Bitcoin implied volatility below 40 for the first time: Sign for a bull run?

[d5000]

Bitcoin's expected or implied volatility*, measured by the Bitvol index, is currently trending down and has already hit values it reached only once since 2019 (in January 2023). In the occasion earlier this year, a sub-50 value lasted only for a couple of days, while in June and July the values were most of the time around or below 50.



(Source of the chart)

Both times the BitVol has hit sub-50 values (since the BitVol exists), it predated a major bullish outbreak: In March 2019, the BitVol reached 44.84, and in the following months the price exploded from ~$4-5k up to 14k (US$). In January 2023 many will still remember that something similar happened: The BitVol low of 43,8 43,93 (sorry ) was reached in the first days of the year, and less than a week later the price moved steeply upwards from $17k up to $20-23k.

Do you think a similar bullish move might happen now again?

(There were also occasions with a relatively low (~55-60) BitVol value that lead to a price decrease, like in early 2022 just before the Terra/Luna crash. However, in no occasion since the BitVol existed, a crash happened after a value of less than 50.)


*Implied (expected) volatility as expressed by the BitVol (and fiat volatility indexes like the VIX) is a measure which is based on option prices. A low value indicates the market is expecting little price variation in the near future, making options in general cheaper, while a high value is reached often when the market fears an upcoming crash and options thus are expensive. The exact methodology of the BitVol can be seen here.

Edit: On July 28, value fell below 40, which is a new record low. Title changed accordingly.

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[adaseb]

Yes it’s a good indicator however the issues are that it can trade this way for many more weeks or months. Especially since we are in the summer months.

Last week we wrote the yearly hike for Bitcoin, we all assumed we would get to $35K or so and we are back in the range. This chop is going to destroy many short term traders.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

what I saw in the first place is that the chart is flattening and subsequent spikes are getting smaller, which is natural with a maturing asset. In my opinion, levels around ~30 may be the norm in 5-10 years. It is a pity that the chart starts from 2019 and not, for example, in 2014, so that we can observe the trend I described in a longer perspective. So 50 in 2023 could be equivalent to 70 in 2019 if you compare the volatility we see versus the volatility the market is capable of generating.

Interesting conclusions could be observed if someone superimposed the graphs on themselves. This and bitcoin. I don't know how to do it myself.

[Oshosondy]

Do you think a similar bullish move might happen now again?

According to what I analysed, any major price increase this time above $37000 may lead to bitcoin getting to over $50000. I do not think people are bullish enough to get bitcoin price to reach $37000 which some people thought may be a price that the next bear market may occur before halving. As to what I am seeing now, $31000 I has been a big barrier as $30000 has been a strong support. But if bitcoin continue not to rise but less volatile as it is now, the bears might eventually win.

[Poker Player]

Do you think a similar bullish move might happen now again?

It is what we are all waiting for. Not only because of the indicator but also for other reasons, such as there is less than a year left for halving. The problem with indicators is that they serve as a guide but do not guarantee anything, although at this point we can say that the most likely scenario is a price increase.

Yes it’s a good indicator however the issues are that it can trade this way for many more weeks or months.

That's another one, we can't be sure when it will start.

[darkangel11]

It's normal when bitcoin reaches the mid range between bull and bear run and a point of equilibrium between buyers and sellers.
People who hold bitcoin don't want to sell it because they know halving is near and there's enough bullish news (ETFs) to not be worried about near future of bitcoin.
Those who don't have it aren't buying yet because they now price is at a pivot point (50 week MA) and they want to see a strong breakout above that.

We've been experiencing the same price action in 2019 and 2020 around 9k. Smart bitcoiners were buying at 6k and below while the street woke up after 20k.
The hordes of zombies are always late for the party.

[Heisenberg_Hunter]

Blackrock's ETF filing has sparked interest from institutional investments in large scale, but the SEC's stance tends to exercise a minor pause towards the resumed interest. As of yesterday, SEC has accepted the application and the official review process has begun thereby signaling either a positive or negative outcome in this filing. Since this is a long process, a positive outcome from SEC might push Bitcoin towards the official start of the bull run right before or after the halving. But, to the contrary if SEC has a negative stance (which is most likely possible), we might see a minor pullback during the halving and gradually the price may pick up the pace due to the increase in demand.

