BTC Sentiment Poll for August

[hyudien]

The Bitcoin cycle never changes, it is always the same and if we look at the Bitcoin chart from the beginning to today based on this picture, there are clearly 3 notes that we need to pay attention to:
1. Green Arrow = Up
2. Red Arrow = Down
3. Blue arrow = Sideways

This is just based on my simple understanding, don't swallow it whole. You can conclude the answer yourself and look again at the pictures and arrow symbols that I have made. Determining investment or trading is the responsibility of each and for Bitcoin I still believe in the cycle.

[1714763049]

1714763049

[1714763049]

1714763049

[1714763049]

1714763049

[1714763049]

1714763049

[1714763049]

1714763049

[1714763049]

1714763049

[tokeweed]

-snip-
I chose "no", that's because I think new investors will take advantage of this momentum to invest. Some long time investors will also accumulate, but I don't expect bullishness to happen in August.

The month of August - September last year became a monthly decline in bitcoin, if this cycle continues to work then the beginning of August will be the beginning of the decline until September.

We can see now that Bitcoin is still holding in the $29k price area and it is difficult to break $30k.
If this continues and the support is not strong enough, we will see one more drop.

We need to be prepared for anything that happens, and prepare a reserve of money to buy back in.

Take a look at this Bitcoin Monthly Return 2023 Table, all the downs and ups each month have been recorded and it's just a matter of seeing what the market conditions are.


Source: https://bitcoinmonthlyreturn.com/

Yup I based July's sentiment poll on something like that table.  But it didn't work out well because July was expected to be a green month.  Lol.  I think the voters were primed to be more bullish because of it too.

But yeah...  Maybe August will end up being a good month since July went down and had a bit of a break after having a good month the month before.  Dunno...  As usual, stay safe out there guys.

[Questat]

Yes, we ended last month not pretty good but it was still a good price for me. But talking and predicting what will happen this month of August, I was positive that it never goes back down below $28k instead, I was optimistic to see it moving $30k plus. Why? I believe the demand increases before halving and that is what I expect in a few days from now. I'd see more support coming from new investors. Of course, I don't think it go straight but certainly, we still witness the up and down of market prices.

[eightdots]

Just like what we have predicted on this thread is happening: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5460216.msg62567787#msg62567787

I still remain bearish. But anything can happen, this is just a prediction. If bitcoin price plummet, $25000/$26000 would be a strong support.

If Bitcoin drops to these prices, I think the expectation will be met and then it will rise. Otherwise, it gets stuck in the current price range. In order to rise, you must first fall. 25-26k is a good level for Bitcoin price.

I voted yes. The market has a bearish expectation and the price won't get where it wants to go without it. If such a decline occurs, we may see a better price increase in the next rise.

I think the market should not rush. We are only in August. I think the price will drop a little more this month and then rise in the following months. The reason for this is that the expectation of 25 thousand is widely spoken in the market.

[uswa56]

Yes, we ended last month not pretty good but it was still a good price for me. But talking and predicting what will happen this month of August, I was positive that it never goes back down below $28k instead, I was optimistic to see it moving $30k plus. Why? I believe the demand increases before halving and that is what I expect in a few days from now. I'd see more support coming from new investors. Of course, I don't think it go straight but certainly, we still witness the up and down of market prices.

Yes it is very possible and I also see movement from the beginning of the year and I think it is still quite positive despite what happened from August last year but I am optimistic that Bitcoin price will remain around 30k in this August and it is very likely that will increase (albeit slowly and slightly)
I think so after seeing and feeling what has happened throughout this year, many of us have seen a positive trend and most likely it will continue.

[Odohu]

It is a no for me because Bitcoin have taken enough liquidity around $24,700 region. What we are seeing is a build-up of momentum to test the $36k region. A little fundamental now is enough to propel this move.  

Anyone expecting BTC to drop to $24k again might either miss the coming bull runs or enter at a very high price.

[sana54210]

As I see it, the cycle-wise years that would correspond to this 2023 are negative return in August. So it happened in 2019, 2015 and 2011. Although history need not repeat itself, this makes me more pessimistic than I would have been at first, before seeing the table. And September has not historically been very good in this respect either. Hopefully the statistic will be broken this year.

The return for 2015 was around 48% and the same at 2019 was around 91% for example, which means that the direction was same but the amount was super different. If we look at just August we can see that one of them was 19% down and the other was less than 5% down.

So, we could easily say that direction may or may not be the same but that should be not an important difference. I think August could be a down month, but I am not expecting it to be too much down. I think somewhere around 27k levels would be realistic. It could also be an up one and make a difference, it could be different, but the reality is that I think the next two months will not be amazing for us. However, I think we will slowly start to go up after that and keep going up for a very long time, like for 2 years in a row.

[taufik123]

Interesting table. As I see it, the cycle-wise years that would correspond to this 2023 are negative return in August. So it happened in 2019, 2015 and 2011. Although history need not repeat itself, this makes me more pessimistic than I would have been at first, before seeing the table. And September has not historically been very good in this respect either. Hopefully the statistic will be broken this year.

