We all know that halving is near and, on every bitcoin move, you will say people saying that this is a bull season start time. They will link every bitcoin pump, dump or no volatility to the sign of the start of the bull season.
If we see the past data, we will see that there is a major bitcoin crash very near to halving, last time it was a covid crash. I am not saying that we will see another major crash before the start of the bull season, but we still cannot say that the bull market is officially started.
In my opinion, we have slowly to say goodbye to the halving incited cycles. IMO the bull run in 2019 was already a sign that halvings now don't matter anymore. But just the Covid crash you mentioned, clearly an external factor - the fears started already in January 2020, which had flattened the recovery after a bearish short-term trend in late '19 - may have prevented BTC from reaching an ATH before the halving in this occasion. It was very close: in 2019, almost 15000 were reached on some exchanges, and the ATH was lower than 20000.
I however agree with you that there's no need to become delusional just at every slight sign for a possible bullish move. However, the volatility data is at least ... very interesting
![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif)
(It's also a good long-term sign, we're clearly trending towards stabler prices again, which may be good for further adoption, after the 2022 volatility spikes.)
Seeing the price action, bitcoin needs a weekly confirmation over 32K and then we may say that we are in a proper bull trend.
I agree about the 32K as a major milestone, although I'm not a fan of weekly charts in a 24h/7d asset like BTC
![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif)
I'd change it to: "5 days above 32K and we're a step further" in the bull market.
Bitcoin has essentially been flat for the past 4 months (of course with some volatility in there from $25k-$31k during that period, but overall flat), so eventually yeah it'll break out, and probably fairly soon. I would guess it'll break out of this ~$30,000 range by end of August, maybe getting up to $35k in September. I'm expecting to see $40k get hit before the end of the year.
I could agree with that, but I think once we're past 35K volatility may go up again - to the bullish side. So if we see 35K in September, I believe we'll see at least 50 K (even if it's only a short spike) before the end of the year. 35K, or any value significantly over 32K, would break all MAs and EMAs to the upside, so the impression of the general public will be that Bitcoin left the problems of 2022 (FTX, Terra/Luna) behind and the community is optimistic again.