Could Bitcoin's Price dump to Halving?

[Compromise me]

Hi all community:
I think To analyze the long-term outlook of BTC this glassnode chart is quite interesting. We can observe whether Bitcoin price might experience a dump leading up to the halving event or not.


https://twitter.com/glassnode/status/1675842010261979137?t=SabfX80yr5HyODx0t1b9tw&s=19

In the last 600 days i think there has been a gain of 1.4 million Bitcoin among long term holders according to the graphic showing their position. The total supply of BTC in the market is 19 million some thing. The green highlights on the chart indicate that there are 14 million BTC held by long-term holders while 4 million BTC is though analyzed lost. Lost means that when these 4 million BTC were transferred to their respective wallets, they have remained untouched. So, there are 1 to 2 million BTC available for trading.

This is very positive news for long-term holders, and from this point of view it propose that Bitcoin prices should not be dumped until the next halving event. This is because miners receive mining rewards which creates selling pressure on the price of BTC in the market.

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[raidarksword]

I would not think it will dumped instead it will create a great FOMO towards future investors and it will surely have a good market feedback towards good price actions. Halving is the event that everyone looking forward which means it is an important part of crypto and bitcoin that will have a big effects the future of it.

[nelson4lov]

Looking at the outlook of the market and that glassnode chart shows one thing - that the worst for Bitcoin is behind us for now. In the long run as bitcoin mining rewards will significantly reduce as more halving events come and there would be fewer mining rewards to be sold. While these would have some effects I'm sure one of them would mean Bitcoin would remain bullish for the long term.

I would not think it will dumped instead it will create a great FOMO towards future investors and it will surely have a good market feedback towards good price actions. Halving is the event that everyone looking forward which means it is an important part of crypto and bitcoin that will have a big effects the future of it.

Mining rewards have always created strong selling pressure whenever miners make sales, it often leads to a drop in price but that might change in the future since those rewards will be significantly reduced. Most long term holders have always chose to hodl than sell.

[_act_]

This is very positive news for long-term holders, and from this point of view it propose that Bitcoin prices should not be dumped until the next halving event. This is because miners receive mining rewards which creates selling pressure on the price of BTC in the market.

You can not be able to accurately predict bitcoin price in short period of time and in the time that the prediction may not be accurate which are times like this. To know if bitcoin price will increase more and not go below $20000 again before halving will be hard to predict. Even going to $25000 still means dumping price and bear market. But it is good for anyone that buy bitcoin to never sell because the days of having is getting near and people will buy bitcoin and significant bull run will later begin.

[yudi09]

-snip-

This is very positive news for long-term holders, and from this point of view it propose that Bitcoin prices should not be dumped until the next halving event. This is because miners receive mining rewards which creates selling pressure on the price of BTC in the market.

The display of images made by PlanB on their Twitter account @100trillionUSD is also interesting to note because there are several assessment models raised such as assessments based on time, S2F-ratio, utxo, and difficulty.



We must believe that making analysis or making predictions on the price of Bitcoin is not easy and rarely hits the target, but reading and browsing news that describes positive things about Bitcoin will always be interesting because it can add to the feeling of optimism in holding before a new ATH is reached.

Currently we are still waiting for Bitcoin to reach a price increase to $35K and it's only a matter of time, ready to hold or not.

[Zaguru12]

I would not think it will dumped instead it will create a great FOMO towards future investors and it will surely have a good market feedback towards good price actions. Halving is the event that everyone looking forward which means it is an important part of crypto and bitcoin that will have a big effects the future of it.

Base on past history of bitcoin, the price is always at its low whenever the halving is approaching halving period. Many investors still believe it would happen, most are even predicting a price low close to $20k. Although I also have some belief that it could happen, the issue around ETF this days is actually shaping the market trend. If many institutions move in the same direction as BlackRock and other institutions then we might be in for the price range of $30k plus till next year.

Another concern would be government policies, should there be strict regulations against bitcoin or cryptocurrency in major countries in the upcoming days or a major collapse of any of the big exchanges then we might be faced with a dump. Because some investors will be forced to sell should any of the two above happens

[imamusma]

If you believe the price of bitcoin can move in all directions, then you shouldn't really agree that one past event will always be repeated in the future. Bitcoin could have gone lower before the halving, or it could have approached its past ATH value. Both of these are still possibilities, but nothing to worry about if you want to hold onto them long term.

If you pay attention to the price chart on the daily TF, then bitcoin price may look very close to undergoing correction lower than $29k, but anything to the contrary is possible. I was expecting bitcoin to be higher ahead of the halving instead of lower than $29k, but I'm not worried.

