The Bullish Case for Bitcoin, reloaded.

[stompix]

Is bitcoin ever in a bear market? If it goes to 10k, falls to 5k, goes to 20k, falls to 10k, goes to 60k, falls to 30k, and so on, Is there even a bear market? Someone could argue that these are simple corrections in one big bull market, since it keeps going higher, making higher highs and higher lows.
IMO there's a clear growth pattern that we're witnessing here.

If you sugarcoat stuff that much you're going end with diabetes and never touch chocolate again!
Let's not try and change things that have been established for decades just because it doesn't look good to us!

Bitcoin is up 400% since 2020?, it is, it is up 30% since 2017, yes, but at the same time it's down 62% since the ATH , yes it is, we're in a bear market of low after low and that's it.

Let's look and those two, so basically the <let's not name it here company> will also never end in a bear market, right?



We also didn't have a bear market in 2009, right? Cause continuous growth!



Back to the main topic:

2) Many people forgot why Bitcoin is such a big innovation. It is the first digital value exchange medium which lacks central intermediaries completely and thus has its known advantages like censorship resistance. All previous attempts needed some kind of "bank" controlling the system.

Although I totally agree with you d5000 on the main point, so that's it on the theory, I have to correct you on this one and on the reality we see around us. It's not that they forgot. They never cared!

You say growth from usage, you say being your own bank, where is it cause it pains me to say but there is none!
Some brag about having millions for crypto users, crypto(dot)com is claiming some 40% of Turkey population owns crypto and there I look at the blockchain and see 1/3 of that in total number of addresses with over 100$ worth of coins!

As blunt as I can be, if you or anyone else thinks that the "growth" will com from real-life use then you're just as delusional as me! It's nice to dream but reality will hit us hard every single time.

[1714634701]

1714634701

[1714634701]

1714634701

[1714634701]

1714634701

[1714634701]

1714634701

[1714634701]

1714634701

[1714634701]

1714634701

[d5000]

This isn't very realistic, the amount that you plan to sell must coincide with the amount you plan to spend, at the timing must coincide too. For most investors this will not be the case and they will just sell BTC for a liquid asset - fiat.

This is only true if you replace all your trades on exchanges by buying/selling goods. You can do it partially, and if you want to buy or sell more, then you can combine both methods. Of course if you have complex trading strategies then you can't replace all your trades by buying and selling goods.
It isn't an "one or another" thing. It's more like that it would be better to gradually shift more to buying goods instead of selling on exchanges.
 

The difficulties of being your own bank - key management and irreversibility of transactions are not correlated with the levels of adoption. Maybe in the future someone will release a more idiot-proof wallet software for mass use, but for some reason no one made such wallet in all these years.

I don't see current (particularly mobile) wallet software as that difficult to use. However, I think you're correct that there is room for improvement particularly in the field "protect the user from him/herself". I don't know that many mobile wallets, but for example a simple function only allowing to spend a certain amount per day (as it's common in bank accounts) could help there.

Key management is something you generally have to learn in the digital world, also for fiat transactions and identity management. Irreversibility is mainly an issue if you trade with anonymous trading partners, while when buying goods at a merchant you are entering a legal contract with an established entity. At least that's what most people would do when they buy goods and services. So if they scam you then you've to take legal action, as if you had paid with cash.

The biggest factor of Bitcoin volatility is that there's no mathematical formula for estimating Bitcon's "objective" value, so it's all just based on pure guess of traders.

There's also no convincing mathematical formula of the value of other, less volatile goods like gold. There are machine learning based models being developed but that could also be possible for Bitcoin. Trading volume of gold is however 10 times higher than Bitcoin's. So this can explain its lower volatility.

We are waiting for this to happen in the last several years and it isn't happening.

Yup. That's also what I meant with the "limbo" Bitcoin is currently in.

The problem is that most of the Bitcoiners don't want BTC to become an actual currency. They simply want to buy BTC at 20K and sell it at 100K USD.

Again yup, this is the current most common usage pattern. The idea of this thread is to think a bit about how a transition to the next stage could become possible.

There could be technical solutions, like for example what hatshepsut93 wrote above (more "idiot-proof" wallets). I for example think also that a reloaded OpenBazaar-like marketplace software would help a lot. Also we can think about smart-contract-based solutions to hedge against volatility. There are a lot of possible options, but they're not taking off.