Volatility may also be considered as a governing phenomenon in this case, but a huge positive news is mandatory for us to break and move beyond the bear market. At this moment, it is increasingly difficult to trade in short term as we may never be able to time the market perfectly since the prices can go either ways. OTOH, Bitcoin is becoming a matured asset and it's volatility is going down gradually which can be seen as a positive factor for large institutions to step into the game.

Additionally, according to S2F model the price of Bitcoin may be able to reach a presumed target of $40k-$50k by the 2024 halving which is neither too high from the current $30k price which denotes a lower volatility as well. Considering these factors, a bullish move is much very possible before the halving but if unavoidable factors such as SEC going against exchanges or Blackrock tends to come into play, we may see a minor drop before the bull.

[d5000]

Yes it’s a good indicator however the issues are that it can trade this way for many more weeks or months.

At least since 2019 it seems that the BitVol never stayed that low for a long time. It did stay in the 55-60 range for some weeks however in some occasions. Unfortunately the index isn't calculated for the years before 2019, and I think options weren't that common in these years. What we have is historic volatility data (not implied, but "real" volatility):



Source

If we compare that with the BitVol, there are similarities but also some differences (the spikes in 2019 and 2020 are much higher in historic volatility than in implied volatility). The longest low-volatility phases according to this chart were in late 2012 and late 2016. In these occasions, they were also predating bull runs.

Last week we wrote the yearly hike for Bitcoin, we all assumed we would get to $35K or so and we are back in the range. This chop is going to destroy many short term traders.

At least another "higher high" was recorded, which is in general a bullish sign too.

@Heisenberg_Hunter: It looks like you're right, that we need an external "push" by some positive news to finally leave the 30-31k range. If BTC continues to trade in this range however for some weeks more, then two things could happen (taking into account historical sideways markets): Confidence in the price could build up, we would see perhaps even lower (record-low? I think the lowest value was ~43 and we're at ~46) BitVol numbers, and then even a minor buy could trigger to break out of the current range. Or the contrary: traders get disappointed and sell their long positions slowly, and then some short sell attack could be successful to dump again to ~27-28k.

For me, the first scenario is more likely, mostly because of the BitVol showing increasing confidence (lower option prices), but also by chart patterns like the very slowly increasing highs and the strong support near $30k. And of course the SEC decisions are quite important too and there is this time a higher probability of a positive outcome there.

[Eternad]

what I saw in the first place is that the chart is flattening and subsequent spikes are getting smaller, which is natural with a maturing asset. In my opinion, levels around ~30 may be the norm in 5-10 years.

Not flattening but rather decreasing of volatility slowly on a longer time frame. Time frame is just the difference but the pattern of decreasing volatility is the same on different time when bullrun occur.

It is a pity that the chart starts from 2019 and not, for example, in 2014, so that we can observe the trend I described in a longer perspective. So 50 in 2023 could be equivalent to 70 in 2019 if you compare the volatility we see versus the volatility the market is capable of generating.

Yeah, Having this kind of more data will give as a better sample to determine the pattern in long term. But since 2014 Bitcoin volume on exchange is damn small, I think the volatility that time will be off the chart and will messed when add to the current data. I remember Bitcoin price back then change more than 100% in a short period of time.

[hatshepsut93]

Both times the BitVol has hit sub-50 values (since the BitVol exists), it predated a major bullish outbreak: In March 2019, the BitVol reached 44.84, and in the following months the price exploded from ~$4-5k up to 14k (US$). In January 2023 many will still remember that something similar happened: The BitVol low of 43,8 was reached in the first days of the year, and less than a week later the price moved steeply upwards from $17k up to $20-23k.

Is there anything fundamentally important about going below 50, as opposed to slightly above 50 values? Because on this chart there's a lot of times when the index was close to 50, and it didn't result in bull markets.

Volatility is periodic, but just like with the price, there's no clear patterns that could allow predicting the next movements with high confidence.

Also, this chart clearly shows the effects of halvening and its bull market. The whole period of 2020-2021 - the time of bull market, had high volatility, because there was a lot of price movements, both upwards and downwards. And the bear market had periods of stagnation, just like the previous bear markets.

So if the price and volatility will increase in the near future, it wouldn't be because the value dropped below 50, but because the halvening is coming soon.

[goaldigger]

Do you think a similar bullish move might happen now again?

According to what I analysed, any major price increase this time above $37000 may lead to bitcoin getting to over $50000. I do not think people are bullish enough to get bitcoin price to reach $37000 which some people thought may be a price that the next bear market may occur before halving. As to what I am seeing now, $31000 I has been a big barrier as $30000 has been a strong support. But if bitcoin continue not to rise but less volatile as it is now, the bears might eventually win.

