Will another ETF be immediately bullish for Bitcoin?

[rhomelmabini]

Mr gary seems dont like the bitcoin etf

He really is, I wonder if he steps down and we will be able to see a spot Bitcoin ETF, maybe in the coming years. There's still time left before these recent filings expires and it's still up to September the next year and if approved by ser Gary even one filings that would be very bullish for the whole market, no doubt. We even see the sentiment gearing up even if it's just still a filing, how much more when it's within investor's grasp? Too bullish.

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[yhiaali3]

Personally I would expect the effect of another Bitcoin ETF on the price in the immediate term if approved would be positive, of course we will see a lot of volatility but it will be positive in the end.

You can see the positive impact that happened as soon as you hear the news, if BlackRock is actually approved, at least with a very large capital, there will be a lot of liquidity entering the market and therefore the effect is expected to be immediate.

Of course, there are other companies with additional liquidity that will enter the market, and this will certainly have a great positive impact. In addition to the moral victory the market will gain if it wins this battle with the SEC.

[dragonvslinux]

I hope you are not making this into a case of correlation = causation but as history indicates, there is always a hype before or during the long-awaited event. Especially when it comes to ETFs. I cannot think of a reason why ETF launches (or similar product launches) would cause a rapid sell-off, other than to superficially push down the price.

I think, that in the long term, Bitcoin's value will go up thanks to the ETF. But in the short term, I think we will see a unjustified speculative price based on hype alone. So good news for any hodler but bad news for traders with shaky hands.

We just have to wait and see what happens. Only time will tell.

Isn't this same sort of correlation = causation you are making, but with added context? As you said, in the short-term there is unjustified price speculation to the upside, which is more than enough to lead to a sell-off as we have seen with CME launch, Bakkt as well as Pro-Shares. So there is effectively a causation for this correlation which is the price speculation to put it simply, instead of being completely random.

What I meant is that although there are signs pointing to an incoming ETF hype having a similar effect on the price of BTC as it did in the past, we cannot make predictions on the price action just yet, because there is not enough historical data to make a statistical prediction on this specific event. We have had only a precious few BTC ETF filings in the past so any perceived correlations may turn out to be nothing but coincidence.

Fair point, there is only a few examples to go by, even if all were bearish scenarios, it's far from a conclusive trend.

But what we know to be true and tested many times is the fact that whenever there is a positive hype, there is overblown speculative price growth.

This is to some degree what I'm expecting. I can't imagine there wouldn't be overblown speculation to the upside if an ETF is approved or date set for launch. And with these speculative overblown moves to the upside there is always a correction that follows. Given that the speculation usually leads up to the event, rather than begins during/afterwards, then this is my theory for a considerable correction post launch.

Ie if the question were will price be bullish speculation leading into an ETF launch I'd say absolutely, this is my main reasoning for considering the launch itself to trigger a bearish correction.

Update :  

Nice graphic +1

[dansus021]

Mr gary seems dont like the bitcoin etf

He really is, I wonder if he steps down and we will be able to see a spot Bitcoin ETF, maybe in the coming years. There's still time left before these recent filings expires and it's still up to September the next year and if approved by ser Gary even one filings that would be very bullish for the whole market, no doubt. We even see the sentiment gearing up even if it's just still a filing, how much more when it's within investor's grasp? Too bullish.

"Why a Bitcoin ETF approval would be a big deal" - https://cointelegraph.com/news/why-a-bitcoin-etf-approval-would-be-a-big-deal

Gary just holds the bitcoin growing in my opinion, according to the Forbes Advisor Bitcoin is growing it already touch the 1 Billion mark so it will continue to rise if the recent filling get approval well the 35K level it will achive at the end of year

- https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/cryptocurrency/best-bitcoin-etfs/

[Dave1]

Mr gary seems dont like the bitcoin etf

He really is, I wonder if he steps down and we will be able to see a spot Bitcoin ETF, maybe in the coming years. There's still time left before these recent filings expires and it's still up to September the next year and if approved by ser Gary even one filings that would be very bullish for the whole market, no doubt. We even see the sentiment gearing up even if it's just still a filing, how much more when it's within investor's grasp? Too bullish.

