Will another ETF be immediately bullish for Bitcoin?

[dragonvslinux]

So I thought I'd try and gauge sentiment over how another Bitcoin ETF will affect price in the immediate term if approved, as well as offer my own personal opinion.

I understand it's considered bullish for Bitcoin long-term, but in the short-term, I'm not so convinced it will be good for price. As many of you may remember, when CME/CBOE launched futures trading for Bitcoin in December 2017 this was very much at the peak of the bull-run before a -83% correction in price. Then there was the Bakkt futures launch in September 2019 prior to a further price decline of -50%+. Finally there was the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF that was (again) launched at the very peak of the bull market in November 2021 prior to a 75% price decline. Is anyone else noticing a pattern here???

I realise that previous futures launches are different than the current proposed ETFs, as far as I understand, but the facts remains the same. Each time a traditional form of investment product based on Bitcoin has been launched, price has corrected significantly, between 50% and 83% basically. What's as concerning is that price is currently at a resistance level which could now become a local peak...

Ideally any new product won't be launched until price reaches $40K to $50K levels at a minimum, so that a correction doesn't threaten recent lows. But otherwise I imagine it will be the same old story of "buy the rumour sell the news", with a potential long-term bullish effect on Bitcoin but only after a short-term negative effect that becomes the catalyst for a considerable correction in price.

Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong if there were Bitcoin Futures/ETF launches that didn't negatively effect price in the short-term, as based on my current knowledge, this has been the only outcome so far.

Let me know your thoughts in the comments. Do you really think another ETF launch would cause an immediate price increase, or is it more like to have an immediate negative effect on price?

[1714597994]

1714597994

[1714597994]

1714597994

[1714597994]

1714597994

[OgNasty]

I think that ETFs will be a positive effect on the price for many reasons. As banks see ETFs getting approved they will rush to purchase their own Bitcoin, as it will enable them to launch their own fund and collect fees. This will lead to a feedback loop of growing ETFs bringing higher BTC prices and thus generating more revenue for their fund managers. Scary, but it shows the potential for seemingly endless gains.

[Nwada001]

I don't think there will be any significant change that it can cause on the Bitcoin price, even if there is, it won't be that much again. This is as a result of it being an old move, and the first one may have created positive news on the market that attracted enough investors to rush into the market, which was what just happened a few days ago.
 
Another ETF news might just sustain the market for the main time but won't create any further bullish move since there might be only a few people trying to enter the market again.
The first ETF news is still fresh.

[BITCOIN4X]

Let me know your thoughts in the comments. Do you really think another ETF launch would cause an immediate price increase, or is it more like to have an immediate negative effect on price?

ETFs can impact bitcoin prices. The positive impact can be expected in the long term, but I also tend to doubt the impact in the short term. At least a price correction is still very likely to occur in July until the end of the year, but afterwards prices can be higher.

The good and bad effects of ETFs on prices in the past may be called fluke by some, but I believe the same pattern could repeat itself ahead of the 2024 bitcoin halving. I wouldn't worry too much about another big correction in the next 6 months, but it should be considered as an opportunity to collect more bitcoin.

[taufik123]

-snip-
The good and bad effects of ETFs on prices in the past may be called fluke by some, but I believe the same pattern could repeat itself ahead of the 2024 bitcoin halving. I wouldn't worry too much about another big correction in the next 6 months, but it should be considered as an opportunity to collect more bitcoin.

Maybe this will be the last opportunity before the Halving is reached, so there is still a chance to get Bitcoin at a cheap price.
The current price is still stable above $30k and if the price corrects then the opportunity to buy again.

There is a possibility that the same pattern will repeat itself, but of course, there are changes in each pattern following the development of current prices and market conditions. Hoping that the new ATH will be reached in Halving 2024 and that is everyone's hope of course.

[m2017]

~snip

I predict that ETF, at least for a short time, can raise the price by bitcoin. The question is how long this will last. Whether this will be the beginning of a bullish trend is hard to say. If all factors converge, then ETF could be the catalyst for the next bullrun. It is not easy to predict, because this is a cryptomarket in which there are many players-BTC-buyers/sellers and it is impossible to predict the actions of everyone. There is more chaos than order, sequence and regularity. In one thing, I am sure that this event should not have a negative impact, because, after all, this is positive news.