Bullish trend will always be the effect of a good demand for the specific project and with Bitcoin price is not the usual basis but its volume. As we can see right now we are slowly getting there and volume to challenge the resistance level is getting stronger. Volatility is always with Bitcoin and yes if we are going above $37k then we might see the $50k level as well. The price movement is getting more bullish, its an indication of an upcoming bull market.

[d5000]

Is there anything fundamentally important about going below 50, as opposed to slightly above 50 values?

I don't believe of course that it's a rule written in stone. However, the correlation seems very strong (see below). My explanation is this: Option prices reflect the amount of fear in the market (because you will probably buy options if you want to either protect yourself from a fall or to be able to buy for a good price but aren't sure if it doesn't go lower). If option prices are low, that means that there's not much panic to be able to be triggered, the market participant are relaxed and aren't staring at the chart all the time for a possible crash. This makes it difficult for bears to penetrate a support, and easy for confidence to build up. So basically the "rule" could be: the lower the lows in the implied volatility, the higher the probability of a substantial price increase.

Volatility is periodic, but just like with the price, there's no clear patterns that could allow predicting the next movements with high confidence.

Let's examine the BitVol and the price evolution in a single image:



(sorry for the weird look of the price chart, had to stretch it because the BitVol image has an "irregular" x-axis).

We see that while there were some instances where a "mid-level" volatility of 70-100 led to a decrease in price, there were only two instances where a value about or lower than 60-70 led to a crash or substantial price decrease: the first in early 2022, i.e. before the Terra/Luna debacle. One could argue that Terra/Luna was an anomaly: there was a lot of confidence before that price could recover, but an "external" event, a large sale of BTC by the Terra/Luna project and big turbulences in the altcoin market led to the crash, and then the late-2022 period before the FTX crash (the sideways market around 2022), which had also low-mid BitVol values, but again we have a strong external event triggering the crash here. All other instances of low BitVol values led to price increases.

Macro-trends like those reacting bullish to halvings (in my opinion caused mostly by price increase expectations and not by the slightly decreased supply, as I'm not a fan of the S2F theory) have of course also influence on confidence, and thus on option prices. Thus, the low volatility is not necessarily "causing" a price increase, but it's a "byproduct" of the increasing confidence due to other factors.

[Captain Corporate]

I wouldn't know if this would be a good way to start or a bad way to start a bull run, but it is certainly "something" to see. When something rarely happens, that doesn't mean that something major will happen, but usually it means that something rare already happened. I assume that volatility could be lacking due to the fact that we have been stuck around 30k dollars price range for a long time now and I am seriously expecting it to not change any moment soon. This is why its going to be a bit different, we need to make sure that everything will be fine and nothing goes wild. Of course its going to be hard to just sit tight and wait for the price to be steady forever, but eventually it will move, so just be patient for now.

[buwaytress]

Might not be such a fresh indicator for some, but certainly at the back of my head I've always had it in my gut that when it's been majority sideways for a really long time, it's the calm before a storm. Now, whether that means volatility following a bull or a bear, never been able to tell.

It's the age old conundrum. Low volatility suggests consolidation for a show of strength. But is it for the bull or bear? I doubt there's strong evidence to point to either side, and even the chart seems 50/50 in either direction, correlating low volatility, and spikes, with price direction.

[coolcoinz]

At least since 2019 it seems that the BitVol never stayed that low for a long time.

It can be explain, at least partially.
First of all, there's 2 indicators that are peaking, while the BitVol is reaching all time lows. These two indicators are the number of addresses containing over 1 bitcoin.



Why is this important? Because it shows distribution. Not all of the addresses are new users, but it's very likely that the number of individuals holding a positive balance has never been this high. The more users - the less volatility.

The other important factor is the amount of bitcoin held in self-custody. FTX probably worked wonders in this matter, showing millions of people how dangerous holding money on exchanges can be.
People who hodl are less prone to panic moves and don't get easily mislead by FUD and mainstream press.

[GeorgeJohn]

Bitcoin's expected or implied volatility*, measured by the Bitvol index, is currently trending down and has already hit values it reached only once since 2019 (in January 2023). In the occasion earlier this year, a sub-50 value lasted only for a couple of days, while in June and July the values were most of the time around or below 50.

