Has everyone become too pesimistic about the economy?

[icalical]

The countries around the world are in debt like never before, the banks had created endless money at very low rates, the small banks will be swallowed up by the big ones and of course the losses will be for us citizens.

In many countries, young people can no longer buy their apartment, sometimes cannot rent either, some even have to stop their studies because of rental prices. Young Americans start their working lives over-indebted because of their studies, is that all normal ?

The situation seems much worse than during the subprime crisis in any case. People who leave their money in the bank lose it to inflation and some governments are likely to be tempted by bank account confiscations.

The economic situation is terrible and was before COVID because this system of debts is at the end of its rope, the shutdown of world economies has only made things worse, sometimes leaving people dependent on tourism with nothing.

But human beings are creative and most will find solutions regardless, maybe a minority, but there will be.

This is the reality, true that the recession is not going to happened to most of countries, because the production rate is not going down people still produce goods and selling it, people still making money, but the inflation is through the roof. If each government not quickly making good fiscal policy that has significant effect, then the people should be ready for the worse stage.

[Uruhara]

For the problems of institutional investors, I think they will definitely come back, maybe even they are slowly coming back. Many large companies today have approached crypto. Even with blackrock's current approach proposing a spot Bitcoin ETF is a sign that big things are coming.

There are more organisations that will become investors and many institutional investors are waiting for the right time to invest more. But we should not only consider institutional investors because there are retail investors too that their investment can increase bitcoin price.

Of course everything has to be considered. Both small investors and large investors all have their respective important roles in the rate of movement in bitcoin. Perhaps the movements of large investors do have a very large effect on market sentiment. But one thing for sure is that small investors tend to prefer to follow every movement of big investors. But if we are small investors, it would be better if we know how to move before the big investors move. because waiting for big investors to move first makes the risk bigger for those of us who enter late. But I am personally optimistic that bitcoin awareness has become the majority in all countries. So the current market cap can still be said to be small.

[Synchronice]

Yeah me! 
Everyone was going doomsday with everything going down, half of the economy shutting down, twice the total number of companies in a country going bankrupt, the euro going to parity with the cent, Europe freezing to death or driving donkeys whatever cam first, nuclear warheads for everyone at Oprah, and when you look at live cams from the beaches you will see that outside the bunker life goes on! Normal life and the economy have found a way after two world wars, numerous economic crises, and far deadlier diseases. Rember how we were doomed in 2009? It's just a repetition!

I couldn't really feel that there was a war in a city where I live. People just work and live a normal life. News websites are sowing fear and anger and when people follow this panic, things are getting worse. But people love panic, they know it, panic is profitable for big companies. For example, because of panic, tons of oil and toilet paper was sold in a day.
It's also very funny, how 90% of people here believed that Germany was going to freeze to death and I was just amazed when I was moving in a country, there was heat in every store, in every building, in every GYM, there was no problem with hot water, etc.

[franky1]

I'm a pleb

we know

and I too have, many times, become pesimistic about the economy in general and in what's about to come.

heres some tips
when they say recession.. hear "buy the dips"

when they say real estate market will burst/crash/collapse.. hear to the words 'cheap, discounted houses'
when they say cost of living increase.. hear the words 'payrise, invest, economise'

whenever i see news reporting that stocks and shares crash. i hear buy the dip

wall street wants the lower class to fear crashes, basically they want the plebs to sell at a loss so they can buy cheap. but these crashes are when you should be buying

when media shout "crash" rather then "discount" this is them trying to cause a 'dump n pump' trying to get the price to go as low as possible to test value bottoms. while they buy at that base value whilst plebs are selling at losses

when you see restaurants go through "greedflation" where they have put their prices for meals up buy50% instead of 10%. thats an opportunity for other smaller restaurants to gain customers by offering meals at less than 50% more. thus being cheaper thus winning customers

there are many opportunities to provide products and services

take clothing retailers. that raise their prices. many other people set up etsy/ebay accounts to do dropshipping of clothing thats cheaper.

when you see people that are seeing a supply problem. dont see it as a problem see it as a demand for something. fill that demand

back when covid started the 'toilet roll rush' some people had stock piles of toilet roll and resold them when it was not available in retail stores

[Alpha Marine]

I never been become pessimistic about the economy since  I never depend on the government for my living.  I am a believer that whatever is happening in the surrounding, it is our own selves that can help our situation.  So if I felt pessimistic then it will be over for me.  To face the hard life ahead one must be motivated and optimistic about the future.  That will give us strength to go forward and at the same time put a smile in our lips.

No matter what you do, no matter where you make your money comes from, and no matter how rich you are, the things happening in an economy affects you. You don't have to be dependent on the government before you get affected.
Being optimistic about your future is different from being optimistic about the economy. The economy is bad doesn't mean you won't flourish. People are still leveling up despite the failing economy.