[Poker Player]

I think it is most likely that once it is launched the price will go up, now in the mid and long term I am not clear if it can add volatility because just as a lot of money can come into the Bitcoin market in a derivative way, it can also go out.

As many of you may remember, when CME/CBOE launched futures trading for Bitcoin in December 2017 this was very much at the peak of the bull-run before a -83% correction in price. Then there was the Bakkt futures launch in September 2019 prior to a further price decline of -50%+. Finally there was the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF that was (again) launched at the very peak of the bull market in November 2021 prior to a 75% price decline. Is anyone else noticing a pattern here???

Well, it doesn't have to happen that way this time, but we shouldn't be surprised if it does. That's why I am not sure if it's going to be bullish in the long run.

[adaseb]

Most likely if there is word that it’s approved there will be a huge rally. Because since it’s a spot etf, it means that the issuer needs actual physical bitcoins, and these are scarse on exchanges pretty much in large quantities. So there will be a bubble of some sort but a mini bubble.

Then when it launches most likely it will peak like it did the prior 2 times and start to head down wards. Unless we think that this time it will be different.

[348Judah]

Should we believe that it was because of the incidence of bitcoin ETF that causes the sudden rise of bitcoin just as many had porported from their assumption, things can happen the way we never expected but I don't think there's a correlation between this experience to why bitcoin is experiencing a little surge, I've heard of some people saying it was because of BlackRock moves for spot bitcoin ETF and so on but the truth is that there's nothing to show in relating these occurrences together.

[Lucius]

I don't think that previous events were crucial for price correction, because if we start from the end of 2017 then it is easy to conclude that the bubble simply had to burst after many investors completely misunderstood what futures contracts are and how they will affect the price of BTC - and the same thing happened at the peak of 2021.

As for Bakkt, that story has been pumped for months as something big, when in fact the pandemic was already knocking on the door even though mere mortals didn't know it. In addition, the 50% drop occurred only in March when a pandemic was declared, but then a lot of bad things happened and Bitcoin was no exception.

The story around BlackRock and Fidelity (Grayscale) can have positive effects, especially if the SEC accepts their request and this acceptance is closely correlated with halving. If we take into account the time limit within which the SEC has to make a final decision (240 days) then this brings us to January 2024, just a little more than 2 months before halving.

Given that BR&F are big players and companies with over $10 trillion under management, and that it is a spot ETF, I believe that a positive decision would have a significant impact on the price of BTC. The real question is whether the average investor understands what this is really about or thinks it's just a repeat of another old story with a failed BTC ETFs.

[Husires]

Bitcoin ETF is a kind of legal tint, and we are talking about a legal tint in the United States that will allow institutional investors to invest in the United States in bitcoin. As we note, the regulatory news reflects positively on the price, so it is expected that we will witness a rise in return.

Ideally any new product won't be launched until price reaches $40K to $50K levels at a minimum, so that a correction doesn't threaten recent lows. But otherwise I imagine it will be the same old story of "buy the rumour sell the news", with a potential long-term bullish effect on Bitcoin but only after a short-term negative effect that becomes the catalyst for a considerable correction in price.

No need to quote futures here as we already have Canadian Cryptocurrency ETFs that we can compare to the price of Bitcoin.
I expect the rise to be limited to 30% as a maximum in short term, according to the market situation and the strength of the resistance level at that time, and I expect it to be sometime in the year 2024.

[buwaytress]

I was just mentioning ETFs recently, been so long I'd completely forgotten their names -- the memories of seeing the likes of Bakkt get mentioned in 4 out of 5 articles, all that pre-euphoria about "institutional" and then when the product actually birthed, the laughable volumes.

But back to the question: are the launches correlated with price action? I think so -- but not so much a cause-effect. I think ETFs try to time when they believe sentiment is right (so less about a bear/dip but a great entry before the rally they're predicting). And whoever's advising them to make their bets doesn't seem to understand that rallies don't come so soon after a fall.

Another massive drop after another ETF launch won't be terrible news for me though

[Balmain]

I know that the approval period for the ETF application is 8 months. A few companies have applied for ETF recently, most importantly BlackRock has only one red eft transaction they have made so far. Most likely, if the supervisory authority approves at the end of eight months, you know, this time coincides with the halving, if it coincides with the same time, this parallel event can wake up the super bulls. Let's say the ETF was not approved and rejected, there is not much that can hold the bull because there will be a halving again and the supply will decrease, so the demands will come true at the right time. If the ETF application is rejected in less than eight months and the red lines increase further, this is an opportunity to buy bitcoin cheap.

