in two completely full 100 slots raffles the chances should be (1/100)*(1/100) = 1/10,000 = 0,01%
however, the previous raffle had 39 entries, this raffle had even only 28 entries: (1/39)*(1/28) = 1/1,092 = 0,0915%
however again, out of these 39 and 28 entries respectively, 19 times the same numbers were picked in both raffles - I'm not sure, but my considerations lead to two different arithmetic operations (dunno if any of both is correct):
- (1/39)*(1/19) = 1/741 = 0,1349%
or
- (1/(39-19))*(1/(28-19)) = 1/180 = 0,5555%
and however once again, the real winning numbers have been 20 and 87, but were not picked by anyone, the blockchain had to reroll 1 and 3 times respectively to get to #42 in each raffle. so I guess the real correct calculations would probably disclose a completely different result
Thanks for crunching them numbers ! Its interesting to see what the universe's odds are for any type of gamble.
Please join us in the new raffle posted here!>>>
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5464751.0