A technical view of Bitcoin's Current Market Situation and what to anticipate.

[Franctoshi]

 

The Level at which the price of Bitcoin is resisted @$31k is, technically, generally the critical and very decisive one for the entire cryptocurrency market.
Based on the current Market structure, this pattern shown in the picture below is an inverse Head & Shoulder formation drawn from the weekly timeframe.

An H&S pattern from the technical analysis perspective typically is a reversal pattern and inverse H&S is a bullish signal if found at the bottom of an extended trend, Which structurally suggests a possible endpoint to a trend if occurred in the major time-frames such as monthly, Weekly, and daily.


The reversal of such a pattern is usually back to somewhere close to the beginning of the trend, which should be around ATH 69k.

From my analysis and the overall picture of the market,
1. Bitcoin needs to break above $31k to correct this impulse and to complete the H&S pattern.

2. if failed it may result in the Double top formation known as the M pattern whose target is $25k, $23k, and $20k.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

Based on the SS you shared, you are using tranding view, but to show us patterns on chart you used barsh tool in paint?

1- The M patter you are talking about already fulfilled its target. We already tested below 20k levels. Unless you are talking about different M pattern you did not show it to us on chart.
2- I don't know where is your inverse Head & Shoulder on weekly. Next time show us on chart what you are talking about for example using this tool on trandingview:

[thecodebear]

It'll probably just spend a few more weeks bouncing around on either side of $30k, and then break out to like $33k-$35k late August or September.

[Poker Player]

The reversal of such a pattern is usually back to somewhere close to the beginning of the trend, which should be around ATH 69k.

In what time frame is that supposed to happen? I wouldn't expect it for at least a year from now, but with Bitcoin I wouldn't be too surprised if it ends up happening sooner either.

[EarnOnVictor]

I must say I agree with your scope here but with a few alterations as your view shows more of a trader that has been following the market closely. At the moment, Bitcoin is trying to find a path, and the situation right now is a battle between the chart representation and the news interpretation, which might make it difficult to accurately predict the market on the short-term disposition.

Still, a breach of $32K is needed to conclude a bullish continuation even as it must be ready to battle $31.450K resistance first. It is after this we can be talking about $35K and 37K which is the peak I believe it could ever reach in 2023. On the downside, I remain bearish if it's below 29.4K, but $25K might be the lowest level it would attain until this year is over.

However, a sustainable breach back above 29.4K will merely slip it back into a sideways market of between $31.450K-29.4K until either of the mentioned levels is breached.

[Dave1]

It'll probably just spend a few more weeks bouncing around on either side of $30k, and then break out to like $33k-$35k late August or September.

We will see, I also have the feeling that we will get into or break $30k again. That is the biggest barrier so far, however, we have breach it already and pushing as high as $31k, just not enough momentum.

And what the OP is pointing out is what we have seen been playing, although I would extend the support line at $28k. Which we eventually reach but then we have a quick bounce back to highs of $29k.

[Franctoshi]

It'll probably just spend a few more weeks bouncing around on either side of $30k, and then break out to like $33k-$35k late August or September.

The fact that we got a bullish candle closure yesterday on the daily timeframe is a good indication that we will likely be breaking out in the coming days and weeks, the only thing we need is volume confirmation, which shows that buyers are stepping in to control the market once again

In what time frame is that supposed to happen? I wouldn't expect it for at least a year from now, but with Bitcoin I wouldn't be too surprised if it ends up happening sooner either.

This analysis is based on the weekly chart.

[OgNasty]

It'll probably just spend a few more weeks bouncing around on either side of $30k, and then break out to like $33k-$35k late August or September.

We will see, I also have the feeling that we will get into or break $30k again. That is the biggest barrier so far, however, we have breach it already and pushing as high as $31k, just not enough momentum.

And what the OP is pointing out is what we have seen been playing, although I would extend the support line at $28k. Which we eventually reach but then we have a quick bounce back to highs of $29k.

