[Discussion] Bitcoin Spot ETFs

[Lucius]

Bitcoin, the protocol, will stay decentralized even if we have a Bitcoin ETF. It's just that a part of the supply will be held in centralized custody.

Isn't it the same today, considering that we have millions of BTC that are under the control of CEX and various online wallets? What is changing is that the number of BTC that will now be in custody storage will increase even more, which means that the biggest risk will be in saving them from hacking.

Apart from that, I read something interesting in WO today ->

One more thing that really hammers home #NYKNYC
    
The Sponsor and the Trustee:
- are not liable for any loss of bitcoin occurring prior to the delivery of bitcoin to the Bitcoin Custodian or Prime Broker, as applicable, or after the delivery of bitcoin by the Bitcoin Custodian or Prime Broker, as applicable (and for the avoidance of doubt, are not liable for the loss of bitcoin while held by the Bitcoin Custodian or Prime Broker absent gross negligence or bad faith by the Sponsor and Trustee);

So in other words, if coinbase managed to lose access to the coins, Lost PrivKey, hacked, inside job etc... "you are up shitcreek without a paddle"...

Some people simply aren't interested in the non-custodial aspect of bitcoin; they just want to comfortably hold bitcoin in their brokerage accounts without thinking about how to secure their wallets and stuff.

In other words, they are only interested in profit and don't care how they will achieve it. This is no surprise, we know that BlackRock or Fidelity are not doing anything for the benefit of Bitcoin, but to collect as much money as possible.

However, what worries me more is that BR has increasing shares in various BTC mining companies, which, along with their official position regarding a possible BTC fork, does not look very promising for the future.

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[pixie85]

Before you read, this might be fake news, because these teasers usually are, but I'll drop this here in case it isn't.

JUST IN:

SEC insider says chief Gary Gensler has told friends and advisors that he would like to gracefully extricate himself from his “personal Vietnam” by approving one or more spot Bitcoin ETFs from the major fund companies where he hopes to get a job after leaving the agency

https://twitter.com/mikealfred/status/1703465138681192814

Even if it's fake I there's going to be an approval by the end of next year with chairman Gensler or without him.

[Darker45]

Before you read, this might be fake news, because these teasers usually are, but I'll drop this here in case it isn't.

JUST IN:

SEC insider says chief Gary Gensler has told friends and advisors that he would like to gracefully extricate himself from his “personal Vietnam” by approving one or more spot Bitcoin ETFs from the major fund companies where he hopes to get a job after leaving the agency

https://twitter.com/mikealfred/status/1703465138681192814

Even if it's fake I there's going to be an approval by the end of next year with chairman Gensler or without him.

This is a joke, of course. This is fake. I mean, it's obviously fake, at least from my perspective. Gary Gensler has failed many Bitcoin supporters, but I don't think he's this dumb or naïve. There may indeed be such a thing at the back of his mind right now, but I don't see him as this stupid to whisper his embarrassing and self-serving plans and motives around. Who would do that? That's suicide. This Mike Alfred is obviously just messing around. You know, to keep yourself or your account interesting for your followers.

[michellee]

I thought that they would agree to it someday, who knows when. They still seem to want to drag out the process so that the crypto market cannot stabilize or increase and has a tendency to decline. But at some point, they will have no choice but to agree, which will be big news for the crypto market.

Maybe that will immediately make Bitcoin prices rise like crazy because it means the government has started to open up to accepting Bitcoin. If other governments welcome it by accepting Bitcoin as well, it will make Bitcoin even more popular and will be like a booster for the price of Bitcoin to rise.

But before we get there, we have to face a situation where the market looks hopeless, discouraging many people from seeing its movements. But don't worry, everything will end well.

[Lucius]

~snip~
Even if it's fake I there's going to be an approval by the end of next year with chairman Gensler or without him.

Why do you think that we will have to wait until the end of next year when there is enough time for the SEC to make a positive decision, perhaps even before the end of this year? Except for Ark, which has a deadline of January 10, 2024, all other companies will receive an answer no later than March 16, 2024, and if even then the answer is negative, all these companies in question should submit new requests very quickly, because the SEC can make its decision to be extended to a maximum of 240 days, which would mean that the ETF would not be possible even next year.

Date filed & Last possible review)

Ark/21 Shares Bitcoin Trust 5/15/23 1/10/24
Bitwise Bitcoin ETF Trust 7/18/23 3/15/24
BlackRock Bitcoin ETF Trust 7/19/23 3/16/24
VanEck Bitcoin Trust 7/19/23 3/16/24
WisdomTree Bitcoin Trust 7/19/23 3/16/24
Valkyrie Bitcoin Fund 7/19/23 3/16/24
Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF 7/19/23 3/16/24
Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust 7/19/23 3/16/24

A ninth organization, Grayscale, has filed to convert its Grayscale Bitcoin Trust into a Bitcoin Spot ETF.

