[2023-07-24] Market Insider: Bitcoin could soar to $180,000 before...

[pawel7777]

Yesterday's press hit from the Market Insider, with a bold prediction of BTC hitting $140k-$180k range at the next cycle's peak.
#IwantToBelieve

Bitcoin could soar to $180,000 before the April 2024 halving as potential BlackRock ETF helps drive demand, Fundstrat says

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-price-outlook-blackrock-etf-filing-demand-180000-crypto-halving-2023-7

The price of bitcoin could soar 521% from current levels to $180,000 before the cryptocurrency's scheduled halving in April 2024, according to a Monday note from Fundstrat.

The investment research firm said that while bitcoin's daily demand of about $25 million is equivalent to daily mining rewards of about $25 million, that could change with the potential launch of a bitcoin ETF.

A bitcoin ETF could add an extra $100 million in incremental daily demand for bitcoin, according to the note. That increase, combined with the April 2024 halving set to slash daily mining rewards to $12 million, means the price of bitcoin would have to rise substantially to meet an equilibrium among buyers and sellers.

"This [bitcoin ETF launch] would bring daily demand to $125 million, while daily supply is only $25 million. The implied equilibrium price would need to rise so daily supply matches daily demand. Equilibrium analysis suggests that a clearing price is $140,000 to $180,000, before the April 2024 halvening," Fundstrat said.

Many bitcoiners are hoping for much more than that, but I'd be content if we hit the $100k mark.

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[cr1776]

"could" etc.  Plenty of hedge words.  They always build in wiggle room because they don't know.  No one does.  Just people who have been watching for a long time know that the trend has been up and with the halving coming if previous years have been any indication, more upside seems likely.  It really just depends on whether enough people are paying attention and getting sick of inflation eating away the value of their fiat. 

It amazes me that places like Argentina don't have a huge presence in bitcoin. It isn't as if bitcoin's value as an inflation hedge is hidden.

[Fiatless]

Yesterday's press hit from the Market Insider, with a bold prediction of BTC hitting $140k-$180k range at the next cycle's peak.
#IwantToBelieve

There are high expectations from the bitcoin community. And some major banks are also coming up with some positive predictions that are encouraging.

Standard Chartered Bank ----- $120,000 by the end of 2024

Berenberg-------------------------------$56,630 by April 2024.

Standard Chartered’s prediction came through its top financial analyst Geoff Kendrick and it is based on next year's having. I think Bitcoin going higher than $100k next year will not be because of just one factor like the approval of BlackRock and other firms' spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). Other positive market forces will have to contribute to the massive price rise. Anyway, next year is less than seven months from now, and my expectation is high.

[Woodie]

Market insider, interesting!

But what I don't get is that year in year out someone is always having these Market predictions of what Bitcoin is likely to do and forget that these markets wont stimulate  themselves without the actual buying of some crypto coins!

Perhaps these predictions we keep reading about are meant  to hype the coin to encourage potential investors to buy, otherwise its the same old story of high price predictions...but it would be nice to see BTC register a new ATH and its definitely on the cards!

[stompix]

Lol

In a note to clients earlier this month, Fundstrat's head of digital asset strategy, Sean Farrell, explained that a multiplier effect in the range of 4.0x to 5.0x is reasonable to assume for the bitcoin network.
"This means that $1 of demand can result in a $4 to $5 increase in market cap," Farrell said.

hmmm...

Bitcoin to Reach $200,000 and Ethereum $12,000 in 2022, Predicts Top Research Fir
https://watcher.guru/news/bitcoin-to-reach-200000-and-ethereum-to-12000-in-2022-predicts-top-research-firm

Market research firm Fsinsight, a Fundstrat company has predicted a bull run for Bitcoin and Ethereum in 2022. Fsinsight predicts that Bitcoin will spike up to $200,000 and Ethereum will skyrocket to $12,000. The research company claims the bull run will start after the second half of 2022.
~
“This is much different from 2018 where tech stocks were still doing well. But Bitcoin sold off along with the rest of the crypto market cap,” said Farrell to Fortune. Last year, venture capitalists invested $30 billion into the market, which eventually boosted the prices significantly. He predicted a similar feat will be repeated again this year triggering off a phenomenal bull run.

These analysts are really trying to prove that a broken clock is never right!

[NotATether]

Nope that is not happening without extreme buying which only happens during a supercycle where most media outlet is covering the skyrocketing price of cryptocurrencies, thus inciting people to buy more.

ETFs aren't going to bring it anywhere close to that level by themselves - that's what people thought would happen last time (institutions adoption bitcoin) but in reality it was only a couple of custodians creating these services for other people to use that (among other things) drove traders to make extreme purchases and make a short price spike last time around.