If Bitcoin was so awesome and so much better than the fiat payment systems, then why didn't everyone in the world just dump fiat and use BTC?
The answer seems obvious. The fiat payment systems aren't that bad and Bitcoin isn't perfect.

I actually agree here and I'm not among these ultra-maximalists who think Bitcoin will replace all fiat operations. However, I think it's also not correct to downplay Bitcoin's advantages. Needing no centralized intermediaries nor human intervention (apart from development and bugfixing) makes Bitcoin the first completely automatized payment system in the world. For quite big markets like international payments/remittances and for the unbanked there aren't much better options.

It's not that they forgot. They never cared!

Sometimes I'm becoming as fatalist as you But even if many people don't care, it can make sense to think about the reasons for Bitcoin being "stuck" at this "speculative asset stage" and how this could improve, in particular which incentives could get people to get "on track" to a more P2P cash-friendly stance again.

[darkangel11]

IMO there's a clear growth pattern that we're witnessing here.

Of course, as I wrote in the long term (>2-3 years) Bitcoin already works as a store of value. However, not all people have that much time. But much more important: There is no guarantee that this long term bull market will continue. S2F and similar theories assume an "automatic growth", but I have severe doubts if demand can be sustained that high ... without the "usage as a currency".

So what is the alternative?

We have the bull market incited by several factors:
-Internet penetration with more people being introduced to bitcoin
-Institutional interest with ETFs coming and more billionaires dipping their feet. Recently there was a story about that billionaire from Mexico.
-People waking up to the game the FED and central banks are playing with their money
-Fear of CBDC?
-Countries going the path of El Salvador.
-Increasing cost of mining

Let's say we won't have currency usage for another 4 years, until the next post-halving cycle. Do you expect the price to stop growing because of that? If it doesn't go up it's going to have to go down, against all these positive factors, because I just don't see bitcoin as a stable commodity. It will keep going up, or it will have to come down, but IMO there so many strong points supporting the bullish case for bitcoin that it's going to keep on giving to those who appreciate it.

Bitcoin is up 400% since 2020?, it is, it is up 30% since 2017, yes, but at the same time it's down 62% since the ATH , yes it is, we're in a bear market of low after low and that's it.

It's a matter of perspective. If you bought bitcoin for 60k, you'll say the price is bearish. If you bought it for 10k, it's bullish.
If you measure bitcoin only from its highest point, 99% of time it's going to be lower, so that doesn't say anything. A week from when it hit 68k, people who bought that price point were already at a loss. Was that a bear market? I'd say it wasn't.

When bitcoin went down 50% from 60k to 30k, was that a bear market?

Why would you refer to bitcoin as down because of it's ATH? Bitcoin's history is based on roughly 14 years of existence. How long was it trading for 60k? A month? So around 1/168th of its existence you were able to buy or sell it for 60k. It was very easy for an average bitcoiner to completely miss it.

[stompix]

It's not that they forgot. They never cared!

Sometimes I'm becoming as fatalist as you But even if many people don't care, it can make sense to think about the reasons for Bitcoin being "stuck" at this "speculative asset stage" and how this could improve, in particular which incentives could get people to get "on track" to a more P2P cash-friendly stance again.

I'm not really a fatalist, a tiny variation, I don't see it happening based on the current situation, so the radical difference is that I believe change can happen only that we don't have the right ingredients right now, there is no carrot, there is no stick, and the other side is just too tempting.

I've seen it way to many times around here, with users cheering for every shop opening, and then when it comes to buying something they will not do it because Lazlo was stupid for buying a pizza with BTC so I can say it without hesitation that growth based on usage will only start when the possibility of earning x2 or x5  will be the same as from holding Coca cola or Walmart shares. Till then, the coins are too precious to be spent!

And you said incentives? Which ones?
Remember that credit cards and their chargebacks are good for the consumers, but businesses hate them, Bitcoin is good for the business as there are none but consumers won't like it! Cheap fees? Oh, let's not even bring this into the discussion right now in this orc borg monkey clusterfuck!

Oh and one more thing:

I don't see current (particularly mobile) wallet software as that difficult to use. However, I think you're correct that there is room for improvement particularly in the field "protect the user from him/herself". I don't know that many mobile wallets, but for example a simple function only allowing to spend a certain amount per day (as it's common in bank accounts) could help there.

Out of twenty or thirty people I've gone on holiday this year and managed to take a glimpse at their phone when sharing stuff or videos, me and my wife were the only ones that used an adblock. Everyone who noticed this asked us how, as right now I don't know if a single one of them really installed it. Don't underestimate the difficulty of using a wallet, it might be child's play for us, but you can see for yourself in this forum alone how many crypto users still have problems with basic things like setting up fees!

