Bitcoin $27,000 - $27,500 Support Zone

[dragonvslinux]

Some TA based on current price-movements and support zones now the market is moving again.. Personally, I'm anticipating a bounce from around $27,500 - $27,500, based on Daily, 3D and Weekly time-frames.

Strangely enough the 200 moving average on each of these three time-frames are around the same price, for the first time in a very long time (can't remember last time).

Daily time-frame: 200 MA @ $27,234. Bullish with 1 re-test as support in March and will continue to increase with price above $25K



Likelihood of a bounce from the 200 Day MA remains likely based on previous bullish re-test and current market structure of higher high and higher lows. Price is currently around 3% from this level.


3 Day time-frame - 200 MA @ $27,470. Still bearish and will continue to decline for next 4 months with price below $40K



In previous Bitcoin bear markets price has entered a long period of consolidation (9-12 months) post bear market and bear market relief rally when the 3 Day 200 MA is declining, with price generally remaining above it. This happened in both 2015/2016 as well as 2019/2020, so could potentially lead into 2024 given price only regained this level in June. Am otherwise anticipating for this level to hold as support, as it did in previous years when price reclaimed this level, with the likelihood of a re-test at some point later in the year or early 2024, as well as the case in 2016 as well as 2020.


Weekly time-frame - 200 MA @ $27,441. Remains bullish after re-test in June and will continue to increase with price above $10K



Although the 200 WMA seems less significant as support or resistance in the past year, it is none the less priced very close to the 200 Day MA that has acted in support in recent months, as well as the 3 Day 200 MA that has acted as support (once reclaimed) in recent years.Generally I think the chance of finding a "co-incidental" bounce from this level seems likely, as it will merely be the Daily/3D charts playing out in their usual manner. No doubt if price does turn this MA into new support, many will claim it will be because of it's significance, but personally I think will simpler be the lower time-frames that causes this to happen.


TL:DR: After initially anticipating the likes of $40K-$50K this year for a dead cat bounce / bear market rally, it's now starting to look more likely for continued consolidation between $25K and $32K for the next few months in my opinion. Volume and momentum continues to decline for both the bulls and the bears while price action remains in a bullish structure on mid to long-term time-frames, with notable confluence of mid to long-term support around $27,000 to $27,500. The bears otherwise need to breach $25K in order to invalidate the higher highs and higher lows structure of the current uptrend.


For fundamental analysis I recommend Glassnode's recent newsletter: Exhaustion and Apathy

Another bullish factor based on network strength: Hash Ribbons buy signal last week
 

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[adaseb]

I have a feeling that someone knows something and that is why we are dumping. The open interest increased a few days ago when we started to decline. I think there is word of a ETF rejection or a delay that we will receive at the end of the month most likely

Usually when we trade in this type tight volatility, it means we will one day break-out. However we don't know which way. But it now looks like we are breaking in the bear side. We will see if $27K holds, but if it doesn't then it doesn't look good.

[pixie85]

I have a feeling that someone knows something and that is why we are dumping.

And I think that some traders are selling just because they're gamblers and they feel like it's the way to go after the negative news about the ETF delay this week and the rest thinks like you that they must know something that we don't

What you can see on the charts now is a good example of how leveraged this market is and how the price doesn't mean anything because the market lacks liquidity in open orders.

OP's 27k is still in play as support because we haven't seen a daily close below it, although this leverage liquidation may scare people into selling and prolong the correction.

[Stellarcast]

I have a feeling that someone knows something and that is why we are dumping. The open interest increased a few days ago when we started to decline. I think there is word of a ETF rejection or a delay that we will receive at the end of the month most likely

Maybe that may explain SpaceX cashing out on $373M worth of BTC, or they could have been part of the reason why. Price dropped to a low of 25,300 and is now at 26,400 but given such a large dump, perhaps the price will continue to fall as others follow suit and panic sell. If you look at the unaudited balance sheet of Tesla, they still have about $184M of BTC left after selling close to a billion worth on BTC in 2022. I wonder if Elon is moving away from crypto as an asset or if there's another reason behind it.

[Sim_card]

I have a feeling that someone knows something and that is why we are dumping. The open interest increased a few days ago when we started to decline. I think there is word of a ETF rejection or a delay that we will receive at the end of the month most likely

Maybe that may explain SpaceX cashing out on $373M worth of BTC, or they could have been part of the reason why. Price dropped to a low of 25,300 and is now at 26,400 but given such a large dump, perhaps the price will continue to fall as others follow suit and panic sell. If you look at the unaudited balance sheet of Tesla, they still have about $184M of BTC left after selling close to a billion worth on BTC in 2022. I wonder if Elon is moving away from crypto as an asset or if there's another reason behind it.

I don't think that Elon is moving away crypto but he is moving away bitcoin to hype some Dodgecoin that he is now using the logo on Twitter that he changed to X. It is better that he sells off all his bitcoin so that bitcoin will be free from people like him that can wake up one morning to hate bitcoin and wake up the next day to love bitcoin. The market will do better without him as nobody can control bitcoin price for long. The government policy has more effect on bitcoin than Elon and still yet bitcoin has overcome so many of them. I hope to see a rise in bitcoin price soon.

