imagining what he will be like the last halving

[albert0bsd]

Well most of us are waiting the next bitcoin halving and speculate about how it will affect the network, mining, fees, and prices

But I wonder how the bitcoin environment will be in years of the last halving. (I know i am not going to live to see that but in any case i want to dream a little with that).

So, picture this: It's near the year 2134 or 2138, and we've experienced the last-ever bitcoin halving. At this point, miners are going to get only 1 Satoshi per mined block, plus transaction fees. It's a far cry from the current scenario and for the next period of 4 years only 210000 new satoshis will be created. That made me think that we need to start trying to save every satoshi available.

For miners, it's safe to assume that transaction fees will go through the roof. As the mining reward shrinks, miners will need to get creative to keep their operations profitable. They might start looking into greener, more sustainable energy sources to cut costs and invest in better mining hardware to maximize their returns.

On the other hand, for folks like us, the incentive to spend our bitcoins may decrease. With rewards diminishing and fees on the rise, there's a stronger argument for holding onto our digital treasure unless it's absolutely necessary. Think of it as a futuristic savings account where every satoshi saved feels like a victory.

In the end, none of us may live to see the year 2138, but it's exciting to imagine how the world of bitcoin will evolve after the last halving. The balance between mining rewards and fees, along with the motivations of miners and users, will surely transform. Who knows what kind of innovative solutions and changes are in store? Until then, let's keep dreaming and HODLing those precious satoshis!

What are your thoughts about the future of bitcoin in times of the last halving ?

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[tbct_mt2]

Well most of us are waiting the next bitcoin halving and speculate about how it will affect the network, mining, fees, and prices

In fact, halving does not affect Bitcoin transaction fee too much.

Bitcoin average transaction fee (All time).

The chart shows Bitcoin transaction fee usually is not too expensive. Halving does not affect it as the chart shows but some hypes like Ordinals BRC20 a few months ago, made transaction fee on Bitcoin network became expensive months ago. It did not last too long and transaction fee on Bitcoin network drops back to its normal level.

[taufik123]

In fact, halving does not affect Bitcoin transaction fee too much.

Bitcoin average transaction fee (All time).

The chart shows Bitcoin transaction fee usually is not too expensive. Halving does not affect it as the chart shows but some hypes like Ordinals BRC20 a few months ago, made transaction fee on Bitcoin network became expensive months ago. It did not last too long and transaction fee on Bitcoin network drops back to its normal level.

There are some who argue that it does not really affect Bitcoin transaction fees, but some also argue that transactions will increase when Halving occurs.
This only happens in the short term and will soon recover.

And as you said, transaction fees were quite high during the BRC20 Ordinal hype a few months ago.
I had felt the increase when I wanted to send bitcoin and was charged about $30 in one transaction and the time it took to be confirmed was also quite long.

But that's still nothing compared to the transaction fees that occurred in 2018 which reached $55 and the highest in 2021 was around $62.

[terrific]

Miners don't need to be creative during that time for them to keep on profiting from their miners. They'll stay and will still get paid to mine for the confirmation of transactions.

What are your thoughts about the future of bitcoin in times of the last halving ?

I am thinking about how many zeros (not decimals) it will be for the price of Bitcoin if ever it's still alive by that time.

[1miau]

But I wonder how the bitcoin environment will be in years of the last halving. (I know i am not going to live to see that but in any case i want to dream a little with that).

It's still far away from now and so much will change in over 100 years, so we just don't know and just can judge from a current perspective with many if's and could's.

So, picture this: It's near the year 2134 or 2138, and we've experienced the last-ever bitcoin halving. At this point, miners are going to get only 1 Satoshi per mined block, plus transaction fees. It's a far cry from the current scenario and for the next period of 4 years only 210000 new satoshis will be created. That made me think that we need to start trying to save every satoshi available.

Yes, block rewards won't play any major role anymore because Bitcoin is designed that way.
Even around 2100, block rewards won't play any major role anymore because rewards will be very tiny.


We are still early

I believe transaction fees will carry Bitcoin way sooner than we might expect.
And while more people will use Bitcoin, it won't be a problem to reward miners mostly from transaction fees.

What are your thoughts about the future of bitcoin in times of the last halving ?

As a conclusion, I believe the last halving doesn't matter much. It's just a symbolic milestone of Bitcoin.  

[vapourminer]

the only halfing that mattered was the 1st.. after that happened we all now know it works; the rest is just math. no surprises.

[stompix]

For miners, it's safe to assume that transaction fees will go through the roof.

No, it's not!
Miners don't dictate the fees as a bank does, clients choose how much they are willing to pay for it.
That's why with the same block reward we had days of fees of 1sat/b and of 200sat/b.
Nobody is going to pay $1000 worth of BTC for a tx when buying a $40 pizza.

