The Big Decentralized Alts (DOGE, LTC and XMR) - Speculation

[d5000]

This thread is dedicated to the price evolution of the three biggest realmente decentralized altcoins without any premine: Dogecoin (DOGE), Litecoin (LTC), and Monero (XMR).

They have in common that no (substantial) premine was created at the start, and that they have independent blockchains with independent genesis blocks (in contrast to forkcoins like BCH). Thus, I think it makes sense to group them together. They're all part of the Top 30 altcoins in lists like Coingecko or Coinmarketcap, and the next coins with these characteristics (not premined, no fork) are only close to position 100.

How did the price of these coins in the last weeks? Let's recap.

Dogecoin (launched in 2014) is the most well known memecoin. It's known as a very volatile coin, very prone to react to tweets of Elon Musk, but in 2023, its price has almost not changed: on January 1 and July 16 the price hovered around 7 cents. In-between, there were several spikes, the biggest probably in April when it almost reached 10 cents. But in general we can see that Doge failed to join Bitcoin in its initial bullish steps after the late-2022 dump. I'm a bit less bullish about Doge than about the other two coins of the group, because it lacks a bit of a long term use case. It may be however a good risky investment: if it's really integrated into Twitter then it could jump up quickly again.

Litecoin (launched in 2011) is "silver to BTC's gold". It has got privacy features last year with MWEB, although these are optional. It's used quite a lot as a transactional/payment coin and has also its own NFT system based on Ordinals. Its price evolved positively in 2023: from 70 $ on January 1 to 94 $ on July 16, with a spike up to $115 in early July. The recent volatility may be caused by speculation on the aftermath of the next halving which will probably take place on August 2. My personal opinion on LTC is positive, I believe for the amount of activity it registers (about half as many transactions as Bitcoin per month) it is undervalued, and it may preserve its position of a major decentralized coin in Bitcoin's tradition with a strong blockchain and high security.

Monero (launched in 2014) is probably the most well known privacy coin and employs a ring signature system to achieve fungibility. Its price evolution was slightly bullish in 2023, having traded at 147 $ at January 1 and at 165 $ in the last 24 hours. This doesn't look very impressive, but Monero has managed to keep its price close to 0.005 BTC since 2020, with some spikes in the middle, the last of them having occurred in late January. I think it's difficult another coin can challenge this position as this moment; its major contender Dash has probably weaker privacy and has also lost ground in the last years, and other competitors like Grin or Zcash are even less well known. So basically I expect Monero to follow Bitcoin's steps in terms of price: bullish when the BTC and general crypto market is bullish, and bearish when Bitcoin loses value.

As centralized coins have lost a bit of market cap in the last months, all three coins were able to at least preserve their market cap rank, with LTC and XMR having improved a bit.

Do you agree or disagree with these opinions? Do you have a favourite of these three coins? All opinions are welcome

[1714646186]

1714646186

[disconnectme]

All these 3 Altcoins you mentioned are OG coins and they all have niche that they served in the space. Doge is the most successful Meme coins in the space and being championed by Elon Musk, Litecoin is what Silver is to Bitcoin and as long as there is demand for Bitcoin, Litecoin will continue to shine, Monero is an OG privacy coin and the one that truly stands out from other Privacy coins being a true  and complete dark transaction. Anyone that do not wants to take huge risk can buy into this 3 coins they will surely come good

[adaseb]

The issue with DOGE is that there are just way too many bag holders who listened to Musk. Remember how he was pumping Doge while doing that SNL kit. Many entered long at the $0.70 area or so hoping for $1. And then they kept averaging down most likely.

Another issue is the massive miner supply. There is still a huge amount of DOGE released daily that its capping the max price of Doge. Its not possible for it to sustain $1 or $5 long term due to massive miner dumping Doge as soon as their blocks mature.

Might have a temp pump to maybe $0.15 or $0.20 but I dont see it going much higher, even with Musk.

[tokeweed]

I still have my XMR bag from back in the day and pretty sure I have some DOGE somewhere that I took for granted and left them in different wallets but couldn't find the seeds.  Lol.  Not really sure but could be worth over a thousand bucks at the current price ranges.  :/  I mean, who knew it could go over a penny.

As for LTC, held some before but never really cared about it.  Didn't buy the silver to BTC's gold argument.  I thought and still think it's dumb.