I am also in the wishful thinking camp. It always gets a little scary at the bottom of the trading range though. The market has sure felt like it’s been drifting lower lately and during a time when funds and microstrategy have been aggressively buying. I think that shows signs that the retail investor is starting to be effected by the economy’s slowdown.

[imamusma]

Bitcoin has broken the $30k resistance today, but it seems traders are still having a hard time holding the price area around it. The market is still too easy to lose thousands of dollars in value in a few hours, even when bitcoin is in high demand. Of course I don't know who kept pushing the price down instead of waiting for it to go higher, but I don't expect any major manipulation at this time.

I currently have no plans to find a solution in anticipation of the short term, but I think it is my anticipation in the long term. The bitcoin price still allows me to accumulate, and it's a great option for preparing a portfolio ahead of the 2024 halving.

[Mahanton]

Bitcoin has broken the $30k resistance today, but it seems traders are still having a hard time holding the price area around it. The market is still too easy to lose thousands of dollars in value in a few hours, even when bitcoin is in high demand. Of course I don't know who kept pushing the price down instead of waiting for it to go higher, but I don't expect any major manipulation at this time.

I currently have no plans to find a solution in anticipation of the short term, but I think it is my anticipation in the long term. The bitcoin price still allows me to accumulate, and it's a great option for preparing a portfolio ahead of the 2024 halving.

It wanst able to hit up 30k but actually a few bucks more to be able to touch up that 30k resistance but the price had again able to fail out on breaking this point but rather its been rejected which we had able to go down on
$29k on which its never been that something that new because rejections could really happen on these kind of times on which for those who do able to sell out on 30k did make out some profits.Rinse and repeat but of course it wont really be that simple because no one would be ever know if the price would go even down on 28k on which means that you would really be hesitating on doing so. If you do make out some spot trade then it wont really be that an issue but if you are making out some futures position then it would really matter on which you would be mindful about on your entry and exits of course. This is why technical analysis wont really be that precise most of the time but this had been mostly the tool on which people would really be using because not all the time this market does have some news or fundamentals on which you could be able to check on.
This is why decision making would really be crucial and risks taking would really be that relevant on these kind of times.

[flyingcarpet]

2. if failed it may result in the Double top formation known as the M pattern whose target is $25k, $23k, and $20k.

I don't think Bitcoin will go down to the prices you say. Bitcoin seems to be working hard to go above the 30k level. I think it will continue at these levels for a while.

Bitcoin has long been giving the opportunity to buy. I don't know if the scenario on the chart will come true, but if it does, it could be a better buying opportunity.

With short-term investments, there are too many surprises and that stresses us out. For long-term Bitcoin investors, these prices are still a buying opportunity.

[Franctoshi]

Based on the SS you shared, you are using tranding view, but to show us patterns on chart you used barsh tool in paint?

1- The M patter you are talking about already fulfilled its target. We already tested below 20k levels. Unless you are talking about different M pattern you did not show it to us on the chart.
2- I don't know where is your inverse Head & Shoulder on weekly. Next time show us on the chart what you are talking about for example using this tool on trading view:

@Tytanowy I believe that this photo below with a detailed illustration has answered your question about the H&S formation on the chart.
The "M" pattern which I'm talking about is about to form and not yet formed, and its formation will be base on if Bitcoin failed to break above $31k current resistance.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

@Tytanowy I believe that this photo below with a detailed illustration has answered your question about the H&S formation on the chart.
The "M" pattern which I'm talking about is about to form and not yet formed, and its formation will be base on if Bitcoin failed to break above $31k current resistance.

Thank you for the screen. Now we are definitely on the same page without any doubt. As for the M pattern, I think it's way too early to mention it at all. Technical analysis is not about guessing the next pattern that would look the best in this place, but about finding completed patterns and playing targets that result from patterns.

As for the H&S pattern, you can actually say that it is in the game, although it's not the most beautiful pattern I've ever seen.

The reversal of such a pattern is usually back to somewhere close to the beginning of the trend, which should be around ATH 69k.

