Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval Odds Rise to 75% (Bloomberg)

[GreatArkansas]

It seems what happening right now is "buy the news sell the rumors". Look what happened on the price when Grayscale things popped, the market pumped, and look at now, dumped again.
For sure a lot of people are losing money because of these kinds of news.

[yhiaali3]

Although many think this is big news, I wonder what the approval of the Spot Bitcoin ETF could add to Bitcoin in general? Just more and more speculation and price manipulation.

These large companies do not really care about adopting Bitcoin because they are essentially profitable companies and all they seek is to achieve more profits in the first place by entering new markets and the last thing they are thinking about is adopting Bitcoin.

I don't want to be pessimistic, but we must prepare to see more volatility and drama in the coming months.

[Iranus]

It seems what happening right now is "buy the news sell the rumors". Look what happened on the price when Grayscale things popped, the market pumped, and look at now, dumped again.
For sure a lot of people are losing money because of these kinds of news.

Although the SEC lost the case to Grayscale, the acceptance or rejection of the ETFs is still at the discretion of the SEC and not any other agency. So it's not surprising to me that they continue to reject all ETFs proposals, including BlackRock's, which we were most looking forward to. But what's interesting is that they delayed it until March 2024 and that's also when the halving will take place. Therefore, on social network X, many conspiracy theories have appeared claiming that the SEC is also participating in market manipulation.

[bbc.reporter]

It also appears that the odds for approval might also rise higher after September. Uncle Gary is scheduled to appear in congress and be pressured to testify on what he is doing in office, being a regulator through enforcement without legal clarity.

The skeptical me is thinking that Blackrock is starting to use their political connections to force uncle Gary to sign the applications on the ETF before the end of 2023 hehehehe.



In what could be yet another tough face off with lawmakers, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chair Gary Gensler looks set to testify before two separate committees of the US Congress in September 2023. These hearings come at the back of the historic XRP lawsuit Summary Judgment and the Grayscale spot Bitcoin ETF lawsuit victory, both of which are huge setbacks for the US SEC during the Gensler regime.

Source https://coingape.com/us-sec-gary-gensler-testify-crypto-news/

[tbct_mt2]

It seems what happening right now is "buy the news sell the rumors". Look what happened on the price when Grayscale things popped, the market pumped, and look at now, dumped again.
For sure a lot of people are losing money because of these kinds of news.

It is never wrong and the market repeats its many years. They react too fast with news and don't spend enough time to sit down, step back and think deeper a bit. That news about Grayscale lawsuit win against SEC does not directly lead to an approval of a Bitcoin Spot ETF. If they are calm enough, they will realize it.

Although the SEC lost the case to Grayscale, the acceptance or rejection of the ETFs is still at the discretion of the SEC and not any other agency. So it's not surprising to me that they continue to reject all ETFs proposals, including BlackRock's, which we were most looking forward to. But what's interesting is that they delayed it until March 2024 and that's also when the halving will take place. Therefore, on social network X, many conspiracy theories have appeared claiming that the SEC is also participating in market manipulation.

The win of Grayscale brings some hope for community but SEC are trying to delay their announcement on approval or rejection of Bitcoin Spot ETFs.

There are some important scheduled days to look out. Pay your attention in middle of October this year for more events or dramas from SEC.

[adaseb]

Today the first 3 etfs were delayed, it was basically off by a few minutes for each but then there was nothing for like an hour or so for the blackrock etf. So people assumed since they weren’t delayed then they must be approved. But eventually they were also delayed.

And the market actually was spooked because it sold off on that event which we knew was quite common, an bitcoin etf getting delayed as usual. No idea why people shorted on the news which we all knew would happen.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

It seems what happening right now is "buy the news sell the rumors". Look what happened on the price when Grayscale things popped, the market pumped, and look at now, dumped again.
For sure a lot of people are losing money because of these kinds of news.

That's what I thought when I saw the price rise as soon as I heard the news. That there would be people buying just as the rally was ending, thinking that this was going to start a non stop rally, when there would soon be a dump.

Although many think this is big news, I wonder what the approval of the Spot Bitcoin ETF could add to Bitcoin in general? Just more and more speculation and price manipulation.

<...>

I don't want to be pessimistic, but we must prepare to see more volatility and drama in the coming months.

Probably something similar happened in 2021 and 2022 with leveraged positions, which help to rise faster but make them fall faster as well. They put bitcoin in a financial casino, moving it further away from being a day-to-day P2P payment system.