[ancafe]

Hi all community:
I think To analyze the long-term outlook of BTC this glassnode chart is quite interesting. We can observe whether Bitcoin price might experience a dump leading up to the halving event or not.

No one knows for sure what bitcoin's condition will be before reaching the halving for the future, but theoretically bitcoin's journey can be studied based on historical data and what I see the journey before reaching the halving must have decreased before reaching the peak of the halving.

In the last 600 days i think there has been a gain of 1.4 million Bitcoin among long term holders according to the graphic showing their position. The total supply of BTC in the market is 19 million some thing. The green highlights on the chart indicate that there are 14 million BTC held by long-term holders while 4 million BTC is though analyzed lost. Lost means that when these 4 million BTC were transferred to their respective wallets, they have remained untouched. So, there are 1 to 2 million BTC available for trading.

Realistically the journey of bitcoin has spawned a lot of understanding for people and we are also finding long term holding compatibility for bitcoin rather than being actively traded, so more bitcoins are sitting in holders' wallets than are currently active on trading exchanges. If I'm not mistaken in the past year there was a statistic that was shared that more bitcoins are stored than actively traded and even then if my memory serves me right, from many things that we have found and people have come to the conclusion that bitcoin is indeed more suitable to be held in the long term to make big profits. Another reason is that we don't need to pay attention and worry about how the market conditions are going at all times.

[KingsDen]

https://twitter.com/glassnode/status/1675842010261979137?t=SabfX80yr5HyODx0t1b9tw&s=19

It is fine to say that long term holders who bought from the circle of bitcoin that started from the 16k price are already bullish. The holders who bought at 50k during the last bull run will have to wait a little longer.
The market is fine in the bull direction and I think it will surely pull downwards for sometimes in order to gather the momentum to execute the halving expected bull run.

[coolcoinz]

We can observe whether Bitcoin price might experience a dump leading up to the halving event or not.

I don't see any signs of a coming dump and I also don't know any reasons for it.
There was actually a dump in 2020, but this was a black swan event due to covid and US closing its borders.

How do you understand a "dump" though? Is it a 10% correction? 20%? Some people see 5% and they go into panic mode.
10% would only be 3k down, so 27k bitcoin. Still bullish!

Bitcoin doesn't even react to the news as much as it used to, which is a sign of maturity and it doesn't follow stocks like it used to.

[Yaunfitda]

https://twitter.com/glassnode/status/1675842010261979137?t=SabfX80yr5HyODx0t1b9tw&s=19

It is fine to say that long term holders who bought from the circle of bitcoin that started from the 16k price are already bullish. The holders who bought at 50k during the last bull run will have to wait a little longer.
The market is fine in the bull direction and I think it will surely pull downwards for sometimes in order to gather the momentum to execute the halving expected bull run.

Possible that there could be dumps, but there should be reasons why investors and speculators are going to sell, it's not that they are going to sell everything just because they want to pull the price down.

There could be reasons behind, but if there is none then I don't see any incoming dumps. Investors are wise, they want the price to remain constant before the price halving as they are continuing to buy at every possible time.

[Mr.suevie]

This is very positive news for long-term holders, and from this point of view it propose that Bitcoin prices should not be dumped until the next halving event. This is because miners receive mining rewards which creates selling pressure on the price of BTC in the market.

You can not be able to accurately predict bitcoin price in short period of time and in the time that the prediction may not be accurate which are times like this. To know if bitcoin price will increase more and not go below $20000 again before halving will be hard to predict. Even going to $25000 still means dumping price and bear market. But it is good for anyone that buy bitcoin to never sell because the days of having is getting near and people will buy bitcoin and significant bull run will later begin.

The bull run is what everyone who has a couple of BTC stalk somewhere is waiting for but not to say am thinking negative or wanting the price to go down or something but its just that I can't but stop to think what if the whole speculation about the halving and the bull is all wrong this time around and the price actually falls back to 16k as of same price cap last year. A lot of people would actually lose faith on bitcoin but am certain that bitcoin isnt going to dip again although stability of price is what am expecting till the halving passes by.

[Baofeng]

Looking at the outlook of the market and that glassnode chart shows one thing - that the worst for Bitcoin is behind us for now. In the long run as bitcoin mining rewards will significantly reduce as more halving events come and there would be fewer mining rewards to be sold. While these would have some effects I'm sure one of them would mean Bitcoin would remain bullish for the long term.

I would not think it will dumped instead it will create a great FOMO towards future investors and it will surely have a good market feedback towards good price actions. Halving is the event that everyone looking forward which means it is an important part of crypto and bitcoin that will have a big effects the future of it.

