Halving is Going to Cause a General Effect on all in the Ecosystem

[Good_Doctor]

How will the BTC mining difficulty level affect validators (btc miners) due to 1/2 reduction in reward after the next halving and possible backlash on general ecosystem?

Please as simple as you can I'd love to get your explanation on this.

I've made previous post regarding this and I'm still making enquires to deepen my understanding so understand me no bad talks please
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5458334.msg62494066#msg62494066

I've been reading closely all replies to my post and I'm grateful to all who commented your replies are gonna be helpful what I'll do is sum it up and broaden my understanding. Once again thanks to you all.

The user ,Lucius I don't in anyway wish to go against rules someone here in one of my post I'm sure legendary rank member asked replied that I did a good post but I should have made it capitalized the headings so I thought doing that was a way to make more ideas come in. Please you have to take down your words(I've been writing exams yet I try to come and learn from the question I asked you shouldn't say what you are not sure of it's bad and doesn't speak well of you) because I was following instructions and I've made the corrections you said please.

To all newbies that are here or will be reading this I'd give the meanings to abbreviation used by other users during the course of their reply
HODL-Hold on for Dear Life
ASIC- Application-Specific Integrated Circuit
IMHO- In My Humble Opinion
FOMO- Fear Of Missing Out
ATH- All-Time High
FIAT- all government controlled money e.g US dollars

Wow I really got a comprehensive explanation even now on logging in...I spotted a user but as I kept reading I saw more and more explanation for other users and well explained data and good links so I'd appreciate you all generally here. I hope this serves as a nice data for this particular topic currently and in future date as well.

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[Smeet]

About every four years, the number of Bitcoins miners receive for each block they mine is cut in half. This reduction in rewards can impact miners significantly, making their operations less profitable. When the next halving occurs, miners will receive even fewer Bitcoins for their work. This could lead to some miners exiting the network, especially if Bitcoin's price doesn't increase.

1. First Halving (November 28, 2012): The first Bitcoin halving happening when the block reward was reduced from 50 BTC to 25 BTC.
2. Second Halving (July 9, 2016): The second halving reduced the block reward from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC.
3. Third Halving (May 11, 2020): The third halving happened, reducing the block reward from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC.
4. Fourth Halving (expected April 16, 2024): The fourth Bitcoin halving will reduce the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.

source: https://defichronicles.medium.com/the-halving-effect-what-the-data-tells-us-about-the-next-bull-run-8d42049a5edc

Here's a graph from Coindesk showing the overall supply of bitcoin as we approach halving and the subsidy (number of bitcoins minted after each halving)

[Cantsay]

1. First Halving (November 28, 2012): The first Bitcoin halving happening when the block reward was reduced from 50 BTC to 25 BTC.

2. Second Halving (July 9, 2016): The second halving reduced the block reward from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC.

3. Third Halving (May 11, 2020): The third halving happened, reducing the block reward from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC.

4. Fourth Halving (expected April 16, 2024): The fourth Bitcoin halving will reduce the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.

I don’t know if you’ve heard of plagiarism here in the forum and what punishment is being applied to account that are found guilty of it.



A quick scan of your post gave me that, and since it’s a date I decided not to report it so do well to include this link^[1] into your post and make sure the next time you’re making a post no matter the length, always include the source of where you copied from, I’ve seen your other threads you do copy the links I’m not sure why you left this one out, but do well to correct your errors before you’ll be reported.

[1] https://defichronicles.medium.com/the-halving-effect-what-the-data-tells-us-about-the-next-bull-run-8d42049a5edc

[adaseb]

Most educated miners know well in advance about the reduced block rewards. Every halving there are a few retail miners that have no idea what is going on why their profits halved over night but for the big companies this is not an issue.

They buy the equipment early and know the risks involved. Whether it will affect price is hard to tell because most miners usually sell during bull markets and not daily.

[Fivestar4everMVP]

How will the BTC mining difficulty level affect validators (btc miners) due to 1/2 reduction in reward after the next halving and possible backlash on general ecosystem?

Please as simple as you can I'd love to get your explanation on this.

Well, from my little experience, I might be right, I might be wrong, if I am wrong, I am open for correction..

