Adam Back's Bullish Bet

[Fundamentals Of]

This is a bet between Adam Back and Vikingo on Twitter.


https://twitter.com/adam3us/status/1687867034158440448

The bet was later on revised.


https://twitter.com/adam3us/status/1687867393664847872

But still I can't help but think twice why the respected Dr. Adam Back is this bullish. If I were to bet on this, I'd bet against him. But this man isn't a John McAfee or a Balaji who were apparently exaggerating in their predictions. Adam Back seems to be a very reasonable man for me.

I know he's just reacting to Cointelegraph's article Bitcoin miners need BTC price over $98K by the halving — Analysis. But he's really convinced that Bitcoin will indeed reach at least $100,000 on or before the halving. He's willing to bet on it.

Do you think Adam Back's prediction is realistic? Are you as bullish as him?

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[Tytanowy Janusz]

I have no idea why I come across this bet again and again. A bet of $300 at the current bitcoin rate.

Adam Back seems to be a very reasonable man for me.

If you are a CEO of company and have 500k twitter fallowers making 300$ bet is reasonable even if you are betting on the fact that earth is flat because he will earn more on the increased popularity than the bet is worth (which can be seen from the fact that I see people talking about this bet in several places)

[Fundamentals Of]

I have no idea why I come across this bet again and again. A bet of $300 at the current bitcoin rate.

Adam Back seems to be a very reasonable man for me.

If you are a CEO of company and have 500k twitter fallowers making 300$ bet is reasonable even if you are betting on the fact that earth is flat because he will earn more on the increased popularity than the bet is worth (which can be seen from the fact that I see people talking about this bet in several places)

If it makes me look foolish, even without the bet, I won't do it.

[DeathAngel]

$100,000 is only just over 3 x from the current price, it’s not that unrealistic. I think we will hit $100,000 probably in 2025 but if the raft of spot etf’s get approved then that could see us pump to $100,000 quick enough for AB to win his bet.

I’m thinking he will lose his bet but I wouldn’t he overly surprised if he were to win it. Let’s wait & see what happens.

[michellee]

I don't know because everyone can make predictions and post them on social media for people to see. We have nothing to do with people's predictions because we don't know exactly how they came up with that number. It's better if we just skip the predictions or we keep in a special note about all the predictions from people so we can analyze them later.

I am still bullish and feel that the Bitcoin price could be over $100k, but I don't know when that will happen. And I also don't care about other people's predictions because I focus on collecting more Bitcoin now. You should also have the same focus on collecting Bitcoins rather than just reading predictions from other people because that will make you forget to try to collect Bitcoins.

Let that prediction be a prediction, especially since we don't know what will happen in the future or a few months later. We have to try to have many Bitcoins at times like now to get big profits when bull runs occur.

[Johnyz]

This is possible, it's just a matter of time though its better not to expect that much because Halving right now might bring a different scenario in the market. I just don't see that price to happen before the halving period, usually the price pump after the halving and it will still need more time before we reached the pump. I'm bullish but being careful with the hype, look at the price trend and have a good timing to enter.

[OgNasty]

I agree. A $300 bet for a CEO isn’t bullish at all. It’s almost a bearish signal to be honest. Seems more like throwing $300 out there to get some people talking and possibly buying to follow this bet by a CEO. It doesn’t make sense for him to make this bet anyway. If BTC triples he’ll make hundreds of millions of dollars. This bet is irrelevant.

[imamusma]

$100k is a relatively reasonable amount to look forward to after the 2024 halving. I'm sure it will be reached, but it might be sooner if a bitcoin ETF gets approved. I'm not sure $100k will be hit before the halving, but if this bet is about face value after the halving then I'd say it's a reasonable bet. I'm bullish on bitcoin, but $100k won't be reached before the halving and maybe 3-5 after the halving.

It will take considerable time and support from investors for $100k to become a reality, but if a bitcoin ETF is approved then there is a possibility that $100 will be reached sooner than many think.

[OgNasty]

He should offer that same bet to users here on the forum. I’d be in for a million satoshi’s.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

If it makes me look foolish, even without the bet, I won't do it.

it's a pity that 99% of youtubers and tiktokers don't create a similar way of thinking

x3 from the current price is not that far away. The flat earth comparison i did in previous post is a bit too strong here, because it's total absurdity, and 3x from the current price on bitcoin is possible. So Adam made this deal in my opinion - "i buy 100k subs for $300 with this action, if it fails, no one will remember it anyway, because it's almost a year from now. And if I succeed, he will get another 100k subs, 300$ and I'll be called an oracle"

[Poker Player]

Do you think Adam Back's prediction is realistic? Are you as bullish as him?

Not very realistic. It's not impossible for that to happen, but if the pattern of this cycle resembles previous ones in Bitcoin's short history, there is no way the price will surpass the $69K ATH in what's left until halving. Patterns need not repeat themselves indefinitely, however, and this cycle is an example of that, but on a downward trend.

But as mentioned, him betting only $300 is not very bullish.

[buwaytress]

Not with him, but only because of my arbitrary belief in the post-halving cyclical rally, rather than anything else. If global economic conditions weren't so dire, I might fancy a hopeful fling in the 100k direction but I think real-life macro pressures will not help any kind of rally.

Cheap marketing, and looks like it worked.

Curious, but not enough to see myself: did they use conditioned escrow or something for this? That might have been cool.

[JoyMarsha]

I can only be bullish about bitcoin if the halving has already occurred. Since the halving hasn't occurred, I think am less bullish on bitcoin price.  I'll turn bullish on Bitcoin following months after the halving season  that is expected to occur by next year.