[hatshepsut93]

Out of twenty or thirty people I've gone on holiday this year and managed to take a glimpse at their phone when sharing stuff or videos, me and my wife were the only ones that used an adblock. Everyone who noticed this asked us how, as right now I don't know if a single one of them really installed it. Don't underestimate the difficulty of using a wallet, it might be child's play for us, but you can see for yourself in this forum alone how many crypto users still have problems with basic things like setting up fees!

And I don't think it will improve with future generations. Using smartphones many hours per day is not increasing people's tech literacy if they just scroll a few apps and never bother to learn about safety. Managing passwords is also not something most people do, because they can always just  reset them via email. And people still download files from the first results of google search, which can often contain malware.

[Accardo]

The demand and limited supply of bitcoin work together to affect the price of bitcoin. The halving event has proven to be a good catalyst in the growth of bitcoin price.  But, after the halving, or bullish run that follows it, the price also falls back to a low amount. Because the bear market scare many users away and makes them feel like they're not good investors. like Op said, without the demand, bitcoin price won't make any much positive changes. Hence, when more people stop investing or trading bitcoin, because of its price volatility the price begin to drop, causing more users to pull off their money into fiat. It's realistic that bitcoin will not fail us, if a good number of countries, facing inflation adopts bitcoin as a means of exchange or payment. And the high expectation that bitcoin price will hit fresh ATH, may get the attention of the media. If they begin to publish such trend, more people, who wish to profit money through bitcoin will throw in some money into it.

Your thoughtful insight about factors those can potentially influence the future of Bitcoin's price is indeed valuable. In particular, when assessing the Bitcoin price trajectory within the historical context of halving event and its consequent impact on Bitcoin market. It is important to acknowledge the prevailing economic conditions worldwide. Factors such as, high inflation and interest rates, declining GDP across major economies, tensions among USA, Russia and China, are creating unfavorable environment for investment in risky assets. Therefor despite the historical role of halving event to act as catalyst for price surge, it is possible that substantial increase in Bitcoin price in 2024 may not materialize, what most of Bitcoin enthusiasts are expecting.

That's great, the problems as you mentioned, inflation, conflicts etc affects bitcoin price, yet given time bitcoin outperforms the underlying issues. If the media teaches or promotes the importance of the next halving to their readers and listeners, the growth of bitcoin will still emerge. Regardless of all additional price effects on bitcoin, the most important is adoption; investing more money into bitcoin. Bitcoin have multiple channels where it's promoted, if these people invest time in providing valuable information as other niches do, the price of bitcoin can increase.. The task is meant for everyone to explain carefully to anybody interested into bitcoin. Not about what's happening in the world. The 2021 bull run followed through the pandemic and made it to ATH. And the news about the problems in Ukraine and Russia is no longer hot or trending in some locations, like when it began. Similar to the tensions between USA, China etc, some days it'll no longer be trending, so if bitcoin gets to trend again at any moment, the price will increase. Bitcoin works mostly with adoption and high amount of investment.

[Afnan_faizah]

I think so but it seems that most of merchants still afraid to use btc as medium of payment because the price is still volatile. I think this problem should be fixed, what if in every transaction merchants always get money in form of fiat and cryptocurrency from the customers automatically traded in exchange? it will need certain app to do that. I think BTC still can reach $200k although its mostly traded in exchange site rather than being used by merchants because speculative investors always looking for opportunity to gain their money and BTC provide big opportunity for them.

[TheSpiral]

I think so but it seems that most of merchants still afraid to use btc as medium of payment because the price is still volatile. I think this problem should be fixed, what if in every transaction merchants always get money in form of fiat and cryptocurrency from the customers automatically traded in exchange? it will need certain app to do that. I think BTC still can reach $200k although its mostly traded in exchange site rather than being used by merchants because speculative investors always looking for opportunity to gain their money and BTC provide big opportunity for them.

Yes bitcoin as medium of payment  will be accepted by minimum merchants because all the time it is not successful as if they take it as a payment and suddenly market goes down then they will surely be afraid and will regret for their act. Those businessman who are familiar with bitcoin will not take it serious because they know about the reality of bitcoin but other merchants who don't know prior to it will think that they are in risk.

