stompix (OP)
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Ok, the tile of the link sounds stupid right now: Bitcoin soars in Argentina as Javier Milei wins presidential primary https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-hits-record-highs-in-argentina-as-javier-milei-wins-primarybut it's the other text that matters: The most recent Bitcoin rally in Argentina came amid the presidential primary win by pro-Bitcoin presidential candidate Milei. After winning the primary with more than 30% of votes, Milei is now the front-runner in Argentina’s general election in October. As previously reported, Milei wants to abolish the central bank and adopt the United States dollar as Argentina’s currency. The presidential candidate also believes that Bitcoin is a reaction against “central bank scammers,” while fiat currency allows politicians to scam Argentines with inflation.
So, this is going to be a really mindfuck moment for a lot of users - he likes Bitcoin - wants to get rid of the central bank - want to fully adopt the usd dollar, so ditching completely the pesos Of course, there are some other bits about abortion and climate change and the fact that has already sent a big f word to China and her Brics but the whole thing is about on one side getting rid of the central bank and on the other of fully adopting the USD is really interesting as It would be the largest economy that has done this after Ecuador and it will just rise the number of countries that are either using the dollar directly or a currency pegged to it. So, that much for the so-called de-dollarization some nutcases still think it's happening. The first impact will be clear, double and triple-digit inflation will go away, of course there will be some bad things happening as there will be no more money printing so the government will not be able to hand over the traditional socialist gifts that come to bite you in the ass 2 years later to get elected, but more importantly, how would this affect the perception of Bitcoin. It's obviously seen as a way to escape spiraling inflation but with a real hard currency would it stop losing its currency flavor and be seen as more of an investment?
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August 18, 2023, 05:52:18 PM |
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The first impact will be clear, double and triple-digit inflation will go away, of course there will be some bad things happening as there will be no more money printing so the government will not be able to hand over the traditional socialist gifts that come to bite you in the ass 2 years later to get elected, but more importantly, how would this affect the perception of Bitcoin. It's obviously seen as a way to escape spiraling inflation but with a real hard currency would it stop losing its currency flavor and be seen as more of an investment?
This news is already having a positive impact on the bitcoin market in Argentina. The high inflation in the country is making people turn to Bitcoin as a hedge. Adopting the dollar is a sound economic strategy to gain monetary stability but it comes with a price. Dollarization helped reduced corruption and stabilized the economy of Ecuador and Zimbabwe. One problem is that the Argentina monetary system will now depend on the monetary policy of the US central bank for monetary policy. And the US central bank might not consider Argentina when making its policies. The US will make policies that suit its economy. If Javier Milei wins the presidential election on 22 October this year, Bitcoin might get the needed boast in Argentina. I don't think Bitcoin will easily regain its traditional status as currency. If the price keeps accelerating more people will keep it as an investment because it will become more precious.
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d5000
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August 18, 2023, 07:46:14 PM |
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The first impact will be clear, double and triple-digit inflation will go away Argentina had already a period (1991-2001) when there was a de-facto dollarization during the Menem government via a currency board, an 1:1 peg to the US dollar. The problem is that this period hadn't the expected outcome. Triple digit inflation went away, but there were several years with double digit inflation, which made Argentine goods very expensive, and this led to the general Argentine crisis of 2001. If Argentina adopts a similar policy again, this will probably be similar. Above all the industrial sector will suffer, there will be higher unemployment (now it's modest with ~7%). Here a graph showing Argentina and Ecuador's economic growth 1984-today: ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Ftalkimg.com%2Fimages%2F2023%2F08%2F18%2FMCyKZ.png&t=665&c=mSrZx_mZyDIAuA) (Source: World Bank) You can see that in both cases, Argentina and Ecuador, there was an initial boom after dollarization/currency board introduction. In Argentina, 1991, and in Ecuador, 2000. But then the growth went increasingly bumpy. Dollarization creates a higher dependency on external commerce and international financial events and gives in generall less flexibility. It's a gamble, you could have favourable outcome or not, depending on your economical structure. Argentina's post-currency-board history coincides with Ecuador's dollarization (~2000-2002) and after these years there is no clear "winner" between both if you look at economic growth. With cryptos emerging as an alternative, a dollarized country could try to introduce altcoins as a way to stimulate growth if it thinks it needs to increase money supply. I'm less thinking about an independent currency (like ETH or LTC) but more of a kind of utility token. This could give the country flexibility again, so I'm currently a bit less against dollarization than I'd have been in 1992 or 2000. how would this affect the perception of Bitcoin. It's obviously seen as a way to escape spiraling inflation but with a real hard currency would it stop losing its currency flavor and be seen as more of an investment?