[pixie85]

Why do you think that we will have to wait until the end of next year...

Because of the final deadlines that are in March 2024.

The SEC is known for delaying things and I feel like Gensler is a stubborn donkey that's going to stand on the ramparts until he gets wounded and taken away or gets relieved by a superior officer.
He wants to show the world he doesn't agree with the idea of a bitcoin ETF by voting against it for as long as he can.

I'm saying this because it's literally the same market it was a year ago and the applicants want the same thing. Gensler had enough time to get to know this market and he was against in 2021, 2022 and again delayed things in September of this year (first deadline).

[Lucius]

~snip~

He can be stubborn as much as he wants, but he still has to admit that some things have changed, and that is first of all the fact that the biggest of the biggest got involved in the race (BlackRock), and that Grayscale managed to win in court and that any further delay than what is allowed by law will not end well for the SEC.

Therefore, I believe that the preconditions have been created for such an ETF to finally be approved, and for it to be in March of next year at the latest - which again perfectly coincides with the next halving and could result in a big bull run in the months after that.

[pixie85]

^
Gensler doesn't care much about court rulings and he even said it in his recent bloomberg interview. He isn't going to respect court decisions when it comes to crypto!

I hope that you're right about this and ETFs pass this year, or in Spring of next year, but the way I see it, Gensler is going to fight it until they remove it from the chair and that opportunity will come next year if Biden loses. In such case whoever comes next will remove Gensler, which is why I said that ETFs are going to get approved by the end of 2024.

It's going to be a miracle if he approves anything next month. You'd have to threaten him or otherwise put his back against the wall to achieve such outcome.

[Lucius]

I would not agree that anyone (not even Gensler) can ignore the decisions of the courts, because the courts exist so that people can fight for their rights if they feel that they are threatened or violated.

However, I agree that the man behaves a bit strangely considering the interest he is opposing, and we know that money in that country is something that gives power, and all those companies that want something from him have more than $15 trillion under management, and if he doesn't come to his senses, I have no doubt that they will find a way to remove him from the position he is in now.

As for the election, I think that everything is possible, although I think that Biden simply should not be in that position due to his health condition, and if Trump were to be re-elected, I don't think that the SEC policy would change much considering that Trump is nearing the end of his mandate had some very aggressive ideas when it came to cryptocurrencies. Considering the views of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. when it comes to Bitcoin, it seems that he would be the best choice, although we all know that politicians talk one thing before the election, and when they are elected, they do something completely different.

[pixie85]

What I meant by "ignoring," he'll delay things and file appeals, just like he did in the case against Ripple. The SEC lost in court, but did not agree with the verdict and planned to file an appeal.
After losing the Grayscale case on Aug 29,  the SEC still did not approve any ETFs in September. They also have 45 days to file an appeal so that would make something like Oct 14 the deadline for that and that's almost exactly the date of their second ETF deadline.
Coindesk cited Gabriel Shapiro from Delphi Labs who said: "Every time they lose in court they just shamelessly say the judge got it wrong and pursue more shenanigans."

I predict that Gensler will file an appeal in the Grayscale case and if he loses that, he'll attack the futures to buy time because the whole case is based on the fact that the SEC allowed futures and doesn't want to allow spot citing market manipulation, but it's the same spot price that decides the price of both futures and spot ETFs. I don't think that after so many years he'll be able to cancel futures ETF, as this would open the SEC to a lot of civil cases, but if Gensler finds out he'll be forced to vacate the chair in a few months, he could make that last suicidal attempt and cancel futures for a while and delay spot ETF this way.

Why is Gensler doing this if there are no arguments?
You can answer this by watching the latest interview with him (I think it was by Bloomberg).
He doesn't even directly answer the question when asked about ETFs. He talks about crypto and how many people were hurt by altcoin scams and how they want to protect people, but the question was about bitcoin. The same bitcoin the SEC called a commodity.

There's an interview with Mike Belshe from BitGo who said the SEC's decisions about bitcoin are political and have nothing to do with existing laws. They interpret the laws however they want and he mentions senator Elizabeth Warren who is probably pulling the strings.
You could say she's attacking bitcoin because it's used for giving bribes and laundering money, but you don't need bitcoin for that and her colleague from the same party can tell us a thing or two about that.
https://decrypt.co/198398/bitcoin-critic-senator-menendez-corruption-bribery

U.S. Senator and Bitcoin skeptic Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) has been charged with bribery after allegedly accepting swaths of gold, cash, and mortgage payments as part of a “corrupt relationship” with three businessmen in his home state.

"I don't like crypto because it's dirty money, but if you want something done, I'll gladly take some cash." -Robert Menendez

[OmegaStarScream]

Update: ARKs spot ETF has been delayed[1] by the SEC until January next year (the deadline was previously set to November 11th).