In past people were innocent so they exchange bitcoin as a payment but today no one will do it as everyone in struggling to make huge money by utilizing less money so they will keep bitcoin for years until they get the cash three times more than the amount they have been used.

[GeorgeJohn]

Let's say Bitcoin beats the all time high and reaches 100k and due to the volatility it goes down to 70k I think people would still consider it as a bear market season. Spreading your time worrying about which market Bitcoin is either bull or bear can be extremely frustrating. 

I am agree with your status that lots of people are unaware of bear and bull market because when the price reduces 5 percent then they consider that time as a bear market but they don't remember the time when bitcoin price was 12k$ or 15k$.

It will be good if investors don't think about bull and bear market because they cannot understand it. Without considering ups and downs just focus on your profit that if investors can manage investment at a specific price then they should do and wait until it increases in value.

The people that should be unaware of bearish and bullish season should be the new investors, but the investors that knows the cranium or the rudiments of cryptocurrency and mostly bitcoin should be able to detect when their is a bearish and when their is no bullish, concentrating on a bearish or bullish as investor it depends on your target and what you want to invest more in bitcoins will determine your target, so I believe a lot of investors scrutinised cryptocurrency price both increment and decrement with the graph or chart of the market to know the exact period that will be the season of bullish and bearish before investment.

[d5000]

growth based on usage will only start when the possibility of earning x2 or x5  will be the same as from holding Coca cola or Walmart shares. Till then, the coins are too precious to be spent!

I hope I interpret your post right - you consider then Bitcoin has to become less volatile (above all to the upside) to boost growth based on usage? (judging from the price of the shares you mention)

The problem is that I see a chicken-egg problem here. Many believe that Bitcoin has to become more popular and only then volatility will lower. Current volatility stats seem to point in that direction but are not totally convincing, because in 2015/2016 volatily also froze down almost to today's levels but then rose again. I think we have still not really made progress here.

So some argue there need to be more bull-bear cycles until that could happen, with a much higher Bitcoin value being expected. I have however my doubts that can work. The market is already much more saturated than in earlier cycles: the upside volatility is going down indeed (2021 high was x3 compared to 2017 high, but 2017 high was x15 compared to 2013 high), but the downside is not. We still lose more than 75% at the lows compared to the previous ATH. I believe thus that we have at most 2 such pure speculative cycles ahead, and they could be disappointing for some, for example the next one could reach a new ATH but fail to cross $100.000. I guess in this case we would simply fall to the current values again, not to 40-50.000. And the next cycle then could be even a double top.

Another option is a really long bear market because the "cycles already don't work". A "Bitcoin is dead" scenario with more than 5 oir even 10 years of bearish action like it occured already with many altcoins, where not even halvings help. Until people wake up and start using it again. The problem is: the speculative action could then re-emerge once there's a light behind the tunnel and nothing would have changed.

So I think there is a mentality change needed in the community, as Bitcoin is not only a technology but also a social system. Of course you can't impose such a change, that's why I wrote about incentives.

And you said incentives? Which ones?
Remember that credit cards and their chargebacks are good for the consumers, but businesses hate them, Bitcoin is good for the business as there are none but consumers won't like it! Cheap fees? Oh, let's not even bring this into the discussion right now in this orc borg monkey clusterfuck!

One factor indeed is that fees must be cheaper, and my best guess is that this could become possible with a combination of better LN software and sidechains/rollups to circunvent the "monkey issue".
I could also imagine more mechanisms to hedge against the crash risk with decentralized options (atomic-swap based or DLC-based) and such stuff. Of course the masses won't use options, but more like an "insurance contract" based on options. I'm quite sure this can be done with smart contracts and stablecoins.
Also better wallet software. I totally get what you mean with your last sentence.
What definitely also would help is a better price theory/model, I think this is not impossible. S2F and similar stuff is "not" a candidate for me.

But yeah, the thread's idea is also to collect more ideas.

[el kaka22]

Without usage as a currency is not something you need to worry about because it is used as a currency every single day. Maybe we do not hear about it because it is not talked about that much but online payments are shifting towards more and more bitcoin, a lot more online websites that started to accept bitcoin and that means that it is going to be possible way more.

I am just waiting for amazon and steam type of companies to get back on the ship, if they do that, even if with just stablecoins, that would be amazing. Something like CBDC could make that work, because seeing the government behind something could make them work a lot better on the long run and should be doing a great return on profit as well for those companies.

[indo1]

I would even say: There'll be no $200,000+ ("digital gold") Bitcoin without usage as a currency.