Inflation affects everybody, and the devaluation of currency affects everybody. You can't escape it. If housing fees and electricity bills keep increasing you don't have to depend on the government for it to affect you.

[Tony116]

I never been become pessimistic about the economy since  I never depend on the government for my living.  I am a believer that whatever is happening in the surrounding, it is our own selves that can help our situation.  So if I felt pessimistic then it will be over for me.  To face the hard life ahead one must be motivated and optimistic about the future.  That will give us strength to go forward and at the same time put a smile in our lips.

No matter what you do, no matter where you make your money comes from, and no matter how rich you are, the things happening in an economy affects you. You don't have to be dependent on the government before you get affected.
Being optimistic about your future is different from being optimistic about the economy. The economy is bad doesn't mean you won't flourish. People are still leveling up despite the failing economy.

Inflation affects everybody, and the devaluation of currency affects everybody. You can't escape it. If housing fees and electricity bills keep increasing you don't have to depend on the government for it to affect you.

Of course, we will not be completely immune when inflation increases, fiat currency depreciates day by day. But there's always a way for it not to affect us too much. I've never been pessimistic about what's going on because I've been prepared for these as well, and I'm more fortunate that my work has progressed so well in recent years. Therefore, inflation or recession is not a big deal for me, everything is still under my control.
When the recession occurs, not all industries will be seriously affected, there are still some industries that grow quite well, and we still have the opportunity to make money if we know how to take advantage.

[o48o]

I never been become pessimistic about the economy since  I never depend on the government for my living.
-cut-

I don't think you are grasping how much you are depending on government and how much it affects your living even if you are not living with welfare.

Depending where you live governments are the reason why you have for example working transportation, water, energy, education, healthcare, cultural, defence, security and safety and communication infrastructures in place. And i am sure i forgot many others.

Government is a complex system and many of us don't seem to appreciate what they get from it until it's taken away.

[kryptqnick]

I'm a pleb like most of you, and I too have, many times, become pesimistic about the economy in general and in what's about to come. But has anyone ever considered that,

- The economy is not going to crash into a recession
- That there will be an actual soft landing
- That the Russia - Ukraine war will not escalate into a European war
- That Gensler CAN'T truly ban crypto
- Institutional investors will come back and take Bitcoin to six digits

I'm probably missing more narratives, but you get the idea.

I think the economy is likely to go into recession, but it's not the end of the world. I think it's natural to have some periods of growth and some periods of decline. The problem is not in the recession per se, but how it will be handled and how to ensure that the most vulnerable are somewhat protected from it. I don't know about the soft landing, but it's possible. As for Russia's war against Ukraine, I agree that it's likely to remain within the borders of these two countries because Ukraine is strong enough (with proper financial and military support, of course) to defend itself and at the very least not allow Russia to advance, and also because Russia is weakened by this war so much that risking an actual war with NATO is not something they can afford.
Gensler can't but also isn't trying to completely ban cryptos. As for institutional investors, I don't believe that they bring stability, to be honest, and I don't care if they come back or not. Bitcoin can grow without them.

[iv4n]

...
Government is a complex system and many of us don't seem to appreciate what they get from it until it's taken away.

I guess that a "good" country has a government that provides more to its citizens than it takes from them. But unfortunately, this is not the case in many countries... I think we can say that even in some good countries situation now looks a lot different than before with so many immigrants from all countries. This is an interesting article: https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/11/17/even-sweden-doesnt-want-migrants-anymore-syria-iraq-belarus/

But we can't forget that even many of those "good" and developed countries made their economy by exploiting everything and anything, mostly in the third world countries and people who live there... they still do it. So this kind of economy we have now (and for centuries) should end... I am optimistic about that end! Simply if we wish to see a better world (not just some countries and cities with "privileges") for all the people (not just for the "elite") we need to see some big changes. And that will happen eventually, I can only hope that I will be alive to see that.

[Jet Cash]

I'm pessimistic about my country, but optimistic about my future. I've tried to understand what the motivea are behind the actions on the world chess board, and I hope I've arranged my affairs to take advantage of the changing situation. The Russia/Ukrain war is an American war, and it was instigated by Washington to clear out a load of old and broken weapons which could be charged to the taxpayers. Do you realise that Putin negotiated a peace settlement over a year ago, and this was signed by both Ukrain and Russia. It was agreed that Ukraine would remain neutral and not join NATO, and in return Russia would pay several million dollars, and withdraw troopps from Kiev. Well Russia honoured its side of the bargain, but following a visit by Boris johnson ( and Eton/Oxford banking elistist) Ukrain reneged on its agreed part, and opted to continue allowing Ukrainians to be killed so that the military industrial complex could continue to reap the profits. There will never be peace until the power of the Eton/Oxford elites are removed from political power. Don't forget Clinto and othe Americans were Oxford Rhodes scholars.