[1] https://www.sec.gov/files/rules/sro/cboebzx/2023/34-98530.pdf
[2] https://cointelegraph.com/news/sec-pushes-deadline-ark-21shares-spot-bitcoin-etf

[Beerwizzard]

Update: ARKs spot ETF has been delayed[1] by the SEC until January next year (the deadline was previously set to November 11th).

[1] https://www.sec.gov/files/rules/sro/cboebzx/2023/34-98530.pdf
[2] https://cointelegraph.com/news/sec-pushes-deadline-ark-21shares-spot-bitcoin-etf

That does not seem to be a problem. In my opinion, the current situation in the US economy needs to improve and the IRS should start lowering the interest rate before a spot ETF can provide a large volume of institutional liquidity to the crypto market. Until then, spot ETFs are definitely not a game changer.

[Pmalek]

The SEC has also extended its decision time for another Bitcoin ETF that is not mentioned in the table in OP. It's from Global X. They had until 7 October 2023 to either accept or reject it, but they extended their decision for another 45 days.

[OmegaStarScream]

The SEC has also extended its decision time for another Bitcoin ETF that is not mentioned in the table in OP. It's from Global X. They had until 7 October 2023 to either accept or reject it, but they extended their decision for another 45 days.

They have also delayed[1][2] the decision for the rest of ETFs listed on the OP: BlackRock, Invesco, Valkyrie, Bitwise, WisdomTree, Fidelity, and VanEck.

Also, Franklin Templeton has filed a 19b-4 for its spot Bitcoin ETF[3].

[1] https://decrypt.co/199305/sec-punts-four-spot-bitcoin-etf-filing-ahead-government-shutdown
[2] https://www.cryptowisser.com/news/us-sec-delays-its-decision-on-fidelity-vaneck-and-wisdomtree-bitcoin-etf-applications/
[3] https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/breaking-franklin-templeton-files-a-19b-4-for-its-spot-bitcoin-etf-application-202309261945

[OmegaStarScream]

So it looks like the SEC has decided[1] to not appeal the court's decision regarding Grayscale's conversion of the Futures ETF to a Spot ETF[2]. So now, there is a lot of speculation that we might get to see the first bitcoin ETF approved (Ark Invest) by the 10th of January. Thoughts?

[1] https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-sec-does-not-plan-appeal-court-decision-grayscale-bitcoin-etf-source-2023-10-13/
[2] https://blockworks.co/news/grayscale-sec-spot-bitcoin-etf

[dbshck]

If you're wondering why your price notifications all went ON, it's because Blackrock's Spot ETF has been approved! Who would've thought we would get one this soon? Still no articles yet, I'll be sharing articles once they're out.

Seems early and unexpected. No other sources confirming this though other than Cointelegraph tweet https://twitter.com/Cointelegraph/status/1713908025520538079. This is probably a wrong/fake news.

[OmegaStarScream]

Seems early and unexpected. No other sources confirming this though other than Cointelegraph tweet https://twitter.com/Cointelegraph/status/1713908025520538079. This is probably a wrong/fake news.

You're right. I deleted the post now. Apparently, that was false and some journalist from Fox has confirmed that with BlackRock[1].

We can already see how the price is starting to go back to what it was. It's crazy how many crypto sites have already written about it without confirming anything.

[1] https://twitter.com/EleanorTerrett/status/1713913109272809602

[OmegaStarScream]

Some new updates in the last 24 hours:

- Grayscale files for an S-3[1]
- Fidelity files an amendment[2] to its Spot ETF
- Blackrock also updated its ETF filing[3]

[1] https://cointelegraph.com/news/grayscale-new-spot-bitcoin-etf-nyse
[2] https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2023/10/18/bitcoin-nears-29k-as-fidelity-etf-amendment-bumps-bullish-sentiment/
[3] https://decrypt.co/202385/blackrock-amends-bitcoin-etf-acknowledges-fierce-competition

[OmegaStarScream]

It been some time since I last updated this, so here is everything that happened last week:

- VanEck updated its ETF filing and is now using HODL as its ticker.
- Both BlackRock and Bitwise have filed for an update
- SEC Issues “Crypto Investing” Caution, Positive Bitcoin ETF Signal Ahead?
- Fidelity has met with the SEC to discuss their Spot ETF.

As we're approaching the next deadline (Mid-January) do you think any of this is a sign that a Spot ETF will be approved soon?

[Z-tight]

As we're approaching the next deadline (Mid-January) do you think any of this is a sign that a Spot ETF will be approved soon?

I cannot really predict what is going to happen, but soon enough we'll experience it, because according to the op the final deadline for the applications are coming fast, and in the first three months of 2024, we would know if one or more of these applications will be accepted or if all of them would be rejected. The SEC met with Fidelity to discuss their spot etf proposal, and last month they also met with Grayscale and BlackRock, and i know that this has added to the speculations but there is nothing definitive yet.