I guess in Argentina BTC adoption is clearly benefitting from the current high-inflation scenario. It is already used more as an investment than as a currency, but has also the function to act as an intermediate step between the Peso and external currencies like the US dollar, as US dollar acquisition is restricted. If the country was already dollarized, I think BTC adoption will grow slower. The country could go the way of El Salvador though, trying to force Bitcoin adoption to become at least a little bit less dependant on the USD cycles (at the cost obviously to have to support the high BTC volatility).
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August 19, 2023, 11:45:25 AM |
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I talked about it in another thread. A bit paradoxical that he is pro-Bitcoin and wants to put himself in the hands of the Fed. He could do like in El Salvador they have both USD and Bitcoin as legal tender but no, it seems that he only wants to use the USD which puts him in the hands of the FED and it is not a panacea either as d5000 explains. Anyway, he has been given a lot of hype but we will have to see if he wins the October elections.
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stompix (OP)
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August 19, 2023, 02:24:56 PM |
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The first impact will be clear, double and triple-digit inflation will go away Argentina had already a period (1991-2001) when there was a de-facto dollarization during the Menem government via a currency board, an 1:1 peg to the US dollar. The problem is that this period hadn't the expected outcome. Pegging the currency of a nearly failed state that is heavily in debt to a stable one is not really the miraculous solution and is secondary and more importantly, Argentina didn't really peg the peso all the way to the dollar, that's one of the reasons for the failure as they allowed preferential rates for exports which obviously made the state lose money, and the second one was the government didn't stop printing peso and didn't stop getting in debt in us dollars. If the country is ok with no fundamental issues plaguing the economy you can peg our currency to the us or euro with no problem, even the Bulgarians are managing to use the leva with euro parity and let's not even talk about the Danish krone. Anyhow, here we're talking about completely abandoning the peso, which means the country won't have to balance the national currency to keep with the us dollar, all they will have to do si adjust their economy to match one of the other fifty states ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif) . And, to be honest right now, how it could be worse than what they have now? You can see that in both cases, Argentina and Ecuador, there was an initial boom after dollarization/currency board introduction. In Argentina, 1991, and in Ecuador, 2000. But then the growth went increasingly bumpy. Dollarization creates a higher dependency on external commerce and international financial events and gives in generall less flexibility. It's a gamble, you could have favourable outcome or not, depending on your economical structure. Argentina's post-currency-board history coincides with Ecuador's dollarization (~2000-2002) and after these years there is no clear "winner" between both if you look at economic growth. Growth can be misleading, it depends on what that growth is based on ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.talkimg.com%2Fimages%2F2023%2F08%2F19%2FMMSAZ.png&t=665&c=fBhbW_jDlZY8NQ) Ignore the last two years in Argentina's case as there is a note there that the data uses the official currency rate and not the black market one. In 2000 when one was preparing to adopt and one to renounce the peg Argentina had a 4:1 advantage in GDP per capita, now it's more like 1.2 :1. If the country was already dollarized, I think BTC adoption will grow slower. The country could go the way of El Salvador though, trying to force Bitcoin adoption to become at least a little bit less dependant on the USD cycles (at the cost obviously to have to support the high BTC volatility). [/quote
Since every news about the rates or the bonds in the US makes the BTC market go nuts also I doubt a bit this extra shielding.
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d5000
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August 19, 2023, 07:49:03 PM |
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And, to be honest right now, how it could be worse than what they have now?