"The target of an inverse head and shoulders pattern is calculated by measuring the distance between the head and the neckline and then adding it to the neckline breakout point."
https://www.wallstreetmojo.com/inverse-head-and-shoulders/
"A suitable profit target can be ascertained by measuring the distance between the bottom of the head and the pattern's neckline and using that same distance to project how far the price may move in the direction of the breakout."
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/inverseheadandshoulders.asp

So the target is around 34k not 69k and considering that we were already around 32k and that we are in a bear market during which traders often take profits earlier (below the target), it can be said that the target has already been met or at least there is not much fuel left from this pattern.

[ancafe]

From my analysis and the overall picture of the market,
1. Bitcoin needs to break above $31k to correct this impulse and to complete the H&S pattern.

It depends how the halving process will occur and I can't be sure what level of accuracy it will take? the current trend has yet to break through resistance to hit the price beyond $31k and I assume it will be close to the $33k support first. If you mean complete H&S pattern and the price has tended to hold below $30k-$29k in recent weeks after a correction process caused by some previous events.

2. if failed it may result in the Double top formation known as the M pattern whose target is $25k, $23k, and $20k.

This already happened when binance was sued by the SEC and I don't know for sure what other sentiments will occur in the next few months. An H&S pattern will usually show three positions and the middle position will be larger and slightly defensive with the other two positions. Hopefully it may not be up to $20k going forward nor is there a guaranteed return, just trying to stay calm and take advantage of the accumulated buy-in adjustments.

[Franctoshi]

"The target of an inverse head and shoulders pattern is calculated by measuring the distance between the head and the neckline and then adding it to the neckline breakout point."
https://www.wallstreetmojo.com/inverse-head-and-shoulders/
"A suitable profit target can be ascertained by measuring the distance between the bottom of the head and the pattern's neckline and using that same distance to project how far the price may move in the direction of the breakout."
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/inverseheadandshoulders.asp

So the target is around 34k not 69k and considering that we were already around 32k and that we are in a bear market during which traders often take profits earlier (below the target), it can be said that the target has already been met or at least there is not much fuel left from this pattern.

Yes, I agree with you that usually, the target is when measuring from the head to the neck, but for me, that is the first leg target when you measure from the head to the neck because that is not the starting point of the trend, whereas the second leg target is towards the beginning of the trend.

Remember that this is a reversal pattern and this pattern is formed to take the price /market back to its starting point. This pattern is not a scenario that I'm expecting to complete anytime soon, rather it is a futuristic trend that will last for months on my watch list.


Still, when there is a strong bullish or bearing momentum in the market, we do experience a situation where we would get an extended M/W and H&S formation, and the trend goes way above or below the target and this scenario may play out because many people will get more interested in Bitcoin when the price smashes pass $31k-$35k price level.


 

[justdimin]

From my analysis and the overall picture of the market,
1. Bitcoin needs to break above $31k to correct this impulse and to complete the H&S pattern.

It depends how the halving process will occur and I can't be sure what level of accuracy it will take? the current trend has yet to break through resistance to hit the price beyond $31k and I assume it will be close to the $33k support first. If you mean complete H&S pattern and the price has tended to hold below $30k-$29k in recent weeks after a correction process caused by some previous events.

I believe that when the halving comes the price will not be anywhere near this level so it doesn't matter for the current situation, price will be near 40k levels when the halving comes, that's what historically looking realistic for the time being.

I do not think that it will go down that hard, even with Binance SEC news when it dropped lower, it didn't dropped to 20k, and we are doing fine right now, even a bad news can't really take us down to 20k, maybe 25k at the lowest point but that is about it, we are going to stay above 25k. And I would like to say one more very controversial thing and that would be we will NEVER go under 25k again, that was it, we are going to never see below that in the future ever again.

[ancafe]

From my analysis and the overall picture of the market,
1. Bitcoin needs to break above $31k to correct this impulse and to complete the H&S pattern.

It depends how the halving process will occur and I can't be sure what level of accuracy it will take? the current trend has yet to break through resistance to hit the price beyond $31k and I assume it will be close to the $33k support first. If you mean complete H&S pattern and the price has tended to hold below $30k-$29k in recent weeks after a correction process caused by some previous events.

