Bitcoin breaking out of 2 month downtrend

[dragonvslinux]

As the title suggests, Bitcoin appears to breaking out of it's two month long downtrend after reaching the highs of $31K on April 14th, that followed with lower lows and lower highs.



As can be seen by the chart above, today price is breaking the resistance trend-line as well as moving back above the 50 Day MA that price has remained below for the past 5 weeks.

Do you think this break-out will continue to the upside in order to re-test the highs around $31K, or will it fail and price will fall lower?

As of typing price hasn't made a higher high above last month high of $28,450, but is getting close.

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[flyingcarpet]

Do you think this break-out will continue to the upside in order to re-test the highs around $31K, or will it fail and price will fall lower?

I think it will test $31,000. Even if it's going to fall, it won't fall until I do this test. This is how I feel as the price broke the resistance trendline. Especially the news and lawsuits that have emerged in recent weeks have not done any harm to bitcoin. This news was not about bitcoin anyway. It took a while to test the 31k because of this news. This was the only negative impact of these news on Bitcoin.

All in all, if I have to wrap up my post, my guess will test $31,000.

[dragonvslinux]

Do you think this break-out will continue to the upside in order to re-test the highs around $31K, or will it fail and price will fall lower?

I think it will test $31,000. Even if it's going to fall, it won't fall until I do this test. This is how I feel as the price broke the resistance trendline. Especially the news and lawsuits that have emerged in recent weeks have not done any harm to bitcoin. This news was not about bitcoin anyway. It took a while to test the 31k because of this news. This was the only negative impact of these news on Bitcoin.

It's a good point that the bearish news of SEC lawsuits overall had virtually no bearish effect on Bitcoin. Obviously fundamentally it shouldn't, as Bitcoin isn't referenced, but given how the market functions a lot on sentiment I'd assume that if the market was truly bearish then this would have had a negative effect on the overall market. Instead Bitcoin went sideways and has begun to recover since these announcements.

I'm not even convinced the recent ETF news is what has instigated this rally either, it seems to have simply negated the negativity of the SEC lawsuits, therefore leaving Bitcoin with a relatively neutral sentiment. With that neutrality and after a 2 month downtrend, it seems quite logical Bitcoin would continue to the upside, given it's effectively been in a broader uptrend since the start of the year now.

That's my take on the sentiment side of the market, technical analysis aside.

[cabron]

Once it surpasses $32k, there could be another decline in a few days and then pump again to $35k.  It's climbing so fast actually which is worrisome but it looks like it is going to break 31k in a few days. Amazing that the herd is running already 6 months before this year end. They are not waiting for the halving.

Since big institutions are getting ready for this rally as well. Blackrock, Fidelity and its ETF approval will be a good reason to breathe and hold!

[dragonvslinux]

Once it surpasses $32k, there could be another decline in a few days and then pump again to $35k.  It's climbing so fast actually which is worrisome but it looks like it is going to break 31k in a few days.

Price hasn't been climbing that fast either short or long-term based on Bitcoin's usual price action. For example today is around +4% and the week is +6%. It's slightly above average volatility, but otherwise probably just seems like it's moving fast because price has been moving so slowly for the past 2 months. Based on the Daily RSI for example, price is only just turning bullish after being neutral for almost two months, so far from overbought or anything like that. In fact, there is a lot of room to the upside if some of the shorter-term metrics cool-off in the meantime, especially given the break-out is barely even confirmed yet.

We'll now when price is moving quickly because the Daily rise will be more than +5%, likely around +10% with another weekly candle around +20%. This is the usual outcome of breakouts after months of consolidation.

[adaseb]

I think its good for bitcoin to consolidate for weeks and then break-out upwards, kind of like we have been doing since November of last year. What we don't want to see is these massive daily and weekly candles where we gain +20% week after week.

Generally with bitcoin when that happens it means we are going to near a top and then start another sideways market and bear market. We need to see bitcoin up go slowly and not with violent upward moves, that usually indicates that the top is near.

[imamusma]

As the title suggests, Bitcoin appears to breaking out of it's two month long downtrend after reaching the highs of $13K on April 14th, that followed with lower lows and lower highs.

Don't rush, it should be $31k right?

Do you think this break-out will continue to the upside in order to re-test the highs around $31K, or will it fail and price will fall lower?

As of typing price hasn't made a higher high above last month high of $28,450, but is getting close.

I'm tend to think this trend will retest the $31k resistance over the last 10 days of June. I'm not sure $31k will failed to break yet, but some people might try to take profit in that area which will probably make it difficult for price to hold above $30k. Nice to see the percentage increase today, but as I write the price has fallen below $28k again.