I've already mentioned unemployment. In the last years, believe it or not, employment improved a lot, even compared with pre-COVID times (and it's not only due to the State growing, it's primarily private employment). Private consumption is also quite high currently (see this New York Times article about restaurants being always packed). Also, sanitary conditions have improved continuously in the last decades, like we can see with child mortality. So yeah, it could be much worse. The situation is a bit paradoxical, but only at the first glance: The high consumption may have been one of the main reasons (apart from delayed effects of COVID subsidies and its M1 explosion) which propelled the inflation from a mere 25-40% to 120%+. In the 1990s currency board Argentina, unemployment initially got better, but from 1995 on (impact Tequila crisis) rates above 10-15% were common. In 2001 the "convertibilidad" regime collapsed with 18% unemployment. I still think such a regime can work (as in Bulgaria and the Eurozone in general) but taking its time and giving the industry time and measures to adapt. However, I think the US dollar isn't perhaps the best currency for Argentina to peg its currency to, as its main trade partner is Brazil, the US is third (if taking EU countries as separate entities). My personal "advice" (if I had any power or legitimacy to do that ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif) ) to Argentina's government would instead to be to advance with a Mercosur monetary union (with Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay and Bolivia). There were some very timid steps towards a creation of an Argentina/Brazil "unit of account" (like the ECU was in Europe) but almost nothing. A dollarization could close that door, which would benefit potentially all of South America, for a long time. About the GDP per capital: that graph if any shows how overvalued Argentina's currency was in the 1990s due to the still relatively high inflation rate. If any currency board/external currency adoption steps are taken then this effect would have to be avoided.
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stompix (OP)
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August 20, 2023, 04:15:29 AM |
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I've already mentioned unemployment. In the last years, believe it or not, employment improved a lot, even compared with pre-COVID times (and it's not only due to the State growing, it's primarily private employment). Private consumption is also quite high currently (see this New York Times article about restaurants being always packed). Also, sanitary conditions have improved continuously in the last decades, like we can see with child mortality. Replace Argentina with Brazil in that chart and you see the same post-COVID trend in employment, switch to Salvador and you have the same growth we can go to any other country and depending how long ago they've opened their economy the same happened, Europe is breaking records over records in this metric. As for consumption, of course, there is consumption, because with the money you get on the 1st you can get 100 pizzas and by the 31st you can get only 80. It's private consumption driven out of fear, not out of how good things are and how much money they have. Spend now, worry later: no point saving in inflation-stricken ArgentinaExactly what you were saying: Packed restaurants, long lines outside the theatre, concerts that sell out in hours – Argentines with purchasing power are responding with a frenzy of consumption in the face of soaring inflation. ~For many, the situation means rushing to the shops as soon as possible after pay day to buy groceries before prices increase. My personal "advice" (if I had any power or legitimacy to do that ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif) ) to Argentina's government would instead to be to advance with a Mercosur monetary union (with Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay and Bolivia). There were some very timid steps towards a creation of an Argentina/Brazil "unit of account" (like the ECU was in Europe) but almost nothing. A dollarization could close that door, which would benefit potentially all of South America, for a long time. So, trying to peg your useless currency to other currencies that might be just as bad and that have continuously lost ground against the USD could be better... You know Argentina and Brazil tried to drop the dollar in 2009, right? Why do they still carry plans on making the trade in peso and reals and other currency somewhere in the middle then? ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif) Because just as Russia realized when it got paid in rupees that when you get paid in shitcoins there is nobody else wanting you shitcoins! These agreements are just like a bounty campaign here! They can't afford to pay their users in BTC so they pay them in their shitty tokens they can print endlessly, and once the payments are made they drop like a fly as everyone receiving those shitcoins runs to the exchange to convert them into either BTC or USDT. Just how people in Argentina are doing now with their peso or Indians with their rupees or Rusian with their ruble! ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif)
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August 20, 2023, 08:01:39 AM |
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The bad thing I see with this thread is that since it is a serious one in which you have to have some knowledge to comment, it has not received many responses and will probably die for lack of them in a short time. I don't know if d5000 knows first hand the situation in Argentina or South America in general, as I see that he posts on the German and Spanish local boards. In any case, if Milei wins, he intends to turn the country upside down, a country that had the highest GDP per capita in the world more than a century ago, a country where people emigrated in search of opportunities and a better life. By handing out subsidies and creating large layers of the population dependent on them has ended up in the disaster it is today. It is the result of Peronism. I understand that taking the power of the printer away from Argentine politicians would force them to have to balance income and expenses because they could not simply print more, but I wonder: supposing Milei won in October and carried this out, would it cost much for an incoming Peronist president after Milei to re-create a local currency? I don't think so.