I agree. this is because paper currency is still necessary and also bitcoin is an investment asset. Even if it is used as a medium of exchange it will still not reduce its effectiveness in becoming an asset to invest in. This is because there are only 21 million bitcoins in the world minus the bitcoins that have been completely lost as those held by their creators. If we continue to study Bitcoin and many people invest here, it is not impossible for Bitcoin to reach a price of $200,000.

[d5000]

Without usage as a currency is not something you need to worry about because it is used as a currency every single day. Maybe we do not hear about it because it is not talked about that much but online payments are shifting towards more and more bitcoin, a lot more online websites that started to accept bitcoin and that means that it is going to be possible way more.

While I don't question that "every single day" there should be at least one real "payment"  with Bitcoin , I don't really see the "shifting" happening at this time, and I'd guess payments make up much less than 5% of transactions (perhaps some hundreds to thousands per day, in reality). Of course there are certain segments like hosting, domains, or gift cards where payments in Bitcoin are somewhat common and there is some acceptance also in mainstream shops, but that was already the case 5-10 years ago.

You may be on something I don't know however. Do you have some stats or examples perhaps? Or why do you think that more payments are happening than people think?

Something like CBDC could make that work,

I don't see any connection between CBDC and Bitcoin acceptance. CBDC is more similar to a state-managed Paypal (the central bank providing services they traditionally provided to banks also to the general public).

[DVlog]

Without usage as a currency is not something you need to worry about because it is used as a currency every single day. Maybe we do not hear about it because it is not talked about that much but online payments are shifting towards more and more bitcoin, a lot more online websites that started to accept bitcoin and that means that it is going to be possible way more.

I am just waiting for amazon and steam type of companies to get back on the ship, if they do that, even if with just stablecoins, that would be amazing. Something like CBDC could make that work, because seeing the government behind something could make them work a lot better on the long run and should be doing a great return on profit as well for those companies.

What I have heard till now Bitcoin is used as a store of value. It was created to be a global currency but it has some limitations that won't let it work as a currency. Its legacy network takes a few minutes to transfer when the network is congested. Transaction fees are also high compared to fiat currencies. Just think you had to pay a 10$ transaction charge for a 20$ coffee. This doesn't make sense. Some gambling sites and few merchants accept it as a currency which doesn't make it one. When you can buy vegetables, fruits, and other daily essentials with Bitcoin it will be considered as a real currency. Till then it is a store of value for me and I am happy about that.

[Sayeds56]

Is bitcoin ever in a bear market? If it goes to 10k, falls to 5k, goes to 20k, falls to 10k, goes to 60k, falls to 30k, and so on, Is there even a bear market? Someone could argue that these are simple corrections in one big bull market, since it keeps going higher, making higher highs and higher lows.
IMO there's a clear growth pattern that we're witnessing here.

I have to agree that at this moment I only see it as a store of value. There's not enough acceptance for me to be able to spend it on the things I need and I don't want to sell it on exchange, especially now when it's so undervalued.

The example you have provided in your post refers to extreme volatility in Bitcoin price, where Bitcoin price often falls to the extent of 80% from its all time high (ATH). However, in the long term, Bitcoin has consistently demonstrated outstanding performance. This reflects one of its core characteristics. In the financial terms, the concept of bear market refers to sustained decline in price of any trade-able asset, often 20% or more from its recent high.

I agree with your viewpoint that Bitcoin primarily functions as store of value, and its role as method of of payment is undergoing evolutionary process that may take long time to fully develop.

[Unbunplease]

What I have heard till now Bitcoin is used as a store of value. It was created to be a global currency but it has some limitations that won't let it work as a currency. Its legacy network takes a few minutes to transfer when the network is congested. Transaction fees are also high compared to fiat currencies. Just think you had to pay a 10$ transaction charge for a 20$ coffee. This doesn't make sense. Some gambling sites and few merchants accept it as a currency which doesn't make it one. When you can buy vegetables, fruits, and other daily essentials with Bitcoin it will be considered as a real currency. Till then it is a store of value for me and I am happy about that.