[GreatArkansas]

Dogecoin (launched in 2014) is the most well known memecoin. It's known as a very volatile coin, very prone to react to tweets of Elon Musk, but in 2023, its price has almost not changed: on January 1 and July 16 the price hovered around 7 cents. In-between, there were several spikes, the biggest probably in April when it almost reached 10 cents. But in general we can see that Doge failed to join Bitcoin in its initial bullish steps after the late-2022 dump. I'm a bit less bullish about Doge than about the other two coins of the group, because it lacks a bit of a long term use case. It may be however a good risky investment: if it's really integrated into Twitter then it could jump up quickly again.

Among the list, I am more surprised and excited about Dogecoin.
We all know Dogecoin is always making its own run on every bull run. So for me, I am really expecting dogecoin will stay the same as Bitcoin.
Even though there are already a lot of meme coins out there, Dogecoin is still the number 1 meme coin by market cap.

Another thing to compare is to check the chart of DOGEBTC because if you notice, on every bull run, we also see dogecoin follow Bitcoin's price.
So for me, Dogecoin is also a big alternative to Bitcoin if they are looking good ROI on every bull run.

[rhomelmabini]

I just sold my Dogecoin just recently tbh but it was meant for some other coins that may have use case. People love memes and we can't deny that fact that they love risky assets too so Dogecoin will probably the top chosen coin to get to, it's listed almost where Bitcoin is listed same to Litecoin. The halving for Litecoin might be a chance to make new highs but I wonder if Bitcoin will not be a killjoy for that as I'm speculating it may drop from its current valuation.

[goaldigger]

Have to hold more LTC because I believe on this coin and the halving is about to happen, it will surely affect its value and its good if you are able to accumulate this at a cheaper price. I’m not a fan of Dogecoin though since this is a memecoin and I don’t follow the hype because its too risky for me. XMR still running well today as one of the best decentralized altcoins, this could be one of the best project to invest with, just know when to buy and hold.

[SquirrelJulietGarden]

The issue with DOGE is that there are just way too many bag holders who listened to Musk. Remember how he was pumping Doge while doing that SNL kit. Many entered long at the $0.70 area or so hoping for $1. And then they kept averaging down most likely.

Another issue is the massive miner supply. There is still a huge amount of DOGE released daily that its capping the max price of Doge. Its not possible for it to sustain $1 or $5 long term due to massive miner dumping Doge as soon as their blocks mature.

Might have a temp pump to maybe $0.15 or $0.20 but I dont see it going much higher, even with Musk.

You are right that people were very FOMO in 2020 and 2021 to buy Dogecoin about $0.7 because they believed that Musk will do something really big for Dogecoin. Their experience in the last two years would be painful if they did not cut loss soon enough. I am doubtful that they did cut loss with Dogecoin and most of them will hold Dogecoin, stacked more coins all the down of price in a long bear market.

I agree with you that Dogecoin has very strong resistance and selling pressure will be very huge which will need very big demand, buy up, forced liquidation to break $0.7 all time high. It will be impossible in 2023 but in next two years, with a bull run it will be more possible. I am more keen on forced liquidations will help Dogecoin to break $0.7 cap.

[libert19]

I love doge just because it doesn't have any use lol, that aside, due to it's 1 doge transfer fees I use it as middle ground on instant exchanges. I think ltc also has low fee but doge gets confirmed faster on local exchange I transfer to. Doge memes counts a little as well.

I would possibly never go further than using them for quick transfers (doge, ltc.. have never used xmr).

[Nonstopspider]

DOGE is practically the money of the people, or how actually the Paper money works. If the people accept is going to worth. In terms of decentralization I go with BTC and one not so known token that some people might find risky $ARRR from Pirate Chain

[d5000]

The issue with DOGE is that there are just way too many bag holders who listened to Musk.

This is indeed also the problem I have with DOGE. It's too dependant on Musk's tweets/actions. My stance for now is, as I don't believe it will really get major adoption inside the Twitter universe: Let it sleep a bit, once people forgot about Musk it may become again a good investment option. (And the project should really think about updating its code to a "modern" codebase with Segwit/Taproot.)

Another issue is the massive miner supply. There is still a huge amount of DOGE released daily that its capping the max price of Doge. Its not possible for it to sustain $1 or $5 long term due to massive miner dumping Doge as soon as their blocks mature.