Regarding that, I'm trying to determine how realistically Adams projection of $100k before the halving season might be made. Since it is after months of the halving season that Bitcoin tends to soar in price, reaching a new all-time high. I'm not sure how likely it will be that the current state of the crypto market will result in a new ATH being set before the halving season. That looks unrealistic to me, I don't know for others, what they think about Adams prediction

[Wind_FURY]

Do you think Adam Back's prediction is realistic? Are you as bullish as him?

Not very realistic. It's not impossible for that to happen, but if the pattern of this cycle resembles previous ones in Bitcoin's short history, there is no way the price will surpass the $69K ATH in what's left until halving. Patterns need not repeat themselves indefinitely, however, and this cycle is an example of that, but on a downward trend.

But as mentioned, him betting only $300 is not very bullish.

Perhaps he forgot to add two more zeros in his offer. Haha. Although, he might be right. Because what if the Federal Reserve made the pivot from QT to QE?

There are projections from the more bearish economists illustrating that a recession is inevitable, and the timeline could be late 2023 or early 2024. And because the Federal Reserve has the susceptibility to over-adjust, the first small signs of a recession would probably make the printer go "BRRRR". IF "BRRRR" does indeed happen during March next year, then we have already seen its effects on Bitcoin and other markets during March, 2020. They will SURGE.

[adaseb]

I read about this earlier in the week. I assumed it was a joke because 1 million sats is $300 currently and if Bitcoin goes to $100000 then it will be $1000.

I think many here assumed it was more of like a $1M bet. So this doesn’t really show much confidence. It’s like betting $1 that Bitcoin will go to $1M next month. Either way was a fun thread to read and was very well engaged.

[OgNasty]

I read about this earlier in the week. I assumed it was a joke because 1 million sats is $300 currently and if Bitcoin goes to $100000 then it will be $1000.

I think many here assumed it was more of like a $1M bet. So this doesn’t really show much confidence. It’s like betting $1 that Bitcoin will go to $1M next month. Either way was a fun thread to read and was very well engaged.

Ya, I’m sure everyone figured it was at least a 1 BTC bet. That’s why the whole situation reeks of cheap marketing. Imagine how much money he would make if BTC went to $100,000…  Things like this make me cringe. Bitcoin shouldn’t need fake promotion to be successful. This is the sort of thing you usually see at market tops.

[Wind_FURY]

I read about this earlier in the week. I assumed it was a joke because 1 million sats is $300 currently and if Bitcoin goes to $100000 then it will be $1000.

I think many here assumed it was more of like a $1M bet. So this doesn’t really show much confidence. It’s like betting $1 that Bitcoin will go to $1M next month. Either way was a fun thread to read and was very well engaged.

Ya, I’m sure everyone figured it was at least a 1 BTC bet. That’s why the whole situation reeks of cheap marketing. Imagine how much money he would make if BTC went to $100,000…  Things like this make me cringe. Bitcoin shouldn’t need fake promotion to be successful. This is the sort of thing you usually see at market tops.

Adam Back probably HODLs more than enough Bitcoin to make a 1 BTC bet, but perhaps he doesn't want to convey that unintentionally?

Plus if it's cheap marketing, then you don't believe that Bitcoin will be trading at $100,000 either during the next halving, or at block height 840,000? It's possible if you ask me.

[Yaunfitda]

I read about this earlier in the week. I assumed it was a joke because 1 million sats is $300 currently and if Bitcoin goes to $100000 then it will be $1000.

I think many here assumed it was more of like a $1M bet. So this doesn’t really show much confidence. It’s like betting $1 that Bitcoin will go to $1M next month. Either way was a fun thread to read and was very well engaged.

Ya, I’m sure everyone figured it was at least a 1 BTC bet. That’s why the whole situation reeks of cheap marketing. Imagine how much money he would make if BTC went to $100,000…  Things like this make me cringe. Bitcoin shouldn’t need fake promotion to be successful. This is the sort of thing you usually see at market tops.

Adam Back probably HODLs more than enough Bitcoin to make a 1 BTC bet, but perhaps he doesn't want to convey that unintentionally?

Plus if it's cheap marketing, then you don't believe that Bitcoin will be trading at $100,000 either during the next halving, or at block height 840,000? It's possible if you ask me.

Yeah, I do agree that it's definitely possible that it can get to $100k during the next halving and for sure this is want Adam is banking. I think as you have said, this is marketing 101, he has a narrative behind why he wanted to see bitcoin price at $100k so easy bet for him.

And with that, this could be the most watch thread in twitter, both had a lot of followers so we will see who's going to win or if this bet is for real or not. So it's going to be fun to see how everything turns out next year.

[Husires]

Is this a million dollars or a million satoshi? If it was a million satoshis, then we are talking about a bet of about $ 300 or, in the worst cases, less than $ 1,500. Do you think that such a bet is something serious?
This was reminded of the crazy bets that John McAfee was making and what's going on here is not that different.

Some tweeters consider Adam Back as the new bitcoin jesus. No one can predict what will happen to the price, but the bet on $100,000 came from historical data saying that after halving it is possible, but the price still needs several months.

[Lucius]

Considering the stake in the bet, I think it's just that the mentioned person wants to have some fun, because that's what rich people do when they're bored. Therefore, what the aforementioned people are betting on is completely meaningless, the price will be formed by supply and demand anyway - and the only event that can increase the price by more than 300% in such a short period is the approval of the spot BTC ETF in the US, with the condition that BR and all other funds start buying large amounts of BTC for their clients.

I suggest you don't play this game, because as @Tytanowy Janusz wrote this is a win-win situation for only one person and his company, for everyone else it's a complete waste of time.