Yes, you're right. But bitcoin has an undeniable advantage - you can pay with bitcoin in almost any country without changing it for local currency. But still, because of the disadvantages you pointed out, bitcoin may eventually be replaced by some other cryptocurrency

[tread93]

And so what does the model say about the linear timeliness adoption of bitcoin? You never mentioned the actual timeline you just listed the bullet points of it

[Sayeds56]

Yes, you're right. But bitcoin has an undeniable advantage - you can pay with bitcoin in almost any country without changing it for local currency. But still, because of the disadvantages you pointed out, bitcoin may eventually be replaced by some other cryptocurrency

It is correct that Bitcoin can be used for cross border transactions without the need of middleman, as well as serves as convenient method of payment without the hassle of exchanging to other local currencies. However, its widespread adoption as means of purchasing goods and services from any retailer remains an uphill battle due to various hurdles, such as regulatory complexities and need for technological advancement. It may take significant amount of time before these issues are completely resolved.

[d5000]

And so what does the model say about the linear timeliness adoption of bitcoin? You never mentioned the actual timeline you just listed the bullet points of it

Everybody who's trying to sell you a "timeline of adoption" is probably a scammer or simply naive.

The exact evolution of demand and usage for Bitcoin is not predictable. There's Metcalfe's Law, for sure, but in the case of Bitcoin it doesn't help that much, as we don't have good metrics to measure the "user base". You can estimate if adoption/the number of users is improving or not, but the stats you would use for that are too inexact to be able to build a timeline.

In the particular model I've presented in the OP the state of "usage as a currency" depends on many factors. It depends on technologic evolution (for example, Layer-2 solutions to keep fees low, easily usable wallet software), but also of social factors, like the composition of the Bitcoin users universe (hodlers, traders, currency-users) and their beliefs and "mentality". For example, the current mentality of the average Bitcoin user ("Buy Bitcoin to become rich") tends to slow down the currency usage because they spread ideas like "Don't spend your precious Bitcoins!" (forgetting that you can also earn them). Just read a Reddit thread which concludes with exactly these words (although I think this user more likely sold most of his BTC for fiat, and this is not what this thread is about at all, but people then develop a "hoarding" mentality and tend to not use their BTC as a currency).

What must be achieved for bullet point 2 to become true and open the path to bullet point 3 and 4 is more "circularity" in Bitcoin usage. I.e. people should consider both spend and earn (or re-buy, if your work is incompatible with that) Bitcoins, and if they want slowly accumulate this way even better, but not only hoard (hodl) them.

[stompix]

I think so but it seems that most of merchants still afraid to use btc as medium of payment because the price is still volatile. I think this problem should be fixed, what if in every transaction merchants always get money in form of fiat and cryptocurrency from the customers automatically traded in exchange? it will need certain app to do that

Those have been around for years, Bitpay was established in 2011!

growth based on usage will only start when the possibility of earning x2 or x5  will be the same as from holding Coca cola or Walmart shares. Till then, the coins are too precious to be spent!

I hope I interpret your post right - you consider then Bitcoin has to become less volatile (above all to the upside) to boost growth based on usage? (judging from the price of the shares you mention)

Not quite!
It can still be volatile but it has to reach a point where future growth can't be possible in double digits no matter how bullish you are, all currencies can become volatile for a period and even now with all the drops and ups Bitcoin is doing any major ones either, still confined in 10% a month. The problem is that many see the 1 million or more mark as possible in a bull run or even believe Saylor dribbles about $5 million, would those spend if they think at least 100x from now on is possible in a year time? Of course not, they will keep their coins in their wallets and not spend a dime and you can't really blame them.

So I think there is a mentality change needed in the community, as Bitcoin is not only a technology but also a social system. Of course, you can't impose such a change, that's why I wrote about incentives.

Agree with you but the change has happened and continues to happen in the opposite direction.

One factor indeed is that fees must be cheaper, and my best guess is that this could become possible with a combination of better LN software and sidechains/rollups to circumvent the "monkey issue".

LN alone is proving to be too much of a hurdle for the average Joe and even for merchants, if we're going to overcomplicate this is going to end in failure.

Without usage as a currency is not something you need to worry about because it is used as a currency every single day. Maybe we do not hear about it because it is not talked about that much but online payments are shifting towards more and more bitcoin, a lot more online websites that started to accept bitcoin and that means that it is going to be possible way more.

We don't need to hear about it because we have the blockchain.
Before the ordinals,  periods of 1sat/b fee were common which meant that the usage was below the 400k/tx a day possible, if you look at the number of confirmed tx you can see that it averaged 250k a day for the last year, way below 2021.
https://www.blockchain.com/explorer/charts/n-transactions
Merchants accepting bitcoin was part of the problem but right now it's people willing to buy something for Bitcoin!