Challenging the lows, 25.5k and lower possible break here

[STT]

Wondering what peoples sentiment for 2023 is right now, negative, neutral sideways or still aspiring higher.


I see the price challenging the lows of last week here, we achieved 24k as a low but the majority of the price action remained above 25.5k.  That resolution in the sell was some slight positive, a sell off can reverse but it appears to be failing in that resolve right now.
  Right this moment we are trading and threatening a wider move.     How do we finish 2023 if this move isnt finished with just resolving purely back to March prices.



Here is the price action on 15m bars in last few hours, this does appear some attempt lower.   I think we observed this before also, main markets close negative sentiment (repeatedly)and after hours approaching the Asia open around midnight forum hours the price becomes weakened.  Failing to hold here does make me think of 25k or lower could be the wider range required to establish strength.

I've forgotten how to do a poll, maybe its a mod only thing now.  But I'm wondering, Going forward into the 2023 finishing price action and sentiment & using 25k as a pivot:

BTC

• Positive
• Neutral
  
• Negative

[Quick follow up chart.   Lets see it resolve higher and prove me wrong, of course Im fine with being wrong lol.   I do think we have weakness just look at the volume but never look at any wider picture just once, its worth discussion imo ]

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[dansus021]

Just opinion maybe Bitcoin cannot make a new lower and go to positive at 27-28K level again and going to side away again after that but since next month is September and usually a bleed month for bitcoin Im not sure its going to above 30K level

[adaseb]

A few hours back I think they tried to run the weekly lows but failed. Maybe there is less leverage now than before or it’s a stop hunt and we will go higher.

We had a massive OI change and I just don’t think there are any longs to liquidate. We will most likely chop around and break next month or some positive news happens and next month we will be at $30k again. Now the liquidity is just awful.

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

OP, despite the drop in the price of Bitcoin, I am still bullish about Bitcoin towards the end of the year. It doesn't matter whether the price drop is so bad, but the market recovery can sometimes be very quick too. Despite the fact that Bitcoin is currently in the #26k zone, it can also quickly spike to $30k+ in just a week or less (I guess), and I believe that it's possible that towards the end of 2023, we can see Bitcoin around $40k-$50k.

[franky1]

the speculative market vs (off market underlying value) bottoms

2021: $30k ($10k)
2022: $15.5k ($15k)
2023Q1: $16k ($15k)
2023Q2: $21k ($17.5k)
2023Q3: $25k* ($20k) [*so far]


outside the speculative market. there is a underlying value and a top premium window of infrustructure which the markets speculate inbetween but do not pass..

we are currently in a value-premium window of $20k-$140k window which markets can speculate between(based on hashpower and real world economic costs of tops and bottoms potentials)

you can calculate this value of the window by looking at the most efficient cost effective mining on the planet.(the least cost to acquire bitcoin privately/wholesale on the planet no one wants to sell below)

you can calculate this premium of the window by looking at the most INefficient mining on the planet.(the most costly to acquire bitcoin privately/wholesale on the planet, where  no one wants bother mining for or buying above)

as long as we dont have a massive hashrate crash competition or "free energy" boom, the underlying value will keep supporting the market to not go back to pre 2023 levels of market price(sub $20k)

[fzkto]

A few hours back I think they tried to run the weekly lows but failed. Maybe there is less leverage now than before or it’s a stop hunt and we will go higher.

We had a massive OI change and I just don’t think there are any longs to liquidate. We will most likely chop around and break next month or some positive news happens and next month we will be at $30k again. Now the liquidity is just awful.

Bitcoin has been showing a drop in price for a few months now. Now we can say that the end of the month is coming soon and probably August will be in the red too. If the current support is broken, then we might see the previous bottom.

[348Judah]

Wondering what peoples sentiment for 2023 is right now, negative, neutral sideways or still aspiring higher.

With this current dump, we should not loose attention thinking we may be going on this for long or it keeps going more bearish, bitcoin as at the time is expected to run bullish, this may not come in as fast as possible anytime sooner but we could actually have an experience of it little by little, this is a time where bitcoin market should not go dip to this far than we expect to reach around $40,000 or more, but little more time will prove how realistic this could be.