[dragonvslinux]

As the title suggests, Bitcoin appears to breaking out of it's two month long downtrend after reaching the highs of $13K on April 14th, that followed with lower lows and lower highs.

Don't rush, it should be $31k right?

Yes thanks. I always double check my topics but had completely missed that error.

Do you think this break-out will continue to the upside in order to re-test the highs around $31K, or will it fail and price will fall lower?

As of typing price hasn't made a higher high above last month high of $28,450, but is getting close.

I'm tend to think this trend will retest the $31k resistance over the last 10 days of June. I'm not sure $31k will failed to break yet, but some people might try to take profit in that area which will probably make it difficult for price to hold above $30k. Nice to see the percentage increase today, but as I write the price has fallen below $28k again.

I get the impression that if price will reach $31K within the next 10 days, then the month will still close around $27K or $28K for one of those bullish but indecisive candles, similar to February. That said, if the month did close >$30K that would be very bullish imo. A nice long bullish wick to the downside followed by highest monthly close in over a year...

Already the bullish wick to the downside showing buying pressure below $27K is good enough for me though if it closes in the green, better than testing the highs and returning to the opening price imo.

[imamusma]

I'm tend to think this trend will retest the $31k resistance over the last 10 days of June. I'm not sure $31k will failed to break yet, but some people might try to take profit in that area which will probably make it difficult for price to hold above $30k. Nice to see the percentage increase today, but as I write the price has fallen below $28k again.

I get the impression that if price will reach $31K within the next 10 days, then the month will still close around $27K or $28K for one of those bullish but indecisive candles, similar to February. That said, if the month did close >$30K that would be very bullish imo. A nice long bullish wick to the downside followed by highest monthly close in over a year...

Already the bullish wick to the downside showing buying pressure below $27K is good enough for me though if it closes in the green, better than testing the highs and returning to the opening price imo.

Maybe it's time to be optimistic about something different than before when the optimism of traders and investors has increased due to some underlying reasons lately. I don't even expect $31k to test, but hope we can see price hold and the month close in that area.

But despite all that, panicked traders and holders eager to take quick profits will certainly have an impact on how the month closes out. But I believe the best closing price to expect later this month is $28k - $29k.

[Franctoshi]

Sometime last week when BTC was at 26k, From my analysis, I called out that BTC should be getting a bounce at $24.5k, and if BTC failed to do so that $15k would be the next target, and exactly Bitcoin bounced from the zone, therefore having Bitcoin met my price
expectations and having got a bounce from that support, I strongly believe that Bitcoin is heading up from here to create new highs.

[Agbe]

If bitcoin rise again it is not from this month again but it might be feom next month. This month bitcoin price will be in between $26k/27k . And from next month it might have some indications to climb the ladder. And not really from next month the ladder will be climbed but towards the ending of the year that will be when the signal of bull will manifest for everyone to see. I have sent different predictions here but I don't think the $31k will come to pass in the next months but it will go up to sustain the market.

[dragonvslinux]

I'm tend to think this trend will retest the $31k resistance over the last 10 days of June. I'm not sure $31k will failed to break yet, but some people might try to take profit in that area which will probably make it difficult for price to hold above $30k. Nice to see the percentage increase today, but as I write the price has fallen below $28k again.

I get the impression that if price will reach $31K within the next 10 days, then the month will still close around $27K or $28K for one of those bullish but indecisive candles, similar to February. That said, if the month did close >$30K that would be very bullish imo. A nice long bullish wick to the downside followed by highest monthly close in over a year...

Already the bullish wick to the downside showing buying pressure below $27K is good enough for me though if it closes in the green, better than testing the highs and returning to the opening price imo.

Maybe it's time to be optimistic about something different than before when the optimism of traders and investors has increased due to some underlying reasons lately. I don't even expect $31k to test, but hope we can see price hold and the month close in that area.

Being optimistic right now makes sense, but personally I prefer not to be too optimistic. Ie not hoping for re-testing $30K or $31K within the next 10 days, as a fast move from $25k to $30K would likely create a pull-back towards $27K by the end of the month, creating an indecisive monthly candle. Whereas if prices where to hold steady for the next 10 days then it would be a much more bullish monthly candle.

But despite all that, panicked traders and holders eager to take quick profits will certainly have an impact on how the month closes out. But I believe the best closing price to expect later this month is $28k - $29k.