That's just a statistic and the repetition of the same market will not always happen.
That's just as a reference that in the same month the market experienced several declines and increases.

September seems to be quite a scary month because for 6 years there has always been a long decline, of course we have to be prepared for it.
Make sure your reserve funds are enough to buy below.

But if things go the other way and not like last year's chart, then this will be a significant change for the crypto market.
We all hope for the best, ups and downs are the nature of crypto.

[STT]

I like when people look out to the monthly, gains losses and movements because thats probably far more important and easier to discern a trend in.   Us scrabbling about during a week trying to decide the direction is quickly looking like nonsense as BTC price action runs rings around us.
  Monthly bars is going to take alot more time and patience to quietly assess its progress, tortoise and the hare fable perhaps   slow progress wins out.  2023 has been a positive year so far but it sure doesn't feel much like it, we're climbing a hill and its a hot day the struggle is real
   The one point I was going to make is that the monthly bar view would fit against something equally gigantic and lumbering like the US dollar index which in some way describes alot of the worlds currency flows because of the global reserve system and each major central bank holding some reserves of the others etc.
   Convoluted as that Forex idea might be I would hope its quite simply observed in that we did fail to break the 100 mark recently to the downside, this would have been a big deal; inversely 100 and lower DXY relates to the recent peak BTC pricing I think.   So in simplest terms do we now have to test the upper boundary or range to DXY and see reaction there.   Lets hope DXY finds a ceiling well below 105 and this then marks off August as either a positive month or a turn around for BTC Pricing in 2023.  I do also think Autumn brings storms and harsher moves.

[sunsilk]

While it's nice to check out monthly progress for Bitcoin. Usually with these sentiments, it's just getting harder based on the news that circulates around. We get some good and decent bad ones.

While the entirety until the bull run comes, I'm all bullish on it. But for this month, it seems that we're going to be sluggish as what the majority in the market seems sluggish as well including Bitcoin.

Anyone expecting BTC to drop to $24k again might either miss the coming bull runs or enter at a very high price.

Well, they can always buy in the middle range during the bull run.

[yudi09]

As always here's the monthly chart and how July ended.  Not what I expected but it is what it is.  Stay safe out there guys.

This time I predict the price will move sideways and tend to go down which indicates that moving up will experience difficulties because price support during July was not that strong. Yesterday the price increased almost past the $29.87k price and lasted only a short time then came back down.

Whatever will happen in August, we can still bear with what will happen because this is only a cycle even though the monthly return table displayed by taufik123 can be an assumption for August the price will stay in the red.

[Yamane_Keto]

Source: https://bitcoinmonthlyreturn.com/

Historical data tells us that August and September are not good months. In most years, the color was red compared to blue.
The problem with such tables is that the change is calculated on a monthly basis, meaning that you see the change on a monthly basis, and it may be misleading based on how Bitcoin performed in the past month. you find that the average annual profit and loss is different from the average that is calculated from the top and bottom of the cycle.

It's summer and I find the decline logical, I have an order that is supposed to arrive and some government transactions and almost everyone is on vacation, so calculating that we will be below $31,700.

[posi]

It is a no for me because Bitcoin have taken enough liquidity around $24,700 region. What we are seeing is a build-up of momentum to test the $36k region. A little fundamental now is enough to propel this move.  

Anyone expecting BTC to drop to $24k again might either miss the coming bull runs or enter at a very high price.

I also predict that a strong correction in August is unlikely. But if the prediction is long term, meaning from now until the bull run actually happens, then $24k is easily possible. I even believe that another black swan will come and make everything of 2020 repeat. The covid pandemic caused bitcoin to drop from $12k to $4k before the halving, and that could also be repeated with some bad news driving the market down. Of course that could be bad news for the market, or for the world economy, not I'm talking about another pandemic.

[Lucius]

Take a look at this Bitcoin Monthly Return 2023 Table, all the downs and ups each month have been recorded and it's just a matter of seeing what the market conditions are.


Source: https://bitcoinmonthlyreturn.com/

It seems that August was a positive month only in the years after the halving, (2013, 2017, 2021), and mostly negative in the other years. It is possible that this trend will continue this year, which means that we could expect the price to drop, although it is impossible to predict whether it will be only a few percent or something more serious.

Anyway, it seems to me that the chances of sliding down are slightly higher than any significant progress in the next 2-3 months.

[el kaka22]

Interesting, I assume it won't because it has been like this for a while and usually during this period whenever it goes down, it then bounces back up, not a lot, but a bit above 30k, could be maximum 32k, nothing more than that. I believe that the price would be somewhere around 30-31k levels and that should be good enough.

I can't really say when it will do and how it will do it but I feel like that's what's going to happen. Do not invest according to what I say of course, I am not really responsible for it if you do. I just "feel like it", so I do not know anything. If you look at the past 3 months, you will see that it goes under 30k and then goes above 30k and that's how it goes so far and I think that may do again.