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August 20, 2023, 09:43:18 AM |
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The bad thing I see with this thread is that since it is a serious one in which you have to have some knowledge to comment, it has not received many responses and will probably die for lack of them in a short time. I don't know if d5000 knows first hand the situation in Argentina or South America in general, as I see that he posts on the German and Spanish local boards. In any case, if Milei wins, he intends to turn the country upside down, a country that had the highest GDP per capita in the world more than a century ago, a country where people emigrated in search of opportunities and a better life. By handing out subsidies and creating large layers of the population dependent on them has ended up in the disaster it is today. It is the result of Peronism. I understand that taking the power of the printer away from Argentine politicians would force them to have to balance income and expenses because they could not simply print more, but I wonder: supposing Milei won in October and carried this out, would it cost much for an incoming Peronist president after Milei to re-create a local currency? I don't think so. Let's see what happens in October, as you said, and what are the real changes he proposes if he eventually wins. In my country (Spain) he is being very criticised both because he is an extremist and also because he resembles Trump in some ways. Taking into account how little Trump did for crypto (even if we know now that he holds more than 2 million in Ethereum alone, according to the latest news) we still have to see how he implements the proposed changes in Argentina.
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Upgrade00
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August 20, 2023, 09:53:11 AM |
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Internal problems a country faces can only be solved by internal changes which improves the economy. Being pro Bitcoin cannot improve the standard of living of citizens or generate more jobs or improve international trade if the country does not have exports. Same way dollarization does not boost an economy.
Best case scenario it is indicative of the willingness of the candidate to adapt to moedern solutions and could mean they can equally take drastic decisions in other areas of affairs which will have telling impact on the economy.
It can also be a way of telling people what you think they want to hear. I have not followed the election long enough to know the precedent of the candidate but sometimes or everytime politicians play a psychological game to convince people they are the best man for the job..it's less of what you plan to do and more of what you've already done.
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m2017
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August 20, 2023, 10:13:35 AM |
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I talked about it in another thread. A bit paradoxical that he is pro-Bitcoin and wants to put himself in the hands of the Fed. He could do like in El Salvador they have both USD and Bitcoin as legal tender but no, it seems that he only wants to use the USD which puts him in the hands of the FED and it is not a panacea either as d5000 explains. Anyway, he has been given a lot of hype but we will have to see if he wins the October elections. Undoubtedly, this candidate is on the wave of hype and skillfully uses it, but still, he makes a good advertisement for bitcoin, not only in Argentina, but throughout the world, because this news somehow appears in the media of other countries. Whatever happens, it's all good as long as it doesn't harm the bitcoin. Question: how does this presidential candidate plan to use \ integrate btc into the economy of his country? Does he have any program on this subject, or is his love for bitcoin only empty statements about it? For everything good (bitcoin) and against everything bad (central banks) - such are his loud statements? This sounds funny: The most recent Bitcoin rally in Argentina came amid the presidential primary win by pro-Bitcoin presidential candidate Milei. After winning the primary with more than 30% of votes, Milei is now the front-runner in Argentina’s general election in October. As previously reported, Milei wants to abolish the central bank and adopt the United States dollar as Argentina’s currency. The presidential candidate also believes that Bitcoin is a reaction against “central bank scammers,” while fiat currency allows politicians to scam Argentines with inflation.
