How do you suggest I handle incorrect price predictions?

[Davidvictorson]

I find it frustrating when my price prediction for the market fails. I know that it is difficult to predict the market movement due to its uncertainty and also that it is not possible to consistently predict the future accurately but it still hurts when I tell it to my friends and it doesn't turn out so. In January, I had predicted that by the third quarter of the year, bitcoin will hit $35k - $40k. I hide my head in shame because right now it is struggling at $25. Maybe I should stop quarterly prediction and stick with monthly predictions. Also how do you suggest I handle incorrect price predictions? Anybody been here. How do you handle it?

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[Tytanowy Janusz]

I find it frustrating when my price prediction for the market fails.

think of yourself as a taxi driver. The financial loss associated with misprediction is normal, a cost of obtaining income, just like gas cost for a taxi driver. Without fuel, the taxi driver will not earn, without occiasional losses, trader wont profit. Losing is normal. you just have to know how to cut losses, cherish profits, and make sure that at the end of the day, you come out on top.

Maybe I should stop quarterly prediction and stick with monthly predictions.

you should stop making predictions placed in any time perspective. Just bet on long/short. the market tends to be undervalued for years, overvalued for years. Good investor just bets on undervalued things and wait patiently -
and here I will quote Warren Buffett that in the market, money passes from the impatient to the patient. Predicting that the price will reach certain levels by day xx contradicts this statement. And in particular, you should stop telling your colleagues about your predictions. It doesn't matter if they turn out to be good or bad, they still hurt them. I recommend Nicolas Taleb's antifragility - this will help you understand that any "expert opinion" is harmful.

[Adbitco]

For you to get the price or precisely as the price may comes you need to be good with technical analysis and also how fair are you with your candle stick reading I think all this counts as well, there are some people who may predicted prices after reading their candles to know how it could closed and open and then they could as well refer to the history of last year, last two or more then before giving out their final judgement towards the price action and movement (speculation to be precisely), that is to say it may be closer to what you predicted but won't give you the exact value of what you wanted but will not against as you wished.

[EarnOnVictor]

In January, I had predicted that by the third quarter of the year, bitcoin will hit $35k - $40k. I hide my head in shame because right now it is struggling at $25.

I know how you feel right now and you do not have to bury your head in shame, all you just need is to learn more. Perhaps the trading strategy you are using is not accurate enough, or you might want to add strategies to complement each other. And at times, you might not be reading your strategies well or not listening to their dynamism as the price of the market changes.

Bitcoin is one of the easiest markets to predict for long and medium-term trading, and you might also want to focus more on support and resistance strategies, they are important for accurate predictions if used well.

Maybe I should stop quarterly prediction and stick with monthly predictions. Also how do you suggest I handle incorrect price predictions? Anybody been here. How do you handle it?

You and only you can know the capability of your trading strategy in line with the way you use it, and as you didn't disclose the strategy, it's difficult to advise you further on it.

However, limiting the forecast to monthly prediction might make you manage your position more effectively. As for the wrong predictions, we should all prepare for contingencies when we trade, a simple exit level should have been predefined before opening a position.

[Eternad]

Maybe I should stop quarterly prediction and stick with monthly predictions. Also how do you suggest I handle incorrect price predictions? Anybody been here. How do you handle it?

Maybe try to avoid sharing prediction with others or give a disclaimer so that you will not be obligated to provide accurate predictions that bind you to a commitment.

Simply you don’t get from your friend when you share prediction so let them inform that your prediction is just a speculation and not accurate since no one can give a consistent correct prediction because the price movement is influenced by a lot of factor that no one knows when it will hit the market.

[spectre71]

Where are you getting you data? How are you compiling it? Have you looked back 5 years and linked the news to these data points?

Please tell me you are not getting your predictions form here, youtube or reddit and the like and passing them off as data.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

It's simple: don't make them.

I've been doing this for 6 years, and, well, I make some predictions, especially in these speculation threads, but I wouldn't bet too much on them. Nor would I bet much on any others. The thing is that analysis houses that have many more tools than you to analyse also fail in their predictions. So stop making them or don't give them much reliability.

