When are we going to see the mempool empty again and 1sat/b confirmations?

[Hamza2424]

Op as we know there are a few factors involved in it, Bitcoin Halving, Bitcoin adoption by price boost, Mining difficulty, and Adoption of L2 Solutions. Considering the current market as far it is concerned at least for a few very recent years we are not going to any changes in the meme pool even more congested mempool can be expected, due to the Bitcoin price shoot adoption because of a reasonable transaction count boost, Bitcoin Halving event directly impact the inner behavior and indirectly the memepool as well which means it can't be neglected as well.

As far as the mining difficulty/hash rate is concerned in the lower hash rate a slighter change in the Block Production and slower transaction confirmation can greatly affect the memepool in congested scenarios. FOMO at the very early stage of the Price movement to the ATH can boost the transaction count as well.

Coming to the point of empty Memepool, I think there are a lot of challenges to this expectation but with the support of a few points we can say eventually it might be possible as with the L2 solution adoption the pressure on the Bitcoin network memepool can be reduced and on the Peak of Bull journey and after halving revert due to bullish market sentiments the transaction count decreases by a reasonable number. Except for this I cant see any senerio lets see what other think about it.

[DaveF]

On top of all the other crap getting dumped into the mempool the other issue is lurkers.
How many people / businesses have UTXO they want to consolidate and they are waiting for a drop in the mempool to take care of it.

The longer it takes to clear, the more they have to consolidate. It drops to an acceptable level for them, and then they start to do it. And then others do the same, and then the cycle starts again.

It will eventually clear itself, but it will probably be a while.

-Dave

[famososMuertos]

1sat/vb is sometimes results in a placebo effect.

We are at a time when thinking about 1 sat/vb is a thing of the "past," then, in the comparison of the use that we give it a lot, except for the stupid "pepe" effect, things are still advantageous in the comparison with a Swift.

The point is that many continue to move in comparison with other rates in the crypto ecosystem, we must learn to move as situations arise, in the near future making Txs with small amounts in bitcoin network, will not make much sense.

So, that romantic scenario of 1 sat/vb is at least latent, but it subsists in a temporal reality that tends to have in many that mental Praxis in its equivalent of wanting to get rich by buying some Satoshi.

[adaseb]

If the ordinals keeps being hyped then it will be a while before we see 1 satbyte. However if the fad passes and the bitcoin and crypto markets are still trading sideways then we might see those low fees. I think last month we got fees as low as 3 sats. But then the markets started to be more active and then the ordinals came back in play.

I also have a lot of inputs I should of combined during those 1 sat byte days however I was lazy and now I will also have to wait or start to pay the higher prices to get those small inputs combined to 1 larger input.

[nutildah]

The thing is once fees get low enough, I think you'll see more giant inscriptions taking place... There's probably at least a hundred people waiting for the opportunity to upload a jpeg of a monkey when fees get low enough again. Right now its prohibitively expensive. Inscriptions for the current fad, BRC-20, are tiny in comparison, and they account for the vast majority of all inscriptions.

https://dune.com/jellyz/brc20-track

[stompix]

On top of all the other crap getting dumped into the mempool the other issue is lurkers.
How many people / businesses have UTXO they want to consolidate and they are waiting for a drop in the mempool to take care of it.
The longer it takes to clear, the more they have to consolidate. It drops to an acceptable level for them, and then they start to do it. And then others do the same, and then the cycle starts again.

This is exactly what happened the last time, it seems like the ordinals were dying, that fees would go down, and just as everyone was relieved here came Binance dumping 40vMB of consolidating transactions and sending my next 4 block tx to the next day 
I'm pretty sure there are a lot of users there who see a few satoshis worth of dust in their wallets and are saying that next time if there will be one at all they will consolidate all their inputs even at 3-4sat or otherwise just delete that damn wallet.

The thing is once fees get low enough, I think you'll see more giant inscriptions taking place... There's probably at least a hundred people waiting for the opportunity to upload a jpeg of a monkey when fees get low enough again.

I opened that topic about jpg monkeys kicking our asses more out of frustration and boredom but...
https://ordinals.com/block/806896
Like wtf, the last mined block has 3 f*** monkeys in it! Wow!

As for the economic part of this, it seems one of the money was this one:
https://mempool.space/tx/35fb1c78dac16f55e924596746adf6186aa56c33d612e2341cec2e6177c6990c
 25$, would this be "prohibitively expensive"? I have no clue about the profit expectation part, but at 4sat/b it would cost 5$ so everyone would afford to inscribe a picture of whatever he wishes there, which would mean there will never be a 1sat/b time ever gain.

