DISCUSSION-How hard is it to beat a sportsbook?

[quanth1919]

You probably didn't try your best to look for a bookmaker that is not a scam. Stake.com had been around for years. I'd be surprised if you hadn't heard of it.

What I'm not sure of is what you mean by beating a sportbook, they are pretty much rich and they limit how much you can bet if they are not able to pay you if you win. Thats sort of how it works and guarantees you may not be able to bankrupt them.

I think his scam description to crypto bookies are those casino that limit a user when they are winning frequently that makes user like him doesn’t have enough time to play more in the casino to generate more profit. Most of the case of casino scam accusation usually involves sports betting. The reason for that is because user is placing only on valued bets or on matches that is flagged as fixed match.

I think he will experience that same even on Stake or other reputable bookie since he mention that he is always successful on having a profit by playing on bookies.

well, if he thinks he's not getting ahead anymore on this type of betting, even playing on reputable bookies, then, he can always change his profession and find another industry where he can earn a lot of money. bookies have their own way of getting ahead of this game, after all, they are in this business to earn as much profits as they can. they will go bankrupt if each bettor will beat the house. so do you think, bookies would let this happen? i don't think so.

My point is that whole area is non regulated. There is noone controlling those bookmakers, there is noone controlling or commenting how one Betradar(sportradar) has 90% of market which is actually monopoly.
When you mention fixed matches, how can one Sportsbook be sponsor of multiple clubs in same league?
They see how much is staked on each outcome, see their liability and potential profit and MAYBE influence it...

Of couse that sportsbooks adapt, it's normal but the fact is that they don't answer to anyone and can decide not to pay whenever they want.

Considering later replies, Pinnacle I use regulary while betfair also implements premium tax for constant winners and I use it regulary aswell. My post was intended for normal bookmakers, not sharps as Pinny/Betfair/ibc etc..

[danherbias07]

Well, the odds changes are really noticeable but I do love looking for that freebie where the winner is too obvious, and yet the odds are given in a decent amount.
We cannot beat a sportsbook, they always put it in a way where they have the upper hand. All we can do is take that little profit that we can and try to do it in a consistent way. It is difficult because there will be times when it looks like a trap.
You said you are a successful sports bettor so I guess you know how lesser the risk in betting there than in a casino would be. Most Casino and sports bookies nowadays take most of their profit from their casino games which we all know is where the house always wins. While those who really want to maximize their profits in gambling would just pick the sports industry because we could always increase the chance to win by observation and analysis.
That's the only way we could beat them, it takes a lot of effort to do all the research but it is all worth it when you win the bet.

[elevates]

I have recently started betting on sports, I won't be able to provide you with my overall experience as in I am still a newbie in betting. I started with esports betting and I till now have not felt that it is hard to decide which odd to choose. I agree that the odds are similar on every casino as they might be sourced from one bookmaker. If you are lucky you might get different odds but that is very rare. I have been betting with cryptocurrency and I have not faced the issues that you are quoting in the OP. It is certain that with rapid change happening in technology in these times, things are very different from what is was when you started betting. The only option left is to adapt and work according to it.     

[Mauser]

When it comes to beating a sharp bookie like Pinnacle(which isn't even a sharp anymore), their early limits are ridicilously low and with Early bets you help them correct the lines and remove the value.

I have tried everything in betting world and for the first time in over 15 years I believe that it's time to change profession. I am still making really nice figures but with way more effort and dificulties than before.
Reason for this post is that I want to hear experiences from other bettors and maybe we can help each other with advices

When it comes to sports betting we usually don't play against the bookmaker, but rather against other gambler. That's the main difference to casinos, in a casino well play against the house and when we lose the casino wins. That is why the casino adds a house edge to all it's games to make sure they win in the long run. A bookmakers offers all type of bets, we can bet on a win, lose or draw of our team and the bookie has no preference what we pick. The bookmaker adds a spread to all his bets, that's why we can't just bet on every outcome and make a profit. He is not in the business of making good bets himself on which team is winning and losing, rather the bookie is trying to match all type of bettors against each other. That's why our goal shouldn't be to beat the bookmaker.

