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Author Topic: <Read>The Mathematical Significance Of 1 Bitcoin In Relation To Time.  (Read 103 times)
Josefjix (OP)
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August 07, 2023, 11:55:03 AM
Merited by fillippone (1)
 #1

First, it is interesting to know how much 1 Bitcoin represents in percentage terms measured against the total amount of Bitcoin ever available.

1/21,000,000 equals 0.0000000476%.

very little. However, Bitcoin has something ingenious embedded in it. With the halving epochs, time takes on a special role for Bitcoin:

In the first period, 50 Bitcoin are created every 10 minutes on average, 600 seconds, or 1 Bitcoin every 12 seconds. Every 12 seconds 0.0000000476% of the total supply.

Today in 2023, there are 6.25 new Bitcoin every 600 seconds, or 1 Bitcoin per 96 seconds. Every 96 seconds 0.0000000476% of the total. When the fourth halving arrives in a few months, it will take 192 seconds - 3 minutes and 12 seconds - for each new Bitcoin.


When will the time come that 1 year must pass before 1 Bitcoin is created?

Let's jump to 2096: the block subsidy is 0.0001192 Bitcoin. It will take more than a year to find a full Bitcoin: 1/0.0001192 = 83,893 blocks ≈ 838,930 minutes ≈ 1.6 years. Just over 2 Bitcoin are issued in this halving period.

The same amount of new value that is created today in just 96 seconds, will ~68 years later take over a year and a half to be created.

But Bitcoin shows us its full potential of the inflation plan the closer we get to the total amount: if only 0.0000000476% - i.e. the last Bitcoin - is missing, it will take about 35 years until this last Bitcoin becomes usable for mankind.

What started with 12 seconds in 2009 will reach its zenith in 2140, when from the years 2104/2106 on, ~35 years of time are needed to create the last full Bitcoin.

With each halving, the period until a new Bitcoin is created doubles. It will become increasingly difficult, incredibly difficult for anyone to obtain fresh Bitcoin as time progresses.

Horrible things like man made devastating wars will hardly be feasible and affordable anymore, because Bitcoin is simply too rare to be able and willing to wage war with it.


Ref: Source shared for educational purposes

R


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The network tries to produce one block per 10 minutes. It does this by automatically adjusting how difficult it is to produce blocks.
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August 07, 2023, 01:46:11 PM
 #2

With each halving, the period until a new Bitcoin is created doubles. It will become increasingly difficult, incredibly difficult for anyone to obtain fresh Bitcoin as time progresses.

Maybe your statement here needs more clarifications, bitcoin is at its best and nothing will depreciate it value, rather this will increases over time, maybe you will need to explain what you mean by the difficulty in obtaining a fresh bitcoin over time.

Horrible things like man made devastating wars will hardly be feasible and affordable anymore, because Bitcoin is simply too rare to be able and willing to wage war with it.

If the world economy can have no impact on bitcoin, what other measn or source can devastate bitcoin anymore? Obviously nothing, don't even start with the suggestions of things that are not.

R


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dzungmobile
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August 07, 2023, 04:15:13 PM
 #3

Some other views.

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August 07, 2023, 05:16:37 PM
 #4

In the future, mining will require incredible power
hatshepsut93
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August 07, 2023, 06:45:29 PM
 #5


The same amount of new value that is created today in just 96 seconds, will ~68 years later take over a year and a half to be created.

It's not the same. 1 Bitcoin in 2010 had different value from 1 Bitcoin today and from 1 Bitcoin in 2096

Horrible things like man made devastating wars will hardly be feasible and affordable anymore, because Bitcoin is simply too rare to be able and willing to wage war with it.


Wars are started for a variety of reasons, but never over the properties of a payment network. Bitcoin is as likely to stop wars as it is likely to cure cancer.

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Josefjix (OP)
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August 08, 2023, 12:43:12 AM
 #6

With each halving, the period until a new Bitcoin is created doubles. It will become increasingly difficult, incredibly difficult for anyone to obtain fresh Bitcoin as time progresses.