It is a question WHEN, not YES/ NO question. I agree with you that Bitcoin Spot EFT will be approved in the USA. People are only speculating when it will be approved a first time.

I agree.

[fruktik]

We have to wait and see what the impact of a spot etf approval in the U.S will be, it could attract institutional investors and take the price of BTC high, which will be good for speculators; but i'll still not call it a "win" for BTC in itself, because i can't recommend people to buy BTC through etf's that they don't control, the same way i'll never recommend storing BTC's in centralized exchanges.

After many mistakes with recommendations, I'd rather stand on the sidelines and not give them anymore. Why should I give another reason to be looked at as a swindler? Let them decide what is best for people.
The other day I was asked about the ETF, but I pretended that I was no longer interested in it. He replied that they would look into this issue on their own and make a decision in the same way.
I have an assumption such that they can play from the opposite. That is, when everyone is waiting for a price increase, but the opposite will happen. You need to somehow spread the crowd for money. Isn't that what big players do?

[OgNasty]

I don’t know who makes those odds or where they’re getting their info from, but to me it’s always been a question of when and not if. It’s been clear for quite some time now that crypto is going to stick around as a new asset class and investors have been hungry for ways to gain exposure in their portfolios. I think it happens before next summer almost certainly.

[pooya87]

If so, I don't think SEC actually had anything to do with it.

SEC is still a government agency not an independent entity, so it should technically follow the same attitude US government has towards companies such as BlackRock. My argument is that this fact will affect their decision regarding approval of the ETF.

[fillippone]

Balchunas and Seyffart's optimism is based on solid knowledge of the industry.
In addition to that, some insiders, or someone who used to be an insider, share this optimism:


Bitcoin ETF “Approval Is Inevitable”: Ex-US SEC Chair Jay Clayton

Jay Clayton, the former Chair of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) expressed confidence on the probability of the first spot Bitcoin ETF product getting approved in the United States. He said the retail investors are willing to gain access to the cryptocurrency while the large institutions with surveillance mechanisms like Blackrock want to provide the product to the retail investors.

My body is ready.

[kryptqnick]

It's good to hear that the court wasn't convinced on how Bitcoin ETF is somehow less safe to investors than Bitcoin Futures. I thought the SEC simply doesn't want to regulate Bitcoin because it doesn't see it as a security, but this court case shows a different side of the story. Perhaps the SEC's consistent rejections of ETF applications have something to do with someone lobbying them to do so because Bitcoin can be a solid competitor to traditional stocks? Of course, some funds don't care and want in on Bitcoin alongside stock markets, but surely some might feel defensive.
If a Bitcoin ETF gets approved, whether it's that of BlackRock or Grayscale, it can be a major boost of confidence in Bitcoin's future.

[Lucius]

~snip~
In any case, the only thing I wonder is the effect that the approval of an ETF in USA could have on the bitcoin price, otherwise it is ETF after all and that is not the way we want bitcoin to be adopted... so it isn't really something we want to be excited about.

If we look realistically at how an average Bitcoin investor thinks, then we don't need to look for any additional explanation as to why so much dust is being raised around this ETF. The whole thing revolves around the fact that most people are counting on BlackRock and other companies of that type to cause a big bull run, and all that remains after that is to sell BTC and take as much profit as possible.

Of course, these same people are counting on the fact that sooner or later the price will drop significantly again and that they will be able to repeat the whole process again, but the question is whether history will repeat itself with such big players in the game.

What should also not be forgotten is the position expressed by BlackRock regarding possible forks, and this opens up a completely new dimension in terms of how they think about it - which leads to the conclusion that at some point they may even try a fork of their own.

[zasad@]

~snip~
In any case, the only thing I wonder is the effect that the approval of an ETF in USA could have on the bitcoin price, otherwise it is ETF after all and that is not the way we want bitcoin to be adopted... so it isn't really something we want to be excited about.

If we look realistically at how an average Bitcoin investor thinks, then we don't need to look for any additional explanation as to why so much dust is being raised around this ETF. The whole thing revolves around the fact that most people are counting on BlackRock and other companies of that type to cause a big bull run, and all that remains after that is to sell BTC and take as much profit as possible.

Of course, these same people are counting on the fact that sooner or later the price will drop significantly again and that they will be able to repeat the whole process again, but the question is whether history will repeat itself with such big players in the game.

What should also not be forgotten is the position expressed by BlackRock regarding possible forks, and this opens up a completely new dimension in terms of how they think about it - which leads to the conclusion that at some point they may even try a fork of their own.