[fzkto]

Yes, we ended last month not pretty good but it was still a good price for me. But talking and predicting what will happen this month of August, I was positive that it never goes back down below $28k instead, I was optimistic to see it moving $30k plus. Why? I believe the demand increases before halving and that is what I expect in a few days from now. I'd see more support coming from new investors. Of course, I don't think it go straight but certainly, we still witness the up and down of market prices.

Yes it is very possible and I also see movement from the beginning of the year and I think it is still quite positive despite what happened from August last year but I am optimistic that Bitcoin price will remain around 30k in this August and it is very likely that will increase (albeit slowly and slightly)
I think so after seeing and feeling what has happened throughout this year, many of us have seen a positive trend and most likely it will continue.

The positive momentum has really been there throughout this year. Bitcoin has done x2 since January. But still, there have been no serious corrections in these seven months yet. Without corrections, the price cannot move upwards. There have been several attempts to break the resistance around 32k, but so far it hasn't happened. I don't know what will happen in August with the price, but I expect a correction in the near future.

[Baofeng]

Yes, we ended last month not pretty good but it was still a good price for me. But talking and predicting what will happen this month of August, I was positive that it never goes back down below $28k instead, I was optimistic to see it moving $30k plus. Why? I believe the demand increases before halving and that is what I expect in a few days from now. I'd see more support coming from new investors. Of course, I don't think it go straight but certainly, we still witness the up and down of market prices.

Yes it is very possible and I also see movement from the beginning of the year and I think it is still quite positive despite what happened from August last year but I am optimistic that Bitcoin price will remain around 30k in this August and it is very likely that will increase (albeit slowly and slightly)
I think so after seeing and feeling what has happened throughout this year, many of us have seen a positive trend and most likely it will continue.

The positive momentum has really been there throughout this year. Bitcoin has done x2 since January. But still, there have been no serious corrections in these seven months yet. Without corrections, the price cannot move upwards. There have been several attempts to break the resistance around 32k, but so far it hasn't happened. I don't know what will happen in August with the price, but I expect a correction in the near future.

For me we could be trading sideways again, as we can see we can't even break $30k again, which should be the support. However, this early, it remains as the resistance.

But if I'm wrong and then we see in the next couple of weeks that we can jump in again and reach at least $31k, then it's good for the market. However, we need a positive news before the bulls takes over the market again this month.

[ScamViruS]

The positive momentum has really been there throughout this year. Bitcoin has done x2 since January. But still, there have been no serious corrections in these seven months yet. Without corrections, the price cannot move upwards. There have been several attempts to break the resistance around 32k, but so far it hasn't happened. I don't know what will happen in August with the price, but I expect a correction in the near future.

Bitcoin has been in an area for the past few months and has tried to build momentum many times and those moves have failed. In the area that Bitcoin is in now, we may see a healthy correction before the next uptrend. Now anything can happen because Bitcoin can go in any direction. The condition of the traditional market is also not good which will affect the price of Bitcoin as we have already seen the effect of the traditional market on Bitcoin as well. Whale traders don't move toward the next big move without increasing their position.

There was positive momentum in the market at the beginning of the year, which was comforting to Bitcoin investors and they expected to see more big moves but Bitcoin failed to break the strong resistance. Hopefully after a correction Bitcoin will regain positive momentum later this year.

[taufik123]

-snip-
The problem with such tables is that the change is calculated on a monthly basis, meaning that you see the change on a monthly basis, and it may be misleading based on how Bitcoin performed in the past month. you find that the average annual profit and loss is different from the average that is calculated from the top and bottom of the cycle.
-snip-

Misleading or not it depends on how well you digest the table. The cycle written in the table is indeed the performance of Bitcoin in one month, each monthly candle closure will be recorded whether it goes down or even up. So I don't think there is anything misleading.

It seems that August was a positive month only in the years after the halving, (2013, 2017, 2021), and mostly negative in the other years. It is possible that this trend will continue this year, which means that we could expect the price to drop, although it is impossible to predict whether it will be only a few percent or something more serious.

Anyway, it seems to me that the chances of sliding down are slightly higher than any significant progress in the next 2-3 months.

The opportunity for bearish does look bigger, and seeing now the negative sentiment towards Bitcoin is quite a lot.
August is the bearish starter and September might be the deep of the bearish of 2023.

Hopefully, after the early bear market is passed by Bitcoin, October can be a bullrun month like in the October table which is always bullish since 2019.

[Lucius]

~snip~
Hopefully, after the early bear market is passed by Bitcoin, October can be a bullrun month like in the October table which is always bullish since 2019.

It seems to me personally that we should not expect too much influence from the bulls until the end of this year, and possibly in the first months of next year, because it should be borne in mind that all those who invest in Bitcoin currently want to keep the price as low as possible. The accumulation phase is still ongoing, and the only factor that can disrupt this situation is the possibility that the spot BTC ETF will be approved in the US before the final deadline, which is sometime at the beginning of next year.