Javier Milei himself is the same politician as those whom he accuses. ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif)
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davis196
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August 20, 2023, 10:26:52 AM |
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So, this is going to be a really mindfuck moment for a lot of users - he likes Bitcoin - wants to get rid of the central bank - want to fully adopt the usd dollar, so ditching completely the pesos I don't see it as a "mindfuck moment". Bitcoin isn't suitable to become an actual currency. BTC is more of a financial asset(digital gold) than a real currency for daily use. Ditching completely a weak currency like the Argentinian peso for the US dollar seems like a reasonable move. The US dollar has it's flaws, but it's way more stable in comparison to the Argentinian peso(even though the peso was pegged to the US dollar). Having no national central bank might be better than having an irresponsible central bank. Being pro-USD and pro-Bitcoin at the same time isn't so absurd as you think. Unfortunately, most of the Bitcoin maximalists live in a "black and white" type of world, where the US dollar is seen as the root of all evil, while Bitcoin being viewed is the solution to all problems.
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d5000
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August 20, 2023, 08:03:55 PM Last edit: August 20, 2023, 08:23:19 PM by d5000 |
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Replace Argentina with Brazil in that chart and you see the same post-COVID trend in employment, switch to Salvador and you have the same growth we can go to any other country and depending how long ago they've opened their economy the same happened, Europe is breaking records over records in this metric. But are the countries (Brazil, Europe) you mention in a "crisis"? No. They're doing quite well. So is Argentina - in terms of employment. In terms of inflation it's completely another story. Here Argentina is a disaster. Basically what I want to say is that in Argentina there is a financial crisis, not so much an economic crisis. Companies are in general doing well. There's a retroalimentation between inflation and consumption. Consumption is driving inflation, and inflation is driving consumption (and capital flight). So, trying to peg your useless currency to other currencies that might be just as bad and that have continuously lost ground against the USD could be better...
I almost expected that answer ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif) But both states would need to increase fiscal discipline if they bound their currencies together. That's the main benefit of the idea. There probably would have to be criteria like the Copenhagen requirements for the Eurozone to join this area. By the way, Argentina's peso is the only currency in the region that suffered such a big devaluation in the last decade. The real is doing well (has lost 30% of its value against the dollar since 2003, most of it in two crisis including COVID, but that's not bad at all), as is the boliviano (its value has even increased in the last 20 years, it could hold well a floating peg to USD), the peso uruguayo (lost approx. 30% since 2003), and the Guaraní (lost 20% since 2003). But the advantage compared to simply adopting the dollar is if there is a regional crisis, e.g. caused by a drought or oil prices, then the currency can temporarily become weaker, to later strengthen again if relative conditions with respect to the US are more favorable. In contrast, if the US enters a crisis, it allows the countries to strengthen their currency, like it occurred to the Brazilian real in the late 2000s/early 2010s, when the BRL became itself overvalued reaching 0.6 USD (coming from 0.3) and then falling down again to 0.3 and after COVID to 0.2. Why do they still carry plans on making the trade in peso and reals and other currency somewhere in the middle then? The problem is that there is not enough coordination. The plans to "skip" the dollar were renewed in May 2023 but Brazil is obviously currently the one trying to slow down. The problem is also that when there are ideological differences between both governments these initiatives can come to a complete halt. That's definitely something which has to be improved. In any case, if Milei wins, he intends to turn the country upside down, a country that had the highest GDP per capita in the world more than a century ago, a country where people emigrated in search of opportunities and a better life. By handing out subsidies and creating large layers of the population dependent on them has ended up in the disaster it is today. It is the result of Peronism. That's a very simplified point of view (although Milei is trying to install it in the discussion). First, Argentina had almost no population in 1900 (few millions). There was also practically no industry. The "business model" of the country in this era was to be an almost pure pure agrarian state (heavy industry appeared only in the 1920s/30s). This would be unsustainable today, as the agrarian sector needs not much labour force. Second, the big problem of Argentina is that it never sustained policies over more than 10 years. This led to a weak industrial sector. Peronist governments had its share of this problem as they often created and sustained uncompetitive economic areas, but also the military dictatorships trying to establish the pre-1930s model again in the 70s, and they failed completely. The debt crisis in the early 80s in the last years of the military government was the reason for the general Argentine debt problem which started to become massive in the 90s and then led to the collapse in 2001. But this debt problem is still the background of the current crisis: Argentina had always problems in the last decades to get external financing, so it had to very high interest rates. This led to the current situation where the central bank prints money to finance the country's fiscal deficit, and this boosts inflation. I could write entire books about this (as you suspect, I have "first hand" knowledge of the situation in AR) but let's end here ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif)
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stompix (OP)
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August 21, 2023, 05:44:34 AM |
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The bad thing I see with this thread is that since it is a serious one in which you have to have some knowledge to comment, it has not received many responses and will probably die for lack of them in a short time.