A spot ETF is convenient in many ways because certified organizations will be responsible for storing bitcoins, and large investors will have access to the market.
The SEC has spent many years closing the financial floodgates to prevent money from flowing into the cryptocurrency market, and with the opening of the spot ETF, a huge hole is opening. lol.

[fillippone]

JP Morgan is bullish on an ETF approval:

JPMorgan says SEC would likely be forced to approve spot bitcoin ETFs following Grayscale's win

Grayscale’s win implies that the SEC would have to retroactively withdraw its previous approval of futures-based bitcoin ETFs in order to defend its denial of Grayscale’s proposal of converting its bitcoin trust into an ETF, but such a move would be “very disruptive and embarrassing for the SEC” and appears unlikely, JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in a note on Friday. Therefore, "it looks more likely that the SEC would be forced to approve the spot bitcoin ETF applications that are still pending from several asset managers, including that from Grayscale," the analysts said.

Let's hope so and touch wood.
Panigirtzoglou has a poor track record on Bitcoin predictions!

[pawel7777]

JP Morgan is bullish on an ETF approval:
(...)

From a logical point of view, it almost seems inevitable, as SEC doesn't really have any proper grounds for not approving spot BTC ETFs, but then again, they've already demonstrated (i.e. in Gensler's senate hearings) that they don't care too much about logic or about their reputation - so who knows. It all may boil down to whether or not they can be forced by courts to approve them.

[pawel7777]

A spot ETF is convenient in many ways because certified organizations will be responsible for storing bitcoins, and large investors will have access to the market.
The SEC has spent many years closing the financial floodgates to prevent money from flowing into the cryptocurrency market, and with the opening of the spot ETF, a huge hole is opening. lol.

Exactly. I wouldn't call it a "hole", it's more of a double door that SEC will have no choice but to open wide for all kinds of investors. That WILL have a positive effect on Bitcoin's price, the question is how big. Estimates vary, I think CoinDesk estimated a few months back, that approval(s) could bring in an extra $30 billion to the market.

[BenCodie]

Bloomberg’s Balchunas noted that the 75% odds are connected to a spot Bitcoin ETF approval this year. However, he added that those odds would increase to 95% by the end of 2024. Moreover, he stated that the “unanimity and decisiveness of the ruling were beyond expectations,” leaving the SEC in a difficult place.

Is this increase to 95℅ by the end of 2024, meaning that there are more legal/regulatory battles to go? We need a timeline of everything that is needed to achieve the ETF goal. End of 2024 seems prolonged....it does, however, make perfect sense in line with the having cycle.

Ultimately, the oddsmakers noted that the SEC’s defeat is a sign of increased difficulty facing the regulator. Specifically stating that they “will struggle to justify further denials as it faces deals, negative PR, and Hashdex’s novel approach.” Eventually, it is ever more likely that this year will see the very first spot Bitcoin ETF approved for operations in the United States.

Good. They deserve the difficulty, after being a bully for so many decades. SEC failing against crypto = freedom restoration for crypto businesses, we want that.

[fillippone]

Gensler will have to be testimonies in US Congress twice this September. He will have to come to Congress with lot of fear like a latest time he came there.

This will be extremely interesting.
Gensler is of course pro bitcoin, but has some sponsors in Washington that are not so happy about this. Now the federal court has done him the favour of putting him against the wall. He will only have to surrender and approve the ETF: “What could I have done? The court ordered it to me!”. I can almost see him say to Sen. Warren.
The only point now is he needs to safeguard the SEC, as an institution, against a too rapid complete turnaround as it would mine his credibility. He basically needs an exit strategy (unless he already has one).

[suzanne5223]

Gensler will have to be testimonies in US Congress twice this September. He will have to come to Congress with lot of fear like a latest time he came there.

This will be extremely interesting.
Gensler is of course pro bitcoin, but has some sponsors in Washington that are not so happy about this. Now the federal court has done him the favour of putting him against the wall. He will only have to surrender and approve the ETF: “What could I have done? The court ordered it to me!”. I can almost see him say to Sen. Warren.
The only point now is he needs to safeguard the SEC, as an institution, against a too rapid complete turnaround as it would mine his credibility. He basically needs an exit strategy (unless he already has one).

I don't know about Gensler stance about Bitcoin but I read that he once applied for the role of Binance advisor which shows that he could be pro Bticoin as you said.
However, I notice most of these people are always against BTC when in the official and later support BTC after they leave office.
Having said that, we shouldn't rejoice much about the GrayScale winning against the US SEC because they will always delay the Bitcoin ETF by all means.