and share markets have fallen badly since pandemic and war, natural calamities etc, you name it. I mean I have seen myself happy with the 15-20% annualized returns so there is no doubt that you have just outperformed your stay in the crypto trading.

Moreover, what amuses me is, all of this is from the altcoins trading and that's super risky asset so far in the trading. Its good that your portfolio was chosen pretty right. I am not sure if your methods are unique or orthodox, but you should stick to them since they are working for you.

[mirakal]

You are doing well as long as you make yourself profitable. That would already indicate that you are doing well. Not everyone makes money in the crypto world, so you are lucky to earn consistently on a yearly basis. If you are not yet satisfied with your profit, then you might as well increase your capital. Even if you only make a 50% return yearly, that would already result in a satisfactory profit.

[leonair]

If the annual return is more than 50% then it is definitely a good return. because at present 15% of one's profit itself is not able to change one's financial condition because the value of money is constantly depreciating. so to change the financial situation in keeping with the devaluation of money must earn more profit otherwise it will not be possible. However, an annual profit of more than 50% is considered a good return in my opinion. So it can be a good potential income for you

[jeraldskie11]

As long as your capital is large, a 50% annual return is acceptable to me. If you only have a tiny amount of money, it's not worth it. Let's assume you put $100 in and make $50 profit in a year; you're profitable, but it's never enough because it took several months to earn that profit, which is why it depends on your capital. However, we have different thoughts and perspectives on this, because for some, $100 is a large sum, while for others, it is a small amount of money.

[Cryptomultiplier]

I would have to ask how you even managed to secure a sure 50% return, following recent expenditures and price hike. If you are still single and can hold such, you should be able to get it up to at least 60%, by cutting down on serious cost investments that have better alternatives.

If you are married I would have to applaud your religious efforts in maintaining a good financial portfolio and hope you share with us someday your wisdom on how you made it happen.

[jrrsparkles]

As long as your capital is large, a 50% annual return is acceptable to me. If you only have a tiny amount of money, it's not worth it. Let's assume you put $100 in and make $50 profit in a year; you're profitable, but it's never enough because it took several months to earn that profit, which is why it depends on your capital. However, we have different thoughts and perspectives on this, because for some, $100 is a large sum, while for others, it is a small amount of money.

Well, converting 100 dollar into 150 dollar is harder than converting 100K into 150k in crypto trading so small the capital the harder to reach better results cause fee will eat the profits.

Overall 59% is great achievement which is not possible for everyone and you did it consistently for 3 years but it's not going to last Lang forever so make as much as you can when there is an opportunity for arbitrage in Korean exchange.