There will be a recession across the globe. The misuse of energy and the Net Zero initiatives will ensure this. The bankers need to do something to lose and reduce debts.

The biggest threat to our future is the poisoning of our food supplies, and the introduction of oral mRNA "vaccines". Plus all of the other pharma poisins that are spreading around the world. I'm contantly amazed that som many people support the "green new deal", and fail to realise that it is really a "grey new deal" designed to inflict severe damage on the envirinment and national economies,

[livingfree]

I'm a pleb like most of you, and I too have, many times, become pesimistic about the economy in general and in what's about to come. But has anyone ever considered that,

- The economy is not going to crash into a recession
- That there will be an actual soft landing
- That the Russia - Ukraine war will not escalate into a European war
- That Gensler CAN'T truly ban crypto
- Institutional investors will come back and take Bitcoin to six digits

I'm probably missing more narratives, but you get the idea.

I do get the idea and I guess that this year is just like the start of the latter two points you've mentioned. It's all being set as we see Bitcoin ETF applications left and right.

And that's like a push to what we're about to see and I'm not in a hurry but added my optimism on what's ahead to the market. Having that sum of the entire economy of the world had given me some doubts.

But just as what we say on this market, everything that goes down must come up and vice versa.

[CarnagexD]

I'm a pleb like most of you, and I too have, many times, become pesimistic about the economy in general and in what's about to come. But has anyone ever considered that,

- The economy is not going to crash into a recession
- That there will be an actual soft landing
- That the Russia - Ukraine war will not escalate into a European war
- That Gensler CAN'T truly ban crypto
- Institutional investors will come back and take Bitcoin to six digits

I'm probably missing more narratives, but you get the idea.

But more importantly, what are you going to do with it? Maybe the economy is not going to crash into a recession, the question is "How are you going to capitulate the bull market then?" If there will be an actual soft landing, war will not escalate into a greater war, Gensler CAN'T truly ban crypto. Then this is a good sign, what again are you going to do about it? Will you put more money at risk? Will you invest more?  And if whales come back and take Bitcoin to six digits, how are you going to participate and take your profits?

You see, it's not about what you know. It's all about how you behave whether the economy is doing good or bad. What are you going to do with it?

[Natalim]

snipped..

But more importantly, what are you going to do with it? Maybe the economy is not going to crash into a recession, the question is "How are you going to capitulate the bull market then?" If there will be an actual soft landing, war will not escalate into a greater war, Gensler CAN'T truly ban crypto. Then this is a good sign, what again are you going to do about it? Will you put more money at risk? Will you invest more?  And if whales come back and take Bitcoin to six digits, how are you going to participate and take your profits?

You see, it's not about what you know. It's all about how you behave whether the economy is doing good or bad. What are you going to do with it?

Our actions correspond to risks and consequences. Yes, it is not all about what we know but of what we are going to do in anticipating the possible worse scenario. As we are aware of the possible conflicts, market recession, and high inflation, then we have to start preparing for it, and having good investments (like in Bitcoin) will help a lot when it comes to financial preparation. Now, we can't just stay simple and lazy but must work hard because this will have an impact on the economy of the country when everyone is helping themselves to grow.

[slapper]

Perhaps we may dodge the foretold economic downturn. Like a sailboat navigating a storm, economies exhibit a strange knack for self-correction. The elements in this intricate dance are numerous and entwined, defying simplistic prediction.

Regarding the geopolitical landscape, historical trends hint at the eventual pacification of conflicts. Your view on the Russia-Ukraine standoff, therefore, isn't entirely baseless. Diplomacy and negotiation have always been powerful peace-keepers on the world stage.

As to the specter of a crypto ban, we're in total agreement. The prospect of Gensler, or anyone for that matter, achieving a full crypto ban seems improbable given its growing popularity and decentralized architecture.

As for a six-digit Bitcoin? Crypto markets are renowned for their unpredictability. Big players can and do influence these markets, and their resurgence could ignite the next surge. Yet, the when and how remain enigmatic.

[sana54210]

Being pessimistic is like being hopeless toward a particular situation.
The Russian -Ukrainain war has taken a turn, what's left about being skeptical?
The optimist sees and hopes for the best.

As per the economy, I remain pessimistic though, unless multiple streams of income cease to exist or become a taboo in society. I don't think the economy (be it in recession or inflation) of anyone who always has money to spend on top 5 of their scale of preference weekly, would be noticeably affected if they have multiple streams of making money like BTC trading, content creation and other skills that can be remotely done from anywhere.