Or because of his political affiliations, he is forced not to accept any Bitcoin ETF as long as he is the Chairman of SEC. Which means this is really bad for us whatever we like it or not. Because there is an argument that we don't need ETF itself, but on the other hand, there is a proponent and we see huge amount of institutional money flowing in the market that can push us to the next level, at least 6 digit next bull run. So we will see how it goes, I have a feeling that we might have a breakthrough acceptance in the next future coinciding with a a new all time high.

[gunhell16]

We know that in the past few years regarding that in the past ETFs, all that happened were rejections, that's why there was only a massive dump in the Bitcoin value, and it was repeated several times and there were many witnesses.

Now, if this time next year there is a positive result about in that ETF, this will probably be the first time that there is an approved application that passed in ETF if I'm not mistaken in my understanding and it's good, and very favorable to bitcoin holders because there will surely be a rally in the market in terms of its value.

[bitgolden]

I know that it would be good for everyone to see bitcoin price going up and we love these things but that doesn't mean we are going to end up with a good result right away, plus we shouldn't really see one for a while longer there is no doubt that no ETF will happen these days.

What I really want to see is Gary getting fired, that would be a great reason for bitcoin to go up, I know not a lot of people expect that to be the case and we are not going to get a lot of good results right away, but I feel like that would be a good one. I think it is going to be very important for us all and if that happens then we can see that Gary can't do bad stuff about crypto companies anymore and the price would react to that which would be going up a lot.

[adaseb]

Today I think on CNBC or Bloomberg or one of the larger finance stations they had the former head of the SEC who is claiming that SEC should approve the Bitcoin ETF.

How did the markets react? They didn’t seem to care. So until we get a solid YES or NO most likely nothing will come of this Bitcoin etf speculation. Plus there is also the halving which is going to happen at a similar time when the majority of these etfs are going to be approved or denied.

[LogitechMouse]

If it's a spot Bitcoin ETH, it might make the price of Bitcoin reach it's previous ATH faster than everyone would've thought.
I just watched a video hours ago regarding ETF's.

It said on that video that the best example on what could be the effect of a spot Bitcoin ETF is the first Gold spot ETF that has been accepted many years ago. Before that, the price of Gold was at around $400 per ounce. After it got accepted, the price of Gold went from ~$400 to around ~$2000 in just a span of 7 years.

If Blackrock's filing for spot Bitcoin ETF will get accepted by SEC, I'm pretty sure that it will have the same effect as when the Gold spot ETF was accepted, and the good thing is that I expect that it will be faster that's why I expect Bitcoin to reach it's previous ATH of ~$69,000 way earlier, and when I mean way earlier, it might happen a few months before the halving. Now to answer the question, yes it will be a bullish because investors see this as a good thing and when there's a good thing happening with the market, people tend to buy more thus, increasing it's price.

The problem right now is Gary Gensler who is holding these spot Bitcoin ETF's, but on the other hand, of all the 550+ number of ETF's Blackrock has filed, only one got rejected. Still the chances of it to be accepted would be 50/50 so anything can happen. Overall, this filing would have a huge effect on Bitcoin's price, and the whole crypto market as well.

[DeathAngel]

A Spot ETF approval(s) would be absolutely bullish for bitcoin. There is no doubt about that. It allows a whole new wave of money to flow into bitcoin which is this far prohibited. The sooner it happen, the better. I think the SEC will approve one before too long due to pressure from respected big names in the world of finance.

[OgNasty]

I’m surprised to see that news outlets are saying there’s only about a 50% chance of an ETF approval. Not sure what time like they’re putting with those odds, but at this point I’d say the odds are closer to 100% with the banks filing for these funds and it will be bullish. I also believe approvals have been delayed until this point to try and match the demand with the supply from distribution of the mtgox coins.

[goldkingcoiner]

I’m surprised to see that news outlets are saying there’s only about a 50% chance of an ETF approval. Not sure what time like they’re putting with those odds, but at this point I’d say the odds are closer to 100% with the banks filing for these funds and it will be bullish. I also believe approvals have been delayed until this point to try and match the demand with the supply from distribution of the mtgox coins.