They might start looking into greener, more sustainable energy sources to cut costs and invest in better mining hardware to maximize their returns.

Of all the fillings I've read coming from mining companies that are forced to release data, nothing was able to beat Marathon Group Beowulf coal powerplant costs at 2.10 cents/kwh. Sustainable energy doesn't mean cheap energy!

On the other hand, for folks like us, the incentive to spend our bitcoins may decrease. With rewards diminishing and fees on the rise, there's a stronger argument for holding onto our digital treasure unless it's absolutely necessary.

Lighting Network!

[m2017]

In the next topic, it was asked whether small buyers should rely on bitcoin. Your post provides an answer to this question. If in 2134 or 2138 year miners were only getting 1 sat. for every block they mined, then today's small buyers with a couple of tens or hundreds of satoshi would be millionaires.

So, picture this: It's near the year 2134 or 2138, and we've experienced the last-ever bitcoin halving. At this point, miners are going to get only 1 Satoshi per mined block, plus transaction fees. It's a far cry from the current scenario and for the next period of 4 years only 210000 new satoshis will be created. That made me think that we need to start trying to save every satoshi available.

Actually, that's right. This was the case in previous years. A couple of bitcoins seemed like a mere trifle, and now these are already impressive amounts. The same will happen with satoshi. Now it costs almost nothing, but in the future, it will become difficult for many. If I were a bitcoin-hater, I would still spend a couple of tens of bucks for a few satoshi and put it in my wallet and keep it for a very long time, forgetting for years. If my expectations are not justified, then the losses are small, but if they are justified, then even a couple of satoshi can pleasantly surprise in the future.

On the other hand, for folks like us, the incentive to spend our bitcoins may decrease. With rewards diminishing and fees on the rise, there's a stronger argument for holding onto our digital treasure unless it's absolutely necessary. Think of it as a futuristic savings account where every satoshi saved feels like a victory.

In the future, there may be an incentive to pay in bitcoin. It is never known what the BTC-community will invent and in what direction it will move, but in any case, saving some bitcoin/satoshi will benefit the holders.

If the forum survives until 2134-2138, then our dreams and discussions about bitcoin and the last halving will become historical artifacts.

[Honyek]

l don't think that transaction fee will increase all that as a result of the halving, for the reality that it has happened before like in the 2016 and 2020, after halving and not quite long after the increase, everything returned to almost normal. If there is too much increase in transaction fee, a lot of people will be forced to leave the exchange concerned, and if the transaction fee is too high generally, more people will be forced to leave depending on the gain one encounters at the end of it all.

[Faisal2202]

An interesting topic you have started here. I consider myself the king of imagination world but its an obvious thing that my imaginative thoughts might be of no importance or to be liked by other and same goes for me. But still, in my imagination, till 2040 BTC will have alternative, or such unique developments that will make the whole scenario look as a normal scenario. Mean till then the inflation will be to the Mars and prices of everything will be 100x from now. But still people will be living and to them all of that money is nothing. For example millennials can relate this. To them 100$ were a lot of money back in there time but that same $100 will be of $1 worth at 2040.

But seriously, we should enjoy the moments we have and get benefit from the features of BTC while we have the time. To be honest I still think we are so early in adopting the BTC as if we compare ourselves with the future people's of 2040 then we will realize that we really are early adopters.

[Eternad]

What are your thoughts about the future of bitcoin in times of the last halving ?

I am thinking about how many zeros (not decimals) it will be for the price of Bitcoin if ever it's still alive by that time.

I’m curious about this too since transaction fee is fixed in sats value while it’s equivalent value in fiat will grow exponentially in future due to the price discovery of Bitcoin.

I doubt people will still use Bitcoin if the fee will grow more zero in fiat value since this is not economical. Maybe there will be some adjustment in the future the amount of transaction fee in sats in proportion with the fiat value.

[DVlog]

If a financial system works well for a hundred years that is not bad at all. In the meantime, technological advances will bring something new that can do even better. Technology is always evolving and our economy as well. There was an era when people traded with gold then came fiat currencies Now it is time for digital currencies. Who knows what lies in the future? Maybe by that time, people will trade with stored energy.

[teosanru]

I think until that time bitcoin would have been detached from the concept of halving and bullishness. Bitcoin will become cyclical and it's bull run would come from some other thing than halving. But yes it'll be interesting to see a scenario where there won't be any more supply reduction. Will people still feel bitcoin to be appreciating if this happens.

[ZAINmalik75]

In my imagination, that time will be last time people care about BTC I think because if halving stops I mean to say if mining stops then the POW mechanism will be of no use at that time because then miners has nothing to work on. This seems so easy to imagine the future but still no one can really predict what will happen at that time.