Do you know that Bitcoin price unexpectedly as i portrayed in my previous comment in another thread, provided that what triggers the increment of bitcoins price, that's to say bitcoin price is is depending on the volume of the market, and mostly when the demand is high, it's very clear that the demand helps to skyrocket the price, so comparing yearly prices of Bitcoin is dependable on the yearly demands which i believe that the demand of Bitcoin can be higher now due to it have lesser supply and lesser negative information or speculation that can make the market crash. I want to remind you that what makes Bitcoin price in 2017 to increase in value is as results of more investors come in into the industry and any year such happen bitcoin price get elevated, so Bitcoin price alway fluctuate in market.

[d5000]

First of all, there's 2 indicators that are peaking, while the BitVol is reaching all time lows. These two indicators are the number of addresses containing over 1 bitcoin [and] the amount of bitcoin held in self-custody.
People who hodl are less prone to panic moves and don't get easily mislead by FUD and mainstream press.

Interesting theory. I agree that the evolution of these two indicators can partly explain the volatility decrease: the long-term decrease (which we can also see in the "historic" volatility chart) is very likely related to a better distribution (alongside with increased liquidity), while the self-custody increase (and thus: "more time until you can press the sell button") could explain a further lowering since 2022, i.e. a mid-term effect. Maybe even the Ordinals/BRC-20 chain congestion could explain volatility decrease a bit, because it made transfers to exchanges (or using instant exchanges) more expensive (this effect is currently waning a bit).

These factors very likely also contribute to the current low values. However, I think there is something more: volatility in early 2023 was still significantly higher than now. This can be partly related to the price evolution: when the price jumps upwards, volatility grows naturally, not only due to the price jump itself but also due to short-term downtrends resulting of profit taking. It seems however the current 29.5k-31.5k corridor is extremely stable and already is almost a month old. The small 1% dip below 30k today was one of the most significant ones, and recovered fastly. There seems to be enough confidence to "eat" all attacks on the 30k level, so while I can imagine a dip as low as 28k if all bears unite force, it could lead to a short squeeze afterwards, boosting the price finally to 32k.

[flyingcarpet]

Do you think a similar bullish move might happen now again?

Of course I do, because we have no data other than such indicators. But time has taught me this. No indicator tells us exactly what will happen in the market.

There is no single situation or person in the market. Many uncertain events prevent the things we predicted to happen as a result of the data we review. Since we have seen such things before and our forecasts do not hold, I examine the indicators, but I do not invest according to them.

[justdimin]

Might not be such a fresh indicator for some, but certainly at the back of my head I've always had it in my gut that when it's been majority sideways for a really long time, it's the calm before a storm. Now, whether that means volatility following a bull or a bear, never been able to tell.

It's the age old conundrum. Low volatility suggests consolidation for a show of strength. But is it for the bull or bear? I doubt there's strong evidence to point to either side, and even the chart seems 50/50 in either direction, correlating low volatility, and spikes, with price direction.

I seriously do not know if it's for a bull or bear, I can't guarantee anything at all. However, if we put what we have in front of us, we can easily say that it's not going to be that much of a hard time deciding what's going to be the case. Like we have halving next season, been up a lot this year, and we are getting end of the year for our Q4 period as well.

When you combine all these, you know that in the crypto world all these matters, and that shows that maybe an increase is quite likely and could happen. That is why it's going to be very important and we could make some difference without a doubt. I just hope that it doesn't get to a point where things go "too" wild because in that case everyone will be in panic mode for sure.

[savetheFORUM]

Do you think a similar bullish move might happen now again?

According to what I analysed, any major price increase this time above $37000 may lead to bitcoin getting to over $50000. I do not think people are bullish enough to get bitcoin price to reach $37000 which some people thought may be a price that the next bear market may occur before halving. As to what I am seeing now, $31000 I has been a big barrier as $30000 has been a strong support. But if bitcoin continue not to rise but less volatile as it is now, the bears might eventually win.

We believe that a major increase will continue, hitting the areas that we never saw after a long time. I remember there were lots of people saying that once we broke the $31k barrier, we will then see $35k or more but it seems blurry since we are only getting stuck at $31k and we even fell under it sometimes. This again proves that BTC is totally unpredictable and there are no patterns that we can follow strictly.

We are almost out of the bear market. I think what you mean is once we hit $37k, a bull run will then be officially started which I can agree since its kinda high. Maybe when the price is already high enough, $37k will only be our lowest if in case a bear market happens.