Mining rewards have always created strong selling pressure whenever miners make sales, it often leads to a drop in price but that might change in the future since those rewards will be significantly reduced. Most long term holders have always chose to hodl than sell.

Yes, but we have to look at why the miners is selling, or why they are selling pressures on them, it's simply because it's business, so they need to sell at some point to keep their operations going. So for miners, there are always selling pressures so I'm not surprised by it.

The selling pressures could come from retail though, if they chooses to sell for whatever reasons, maybe they see the price going down hard, or there is a FUD then so be it. We can't control who is going to sell and who is going to have a diamond hand. But for long term holders, it doesn't matter though, we are looking for the long term so we won't be selling even at the height of the next bull run.

[Quidat]

I have this one


Basing up on the image then we are now on assuming on 532 days before halving.
Seeing the chart on which it do shows that we could still potentially be having those huge drops on which it
might happen as we do approach that halving events but now one really knows on what it would be or on what price
we are heading into. Its always been that unpredictable.

[taufik123]

-snip-
The selling pressures could come from retail though, if they chooses to sell for whatever reasons, maybe they see the price going down hard, or there is a FUD then so be it. We can't control who is going to sell and who is going to have a diamond hand. But for long term holders, it doesn't matter though, we are looking for the long term so we won't be selling even at the height of the next bull run.

No one can control, selling or buying is everyone's decision. This is also what makes the crypto market very volatile.
Those who sell at a loss will only waste their assets, but those who become diamond hands, they will survive until their target is reached.

But some whales also manipulate to get cheaper prices by spreading FUD to make the market crash.

As a long-term holder, FUD and such are just signals to buy back at a lower price.
But when you say don't sell at the top of a BullRun, you have to see at what price peak the target will be reached.

Remember that you don't have to hold for the rest of your life, when the Bullrun comes and the new ATH target is reached it is a good opportunity to sell, but if the desired ATH target has not been reached then it will be a long journey.

[buwaytress]

Another point to consider at this stage is that there are at least a couple more crypto options that long term holders will consider today as opposed to a halving ago.

Back then, Bitcoin was the only mature and stable option, battle tested, proven.

I still consider it the only true option of it's kind but others might view at least Ethereum as the other viable one, not least considering how it has kept up with Bitcoin (and often slightly outgrows during a rally).

Could be some converts over the last few years. Or at least those who transfer some liquidity over to the... Quicker/cheaper networks. That wouldn't be me, but I know a few who have. Even USDT users have chiefly migrated from Bitcoin based.

[armanda90]

Regarding last Bitcoin halving edition price drop drastically after halving time, still memorize when bitcoin success reach all time high price above $65k and right now still on lower price. Many investor not holding their bitcoin assets after halving time and most of them sell it near close with halving and correction will be true after halving. Its experienced last halving edition and I don't think accurate with next time halving in 2024, better not holding bitcoin fund after halving and sell it when get moment on higher price before buy back later after halving with lower price.

Inside with FUD possibility with bitcoin drop exactly after halving time any community publish with bad news, but its worth comparison with 290 days left before halving last edition and right now checking again has the same progress with bitcoin price?

[adaseb]

It will dump in about a month when the first Bitcoin etf rejection or approval will take place. Way too many people are confident that it will pass and get approved. So if it gets rejected like the 2017 Winklevoss etf there will be a huge dump.

Another issue is that it might not get approved or rejected but delayed like in the past. It’s very difficult to see what the SEC will do. They approved a leveraged 2x Bitcoin etf without issue but are very arrogant against approving an physical Bitcoin etf.

[BALIK]

Many people are confident and expect the closer the halving, the stronger the market will recover, and that is why most recent predictions are very optimistic that bitcoin will continue to rise until the end of the year. But I have the opposite view, and I am still waiting for a big dumping to happen for one last shopping before we welcome the halving. I still believe that history in 2020 will repeat itself, I mean, there will be dumping that will bring bitcoin down to $20k again.

[hatshepsut93]

This is very positive news for long-term holders, and from this point of view it propose that Bitcoin prices should not be dumped until the next halving event. This is because miners receive mining rewards which creates selling pressure on the price of BTC in the market.

I don't see were this conclusion comes from. The price is formed by supply and demand. If the demand will become extremely low, Bitcoin could be dumped by selling even a million BTC or less. And those long term holders will be holding empty bags. This is of course an extreme scenario that I brought up only for illustrative purposes.

But you should always remember about the demand, instead of looking only at supply. Supply is not known perfectly, because we don't know what Bitcoin holders plan to do, but at least we can get some info from on-chain activity. But demand is completely unknown to us.