Oh they have no idea! They are just stating 50% so they can cover their butts no matter which direction the ETF result goes. It's just them baiting readers as a sort of marketing tactic to grow their own reader audience. No matter which way it goes, the publishers will boast of a true prediction from their side.

I too would be leaning towards ETF approval at this point.

The first signal of an approval would be a pump. Half an hour to an hour later, we will see social media blowing up and lastly, the "news" will be the "first" to report on it.

[mvdheuvel1983]

Let me know your thoughts in the comments. Do you really think another ETF launch would cause an immediate price increase, or is it more like to have an immediate negative effect on price?

I believe that the launch of another ETF will result in a gradual and consistent increase in the price of Bitcoin for two reasons. Firstly, by making a Bitcoin available for trading on major US stock exchanges, it will grant access to Bitcoin exposure for millions of individuals who are already invested in various forms of stocks, ETFs, or indices. Secondly, as new investors enter this ETF, there is a high probability that they will become interested in learning how to purchase actual Bitcoin. Doing their own research on whether to invest in the Bitcoin ETF will therefore lead individuals to discover the advantages of holding their own bitcoin and the financial independence that can result from it. As more people adopt this bitcoin, the demand for Bitcoin will rise, consequently driving up its price. We have already witnessed a similar effect with BlackRock Bitcoin ETF and what it did to the price.

[laurenB7742]

Let me know your thoughts in the comments. Do you really think another ETF launch would cause an immediate price increase, or is it more like to have an immediate negative effect on price?

I believe that the launch of another ETF will result in a gradual and consistent increase in the price of Bitcoin for two reasons. Firstly, by making a Bitcoin available for trading on major US stock exchanges, it will grant access to Bitcoin exposure for millions of individuals who are already invested in various forms of stocks, ETFs, or indices. Secondly, as new investors enter this ETF, there is a high probability that they will become interested in learning how to purchase actual Bitcoin. Doing their own research on whether to invest in the Bitcoin ETF will therefore lead individuals to discover the advantages of holding their own bitcoin and the financial independence that can result from it. As more people adopt this bitcoin, the demand for Bitcoin will rise, consequently driving up its price. We have already witnessed a similar effect with BlackRock Bitcoin ETF and what it did to the price.

If news about ETFs can help push up the price of bitcoin, we should also be careful because if they are not accepted, it will also negatively affect the market. Everything has its two sides, don't just look at the benefits but forget about its bad effects on the market. And so far, the SEC has consistently rejected and delayed ETFs, so I don't take this news too seriously. News about ETFs will be interesting if we are in 2017, 2018, but nothing too new right now.

[dragonvslinux]

Let me know your thoughts in the comments. Do you really think another ETF launch would cause an immediate price increase, or is it more like to have an immediate negative effect on price?

I believe that the launch of another ETF will result in a gradual and consistent increase in the price of Bitcoin for two reasons. Firstly, by making a Bitcoin available for trading on major US stock exchanges, it will grant access to Bitcoin exposure for millions of individuals who are already invested in various forms of stocks, ETFs, or indices. Secondly, as new investors enter this ETF, there is a high probability that they will become interested in learning how to purchase actual Bitcoin. Doing their own research on whether to invest in the Bitcoin ETF will therefore lead individuals to discover the advantages of holding their own bitcoin and the financial independence that can result from it. As more people adopt this bitcoin, the demand for Bitcoin will rise, consequently driving up its price. We have already witnessed a similar effect with BlackRock Bitcoin ETF and what it did to the price.

If news about ETFs can help push up the price of bitcoin, we should also be careful because if they are not accepted, it will also negatively affect the market. Everything has its two sides, don't just look at the benefits but forget about its bad effects on the market. And so far, the SEC has consistently rejected and delayed ETFs, so I don't take this news too seriously.

This is a very good point that I hadn't seen anyone mention yet. For example if you believe that the reason why price rebounded strong from $25K to $30K is because of the ETF filings - which personally I'm not convinced of, but many believe this it seems - then any rejection could well see price correct back towards where it came from prior to the "bullish ETF" news, ie around $25K.

I can't remember exact examples but I do remember previous ETF rejections having a negative effect on price, likewise any approval would almost certainly be bullish for price (at least until the launch date).