The whales can always influence BTC, but it is only going to be short lived as the idea of the man 'Gensler' concerning banning crypto, would be almost soon forgotten with other rising matters soon to befall the U.S market.

All of that war thing is definitely a temporary situation, we can't have a war going on forever in the middle of Europe for decades, it's already been long enough considering the first 2014 one, and we are getting close to 2024 with only just less than half of the year remaining, we shouldn't really have any situation where it continues for longer. If we can fix the situation and the war is over, economy will be much better.

However, considering that bitcoin is something that benefits when the economy is bad, I am very optimistic about my own economy, because I have been invested for a long time, it is not as good as it used to be for me, the bear period collided with some financial trouble of mine, but in 1 more month I am going to be great, starting September I will be much much better again.

[eightdots]

I get the idea but, it's hard not to be pessimistic about everything happening. 
The inflation rate keeps increasing, unemployment rates, cost of living, insecurities, violence, and every other negative thing happening in the world. Looking at how things are especially in developing countries there seems to be no light at the end of the tunnel. I don't believe there would be a world war or European war but I just don't see things getting better than they used to be or it better than it is now.

It's hard not to be pessimistic. In the world we live in, almost every country is dealing with inflation and wars are taking place. People have a hard time finding food and there are a lot more like that. It's hard not to be pessimistic while all this is going on.

I don't think there will be a European war either. If that were possible, things would be very different than they are now. The strange thing is that some countries are worse off than countries where there is war. Even at the latest inflation rates, Ukraine and Russia were better than most countries. Sometimes I can't make sense of the world economy and what's going on.

I hope this pessimism will go away soon, the wars will end and the world economy will recover.

[Kasabus]

I'm not optimistic about the economy in general but I'm very optimistic about the future of Bitcoin, not only is it going to hit six figures but it's on its way to global adoption soon in the future.

I'm also optimistic that it's not up to governments to ban cryptocurrencies, I'm not sad if they ban some because many of them are already worthless, but the general idea is that they can't ban bitcoin and other major currencies.

What I care about is that after all these big problems and strong campaigns on exchanges and companies related to Crypto, in the end, Bitcoin emerged as the biggest victor, and the community and even large companies’ confidence in Bitcoin increased.

That’s also my point. I don’t have any control whatever will happen to the world’s economy and I don’t find any positive reason to engage myself in it. However, my only concern is the future of bitcoin. I know it has still a lot of potentials to give so hopefully, the government will somehow be open minded about bitcoin and just give the people’s freedom if they want to utilize bitcoin just like how they became fiat dependent before. But for sure, it takes a lot of study and keen observation before the government will start to acknowledge the good side of bitcoin.

[Vaculin]

I'm a pleb like most of you, and I too have, many times, become pesimistic about the economy in general and in what's about to come. But has anyone ever considered that,

- The economy is not going to crash into a recession
- That there will be an actual soft landing
- That the Russia - Ukraine war will not escalate into a European war
- That Gensler CAN'T truly ban crypto
- Institutional investors will come back and take Bitcoin to six digits

I'm probably missing more narratives, but you get the idea.

I’m not actually pessimistic about the economy but if these scenarios will continue, then I don’t see any reason to be optimistic at all. So I’m not actually expecting a lot more of it. But what I think should people be more optimistic is how bitcoin can be very reasonable and profitable in the long run. Bitcoin may not reached its peak at the moment but let us remember that bitcoin is very uncertain, it can be very low today but the following day, it could be at its peak price already. So keep your high hopes that bitcoin will still gonna make it and will give us 6 or 7 digit price this year or a year after.

[BitcoinTurk]

Although I have an optimistic personality, I have started to have very pessimistic thoughts about the global economy especially in the last 1.5 years. These pessimistic thoughts imprison my mind as I see that the country's economies cannot develop due to extremely difficult conditions as well as the ever-increasing living costs, house rents and personal expenses. I constantly think that we may face an economic crisis worse than the 2008 crisis especially due to the inflation problem we have been encountering recently, the impoverishment of the households and the fact that the central banks are constantly printing money.

In general the economic measures taken are only to save the day and if we need to think about the negative impact on the economy in the long-term process, unfortunately, there is no other time left to be pessimistic about the world economy.

[dothebeats]

I haven't become pessimistic, but I recognize the signs when I see them. There's just a lot of negative stuff going on that the only plausible effect is recession or a crash. Prices of goods aren't getting better, and a lot of people are slowly becoming jobless. Well, if there are more jobs, then the pay isn't really getting higher, causing more and more people to cut corners and just get their overall life quality a lot worse.