Personally I get the impression that most who wanted to take profits, or get out of positions, did so previously around $30K resistance level. But hey, that's just opinion anyway.

[ShowOff]

Do you think this break-out will continue to the upside in order to re-test the highs around $31K, or will it fail and price will fall lower?

I dunno, there's a lot of doubt about that. Anyway we've had a lot of positives lately supporting more push to test the resistance you mentioned, but I believe the possibility of failure also cannot be discounted. If that resistance is not broken then a correction could ensue, but not any lower below $27k.

Really, I should be pretty happy with the little pump today, my spirits are up again. Keep holding.

[Slow death]

in my opinion this price recovery has a reason, and the reason is probably related to this:

BlackRock applies for spot Bitcoin ETF — a US first if approved


We are back to the old story in which the SEC keeps postponing, postponing, postponing, postponing and in the end rejects it. but as this is a company with a lot of money and a few days ago I saw a lot of comments on the youtube channels in which people showed a lot of optimism with this news and that they would buy a lot because in case of approval the price will go up a lot and next year in April we have the Bitcoin halving so buy now is a good opportunity that a lot of people are seeing but people in a few weeks will realize that approval is something that will take a long time

many people still do not know the past in which the SEC was postponing and rejecting these bitcoin ETFs, that's why these new people are deluding themselves and buying a lot, because they think that everything will be approved very quickly, anyway I would only see it with optimism if the price reaches 32000$ and stays above this price for a long time, while it is below 32000$ there will still be a great chance that the price will drop a lot and with the global financial crisis, being optimistic at that time is not something very realistic and technical analysis is not it has worked very well in this cryptocurrency market in my opinion

[_BlackStar]

I'd say it's possible - but I would slightly imagine that $30k will be the closing price this June.
It would be sad if traders had to panic sell their bitcoins right after the price showed a recovery - but that's up to them especially if they are making short term profits.

The $31k resistance remains strong should bitcoin not break $30k in June. But wait - we still have more than a week left before the month-end close. I'll wait until I reach $30k, and I think the fundamentals are still pretty good.

[hatshepsut93]

I was mildly surprised when I checked the price today and say it jump by almost $2k. Of course in Bitcoin it's a normal occurrence, but this recovery feels quite quick, I suspected that the $26k range will last for a lot longer. But I wouldn't be surprised by more gains, because everyone expects a bull run in next year after the halvening, so it would be logical to start accumulating now, which could be causing these price spikes when some big buyers do it. But then the price is knocked down a bit by short-term speculators who take their short-term profits.

[arwin100]

Do you think this break-out will continue to the upside in order to re-test the highs around $31K, or will it fail and price will fall lower?

I dunno, there's a lot of doubt about that. Anyway we've had a lot of positives lately supporting more push to test the resistance you mentioned, but I believe the possibility of failure also cannot be discounted. If that resistance is not broken then a correction could ensue, but not any lower below $27k.

Really, I should be pretty happy with the little pump today, my spirits are up again. Keep holding.

The tension made by Binance fud  has been erase out so maybe there are more people speculating about a recovery after those dump happen when controversy against US Sec spread out. But now since we see the price surprisingly up  maybe we can see a retest for bitcoin to even reach at $30k so let see if we can see more than this and reach that $31k since provably it could start a hype which bring good atmosphere on crypto space.

[sheenshane]

Yes, of course, that's possible, I think there's nothing wrong if you always have a positive perspective on the price to make you more motivated in holding your Bitcoin and I voted Yes.

The resistance I think it's pretty normal since after the correction of the price it's expected that there's a spike in the price.

Another reason could be because of BlackRock who filed for a bitcoin exchange-traded fund with the SEC, who else knows about this news recently?

[yhiaali3]

The lowest point Bitcoin reached with pressure was 24,700$, but it bounced quickly from this point and broke through 26,000$, then 27000$, and now Bitcoin is at 28700$, Bitcoin easily surpassed all these numbers in a short time.

The scenario now depends on the market's reaction during the upcoming period, where positivity is confirmed or we see some corrections. Although I see the positivity clearly, therefore we can talk about anticipating new heights to 31,000$ in a short period.

[Minor Miner]

Just yesterday everyone was pessimistic about the market and no one thought bitcoin would rise again this June. But it was overnight when bitcoin price went up over $2k and at one point hit $29k, and we're aiming higher. It is true that bitcoin always brings us surprises and as always, bitcoin is never predictable. I'm not good at technical analysis and I don't fully believe in it either. But I predict bitcoin can break through $31k and hit higher targets before correcting again.