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

Let me know your thoughts in the comments. Do you really think another ETF launch would cause an immediate price increase, or is it more like to have an immediate negative effect on price?

I believe that the launch of another ETF will result in a gradual and consistent increase in the price of Bitcoin for two reasons. Firstly, by making a Bitcoin available for trading on major US stock exchanges, it will grant access to Bitcoin exposure for millions of individuals who are already invested in various forms of stocks, ETFs, or indices. Secondly, as new investors enter this ETF, there is a high probability that they will become interested in learning how to purchase actual Bitcoin. Doing their own research on whether to invest in the Bitcoin ETF will therefore lead individuals to discover the advantages of holding their own bitcoin and the financial independence that can result from it. As more people adopt this bitcoin, the demand for Bitcoin will rise, consequently driving up its price. We have already witnessed a similar effect with BlackRock Bitcoin ETF and what it did to the price.

If news about ETFs can help push up the price of bitcoin, we should also be careful because if they are not accepted, it will also negatively affect the market. Everything has its two sides, don't just look at the benefits but forget about its bad effects on the market. And so far, the SEC has consistently rejected and delayed ETFs, so I don't take this news too seriously.

This is a very good point that I hadn't seen anyone mention yet. For example if you believe that the reason why price rebounded strong from $25K to $30K is because of the ETF filings - which personally I'm not convinced of, but many believe this it seems - then any rejection could well see price correct back towards where it came from prior to the "bullish ETF" news, ie around $25K.

I can't remember exact examples but I do remember previous ETF rejections having a negative effect on price, likewise any approval would almost certainly be bullish for price (at least until the launch date).

Definitely, market reacts to the news itself, but there could be non effect at all as we have been hearing this ETF as far back as 2016 and yet the market thrives and reaching new all time high every 4 year cycle.

However, as bitcoin market is growing, there could be pros and cons of having and ETF instrument in the future. For one who will see institutional money flowing in and this could be the biggest reasons why the price might to go 6 digits in the future.

[hatshepsut93]

If an ETF will get approved sometime close to the halvening, it might become a source of media hype that will help to fuel the bull run (that would happen with or without it). In the previous cycle we had "institutional adoption hype", with Microstrategy leading the way, Tesla following and later a few other companies making statements about adopting Bitcoin, that seem to never materialize.

But I think the relationship between the media hype and bull run is not clear. Is the hype causing the bull run or the bull run creates a need to explain it, so positive news get amplified?

[_BlackStar]

I fully believe that if a spot bitcoin ETF gets approved - then the high demand for bitcoin will drive its price to the moon. That's the best assumption I can think of - but either way this bitcoin ETF doesn't seem like it's going to be that easy to get approved for. The SEC seems to disagree about ETFs, they may be afraid that when the price of bitcoin goes to the moon then the stability of the world economy will be disturbed and they will not be able to control it.

It's great for ETFs to get approved - but I believe this idea won't be easy. Many of us have been preparing to hear the positive news - but some how I think it will be hard to come true.

[STT]

I think we're discussing the next election cycle if it requires a large change in opinion behind prior refusals and most probably a change in the official barring the approval required.  So that time line is next year not this year and actually maybe end of next year into 2025 before any ETF would be near to available for the ordinary person interested.   Theres GBTC now but when I inquire on that route its not available to me especially and thats probably the case for a few others.   I would have bought already if it was clearly available, it would probably help BTC some for a short while at least but also reverse some of the support helping other alternate proxies currently used by people for BTC in their portfolio.

[bbc.reporter]

I’m surprised to see that news outlets are saying there’s only about a 50% chance of an ETF approval. Not sure what time like they’re putting with those odds, but at this point I’d say the odds are closer to 100% with the banks filing for these funds and it will be bullish. I also believe approvals have been delayed until this point to try and match the demand with the supply from distribution of the mtgox coins.

Agreed. These cryptonews outlets might also have given less of a 50% chance for Brad Garlichouse and Ripple to win the lawsuit that the SEC filed against the company hehehe. When the ETF is approved, I reckon this is where disbelief is suddenly replaced by hope and optimism.