But I actually think that Bitcoin halving have little to nothing to do with Bitcoin mining difficulty, this i think because, the difficulty can go up or come down on this own, the factors driving the difficulty up or down i am not sure of, but i think it has something to do with number of miners online mining bitcoin at a particular time, that is to say that, when there are a lot of miners mining bitcoin, the mining difficulty increases, and when there are less miners , the difficulty reduced, this increase and decrease i think also have something to do with the total hashrate or whatever its called..

The takeaway here is that, i believe halving has very little to nothing to do with increased or decreased mining difficulty since this aspect of bitcoin also goes up and comes down on its own just like the price of bitcoin.

[mk4]

What possible backlash? All of the miners(or at least those with half a brain) are already aware of the past and future halving events. It's not as if block halvings are something that's sudden and unexpected.

Now, the question is: will it cause us to have more miners(due to potential increase in price) or less miners(some miners being less profitable due to halving of rewards). Time will tell.

[albert0bsd]

Please as simple as you can I'd love to get your explanation on this.

It will be some cycle:
- Initially, miners experience a direct reduction in their revenue because they receive fewer coins for their mining efforts.
- Some miners may find that the reduced rewards make mining unprofitable, and they may decide to shut down their mining operations.
- The total computing power, or hashrate, of the network may decline as miners with higher operational costs exit the market.
- If the hashrate decreases significantly after a halving, the difficulty will decrease as well.
- A lower difficulty level may attract new participants to the mining industry only if the price of bitcoin rise and this may be the case, keeping the currect demand for bitcoin some constant but the new suply reduced this may lead to an price increment

This is more or less the cycle of th halvings with a lot of small details ommit or oversimplified

[FatFork]

How will the BTC mining difficulty level affect validators (btc miners) due to 1/2 reduction in reward after the next halving and possible backlash on general ecosystem?

Halving in mining rewards is predictable and all miners are aware of it. What is not predictable and what significantly affects the profitability of mining is the increase in the difficulty and price of BTC. Investing in mining equipment always involves a bit of gambling.

By the way, mining difficulty has nothing to do with halving. At least not directly. However, halving can have a secondary effect of reducing difficulty, as albert0bsd described.

[SquirrelJulietGarden]

How will the BTC mining difficulty level affect validators (btc miners) due to 1/2 reduction in reward after the next halving and possible backlash on general ecosystem?

Please as simple as you can I'd love to get your explanation on this.

Bitcoin halving needs months to have effects on price because halving is only an event that has noise to help Bitcoin reaching to more people with halving noise effects. Very general, Bitcoin halving event will help Bitcoin expands its communities, bigger.

For Bitcoin miners, if they are short term miners who don't plan to hold their bitcoins a long time, but only mine and sell bitcoins after each week or month, they can feel shocks from halving. Fortunately after a few Bitcoin difficulty retargets, they will feel better with block rewards and if price rises because of halving, their mining ROI won't be affected too much.

If they are long term miners, with holding plans, they will feel very little pressure from Bitcoin halving.

[DoublerHunter]

How will the BTC mining difficulty level affect validators (btc miners) due to 1/2 reduction in reward after the next halving and possible backlash on general ecosystem?

Please as simple as you can I'd love to get your explanation on this.

^ Technically, it's quite hard to understand those aspects when it comes to mining profit gaining because I am not a miner but from what I have understood, it could be miners experience a direct reduction in their income after a halving event because they receive half the number of new BTCs they used to for every block mined. This can be particularly challenging for miners who operate with slim profit margins, as their revenue is effectively cut in half. However, probably this how BTC was created and it is designed to control its supply and create scarcity. The long-term effects of halvings are often seen as positive for the overall BTC ecosystem or in the crypto world. So the effect would be good for us as crypto enthusiasts.

[Lucius]

How will the BTC mining difficulty level affect validators (btc miners) due to 1/2 reduction in reward after the next halving and possible backlash on general ecosystem?
~snip~

Those for whom mining BTC is a serious business started to adapt for the next halving already after the last halving, because that's what professionals who protect their investments do - and those who are ordinary amateurs are, as always, doomed to failure, in any business. I don't know if you are aware that for the first four years the reward per block was 50 BTC, and now it is only 6.25 BTC - considering your thinking, the whole thing should have failed a long time ago.