[dragonvslinux]

So $27K has broken for now, only Daily time-frame at least, with a day and a half on 3D chart and the weekend left on Weekly chart. Price reached close to $25K on leverage exchanges with $500m liquidations.

Currently one of the only reasons I don't see further downside imminently is that price has already reached considerably oversold level on Daily time-frame. The last time the RSI was this low was during January and June last year, which saw 40% increases from these lows during the bear market, even if price ended up going lower some months later.



So despite $27K level failing to hold as support so far, price strength is suggesting this is the local low for now, or otherwise that price will need to consolidate at lower level in order for the RSI to cool off for price to go lower in the following weeks or months, but not in the coming days basically. Either that or the RSI can fall lower than 20 and a capitulation likely worse than the previous two will occur, suggesting that capitulation hasn't occurred yet within the current context of bear market / reovery, but I find that hard to believe. That said, it could take some time to reclaim $27-$27.5K support range now that price has fallen through.

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

I have a feeling that someone knows something and that is why we are dumping. The open interest increased a few days ago when we started to decline. I think there is word of a ETF rejection or a delay that we will receive at the end of the month most likely

Maybe that may explain SpaceX cashing out on $373M worth of BTC, or they could have been part of the reason why. Price dropped to a low of 25,300 and is now at 26,400 but given such a large dump, perhaps the price will continue to fall as others follow suit and panic sell. If you look at the unaudited balance sheet of Tesla, they still have about $184M of BTC left after selling close to a billion worth on BTC in 2022. I wonder if Elon is moving away from crypto as an asset or if there's another reason behind it.

I don't think that Elon is moving away crypto but he is moving away bitcoin to hype some Dodgecoin that he is now using the logo on Twitter that he changed to X. It is better that he sells off all his bitcoin so that bitcoin will be free from people like him that can wake up one morning to hate bitcoin and wake up the next day to love bitcoin. The market will do better without him as nobody can control bitcoin price for long. The government policy has more effect on bitcoin than Elon and still yet bitcoin has overcome so many of them. I hope to see a rise in bitcoin price soon.

Elon Musk is not the only whale in the Bitcoin market, and despite the fact that he can play a vital role in the publicity of Doge or Bitcoin, perhaps he can't still control the market entirely. During times like this, there is usually a lot of panic selling, and if the selling is too high, it causes the price to drop significantly. With the current report about SpaceX selling Bitcoin, it just said they sold all Bitcoin holdings but never specified the amount of Bitcoin that was sold. I don't really think that Elon Musk is going out of Bitcoin to support Doge Coins, and you never can tell if this was a plot to acquire more of Bitcoin since the price drop. On Binance last night, as the price plunged, there was a buy order for 100 bitcoins that executed for around $25,600, just on Binance alone, not talking about other CEX. So, this was also a plot to buy more. Just don't believe that Elon Musk is leaving Bitcoin to support Doge Coin, and you will still be surprised to see news about Tesla buying some X amount of Bitcoin.

[RewFrew]

Bitcoin price already brake support zone. Now Bitcoin price is $26000. I think calculation break for SpaceX cashing out on $373M worth. They recently sell $373 million worth of Bitcoin. So bitcoin price dumping. Today near about 8% bitcoin price fall. And still dumping. Yesterday Bitcoin price dropped to $25400. I think new Support Zone is $25300, From here Bitcoin price will bounce i think and it will go $30k again. Your calculation and prediction was good i think, But it break Support Zone for SpaceX sold $373M worth Bitcoin.

[bittraffic]

I have a feeling that someone knows something and that is why we are dumping. The open interest increased a few days ago when we started to decline. I think there is word of a ETF rejection or a delay that we will receive at the end of the month most likely

Usually when we trade in this type tight volatility, it means we will one day break-out. However we don't know which way. But it now looks like we are breaking in the bear side. We will see if $27K holds, but if it doesn't then it doesn't look good.

Michael Burry dumped his stocks before this BTC dump happened. I guess he got a heads-up for what's coming.
My anticipation this time is for the weekly scale to hit the bottom, the price has to go down to $18k for it to be considerably a good bottom before bouncing gain.

For the speculators in the futures market to stop speculating, they'd have to move to the spot market or get liquidated and by that time, prices will go up. This kind of dip has always happ[en every time there is an exchange activating their futures market. This week it was Coinbase.

[Husires]

It has been a long time since your last analysis, your analyzes were good and in-depth, the speed of the rebound from 25.6K and failure to break 31.6k means that we will enter into stability between these two levels for the coming months, but it also means that the return to 41k dollars will be Very fast, so the goal of $40,000 by the end of this year or until January next year is very possible.
if nothing happens until the end of the week, there will be no further decline.