[quanth1919]

When it comes to beating a sharp bookie like Pinnacle(which isn't even a sharp anymore), their early limits are ridicilously low and with Early bets you help them correct the lines and remove the value.

I have tried everything in betting world and for the first time in over 15 years I believe that it's time to change profession. I am still making really nice figures but with way more effort and dificulties than before.
Reason for this post is that I want to hear experiences from other bettors and maybe we can help each other with advices

When it comes to sports betting we usually don't play against the bookmaker, but rather against other gambler. That's the main difference to casinos, in a casino well play against the house and when we lose the casino wins. That is why the casino adds a house edge to all it's games to make sure they win in the long run. A bookmakers offers all type of bets, we can bet on a win, lose or draw of our team and the bookie has no preference what we pick. The bookmaker adds a spread to all his bets, that's why we can't just bet on every outcome and make a profit. He is not in the business of making good bets himself on which team is winning and losing, rather the bookie is trying to match all type of bettors against each other. That's why our goal shouldn't be to beat the bookmaker.

You are not correct.
Early lines of events aren't made or moduled by bettors stakes but by bookies and their alghoritms. Closer to the match start odds become more influenced by stakes.
For inplay is simillar. It takes huge number of stakes on one particular outcome to affect odds.
So yes, Pinnacle when open lines has limit 200e. If you hit it, it moves odds. If you hit again, moves again. In that scenario player stakes influence the odds but that is rarity.
Bookies have their lines, they have their juices(nowadays most bookies offer 1.83 on something which is odds 2) and they have sure profits longterm

[Jawhead999]

The most easy way to beat a sportsbook is through arbitrage betting, but this is illegal and the casino might terminated your account or only let you to withdraw your initial bankroll.

If you bet in legal way, the difficulty to beat the sportsbook is depends on you, all of your analysis, speculation and decision will determine the result about how much you will earn. However focusing to beat a sportsbook isn't good because it means you're gamble for money.

[YOSHIE]

Hi guys,
I just want to start a discussion here regarding the topic how hard is it to beat sportsbook.

Betting in a sportsbook there are many choices and many strategies and ways you can do to beat the sportsbook bookie, all of this cannot be separated from the knowledge you have about the sportsbook so far.

There are many sportsbooks to open bets, such as: football, boxing, racing, basketball, baseball, golf, tennis and so on, it all doesn't escape the knowledge of the sportsbook that you have, understanding the sportsbook is very important in assessing success and beating the bookie.

There are some tricks and strategies about sportsbook betting, which you can do.
For example:
• Parlay: this bet people often call a single bet, for example: Odds: 2 x 1.5 x 3 = 9. One bet only.
• Odd Even.
• Handicap: it's common for the strongest team to bet.
• Over-under: this is a point/guess.
• 1×2: this is also common, the final count of the game.

My question is for you, how good are you at sportsbook tricks and strategies on Parlay up to 1 × 2, if you are skilled at one of the bets above, I'm sure it will be easy for you to beat the dealer, not difficult, the point is: understand sportsbook.

[tusandii]

I have recently started betting on sports, I won't be able to provide you with my overall experience as in I am still a newbie in betting. I started with esports betting and I till now have not felt that it is hard to decide which odd to choose. I agree that the odds are similar on every casino as they might be sourced from one bookmaker. If you are lucky you might get different odds but that is very rare. I have been betting with cryptocurrency and I have not faced the issues that you are quoting in the OP. It is certain that with rapid change happening in technology in these times, things are very different from what is was when you started betting. The only option left is to adapt and work according to it.     

Soon summer will start and all football leagues will start which you can use to bet because in a football match there are lots of betting options that can be your betting options.
Esport may also be quite interesting, but when you have tried betting on a football match and won, it can indirectly make you addicted to doing analysis in order to have betting predictions.

But if you really look at each casino, it will give different odds, even though it only has a small difference, but if the bet is a large number of bets, it can affect the amount of wins you get.

[bitbollo]

@OP
Like all industries, this one is also seeking to optimize processes and maximize their profits.
I fully understand and agree with your view (unfortunately)...

one option is offered by betting exchanges.
Ok if you win a lot you have a "premium fee" to pay but in general you have no limits on your account or bets to play. I usually never heard about problems with KYC.
However, the main site of this business does NOT offer crypto deposits...and some countries can't use these sites....

second option: play in physical bookmakers with cash! (obviously if we are talking about hundreds of dollars, higher figures are impractical in terms of personal safety / availability of the bookmaker).