[Franctoshi]

I know that the approval period for the ETF application is 8 months. A few companies have applied for ETF recently, most importantly BlackRock has only one red eft transaction they have made so far. Most likely, if the supervisory authority approves at the end of eight months, you know, this time coincides with the halving, if it coincides with the same time, this parallel event can wake up the super bulls. Let's say the ETF was not approved and rejected, there is not much that can hold the bull because there will be a halving again and the supply will decrease, so the demands will come true at the right time. If the ETF application is rejected in less than eight months and the red lines increase further, this is an opportunity to buy Bitcoin cheaply.

Based on the number of Applicants seeking ETF approval recently, I do believe that the Bitcoin ETF this time around has more percentage chance of getting approved. Then I agree with you on the fact that, If eventually, ETF approval happens at the same time as the halving period, It is going to trigger the next bull run, but my concern here is that we may experience selling the news event may first play out. , meaning a slight dump first, then the main event, the Bull market kickstart.

[bbc.reporter]

I realise that previous futures launches are different than the current proposed ETFs, as far as I understand, but the facts remains the same. Each time a traditional form of investment product based on Bitcoin has been launched, price has corrected significantly, between 50% and 83% basically. What's as concerning is that price is currently at a resistance level which could now become a local peak...

Does the futures market determine the price of bitcoin or does the spot market? I am quite certain that everyone already knows the answer to this.

In any case, a spot ETF will be very bullish for bitcoin. I do not know why there are some people who refuse to understand the difference between spot and futures ETF.

[mk4]

It depends. There's a significant difference between a futures ETF and a spot ETF filing. We've had a futures ETF for a while now, so price effect would be miniscule. A spot ETF from a major player on the other hand? Expect short-term bullishness.

As for the long term, it will totally depend how much demand the bitcoin ETF would actually end up getting.

[adaseb]

Apparently ARK updated their Bitcoin etf filing and made it a similar trust as blackrock and the rest of the proposed upcoming Bitcoin etfs.

What is interesting is that ARK deadline is in August. It’s before blackrock and the rest. So we should know soon if this will be a go ahead or not. Most likely if ARK is rejected, so will the rest of the etfs.

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

Depends on which cycle we have in my opinion, as you have said, the CME/CBoe enter when we are in peak of the bull run in 2017, pushing to a new all time high. But after that, it was all downhill for us and even if we have the Bakkt news, still it didn't have significant effect on 2019 and almost everyone here forget about Bakkt.

So maybe if there is a chance that ETF be approved next year and the timing for a block halving and then a bull run. For sure it might added a new set of FOMO and bullish case for a massive growth 2024-2025.

[sana54210]

Apparently ARK updated their Bitcoin etf filing and made it a similar trust as blackrock and the rest of the proposed upcoming Bitcoin etfs.

What is interesting is that ARK deadline is in August. It’s before blackrock and the rest. So we should know soon if this will be a go ahead or not. Most likely if ARK is rejected, so will the rest of the etfs.

Those type of changes do not matter ,in fact ETF doesn't matter anymore, people acted as if that would make bitcoin be worth so much more but the reality is that we are not going to really see anything that would be as big. It is not that big because it is not going to be a great market addition to us. At first it was very important when the first talks started but the reality is that we are not going to see that type of increase all that quickly and the results will not be that easy.

I personally believe that the hype ETF has will not be a big deal and we should be considering that as a nothing at all and should be seeing it as easy option to just ignore. ETF will not make it bigger, I am sure of this but can't really provide any proof of that.

[OgNasty]

Another day another large company showing their intent to create a Bitcoin ETF. the effect this is going to have on the Bitcoin market will in my opinion follow gold’s footsteps. Gold went up from around $275 per ounce to $1800 per ounce in the 8 years following its ETF’s launch. When you factor in BTC’s halvings and scarcity, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to make the statement that BTC will hit $800,000 in 2033.

(1800/275)*4*30,555.56=800K

(Get gold’s increase)*account for halvings*insert BTC price=BTC price 8 years after ETFs go live.