I believe this is actually a good thing, there's a "roof" created by the miners which decreases volatility at least a little bit. Not good for traders and bagholders, but better for the long-term viability. The issue with $1 or $5 is that this "looks" like it was still a low price, but it would be an enormous increase  (a ~x15 to ~x75) from the current value. Its large supply distorts expectations a bit, as people have a tendency to associate the value with its price per unit (coin) and not so much with market cap. So I think unfortunately it won't go to such a market cap value sustainably, taking into account the current state of the project (old codebase, Musk bagholders ..)

As for LTC, held some before but never really cared about it.  Didn't buy the silver to BTC's gold argument.  I thought and still think it's dumb.

I think the "silver to BTC's gold" argument could make sense if LTC continues to experiment with features which are too controversial to add to BTC, like it did with MWEB. Maybe there's a possibility something like Simplicity could added to LTC (a language supporting more expressive smart contracts); that's a feature I'm pretty eager about for BTC but it may make sense to add it first to LTC. Basically, "silver to BTC's gold" would then mean: a bit more experimental and volatile and thus less valuable, but nevertheless a solid asset/currency.

[el kaka22]

Litecoin was actually launched in 2011 if I am not wrong and it is one of the best alts out there because it is doing what it suppose to do and it is literally the lite version of bitcoin, it is not one people should ignore. It is also highly ranked as well and that means it is going to be around for a very long time.

Even after over a decade it can be staying this powerful which shows that no matter how many other coins with some new technological advancements happened in the crypto world, specially in blockchain world, we need to remember that it is going to be not that hard to stop this, and we need to make sure it happens a lot better. This is why it is quite important and needs to be reconsidered as a good thing for the time being.

[samcrypto]

I love doge just because it doesn't have any use lol, that aside, due to it's 1 doge transfer fees I use it as middle ground on instant exchanges. I think ltc also has low fee but doge gets confirmed faster on local exchange I transfer to. Doge memes counts a little as well.

I would possibly never go further than using them for quick transfers (doge, ltc.. have never used xmr).

That's the only good about that meme token, DOGE is a good alternative and pretty stable right now.
I don't know if XMR still doing great when it comes to being anonymous but I think this is also a sleeping giant. No doubt with LTC as well, its already a proven coin and I'm sure its value will start to rise as well as halving is near, expect holders to hold more LTC this year.

[FanEagle]

Having these type of trust in decentralization is great but I feel like people do not have the same feeling towards this as one might think. I know that it is going to take a while before people could see it change anytime soon, but I also think that the best thing to do regarding this situation is that we should not be considering it as "that" important.

Not saying that decentralization is unimportant, just saying that investing into something just because it has decentralization doesn't mean anything. Sure it brings in some feature that is a positive, but that's about it, we are not going to see anything bigger or more major during that time at all, we are going to need a lot more for a project to keep on succeeding for longer.

[d5000]

Litecoin was actually launched in 2011

You're correct, corrected

Even after over a decade it can be staying this powerful which shows that no matter how many other coins with some new technological advancements happened in the crypto world, specially in blockchain world, we need to remember that it is going to be not that hard to stop this, and we need to make sure it happens a lot better. This is why it is quite important and needs to be reconsidered as a good thing for the time being.

I don't understand what you mean here, can you explain? Do you mean that Litecoin has to continually improve because otherwise it's likely it will fail? (In this case I agree somewhat.)

Having these type of trust in decentralization is great but I feel like people do not have the same feeling towards this as one might think.

Of course, there are lots of people who don't care and buy everything even if it's highly centralized. But these aren't the intended public of this thread

I know that it is going to take a while before people could see it change anytime soon, but I also think that the best thing to do regarding this situation is that we should not be considering it as "that" important.

Strongly disagree. Let's have a simple example:

A car's unique selling proposition is to bring you faster from point A to B than on foot. If a car is as slow as going on foot, what's the point in buying one?

Cryptocurrencies were developed because they allow decentralized monetary systems, and decentralization is their USP. Why should I buy a cryptocurrency if it's as centralized as PayPal is?

(Of course this is an oversimplification. But even if you can "stake" a centralized cryptocurrency and thus "participate" - PayPal-like services could also offer you interest and the outcome would be almost the same one.)

Not saying that decentralization is unimportant, just saying that investing into something just because it has decentralization doesn't mean anything. Sure it brings in some feature that is a positive, but that's about it, we are not going to see anything bigger or more major during that time at all, we are going to need a lot more for a project to keep on succeeding for longer.