I believe that when the halving comes the price will not be anywhere near this level so it doesn't matter for the current situation, price will be near 40k levels when the halving comes, that's what historically looking realistic for the time being.

I do not think that it will go down that hard, even with Binance SEC news when it dropped lower, it didn't dropped to 20k, and we are doing fine right now, even a bad news can't really take us down to 20k, maybe 25k at the lowest point but that is about it, we are going to stay above 25k. And I would like to say one more very controversial thing and that would be we will NEVER go under 25k again, that was it, we are going to never see below that in the future ever again.

The point we can take away from the process that occurred when Binance was sued by the SEC is that bitcoin has gotten stronger and even though the correction has occurred it has only been short term and people don't panic like they used to when an event that brought bitcoin a severe correction. I also share the view that when the first half happens bitcoin will be close to the 40k level and realistically it will happen even if it's not totally guaranteed. Speculation is only a matter of prediction and of course it can't always be right or right, that's the condition of market travel that we may often encounter.

Anyone might not expect to go below 20k again, but who knows? So take advantage of all the possibilities that occur and what we have to do is how to collect as many bitcoins as possible for investment assets. However ATH will be in the middle of the road going forward and that is where we will collect profits from the investment process that we are undergoing.

[Franctoshi]

I believe that when the halving comes the price will not be anywhere near this level so it doesn't matter for the current situation, price will be near 40k levels when the halving comes, that's what historically looking realistic for the time being.

I do not think that it will go down that hard, even with Binance SEC news when it dropped lower, it didn't dropped to 20k, and we are doing fine right now, even a bad news can't really take us down to 20k, maybe 25k at the lowest point but that is about it, we are going to stay above 25k. And I would like to say one more very controversial thing and that would be we will NEVER go under 25k again, that was it, we are going to never see below that in the future ever again.

The Analysis is based on two ways scenario and the $25k-$20k I talked about It is a scenario that can play out too if Bitcoin fails to break above $31k as the market is generally unpredictable, today based on the current market price reaction, it seems Bitcoin is starting to choose the upward direction if the momentum seen today continues.

[taufik123]

The Analysis is based on two ways scenario and the $25k-$20k I talked about It is a scenario that can play out too if Bitcoin fails to break above $31k as the market is generally unpredictable, today based on the current market price reaction, it seems Bitcoin is starting to choose the upward direction if the momentum seen today continues.

The $30k-$31k resistance seems to be the determinant of where Bitcoin will go.
If it still fails to break it, then there will be some corrections to be made again.

The $25-$20k support is strongest in that price area, we all hope that it will continue to be a support that remains strong so that recovery above the $30k price is faster.

But look at the current trend, August-September is the most bearish month of the last few years, and if it repeats then we need to hold on tight and prepare a reserve fund to buyback.

[justdimin]

I must say I agree with your scope here but with a few alterations as your view shows more of a trader that has been following the market closely. At the moment, Bitcoin is trying to find a path, and the situation right now is a battle between the chart representation and the news interpretation, which might make it difficult to accurately predict the market on the short-term disposition.

Still, a breach of $32K is needed to conclude a bullish continuation even as it must be ready to battle $31.450K resistance first. It is after this we can be talking about $35K and 37K which is the peak I believe it could ever reach in 2023. On the downside, I remain bearish if it's below 29.4K, but $25K might be the lowest level it would attain until this year is over.

However, a sustainable breach back above 29.4K will merely slip it back into a sideways market of between $31.450K-29.4K until either of the mentioned levels is breached.

The chart one will always end up winning in the end and the news one can only handle the short term. What I mean by that is that if chart is saying that it will go up, then it will go up, even if on the middle somewhere there is a bad news and it goes down, it will keep going back up again later on. That's just how it has been forever and will stay that way forever as well.

I understand that some people may not like this situation and that's understandable but that doesn't mean that we have to live through this period like that. I think it's quite important that we live through the situation a lot better and easier based on the chart because that way we know that even if we have to hold a little longer sometimes, we will eventually profit.