[ajiz138]

Never said this to a friend about a bitcoin prediction in the middle of the year it will be $ 50K but he understands that it's a prediction if it's not right then the prediction misses and I don't promise or bet anything with this prediction even if it doesn't reach the price I said it won't be a problem.

Then what makes you feel embarrassed to meet your friends again to hide yourself? Does that prediction make your friend buy bitcoin because he believes in your prediction? If the prediction is wrong, we will ignore it. Here we are all speculating on predictions, for example at the end of the year Bitcoin will be $50K, it could be right or wrong.

[OgNasty]

If you want to “handle” your incorrect price predictions I would suggest the first step to be documenting them. Have a thread with a list of dates and amounts of your predictions. Link to posts so people can see it’s legit and track which ones are correct versus which are wrong. Hold yourself accountable. Only way I can see to do it.

[coolcoinz]

Why should you even try to handle wrong predictions? It doesn't really matter if you get this right or wrong, unless you have open positions on exchanges waiting to be filled.
It's impossible to predict bitcoin's price accurately time after time. Some people manage to do it once, then fail, then get it right again and so on. You make a single prediction, fail and see it as a problem, which it is not.

Operate on facts and the facts are:
-fiat money is losing value all the time, so it's bound to be worth less in time than bitcoin, which slowly gains value due to growing cost of mining and limited supply.
-bitcoin is eventually going to surpass its ATH. Don't try to guess when, but I'm pretty sure it's going to be by the end of 2024.

[Wiwo]

I find it frustrating when my price prediction for the market fails. I know that it is difficult to predict the market movement due to its uncertainty and also that it is not possible to consistently predict the future accurately but it still hurts when I tell it to my friends and it doesn't turn out so. In January, I had predicted that by the third quarter of the year, bitcoin will hit $35k - $40k. I hide my head in shame because right now it is struggling at $25. Maybe I should stop quarterly prediction and stick with monthly predictions. Also how do you suggest I handle incorrect price predictions? Anybody been here? How do you handle it?

Knowing fully well that bitcoin price is unpredictable, makes it easier for you to be able to pick up when you failed to give accurate or near accurate predictions of the future market,  and for those that we're involved in the discussion with you when you speculated the bitcoin price to reach 35k-40k already understand the fact that it was just speculation just like you can predict the result of a future football match it may happen and it may not just like in this situation.

So the best form of antidote for such feelings is by making up your mind to look away from reality regardless of whether you win or lose in your speculations since we already know that it is impossible to predict the future price due to high volatility.

[ShowOff]

I find it frustrating when my price prediction for the market fails. I know that it is difficult to predict the market movement due to its uncertainty and also that it is not possible to consistently predict the future accurately but it still hurts when I tell it to my friends and it doesn't turn out so. In January, I had predicted that by the third quarter of the year, bitcoin will hit $35k - $40k. I hide my head in shame because right now it is struggling at $25. Maybe I should stop quarterly prediction and stick with monthly predictions. Also how do you suggest I handle incorrect price predictions? Anybody been here. How do you handle it?

Everyone here doesn't come from the future, meaning they never know what will happen the next day let alone in the next few months. If you make predictions and analysis, then it should be good to support your investment plan. But if you are doing it for someone else, then tell them that your analysis and predictions are not financial advice.

After all, bitcoin is traded freely and it also has high volatility. Good news about adoption developments and others will make the fundamentals good, but conversely bad things will have an impact on price corrections. Currently the market is struggling to recover, but we need to be patient and it will take longer than expected.

[mk4]

Maybe I should stop quarterly prediction and stick with monthly predictions.

That's going to be totally up to you. Not sure why you're too personally affected knowing that predicting prices is very difficult especially in shorter timespans.

Also how do you suggest I handle incorrect price predictions? Anybody been here. How do you handle it?

Like an adult? Take a look on why you're wrong and why the strategy/indicator you used is wrong; and how you can improve it for future "predictions".