[eightdots]

OP, despite the drop in the price of Bitcoin, I am still bullish about Bitcoin towards the end of the year. It doesn't matter whether the price drop is so bad, but the market recovery can sometimes be very quick too. Despite the fact that Bitcoin is currently in the #26k zone, it can also quickly spike to $30k+ in just a week or less (I guess), and I believe that it's possible that towards the end of 2023, we can see Bitcoin around $40k-$50k.

For Bitcin, around 40 or 50k may be good levels. I don't expect these levels towards the end of the year, but Bitcoin always surprises us. What is important is the recovery of this decline in Bitcoin price. If it can be recovered in a short time, I would like it to come to the prices you said.

I wonder how long it will stay at what price level if the price drops further. After all, Bitcoin can suddenly increase its price.

[STT]

I agree with Frank about the bottom pricing being  a good guide maybe the best guidance for the path BTC takes.   I do think any commodity price can drop below its costs, though it should result in constriction of supply in theory.   BTC is slightly different in trying to regulate supply to match a 10 minute regular issuance, we notice this massively when demand is there and BTC supply remains quite constant.

BTC back to its range of lower 26 thousands roughly, in play since the bigger sell of about a week ago.   Right now we have been trading more positively since this sell threat was extinguished.    This is comparative, imo we remain on a tight leash till proven otherwise.
  However  point of note last 24h is weekly average caps the highest prices.   I dont expect much till we regularly can place BTC above its last 7+ days of price action, today we cannot.

[OgNasty]

Zooming out on the chart and not being familiar with the causes for the previous dumps, I would say it looks like a visit to $16K is in the books for the future. I think that’s what is scaring away buyers at the moment. However, I don’t think that’s true, but I wouldn’t want to be a trader right now. For long term holders though, this should be viewed as a good time for dollar cost averaging.

[ginsan]

Zooming out on the chart and not being familiar with the causes for the previous dumps, I would say it looks like a visit to $16K is in the books for the future. I think that’s what is scaring away buyers at the moment. However, I don’t think that’s true, but I wouldn’t want to be a trader right now. For long term holders though, this should be viewed as a good time for dollar cost averaging.

I don't even want to know why the price of BTC fell this week, because I'm more interested in finding out when the price increased significantly and that's my big difference from them. I think I agree with your opinion, when the BTC price drops, of course we only have one chance to make a purchase and for those who still expect a bigger decline, they will definitely miss the moment of buying because they are still worried.
 
Maybe in this month BTC is still struggling to break through $30k because the selling point is quite high on that wall. However, this drop was short-lived and I think the BTC Price will slowly come back up again.

I don't want to see another $16k number and hope it doesn't happen again. There's always a surprise before the halving maybe this is a surprise for those who want to buy at the dips.

[dragonvslinux]

I think it's still a bit early to assume whether the rest of the year will be bullish/bearish/neutral, but I'd say relatively neutral for now between $20K and $30K. Price needs to reclaim $28.5K in order to return bullish, which for now I find unlikely given the months of distribution that has occurred at this level. I'm otherwise not entirely bearish until the $25K lows have been taken out, then I imagine $23K will be next.

Earlier in the year I was anticipating a re-test of $23K support/accumulation level, but instead it never occurred with $25K resistance being turned into new support. However I think this level is back on the table with $30K confirmed as resistance, especially since bulls think that $25K will continue to hold while bears are waiting for $20K again, so somewhere in the middle around $23K seems more likely as a new support level.

The recent $BCOIN ETF launch otherwise didn't help, as expected, with price immediately dumping afterwards (as per always with ETF/future launches: ProShares, Bakkt, CME & CBOE). So hopefully if we can avoid any ETF approvals this year then price can probably remain relatively stable/neutral. Otherwise we could see not only $20K but a return to the lows if ETF's get approved this year. Let's hope that's not the case.

[Nrcewker]

I think this price tensions is due to the recent dip of the coin. But according to me this is just a temporary move. This is because Tesla selling huge amount of Bitcoins and hence price went down. If you start speculating on each and every incident, then it only shows that you lack patience. I am expecting that at the end of September Bitcoins will cross 30k usd and next year ATH price is must.

[bestcoins1]

I don't even want to know why the price of BTC fell this week, because I'm more interested in finding out when the price increased significantly and that's my big difference from them. I think I agree with your opinion, when the BTC price drops, of course we only have one chance to make a purchase and for those who still expect a bigger decline, they will definitely miss the moment of buying because they are still worried.