What if Satoshi put some work or mechanism there that at the end of halving he came and said here are more BTC to mine. I know technically that's not possible but hey we are imagining here.

Miners don't need to be creative during that time for them to keep on profiting from their miners. They'll stay and will still get paid to mine for the confirmation of transactions.

You are right, because the scarcity and other features of BTC has proved that it is a great hedge against inflation which means in current era inflation is so higher than then the inflation which was in 2010. But still the deflationary nature of BTC still made profit to all bit coiners. It indicates that, at the last halving miners will still make profit and who knows till then what type of green energy sources will be discovered or invented.

[Sim_card]

Miners will benefit from transaction fee to keep the network running,because there will be no more bitcoin to mine. The halving does play any significant role on transaction fee.

What are your thoughts about the future of bitcoin in times of the last halving ?

The whales and private investors with a good significant amount of bitcoin will be the wealthiest in the world

[darkangel11]

Well most of us are waiting the next bitcoin halving and speculate about how it will affect the network, mining, fees, and prices

In fact, halving does not affect Bitcoin transaction fee too much.

Bitcoin average transaction fee (All time).

The chart shows Bitcoin transaction fee usually is not too expensive. Halving does not affect it as the chart shows but some hypes like Ordinals BRC20 a few months ago, made transaction fee on Bitcoin network became expensive months ago. It did not last too long and transaction fee on Bitcoin network drops back to its normal level.

Your chart is in fact proving you wrong. Take a look at the average transaction fee in stable periods, for instance 2018-2019 and 2022-2023 and you'll see the fee has doubled. Bull markets produce extreme fees, so it's easier to look at bear market years and at this period of bitcoin's cycle the fee is higher every time.
It's also important to add that we aren't talking about the next 10 years but OP is talking about a 100 years time. If we can see the fees going 3x in the low volatility periods over the course of 10 years, it will probably keep happening as we move forward.

[Doan9269]

how many bitcoin are there left from the ones mined already, we can have a look on this statistics regarding the blocks mined and the ones left, i know that we are gradually getting there, but it may be obvious that not all of us would have waited till then to witness the last mined block, what do you think would have been the fate of those who will waited until this very last moment, there's still alot of future opportunities yet to be unfolded with bitcoin if we invest and hodl.

Stats on bitcoin
https://twitter.com/AltcoinDailyio/status/1696401685961421134?t=eB3CngHCAa3q6X2hAbjqiA&s=19

[BlackHatCoiner]

The problem will become much more apparent than it currently is, much, much sooner than in 2140. In 20 years from now, there will be less than 50 thousand bitcoin left to enter circulation. The block reward will be less than 0.2 BTC, and a four-years later, even less than half of 0.1. Transaction fees will be the main source of income long before 2140, and perhaps even before 2040. Bitcoin will remain experimental until then. In practice, there will be people transacting, but there's a bet here: There have to be much more than they currently are, and the median fee must rise either.

That means, network dependent on second layers. And as per my experience goes, they don't work quite well yet.

[Ale88]

But I wonder how the bitcoin environment will be in years of the last halving. (I know i am not going to live to see that but in any case i want to dream a little with that).

So, picture this: It's near the year 2134 or 2138, and we've experienced the last-ever bitcoin halving. At this point, miners are going to get only 1 Satoshi per mined block, plus transaction fees. It's a far cry from the current scenario and for the next period of 4 years only 210000 new satoshis will be created. That made me think that we need to start trying to save every satoshi available.

For miners, it's safe to assume that transaction fees will go through the roof. As the mining reward shrinks, miners will need to get creative to keep their operations profitable. They might start looking into greener, more sustainable energy sources to cut costs and invest in better mining hardware to maximize their returns.

I don't think we need to wait for the very last halving, simply in 2048 the reward will be approx 0.0488, and 2048 means only 25 years from now, and that looks like a small reward, at today's value we're talking of approx $1,300. Regarding the fees it wouldn't make any sense to increase them because people would simply use bitcoin less and less at that point so it could became a payment system only for the rich people.

[nakamura12]

Well most of us are waiting the next bitcoin halving and speculate about how it will affect the network, mining, fees, and prices

In fact, halving does not affect Bitcoin transaction fee too much.

Bitcoin average transaction fee (All time).

The chart shows Bitcoin transaction fee usually is not too expensive. Halving does not affect it as the chart shows but some hypes like Ordinals BRC20 a few months ago, made transaction fee on Bitcoin network became expensive months ago. It did not last too long and transaction fee on Bitcoin network drops back to its normal level.

That is true and the other reason where it will affect the transaction fee is when there are lots of transactions going on like aandn attack where people will have to pay more fees in order for their transactions get confirmed faster rather than waiting for days or even more than a week then the fees will increase just like what happened before when the mempool is congested not long ago.