I agree with you that decentralization alone is not enough to be successful as a cryptocurrency. But if decentralization is absent, then the strongest advantage of cryptocurrencies is simply not present. There are other advantages of cryptos, for example the ease to launch tokens on an established crypto platform without having to think about server security. I'm actually strongly supporting things like utility tokens. But the platform's decentralization continues to be the strongest USP for me. For example, what if a centralized project just gets bankrupt like Terra/Luna? That wouldn't happen to a decentralized currency.

[d5000]

The Litecoin halving, probably on August 2, is an event some are likely looking at to trade. Either because they think the price will rise due to the decreased supply, or because they expect volatility near the date.

I am generally a Litecoin supporter, and I also own a few, because I think it's currently the strongest and most solid decentralized alt-chain. However, I don't really have big expectations regarding this halving, so what I write here may not be what some may expect

Generally, Litecoin seems to react only in a weak fashion to halvings. Let's look at the LTC/BTC price over the years (LTC/BTC instead of LTC/USD, so the data isn't "contamined" by BTC price volatility):


Source: Yahoo Finance
The red dots are approximately the halving dates.

- In 2015, there was a big jump in price in the first half of the year: LTC/BTC went from 0.006 up to 0.018 - a x3! But after having reached this high in late June, it went all downhill. The halving was in August, and is barely (or not at all) visible in price.
- In 2019, LTC pumped hard again in the first months, this time from 0.008 BTC to 0.019. But again: The peak was well before the halving, at the end of March, and then LTC/BTC entered a bear market which lasted until 2022!

The absolute ATH of LTC/BTC wasn't in any way related to any halving: it occurred in early 2018, when it went to 0.023 BTC.

I have to admit that I've used Litecoin as an example to counter the Stock to flow theory (I don't think that this theory works, even if it may have some correlation to BTC price between 2012 and 2018 or so).

This does not mean that I'm bearish about LTC. LTC has recovered from the 2022 low pretty well and is looking good for the rest of the year in my opinion. But I don't think the halving has any importance for its success. This may be caused by the fact that miners are only a small part of sellers already, so demand plays a much bigger role than supply - just like it occurred to BTC.

[yhiaali3]

Yes, for me I prefer Dogecoin (DOGE), Litecoin (LTC).
Although DOGE's performance has not been good in the recent period, I am optimistic about it in the future.
LTC's performance has been good over the past period, and I expect it to grow significantly in the near future.

[adaseb]

Currently lite coin is not going anywhere. The way I see it is as follows. If we get a big pump a few days before. Then right after the halving there will be a big dump most likely.

Don’t think the lower supply will really affect the market price since it’s not as large cap as Bitcoin or Ethereum. I just think this is a pure buy the rumor and sell the news type of event.

[bittraffic]

LTC as far as I know is dominated by Chinese. There were discussions about these before China ban crypto but Bob Lee already influenced a lot of Chinese holding LTC.

Doge is decentralized if it weren't for Elon trolling about it all the time.  He could be holding more than 30% of its supply and XMR imight just be the only decentralized but I think majority of its holder are from dark web.

If I have to chose, I be going for Doge at least this one, I can still bag thousands.

[d5000]

@adaseb: Im gemeral I agree with your post, with the exception of this sentence:

Don’t think the lower supply will really affect the market price since it’s not as large cap as Bitcoin or Ethereum.

I think it's actually the other way around. The higher the market cap and above all the trading volume, the lower the incidence of halvings, because miners' importance as sellers shrinks if these indicators go up. (There's one exception: the first halving of a coin pumped to a high market cap).

Actually I believe the only halving which had incidence in BTC due to the reduced supply was the 2012 halving. Its consequence was that home mining became increasingly unprofitable, and thus people had to buy coins. In later halvings, miners were a seller group increasingly shrinking in importance, and it was already an "buy the rumors sell the news" event, like in 2016 when there was a pre-halving pump and a later dump. The 2017 and 2021 bull runs in my opinions had completely different triggers, they were demand driven; halving could have helped still in 2017 but not by much.

LTC is, if I'm not wrong, in terms of miner importance as sellers, already past Bitcoin in 2012. I believe thus that the supply reduction won't have incidence on price, maybe the halving can help a little bit due to the psychological boost. But as I wrote before, looking at LTC's history, its price is driven by other factors.

In contrast, in the case of a low cap coin where miners are the primary seller group, however, a halving can reduce the seller side supply significantly and thus push the price - but only if demand is constant or rising. Low cap coins normally are very volatile, so that depending on market direction, halving sometimes doesn't even help against a general dump.

@bittraffic: Why the nationality of the LTC holders is important for you?