[Artemis3]

Of course we won't, spam gets better treatment than normal transactions, because of the pools subsidizing it.
It was no placebo, until Feb you could perfectly do it as i used to do after mid 2018 until the start of 2023 before the spam invasion.
1 sat/b tx could take from about 1 or 2 hours to maybe 1 or 2 days. This was perfectly fine for many types of transactions that needed no urgency.
And then came the spam subsidized by pools as an "alternative" source of income to them...
In the past, some pools allowed you to pay to "unstuck" transactions, now the new fashion is pay to spam the blockchain.
It is fine spam a marked crashed, but there is spam b, c, d... or should i say spam r, g, b now? whatever, spam is spam.
Maybe Bitcoin should be renamed Spamcoin, since that clearly has priority now...

[stompix]

And nobody said less than one month which might look like a winner right now
The mempool is drying up at an insane pace:



In just 6 days we went from 200vMB to barely 60vMB and the weekend is not finished so it might go till 30 or even less by Monday evening.
Same as fees from 10-20 on average now 3sat/vb are getting confirmed.

And now that the ordinals are gone, one could ask...where has the actual usage gone?

[magnus_1337]

Transaction count incoming to mempool ended on 19th september abruptly. Like from 7000 to let's say "normal" 1800 transaction vBytes per second (vB/s).  Does anyone know what happened?

https://talkimg.com/images/2023/10/01/Pji5l.png

[Woodie]

As long as we keep trying to push for adoption, I honestly don't see this happening anytime soon as demand will keep tx fees high...

And to top it off, our exchanges that are very much vital in the crypto ecosystems do put pressure on tx fees as they always want to get tx in the next block by using higher transaction fees which makes this a continuous process that won't allow fees to drop...

But checking mempool we seem to be close to 1sat/b as I have seen this to have dropped from the high fees we used to seeing...which is only possible because  of the weekend, Monday this will go up .

[DaveF]

...And now that the ordinals are gone, one could ask...where has the actual usage gone?

Bit of a loop, people who were not making TX because of the high fees have walked away a bit. Once they notice that they have dropped fees will go back up.
How many TXs have been put off till 'later' since someone did not want to pay the ordinals tax?

Give it a while for people to find out that 2-3-4 sats will get you in the next block or so and pool will fill a bit.

-Dave

[nutildah]

The thing is once fees get low enough, I think you'll see more giant inscriptions taking place... There's probably at least a hundred people waiting for the opportunity to upload a jpeg of a monkey when fees get low enough again. Right now its prohibitively expensive. Inscriptions for the current fad, BRC-20, are tiny in comparison, and they account for the vast majority of all inscriptions.

https://dune.com/jellyz/brc20-track

Well, it finally happened... Let's see if my theory holds true or not. For the moment it seems like it may not. Is the Ordinals rush finally over?

Give it a while for people to find out that 2-3-4 sats will get you in the next block or so and pool will fill a bit.

-Dave

Seems like as good a theory as any.

One of the more popular BRC-20 tokens, SATS, was "minted out" on Sept 24th... all 21 quadrillion of them, lol.



Now maybe people are starting to discover that nobody wants these tokens and are moving on to the next thing  

Here's a tweet that just about sums it up & potentially explains the lull in Ordinals activity:



https://coinranking.com/coin/mROMqPxZd+sats-sats

[Cricktor]

Transaction count incoming to mempool ended on 19th september abruptly. Like from 7000 to let's say "normal" 1800 transaction vBytes per second (vB/s).  Does anyone know what happened?

It's as if someone flipped a switch. I didn't have time in the last days to take a look at the Mempool misery that lasted for some months since this Ordinals and BRC-20 shit hit the fan. Now that such a "sudden" drainage started, I'm a bit surprised and pleased. Me too, I have to ask: wtf happened for such an abrupt change? I can't quite believe that other people came back to sanity and dropped Ordinals and all the other blockchain spam.

Don't get me wrong, I'm happy to see a more "normal" Mempool and less bloat written into Bitcoin's blockchain.

[franky1]

the sudden drop is a obvious sign that it was not a large community of lots of random people.. but instead just a couple of people working together and collectively they got bored/didnt make profit and so realised they wasted their time

if it was more random of lots of people the drop would not be sudden nor to any large extent because different people making choices at different times would have varied the production.. so its obviously just a couple scam spammers and not a large community


another thing i have to keep reminding people is that we dont have to actually measure transactions in minimum of 1sat/byte which increment by a sat per competitive bidding

imagine if we done it instead as:  1sat/kb
where by a lean 226byte tx is more prefered than a 408byte tx because although both tx only pay 1 sat. the leaner tx uses less space meaning a pool can fit more than 2 lean tx's in the space of a single bloated tx, thus gets more income over all by fitting in more transactions

think about it if a user pay 1sat/kb meaning both transactions are 1sat. the mining pools would prefer 2x 226byte tx's rather than 1 tx of 408bytes. because the 408byte tx only pays 1sat. but 2x tx of 226byte pay a total of 2sat.. meaning mining pools prefer leaner transactions. and it makes users want to make their tx leaner to have more of a better position