[cr1776]

Nope that is not happening without extreme buying which only happens during a supercycle where most media outlet is covering the skyrocketing price of cryptocurrencies, thus inciting people to buy more.

ETFs aren't going to bring it anywhere close to that level by themselves - that's what people thought would happen last time (institutions adoption bitcoin) but in reality it was only a couple of custodians creating these services for other people to use that (among other things) drove traders to make extreme purchases and make a short price spike last time around.

I disagree a little.  :-) 

The halving will probably be a big deal as it has been other years.  It isn't solely about demand, but supply too.  As the supply of coins that are on the market decreases (people are buying to hold, not trade), let alone the decrease in new coins available (the halving), if demand remains constant let alone has any increase, the price increases.  Prices are set at the margin so even an ETF that is only slightly successful will increase the price with less supply on the market and higher demand.   

[pawel7777]

It amazes me that places like Argentina don't have a huge presence in bitcoin. It isn't as if bitcoin's value as an inflation hedge is hidden.

Don't they though? A quick google search suggests Argentina has one of the highest crypto adoption rates, which would make sense considering they had some restrictions on foreign exchanges.

ETFs aren't going to bring it anywhere close to that level by themselves - that's what people thought would happen last time (institutions adoption bitcoin) but in reality it was only a couple of custodians creating these services for other people to use that (among other things) drove traders to make extreme purchases and make a short price spike last time around.

Do you think giants like BlackRock would even bother to file for spot ETF if they didn't know there is a demand for it? I don't expect fireworks but it will have a positive effect on the price, it might be spread over a longer period of time though. And it's not like the price would be bumped by the ETF alone. The current demand is still there, so it's just adding a "little bit" extra on the top. And coupled with reduced supply from the miners after the halving - that's a strong case for a bull market.

[aoluain]

Nope that is not happening without extreme buying which only happens during a supercycle where most media outlet is covering the skyrocketing price of cryptocurrencies, thus inciting people to buy more.

ETFs aren't going to bring it anywhere close to that level by themselves - that's what people thought would happen last time (institutions adoption bitcoin) but in reality it was only a couple of custodians creating these services for other people to use that (among other things) drove traders to make extreme purchases and make a short price spike last time around.

I disagree a little.  :-)  

The halving will probably be a big deal as it has been other years.  It isn't solely about demand, but supply too.  As the supply of coins that are on the market decreases (people are buying to hold, not trade), let alone the decrease in new coins available (the halving), if demand remains constant let alone has any increase, the price increases.  Prices are set at the margin so even an ETF that is only slightly successful will increase the price with less supply on the market and higher demand.  

And just to add a little spice to this, Blackrock - the highest profile ETC applicant is the
worlds largest investment company.

BlackRock is the world's largest asset manager, with US$8.59 trillion in assets under
management as of December 31, 2022.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/BlackRock#:~:text=In%202021%2C%20BlackRock%20managed%20over,nominal%20%2425.347%20trillion%20in%202022).

Thats a lot of people with a lot of investing in all sorts of assets, adding a Bitcoin ETF
is guaranteed to increase the demand from people who dont know anything about it,
how it works and how to store it, they will know its benefits and where it is going
in the future and they are going to want their favourite and trusted asset managers to
sort it for them.

That coupled with the halving could be "a perfect storm" - there is that word again
"could"

[cr1776]

It amazes me that places like Argentina don't have a huge presence in bitcoin. It isn't as if bitcoin's value as an inflation hedge is hidden.

Don't they though? A quick google search suggests Argentina has one of the highest crypto adoption rates, which would make sense considering they had some restrictions on foreign exchanges.

They may have a one of the highest adoption rates, but I was thinking it would be a lot more.  Both as a percentage of assets and numbers of people doing it.  I can see that they'll buy hard goods with paychecks as soon as possible, but one would think the same for bitcoin.  And I'm sure a lot of people do, but I just thought it would be higher. :-)

Of course maybe a lot of people don't have enough free cash to do so which is certainly a possibility.

[Carlton Banks]

It amazes me that places like Argentina don't have a huge presence in bitcoin. It isn't as if bitcoin's value as an inflation hedge is hidden.

maybe it's bigger than the available evidence tells us. Breaking argentine capital controls is probably only overlooked for small fish and well-connected fish, yet with a country that has a long term/endemic regime of  capital controls, all sorts of people are looking to break those rules somehow. Bitcoin (and other cryptocurrencies) are no doubt the most accessible tools to do so

but maybe the problems doing that in argentina are very specific; the Turkish seem to be engaging in cryptocurrency trading completely openly (tourist-area foreign exchanges have huge Bitcoin and Tether logos on the street), and their hyper-inflation is not as acute as in argentina, and only began relatively recently