Everyone is different in seeing the moment and also in taking advantage of it and also in finding out about the causes of the frequent declines and increases in Bitcoin. You may not be a short term trader so you are not very interested in finding out why Bitcoin has decreased in price this week, because those who still like to trade with Bitcoin especially in the short term will continue to find out why Bitcoin has decreased in price besides they are looking for potential which could make Bitcoin rise again before next year.

Maybe in this month BTC is still struggling to break through $30k because the selling point is quite high on that wall. However, this drop was short-lived and I think the BTC Price will slowly come back up again.

Bitcoin price is still moving sideways and is still in the $26K range, although there are occasional bounces to the upside. But it never lasts long at this point so that the price of Bitcoin still tends to return to $26K although I personally still believe that the moment for a bigger increase is still possible to come back and happen to Bitcoin at the end of this year.

[Sim_card]

From the look of the price movement of bitcoin at $26,030,we might have a drop below 25k but I don't think it will be possible for the price to go below $24k. Next month will be a good month for bitcoin for there will hope for bitcoin price to bounce back to $30 again. I believe that the moment the price hits $30k,it will break the resistance price of $31k and move above that. I also believe that by the end of this year we will see bitcoin price at $40k because the halving will be next next April and that is a good reason for the price reach $40k.

[legendbtc]

From the look of the price movement of bitcoin at $26,030,we might have a drop below 25k but I don't think it will be possible for the price to go below $24k. Next month will be a good month for bitcoin for there will hope for bitcoin price to bounce back to $30 again. I believe that the moment the price hits $30k,it will break the resistance price of $31k and move above that. I also believe that by the end of this year we will see bitcoin price at $40k because the halving will be next next April and that is a good reason for the price reach $40k.

Why do you believe that next month will be a good month for bitcoin, what do you base it on? Because many people were also expecting and saying in August bitcoin will cross $35k but so far we are even trading at $26,000 and more likely to drop to $25k. Historically, halvings have not activated an immediate bull run, but a real bull run usually occurs 1 year after the halving. So that won't be a reason for bitcoin to rally and hit $40k before the end of the year. To do that we need big positive news.

[YOSHIE]

Wondering what peoples sentiment for 2023 is right now, negative, neutral sideways or still aspiring higher.

Because it's 2023 and I see so many experts predicting and speculating about crypto, especially Bitcoin, of course it's a little confusing for those who invest and will cause various speculations on the crypto market in general.

However, if you want to challenge the lowest Bitcoin price this year, if in my opinion Bitcoin will touch the lowest price of $ 25,401. for the year and $35,000 highs, it can be assessed from the current developments in the crypto market and last week it touched $ 25,812.68, meaning that for $ 25,401 it is most likely based on my personal speculation.

But anything can happen as we have seen before, what is certain is that all of us have our own confidence in the price of Bitcoin in the future, regardless of speculation in circulation.

[adaseb]

Earlier in the year I assumed we would have a echo bubble with bitcoin. Basically a bubble like the previous but not as large. I assumed we would hit maybe at least $35-45K. And get a blow off top. However we didn’t really get  an explosive action like I assumed.

So maybe we get one more pump and then we stall like stock market or maybe we already hit the high at $31K. Most likely we won’t know until we get closer to October. The etf most likely will be delayed and won’t have any impact until then.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

Wondering what peoples sentiment for 2023 is right now, negative, neutral sideways or still aspiring higher.

My investment horizon is from cycle to cycle, so I am positive. It is true that the price performance this cycle has been a little disappointing, and that we have been waiting a few months for the price to take off and it has not.

For the next few months it would be normal for the price to rise to around $40,000 or maybe even more, as this has happened in previous cycles, but who knows, just as this cycle has been the one with the lowest returns, we could also find ourselves with sideways to halving.

[Husires]

After the collapse of the price below $31,000, the continuation of the price below this level means more selling pressure, especially since some miners and companies need to pay off loan debts, which means that they are forced to sell instead of waiting for a longer time. all of these things make the price stable below $26,000 with the possibility that The decline continues for a longer before the price begins to easily rebound above $42,000.

Price movements are what will determine whether we will be at 21,000 or 42,000, but we will definitely not settle at 25,000 for long.