EG if you had
p2pkh 1in2out (226) = 4.42 priority
p2pkh 1in3out (260) = 3.84 priority
p2pkh 2in2out (374) = 2.67 priority
p2pkh 2in3out (408) = 2.45 priority

because the leaner a tx is the more priority it gets because the pool can then fit in more tx's paying 1sat/kb

i know some will now reply to argue that no one will want to bid in sat/kb measure as its a huge leap from sat/byte.. but we can always do sat per decabyte

meaning a 226byte tx is 23sat instead of todays minimum of 226sat

[stompix]

As long as we keep trying to push for adoption, I honestly don't see this happening anytime soon as demand will keep tx fees high...

Look at the mempool prior to April this year!

How many TXs have been put off till 'later' since someone did not want to pay the ordinals tax?
Give it a while for people to find out that 2-3-4 sats will get you in the next block or so and pool will fill a bit.

I think the number is way smaller than we might have thought before, it would have been one thing if the fee would have hovered around 100sat/b but with it being for months in the 10-20sat/b and the biggest users (exchanges) already paying way above that I don't think there are that many users who have postponed their transactions and they have such a long batch of it to broadcast.
Assuming 20sat/b for a tx it was still under $1 so the most we can expect is consolidation.

One of the more popular BRC-20 tokens, SATS, was "minted out" on Sept 24th... all 21 quadrillion of them, lol.
~
Here's a tweet that just about sums it up & potentially explains the lull in Ordinals activity:

Interesting so the dump from 44k to 8k (with a ton of zeros before that I'm not going to count) happened roughly 24 hours after the mempool started its decline and in the same timeframe with the stop in minting them, so it might be possible that the hype and usage was already dead and the congestion was because of the project still going out of inertia and long-missing periods?

[DooMAD]

It went on longer than I thought it would.  But it seems 'greater fools' are a finite resource and they will run out eventually.  This silliness was never going to be economically viable on a permanent basis.  It was only going to last as long as people were buying the pictures and not enough people are doing that anymore.

It still saddens me that some people were ready and willing to sacrifice permissionless freedom to try and stamp it out sooner, though.  It would have failed and would only harm the network in the long run.

[franky1]

Assuming 20sat/b for a tx it was still under $1 so the most we can expect is consolidation.

$1 is 0.00003846 (at a whole btc rate of $26k)
a lean tx of 226byte means the sat/byte rate is 17sat/byte

this means if you know maths(doubt you do)
that if the same lean tx was 20sat/byte the total would be 0.00004520 which is $1.17
and thats for a LEAN tx. average tx are bigger meaning they pay more then $1.17

[stompix]

And it's here:

The mempool having just leftovers

Only 21 blocks worth of tx left


The interesting thing, in the poll just one person out of 15 said 1 month which turned out to be true.

this means if you know maths(doubt you do)

Of course franky, of course, you see, the only problem is that you know the ancient math, that one where we only had numbers from 1 to 2 
https://mempool.space/tx/9ed475ae427fdc2862ef2fc556d59130883aeb98902799c8bcddc10639de662e

Fee   2,552 sat $0.69
Fee rate   23.3 sat/vB   

Not my problem you're stuck in the past and you're using furlongs and pints while everyone has moved away.

[franky1]

Assuming 20sat/b for a tx it was still under $1 so the most we can expect is consolidation.

dont quote 20sat/b and the pretend you meant vbyte

Of course franky, of course, you see, the only problem is that you know the ancient math, that one where we only had numbers from 1 to 2  
https://mempool.space/tx/9ed475ae427fdc2862ef2fc556d59130883aeb98902799c8bcddc10639de662e

Fee   2,552 sat $0.69
Fee rate   23.3 sat/vB  

Not my problem you're stuck in the past and you're using furlongs and pints while everyone has moved away.

again you quoted "Assuming 20sat/b". and your exampled link is just 13sat/byte
thats why its only 69c because YOU cant tell the difference

now calculate what sat for byte is at a rate of 20sat per byte. as you first promoted

and by the way vbyte is cludgy misrepresented math that doesnt even count real bytes.. but you do love bad math so i can understand why you prefer to say one thing and mean another

[DooMAD]

and by the way vbyte is cludgy misrepresented math that doesnt even count real bytes.. but you do love bad math so i can understand why you prefer to say one thing and mean another

ITT:  Disreputable user takes a contrary stance because they think they're special.  No one else cares and continues to do things in the way normal people do them.