Maybe your statement here needs more clarifications, bitcoin is at its best and nothing will depreciate it value, rather this will increases over time, maybe you will need to explain what you mean by the difficulty in obtaining a fresh bitcoin over time.

Currently, it takes 96 seconds to create one Bitcoin; in the next halving, it will take 192 seconds - 3 minutes and 12 seconds - for each new Bitcoin; fast forward to 2092, when it will take 1 year+ to create one Bitcoin, and the price must have skyrocketed to $2m/BTC; tell me how many people will be able to obtain one at this rate- it becomes increasingly difficult to obtain one as time passes.

R


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August 08, 2023, 01:59:40 AM
 #7

If no blocks are found and in turn no transactions are processed, then the bigger implication is that the mining fees will become astronomical as more and more transactions vie for a place in the next block on the chain.  We see that already with a couple of hundred blocks worth of transactions waiting to be processed.  In the long run, this points to bitcoin and its blockchain moving away from day to day trading and into the realm of inter-bank trading (at least until the time to find a block becomes too great)

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August 08, 2023, 02:09:58 AM
 #8

So, if I understand this well, Bitcoin is supposed to become more and more like... digital gold? Rare and difficult to mind. Bitcoin's ascent is like to progressing through a series of increasingly difficult levels in a popular online game.

Here's a paradox for you to ponder, though: if Bitcoin's greatest virtue is its scarcity, then wouldn't it also reduce the currency's practical utility? Isn't it strange that you linked Bitcoin to the inability to finance wars? Wouldn't the resources of each country matter more than any one currency when planning a war?

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August 08, 2023, 02:22:58 AM
 #9

Here's a paradox for you to ponder, though: if Bitcoin's greatest virtue is its scarcity, then wouldn't it also reduce the currency's practical utility?

That's a good way of putting it - think of it in terms of Fort Knox where there is a substantial holding of America's gold reserves.  Any country has a stockpile of gold - Bank of England included which is heavily guarded.  In time quantum computers might become super weapons cracking private keys.

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August 08, 2023, 02:24:16 AM
Last edit: August 08, 2023, 02:36:19 AM by stompix
 #10

In the first period, 50 Bitcoin are created every 10 minutes on average, 600 seconds, or 1 Bitcoin every 12 seconds. Every 12 seconds 0.0000000476% of the total supply.
Today in 2023, there are 6.25 new Bitcoin every 600 seconds, or 1 Bitcoin per 96 seconds. Every 96 seconds 0.0000000476% of the total. When the fourth halving arrives in a few months, it will take 192 seconds - 3 minutes and 12 seconds - for each new Bitcoin.

Actually, this is wrong.
The desired time between blocks is 10 minutes, but it doesn't really mean that it is achieved, in most epochs it is quite lower.
The average block time is 9.22 minutes right now since the first block, so on average 6% faster than normal.

Second thing
Quote
1/21,000,000 equals 0.0000000476%
No, it does not, it's 0.00000476% you added two extra zeros.

What started with 12 seconds in 2009 will reach its zenith in 2140, when from the years 2104/2106 on, ~35 years of time are needed to create the last full Bitcoin.

Again wrong, there will never be a full last Bitcoin, the actual number is 20,999,999.9796 BTC.

Horrible things like man made devastating wars will hardly be feasible and affordable anymore, because Bitcoin is simply too rare to be able and willing to wage war with it.

Lol, yeah right, and by the 666 block of the 6th halving Jesus will come back to earth.
How could one draw such conclusions is beyond my capacity to understand human delusions!

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August 08, 2023, 03:09:39 AM
 #11

-cut-
Again wrong, there will never be a full last Bitcoin, the actual number is 20,999,999.9796 BTC.
-cut-

Does the halving get to such a small amount that it becomes so insignificant that it stops?  (I'm thinking zero point zero, zero zero ... 125 or something like that?)

Then what?  Blocks that have no reward except for the actual transaction fees?  Would that mean infrequent blocks created and hyper transaction fees?

Pleased to meet you.
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