I make topics mostly to see what others think and to enjoy myself, If I see zero interest then I realize what people are interested in and how much they either care or know about something, still calling it good research. I have another bunch ready in the last few days and this is all I can do sitting 12 hours in the sun but it's a pain in the ass to get images and copy the text on a tablet for more detailed topics! ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif) I still believe that you can't screw a country more like this, and 100 years...we didn't have half of the countries currently in Europe! ![Cheesy](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cheesy.gif) Things come and go, and as you said, subsidies and freebies and gifts to keep the masses happy is one bulletproof way to make them go away. I understand that taking the power of the printer away from Argentine politicians would force them to have to balance income and expenses because they could not simply print more, but I wonder: supposing Milei won in October and carried this out, would it cost much for an incoming Peronist president after Milei to re-create a local currency? I don't think so.
Hm, honestly, no idea! I think just the next step is too complicated thinking what will happen after this with two "if" it's out of my league. Javier Milei himself is the same politician as those whom he accuses. ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) So you're saying no politicians should accuse the former leaders of corruption just because he is also a politician? If you start from the idea that they're all corrupt and they should shut up then basically you're admitting no change will ever happen and everyone that goes voting is just empowering corruption. So, trying to peg your useless currency to other currencies that might be just as bad and that have continuously lost ground against the USD could be better...
I almost expected that answer ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif) But both states would need to increase fiscal discipline if they bound their currencies together. Remind me why is Argentina in this mess in the first place. And you expect them to magically do the right thing after half of century of proving they are unwilling to do so? Wishful thinking! Why do they still carry plans on making the trade in peso and reals and other currency somewhere in the middle then? The problem is that there is not enough coordination. The plans to "skip" the dollar were renewed in May 2023 but Brazil is obviously currently the one trying to slow down. The problem is also that when there are ideological differences between both governments these initiatives can come to a complete halt. That's definitely something which has to be improved. [/quote] No, it's no ideology it's basic financial stuff. Brazil doesn't want to get paid in a currency that devaluates by the week and that no one else wants, they have a positive trade so they end with one billion worth of pesos, oh wait it's 900m, by the time you read the topic is 700million ![Cheesy](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cheesy.gif) and Argentina can't afford to buy reals as it would be the same as buying in USD, so it makes no sense. It's a copy-paste thing of what Russia and India got through and they solved it by using the UEA dirham, which, is pegged to the dollar! The irony, right?
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avikz
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August 21, 2023, 05:49:05 AM |
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So, this is going to be a really mindfuck moment for a lot of users - he likes Bitcoin - wants to get rid of the central bank - want to fully adopt the usd dollar, so ditching completely the pesos That's oxymoron! It seems Javier Milei is another puppet of America. Otherwise, no good country will ever want to replace their own currency and adopt currency from another country. That's definitely a negative but if he has won the presidential primary, that means a lot of stupid people support this fellow. Replacing currency with USD may work for smaller countries but when it comes to a country which ranks 23rd in global list, might bring disaster.
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Kakmakr
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August 21, 2023, 05:58:39 AM |
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How are you going to get rid of centralized Banking and at the same time switch to the US Dollar as your local currency? Yes, it will help them to have a more stable economy and much less volatility, but they will be a slave to the West again. (The US Dollar and the US economy are one of the most complex economies in the world, with a lot of manipulation going on in the back rooms) ![Roll Eyes](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/rolleyes.gif) The adoption of Bitcoin will not go well, with the US Dollar being used as a replacement for the Peso... citizens have a lot of sentimental feelings towards their local currency. ![Roll Eyes](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/rolleyes.gif)
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Lucius
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August 21, 2023, 02:51:57 PM |
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~snip~ Replacing currency with USD may work for smaller countries but when it comes to a country which ranks 23rd in global list, might bring disaster.