[Slow death]

You probably didn't try your best to look for a bookmaker that is not a scam. Stake.com had been around for years. I'd be surprised if you hadn't heard of it.

What I'm not sure of is what you mean by beating a sportbook, they are pretty much rich and they limit how much you can bet if they are not able to pay you if you win. Thats sort of how it works and guarantees you may not be able to bankrupt them.

Stake.com is one of the worst out there. Using Celebs to promote themselves with huge sums while in real life you can't bet 500 usd on low level tennis. Their offer is sh1t and when they lock your account, it takes ages to answer or resolve issues.
For 99% of time their support doesn't provide answer but switch blame to another department etc..And to sue them, that's another pa1n in the ass..
Stake.com aims for gamblers who go in casino or ludomaniacs, not normal people as their offer is really poor.

I didn't know that and to be honest it's the first time I see someone saying that, I suppose you can prove what you're saying, in any case assuming that you were speaking the truth about this issue of limits of value that people can bet on a certain game of low level tennis leagues, I think that this is a rule that each casino has the right to place and before putting that rule they do market studies to see if they can or cannot place such a rule. about other accusations you made against stake.com if there were cases like the ones you are talking about

So why aren't we seeing many people talking about this on this forum? I believe that many people would be in this thread complaining about stake.com if they had problems, but what I see on the forum, I am talking about the scam section and the stake.com thread itself and that there are not many complaints, it even stays weeks for me see any complaints, then your case may be an isolated case. about your thread, I don't know how it was in your times when you managed to get better results, maybe if you could put in this thread the years when you had good results and which betting sites it would make the discussion easier

[DaNNy001]

The most easy way to beat a sportsbook is through arbitrage betting, but this is illegal and the casino might terminated your account or only let you to withdraw your initial bankroll.

If you bet in legal way, the difficulty to beat the sportsbook is depends on you, all of your analysis, speculation and decision will determine the result about how much you will earn. However focusing to beat a sportsbook isn't good because it means you're gamble for money.

Well who doesn't gamble for money, I like to believe everyone who actually gamble has an intention to actually win some cash with his or her prediction but the only problem with this is that we should just try and have fun when doing this. Placing a bet and actually getting the desired result in any sport book isnt an easy task even if all the necessary information about the selected team is known like their head to head, last five games and so on it all still depend on if you are lucky.

[QueenVera]

To the best of my ability,  I've always seen gambling especially sport betting as strictly a game of luck and I've always believed that it has been programmed for games to always have greater house edge over players.
This very option  and opinion of mine is backed by the fact that the casino  is in business and anyone in business is expected to be making profits and not losses and if people are winning on them, then they should  be considered lucky  and not skilled because it is luck based to me and not skills.
And with all this been said, I believe it is hard to beat a sport book expect there is a great strategy  already in ground.

[ChiBitCTy]

Lol, if you’re making a “really nice” living, then I’d say it’s probably not time for you to change professions.  Sports books haven’t become “soft”, that’s not the right word to use here at all, they’ve simply become more conservative having learned from their past mistakes.

It’s true some operate out of places like the British Virgin Islands that harbor criminals and criminal activity. This is why you simply don’t use them.

[alegotardo]

~snip~

I have tried everything in betting world and for the first time in over 15 years I believe that it's time to change profession. I am still making really nice figures but with way more effort and dificulties than before.
Reason for this post is that I want to hear experiences from other bettors and maybe we can help each other with advices

In fact, I see that betting sites are "regulating" to provide entertainment and not profit to players.
I've never played for money, and I know my story isn't what you want to hear.

However, it is necessary to verify that KYC is a requirement that is becoming global in any casino, forget the comparison with the past, this does not exist anymore and it is not the fault of the bookmakers.

Second, if you want to earn money not by luck but consistently then unfortunately you are in the wrong business for today, in fact you need to look for another way to guarantee your "keep".

Unfortunately the words are not easy, but in fact it is necessary to face that casino games are entertainment where you can or not win a lot of money by mixing your skills with luck.