It would be good if you could explain to us exactly what you meant when you said "possible backlash on general ecosystem", because I don't see any sense in what you wrote in relation to halving and Bitcoin.


The use of capital letters has its own meaning, so it makes no sense for the title to be in that format in the future.

[Smeet]

but do well to correct your errors before you’ll be reported.

[1] https://defichronicles.medium.com/the-halving-effect-what-the-data-tells-us-about-the-next-bull-run-8d42049a5edc

Thank you for your feedback! I've added the link as a source in my comment. I'll pay close attention to have the source present going forward.

[tabas]

First, we're all aware miners and not that halving causes their rewards to be halved or cut in half in other terms. Those that have experienced the other halving will continue to run their miners as long as it is sustainable as they'll get their expenses paid through what they mine.
If it turns out that it's no longer happening, they have an option to upgrade or just simply shut down the miners they're running. Basically, what everyone has said here is right and it's up to you on how you're going to extract all of them and how you're going to summarize the actual thing. But anyway, it's always about the adoption of the situation and no matter how many times halving we go through, there will always be those miners that will keep going on.

[nelson4lov]

What possible backlash? All of the miners(or at least those with half a brain) are already aware of the past and future halving events. It's not as if block halvings are something that's sudden and unexpected.

Now, the question is: will it cause us to have more miners(due to potential increase in price) or less miners(some miners being less profitable due to halving of rewards). Time will tell.

The probable backlash OP mentioned is that if the block rewards are halved and the price doesn't do well enough to offset the costs of mining a bitcoin block. I had these concerns as well but I'm hopeful that miners will be able to make do and adjust to the new changes when the time comes. Miners definitely have to because when the block rewards get zeroed out, tx fees will be the only benefit for mining transactions.

[Odohu]

From historic data, Halving has always lead to new ATH and this somehow counterbalance the reduced block reward. I believe miners already factor this in in their business that is why we still have investments in the mining business.

The people who will feel much of the effect of halving are those already buying now that the price is still low because if everything happens as usual in every halving year, then we night see very huge high prices.

[jeraldskie11]

How will the BTC mining difficulty level affect validators (btc miners) due to 1/2 reduction in reward after the next halving and possible backlash on general ecosystem?

I believe miners have already acknowledged that the payout would be reduced by half following the halving. That is why the miners' moto would always be "today is the best day to mine Bitcoin." However, as the chart shows, Bitcoin prices always rise after the halving. That is, the investor would benefit greatly, but the miners would benefit a little bit. If a miner quits their job, I'm confident there will be another to take their place. So I don't think there's anything to be concerned about there.

[lionheart78]

How will the BTC mining difficulty level affect validators (btc miners) due to 1/2 reduction in reward after the next halving and possible backlash on general ecosystem?

Please as simple as you can I'd love to get your explanation on this.[/quote]


There are cases in that Bitcoin halving can give a backlash on the general ecosystem of Bitcoin mining, and that is if the price fails to adapt to Bitcoin's block halving.  We will know that miners won't run their machines if it is unprofitable for them.  In case the price does not adjust, there will be a possibility that miners will stop mining and the possibility of mining difficulty will be reduced.  But if the price adapts on the Bitcoin halving and miners can see huge profits, then the opposite which is more miners diving into calculating the next block will join the process.

[tbct_mt2]

Bitcoin is 75% To Halving, Here’s How Past Cycles Looked Like At This Stage

75% count down to a next halving and if we compare the on-going process with previous halving cycles, we would see some similarities. The market has similarities with each new cycle, new investors come, new capital joins, FOMO appears then panic occurs. It's a repeated psychology of market cycle.

Pyschology of market cycles

It's hard to know what phase we're currently in but Disbelief phase is going to complete in my opinion.

[spectre71]

The swing between each having is calming down and there is not allot left of the scarcity left to mine. what 10% ish ish? 5-6 around our current price, not large percent of the market cap anymore. The US economy housing and market will be entering some bubble trouble near then negating any spike. If I do see a sharp FOMO rise I will take peoples money and wait for it to simmer back down.

[GreatArkansas]

This is the reason why if you can see on every block halving we can see how the price of Bitcoin every block halving is pumping.
So for me, it's kinda of every block halving, Bitcoin is looking for price discovery, just take a look on chart and see every block halving in previous, you will see how price is reacting.