El Salvador changed its national currency to $ 20+ years ago, and as a country that is much smaller than Argentina, I don't see that this change has transformed the country economically (for the better), although we can rightly wonder what would have happened if that they didn't do it. Maybe the size of the country really makes a difference, although it seems to me that regardless of the fact that Argentina is one of the largest countries in the world, their problems are far more complex than which currency they would choose. In other words, if you don't have smart politicians who work for the good of the country, everything else is in vain.
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Hispo
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August 21, 2023, 04:16:19 PM |
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... The adoption of Bitcoin will not go well, with the US Dollar being used as a replacement for the Peso... citizens have a lot of sentimental feelings towards their local currency. ![Roll Eyes](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/rolleyes.gif) When your country has been going through several years of crippling inflation, eventually people start to replace their positive feelings and patriotism with negative feelings and seek to protect their capital with other currencies. I am from Venezuela, so I know what I am talking about, all of it comes to a point where people is willing to give up part of their culture in order not to be always checking the price of the pesos against the USD. Venezuelan economy is already dollarized in many levels, expect salaries. We ask for prices in malls and stores and we get the price in USD, not local currency. It must be the same in Argentina
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d5000
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Decentralization Maximalist
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August 21, 2023, 06:13:08 PM |
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And you expect them to magically do the right thing after half of century of proving they are unwilling to do so? Wishful thinking!
Why should it work with dollarization and not with an unified South American currency? Again, in the 1990s it worked. No, it's no ideology it's basic financial stuff. Brazil doesn't want to get paid in a currency that devaluates by the week and that no one else wants,
I wrote that already. ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif) The countries, mainly Argentina of course, would have to be well prepared and coordinate their policy a lot for such a move. But in 2018-22, there was also the hurdle of an ideologically-related "cooling down" of relation between these two countries, so that eliminated all possibilities of a coordination. There was Covid, too. As of 2023, Brazil of course wouldn't take further steps in the short term if they don't know who wins this year's election. If Bullrich or Massa win (together their parties have ~60% of the vote, even if they're ideologically strongly opposed, at least when they're campaigning ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif) ), however, I'd expect further steps in this direction, as both want to strengthen Mercosur. We ask for prices in malls and stores and we get the price in USD, not local currency. It must be the same in Argentina
In supermarkets, prices are displayed in pesos in Argentina. 100-150% inflation doesn't mean that prices change every day, but every couple of weeks you can expect a 10-20% increase. In some sectors, mainly real estate and upper-class tourist accomodation (hotels, cabins ...) you may find prices in dollars. However, dollarized prices were much more common in the early 2000s. For example, when MercadoLibre started, they had the option to use prices in dollars, and electronics were almost all priced in USD. I don't know if this was forbidden but now it's much less common, even if inflation was much lower then. It seems Javier Milei is another puppet of America. At the contrary, several US politicians and also IMF functionaries have already expressed they oppose that move, see this La Nación article.
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DrBeer
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Payment Gateway Allows Recurring Payments
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August 21, 2023, 06:35:32 PM |
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It's a bit of an odd position to be in, a potential leader. Bitcoin is cool of course - but it doesn't stabilize the economy. Dollarization, with the replacement of domestic currency with the U.S. dollar - well, we can allow it as a solution, for some stabilization period. But it does not solve the essence - the problems in the economy. Probably it is necessary to reform the economy, fight corruption, develop high margin sectors of the economy, and similar actions aimed at solving the problem. But do not emphasize solutions that "hide" the problems.... Moreover, everyone understands perfectly well that they will only temporarily hide the problems. It is like trying to treat a disease by hiding the manifestations of the disease, instead of treating the cause of the disease itself.
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