[goinmerry]

As you claimed to be a sports bettor for 15 years I think you don't need any input as you should know what's the best thing to do.

If you think you can't handle anymore the changes you are referring to during the time you started from the current situation, then take a break. Why stress yourself for something that you don't want to do anymore or now become a lack of interest?

Supposedly, what else can we do about those changes you pointed out in the gambling industry nowadays?

We should be the ones to adjust rather than the gambling environment will adjust for us.

[btc_angela]

Lol, if you’re making a “really nice” living, then I’d say it’s probably not time for you to change professions.  Sports books haven’t become “soft”, that’s not the right word to use here at all, they’ve simply become more conservative having learned from their past mistakes.

I agree, they didn't become soft or what, they just become smart base on past history and what not. That's why the odds the book makers are putting are really on the edge and if you look at it, maybe you will feel that you are in a lose-lose situation, unless everything has change when you bet on the underdogs won.

It’s true some operate out of places like the British Virgin Islands that harbor criminals and criminal activity. This is why you simply don’t use them.

I'm not familiar with sports bookies that have license from British Virgin Islands, if this is what you meant. But if this is true then we should stay away from it.

[quanth1919]

Lol, if you’re making a “really nice” living, then I’d say it’s probably not time for you to change professions.  Sports books haven’t become “soft”, that’s not the right word to use here at all, they’ve simply become more conservative having learned from their past mistakes.

I agree, they didn't become soft or what, they just become smart base on past history and what not. That's why the odds the book makers are putting are really on the edge and if you look at it, maybe you will feel that you are in a lose-lose situation, unless everything has change when you bet on the underdogs won.

It’s true some operate out of places like the British Virgin Islands that harbor criminals and criminal activity. This is why you simply don’t use them.

I'm not familiar with sports bookies that have license from British Virgin Islands, if this is what you meant. But if this is true then we should stay away from it.

They are soft and that is a fact. Every bookie which has betmax for normal level around 200e is soft bookie as it has small limits.
You are making wrong assumptions.
I already bet in crypto bookies, i already have runners in different countries for local shops and I am doing ok,just wanted to ask fellow colleagues how they deal with all changes.
Taxes on betting are high as ever..in uk rly low stake possible on terminals..new york 50% winning tax etc..really hard industry with noone protecting the bettors.

Considering complaints on bookies and why you dont see it on forums its bcs you dont want to see.
Even on this forum you have posts about stake.com not paying out,let alone sbr forum or askgamblers.com...everyone tries to solve firstly normal way with chat and support,then over forums and last step is witj lawyers and lawsuit. In that moment its not even allowed to post anything on forums anymore..

[LUCKMCFLY]

As you claimed to be a sports bettor for 15 years I think you don't need any input as you should know what's the best thing to do.

If you think you can't handle anymore the changes you are referring to during the time you started from the current situation, then take a break. Why stress yourself for something that you don't want to do anymore or now become a lack of interest?

Supposedly, what else can we do about those changes you pointed out in the gambling industry nowadays?

We should be the ones to adjust rather than the gambling environment will adjust for us.

The truth is that I would like to have that kind of peace of mind because when we see if you win or have made a living from sports betting, it is not bad, because you have to have enough money, or at least enough to guarantee a good retirement to be calm and maybe think about taking a good Caribbean Vacation every year, however I think that a person who makes a living in gambling, specifically in sports betting, well, at some point when he leaves, he will want to start over, and that it's somewhat understandable. , after so many years of betting and living and feeling the degree of adrenaline is something that should not be missed.

So if I made a living betting on sports, I think I would never leave it, because I feel that then it would not be me, I can do many things that I like, but I would be incomplete, and the reason is simple, we as human beings should always do what we like the most, never to please others, but to feel happy ourselves.

In our society sometimes ourselves, I include myself because it has happened to me many times, one tries to stop doing some things that I like just to please others and to make it look good, and no, one should not stop doing what one likes, and as long as one is healthy doing what one likes, well, one must do it, and if we like to bet on sports betting, that does not hurt anyone, in short, I think that if it does harm it would be to lose and that is to oneself as a player, the others should not care about anything.