[justdimin]

I don't think that Elon is moving away crypto but he is moving away bitcoin to hype some Dodgecoin that he is now using the logo on Twitter that he changed to X. It is better that he sells off all his bitcoin so that bitcoin will be free from people like him that can wake up one morning to hate bitcoin and wake up the next day to love bitcoin. The market will do better without him as nobody can control bitcoin price for long. The government policy has more effect on bitcoin than Elon and still yet bitcoin has overcome so many of them. I hope to see a rise in bitcoin price soon.

It's true that it is much better world without Elon Musk in it, he has ruined everything he got involved with in the recent years, he had two great shots with space x and tesla and did alright, tesla was invented even before him, he just took over and he did absolutely nothing but just fund it, for some reason people think Elon Musk is a genius, when in fact he had absolutely nothing to do with the car, same as people who adored Steve Jobs, who did absolutely nothing but just marketing.

I think it's important to realize that you are not going to get anything big with this, it's going to be a tough one and we should reconsider the situation. I understand that it may not be that simple, but as long as it exists, we should be happy about having no Elon in it.

[adaseb]

Yeah Elon sure picked a great time to sell. Basically during a very low volatility and no liquidity quiet summer month. If he sold this earlier then it wouldn’t of been so bad but there was just no liquidity and hence why we dumped so low and so fast.

It wasn’t his selling that caused this directly because he sold before but the news of him getting out of Bitcoin was overall negative. And many copy his trades and basically did the same and hence people panicked. We will survive and get through this however without Elon.

[Jating]

Yeah Elon sure picked a great time to sell. Basically during a very low volatility and no liquidity quiet summer month. If he sold this earlier then it wouldn’t of been so bad but there was just no liquidity and hence why we dumped so low and so fast.

It wasn’t his selling that caused this directly because he sold before but the news of him getting out of Bitcoin was overall negative. And many copy his trades and basically did the same and hence people panicked. We will survive and get through this however without Elon.

Yes, it's just the timing of his dumps that causes a flash card and OP pointed out a good support zone, but with that negative news, it was invalidated very quickly as we go down to $25k.

And with that news couple of negative news or those spreading FUD and capitalizing on the Elon Musk sell-off, there could a lot of panic sells and wanted to get out of the market because they don't like what they are seeing. But in any case though, we are going to survived this just like what we did in the past.

[flyingcarpet]

Yeah Elon sure picked a great time to sell. Basically during a very low volatility and no liquidity quiet summer month. If he sold this earlier then it wouldn’t of been so bad but there was just no liquidity and hence why we dumped so low and so fast.

It wasn’t his selling that caused this directly because he sold before but the news of him getting out of Bitcoin was overall negative. And many copy his trades and basically did the same and hence people panicked. We will survive and get through this however without Elon.

Elon will always be in the market and I think he will get Bitcoin soon. Isn't it best to buy at a low price? I think he will. He sold his Bitcoins at a time when there was not much volume in the market and reduced Bitcoin to a certain level. Maybe he expects others to sell like him and wants to buy at a low price.

Bitcoin has experienced a lot of things like this. I think it would be a mistake to panic and sell Bitcoin right now.

[bbc.reporter]

@flyingcarpet. If you are telling everyone that he will buy bitcoin for Tesla and SpaceX's treasuries then I very much disagree. It will be difficult because Elon owns companies that wants to create a greener and cleaner environment. Bitcoin is being denounced by the mainstream as a destroyer of the environment. This will not be good for his companies' public agenda.

However, I speculate that he might do something with Dogecoin that might make it his companies' first coin of choice for adoption. It might begin in X.



DOGECOIN TRAILMAP: PROLOGUE
Dogecoin Trailmap: Prologue
Project: Dogecoin.com makeover & Dogepedia
Project: Libdogecoin
Project: Dogecoin Standard
Project: GigaWallet
Project: Dogecoin Keyring (App / SDK)
Project: RadioDoge (Starlink + Radio nodes for remote locations)
Proposal: Community Staking (Proof of Stake)
Partnership: Point of Sale (L2 app)

Source https://foundation.dogecoin.com/trailmap/prologue/

[fzkto]

Yeah Elon sure picked a great time to sell. Basically during a very low volatility and no liquidity quiet summer month. If he sold this earlier then it wouldn’t of been so bad but there was just no liquidity and hence why we dumped so low and so fast.

It wasn’t his selling that caused this directly because he sold before but the news of him getting out of Bitcoin was overall negative. And many copy his trades and basically did the same and hence people panicked. We will survive and get through this however without Elon.

Elon will always be in the market and I think he will get Bitcoin soon. Isn't it best to buy at a low price? I think he will. He sold his Bitcoins at a time when there was not much volume in the market and reduced Bitcoin to a certain level. Maybe he expects others to sell like him and wants to buy at a low price.

Bitcoin has experienced a lot of things like this. I think it would be a mistake to panic and sell Bitcoin right now.

I wouldn't put my faith in Elon because everything he does is only for his own benefit. We have seen this in the past when he manipulated the price of bitcoin and doge. After his tweets and actions I personally wouldn't react to him at all. But I agree with you that it's not a good idea to sell now. It is better to have free money now to buy on a dip.