[Onyeeze]

If you depends on the prediction price of Bitcoin it will make to lose hope in cryptocurrency because i have read someone in the forum suggesting what is good about Bitcoin and i believe that bitcoin investment have to do things in it's way, so if you depends on prediction it will make you to lose attention in bitcoin when the price failed, for this kind of thing what you will do is to study about bitcoin properly and know the price before you invest it will be helpful than depending for the speculation price, but a good crypto person do not depends on suggestions of other people before it invest for cryptocurrency

[michellee]

You must continue learning to analyze market conditions and not give up just because you have failed. A baby will not be able to walk straight away but must go through crawling, learning to stand, and learning to walk first before he can walk smoothly. And during that process, he fell many times but he got up again and didn't give up.

You have to keep trying like the baby you are. Every failure will be a success for you and you just have to keep trying. Calm yourself first and try to analyze again later.

We are all still learning to analyze and it's okay if we still analyze wrongly because that's normal.

[adaseb]

Well your January prediction wasn’t too far off. You basically were correct that we wouldn’t make a new low and almost touched $35k.

Your prediction is actually more accurate than most of these financial advisors which have crazy predictions which are never correct.

Trading is difficult. It’s not supposed to be easy.

[gunhell16]

I find it frustrating when my price prediction for the market fails. I know that it is difficult to predict the market movement due to its uncertainty and also that it is not possible to consistently predict the future accurately but it still hurts when I tell it to my friends and it doesn't turn out so. In January, I had predicted that by the third quarter of the year, bitcoin will hit $35k - $40k. I hide my head in shame because right now it is struggling at $25. Maybe I should stop quarterly prediction and stick with monthly predictions. Also how do you suggest I handle incorrect price predictions? Anybody been here. How do you handle it?

Nobody can claim to be certain of their prediction, not even in the news, hence there is no such thing as an accurate prediction. The person who made the prediction will acknowledge that it was accurate if the prediction is realized. But for the time being, all forecasts regarding anyone will remain conjecture.

We therefore still can't confirm your estimate from the third quarter that Bitcoin may hit $40k per unit this month. Even if something unexpected occurs, your prediction may still come true. You are aware of how unstable and expensive the market is for Bitcoin. If you continue to believe your prognosis from January, there is nothing wrong with it.

[Minecache]

I find it frustrating when my price prediction for the market fails. I know that it is difficult to predict the market movement due to its uncertainty and also that it is not possible to consistently predict the future accurately but it still hurts when I tell it to my friends and it doesn't turn out so. In January, I had predicted that by the third quarter of the year, bitcoin will hit $35k - $40k. I hide my head in shame because right now it is struggling at $25. Maybe I should stop quarterly prediction and stick with monthly predictions. Also how do you suggest I handle incorrect price predictions? Anybody been here. How do you handle it?

I want to know if you are a long-term investor or a short-term speculator? If you are a short-term speculator, you should continue to increase your knowledge and improve your analytical skills to improve making bitcoin predictions. And if you are a long-term investor who only sells bitcoin during the bull season, then why waste time making short- and medium-term price predictions? Because even if bitcoins go up in price as you predict, and you don't sell them, isn't that prediction meaningless?

[rachael9385]

The only way to handle such situations is never to take the predictions you imminent way too far (like not to put your hope in it), our predictions are not meant to be trusted but we have to predict the price, investments is a high class gambling that's why as an investor you must hold onto your coins for over a long period of time before selling so you can make good profits from your asset, since gambling can't be predicted accurately so investments can't be predicted accurate, besides, if price can be precise no investor will hold for long, they will just wait for the particular time they predicted and invest that's all.
One of the reasons why we have to hold our investment for a long period of time is because Bitcoin prices are unpredictable and if we don't hold or accumulate, we won't profit big from the investment.

[uchegod-21]

There is no need to hide your face in shame because of failed prediction. The Bitcoin price prediction is called speculation because no one knows exactly about the price movement. We just speculate and based on our speculation we make some kind of investment.

It is only when you have predicted the price and make some affirmative statement that it must be so that you will begin to hide in shame. But after your price prediction, if you make it a known fact that this is an ordinary prediction for no one knows the actual price of bitcoin at every point, it will be a kind of disclaimer to vindicate you even when other people use it as investment advice
There is no big deal continue with your prediction, but do not give people assurance that it must happen.