Did anyone notice this pattern?

[bayu7adi]

If this cycle indeed materializes, it would pose a significant challenge to market manipulators. A pump to all-time high (ATH) prices should ideally occur without any follow-through momentum. In other words, the more speculation that arises, the stronger the opposing force will be to thwart their expectations and minimize losses caused by manipulators.

When the market genuinely gravitates towards the majority of speculators, it becomes a massive giveaway for Bitcoin holders. However, if the market doesn't align with the speculators, the likelihood of alternative plans being devised by insiders is a distinct possibility.

[GreatArkansas]

(....)
I know that there are multiple reasons for Bitcoin reaching a new ATH. I do understand that cannot be based on the law of averages. What do you guys think, Is the law of average work here or I am just speculating it?
(...)

For me, even if we say yes, it's still not guaranteed especially since we can't identify or difficult to predict when it will happen, when we will experience that all-time high again.
There are a lot of things to consider now and basis, like volume we have now versus before, there are a lot of players right now versus before. There are a lot of people who have already been introduced to Bitcoin versus before.
So all-time high could be here very soon or maybe more time in the future, we don't know now.

[armanda90]

I am excited with OP discussing and seems will be true for upcoming halving time, its not instant progress raising all new high time for several kinds altcoin or Bitcoin its self and need time almost one year above for making new ATH. Since last three halving Bitcoin edition looks correct and possibility upcoming halving few months later will the same happening last halving edition or not? How possibility for new all time high price of bitcoin will raise up one year later or keep going without waiting longer time after halving bitcoin is coming.
Not only with tradition of halving only but also we have check with pattern and other potential from inside or outside to make Bitcoin will raise higher price or keep going down during have coming time with halving.

[wxa7115]

OP I think most of us are really familiar with such patterns as we used to observe such sorts of seasonal posts on social media,  But what's so eye-catching in it is it cant really change the current market sentiments except for bringing a bit of motivation to the newbies (for that as well I'm not sure will it work or not). The time cant be predicted exactly but we can judge the season according to the sentiments.

Even these stats are not evident in their consistency, such patterns are just used to shape the timeline for the exact speculation we cant just realize on the, even the efficient speculation for ATH is not possible all goes with the hype & sentiments (Latest developments that time), mostly narratives provide the base to every ATH cycle currently the most promising narrative close to me is ETF approvals but it may really change with the passage of time, or may not.

And one interesting aspect is that once traders are aware of that pattern now they can influence it, so if a lot of buying pressure is generated this could become a self-fulling prophecy, however if the buying pressure is not there it is possible many traders will take a position against it and the expected ATH may not happen at that date.

Now with that being said, at worst there could be a delay on the appearance of the ATH, but it will still appear, as I do not think the growth on the price of bitcoin can be contained for long.

[philipma1957]

I suppose one could argue that with 2020 halving, a new ATH was reached earlier than 1.5 years after the event if you consider the time of peaking above the previous ATH point and not the eventual total peak before the bear market. But it's possible to look at it from your point of view and see this pattern as well. Of course, just 3 times isn't enough to say it's a regularity, but since we've got nothing left apart from a pretty short Bitcoin history, it makes sense to try to base our guesses on that data. But if the new ATH is reached around a year and a half after halving, that doesn't mean that Bitcoin won't recover earlier because it can reach a bit over the previous ATH significantly earlier even based on historical data, as it did only 7 months after halving of 2020.

And china tore the heart out of the 2021 April move by shutting down 50% of the worlds hash.

So I would argue like you  may 2020 to April  2021 is 11 months  and that the cycle was broken by outside forces (China).

BTC seems to get ½ ing price shock in about 4 year cycle based on the ½ ing

So I would say

dec 2012 ½ ing
nov 2013 ath
may 2016 ½ ing
dec  2017 ath
may 2020 ½ ing
April 2021 ath

which does not match the op but does match reality closer

[Don Pedro Dinero]

You are basically doing TA without using charts. The problem with TA is that it may never replicate the past events. It is like playing coin flipping. Just because you got tails 99 times in a row, doesn’t mean that it will be tails again in the 100th game. On the other hand we also know that history doesn’t always repeat but it often rhymes. Maybe this time there will be another ATH but it won’t happen in 1.5 years… maybe this time it will take 3 years… The real question is, what will you do if there isn’t a new ath for the next 3 years? Will you give up and sell or will you hodl?  TA is like writing a story book and then actually believing that it is real.

It is as you say. I'm sick and tired of seeing past analyses of this style that break down at the next event. Even in this cycle ATH's predictions were much higher based on a repetition of price behaviour in past cycles. And all the predictions failed. Now as in this cycle the ATH has been much lower than in the previous cycle we have to intrude that variable and expect a more moderate return for the next one.

Regarding the halvings, as you say, the same thing. The OP takes an average of only 3 data. If the next cycle the ATH occurs 6 months after the halving or after 2 years or not at all, it will break the 1.3 year average to get a new ATH.

[xSkylarx]

That is also what we are speculating for as again history repeats itself. That is why we are accumulating bitcoin right now because we do hope that the new ATH will happen again.
 
It is not guaranteed that it will happen again because what if it doesn't happen after halving which is the first time in history that it won't reach its price? But because of the adoption of the country right now we can really see that it will happen sooner.

[Darker45]

Let's talk about differences.
2013 brought us 2 all time highs in one year with something like 8 months between them and then the biggest exchange went bankrupt and crashed the price.
2017 was cut short by bitcoin futures opening and speculators betting against bitcoin to crash it.
2020 faced Chinese mining ban which reduced the price of bitcoin by 50% from 60 to 30k.

Bitcoin works like a sophisticated mechanism so people think it's repeating pattern of blocks and halvings will make the price act the same way every time, but it doesn't.
Every time something different happens but this event stops Bitcoin from pushing higher and staying in the FOMO phase for too long. Usually it's just weeks and then somebody does something to stop it.

Although I don't discount the possibility that regular halving events have more or less significant effects on the price, it could indeed be true that the price is actually just moving up and down according to certain factors which are mostly external.

If we remove halving, how would the charts look like? It is possible that they would look almost exactly the same. The price rises, falls, consolidates, recovers, reaches an ATH, corrects, and so on and so forth with or without the halving. We put the halving schedules there and so it seems they play a significant role.

But what if 3 years after the halving next year, the US suddenly announces that Bitcoin is certified as a legal tender? Would it not create an ATH and break the pattern? Or what if months before the next halving, the SEC approves all Bitcoin spot ETF applications? Would it not be an external factor big enough to create an ATH and, again, surprise everybody who put too much weight on such pattern? Or what if 1-2 years after the halving, the US declared Bitcoin as illegal and everybody who is found using it shall be penalized? Would there still be a new ATH?

[adaseb]

This is what everybody is thinking and it’s what makes me question whether or not it will happen. Everyone expects bitcoin to make a new ATH shortly after the halving.

However since everybody is expecting this then there is a greater chance that it will just either go to ATH before halving or don’t reach ATH for many years after. This pattern is just becoming way too common.

[legendbtc]

2012 halving - New ATH reached around 1 year after
2016 halving - New ATH reached around 1.5 years after
2020 halving - New ATH reached around 1.5 years after

Bull season and ATH always appear 1 year or more after halving. That means we will have a sideways market after the halving but what I see people expecting more is that people are expecting bitcoin to increase in price immediately when the halving happens. Many people even think that when the halving is approaching, bitcoin will not be able to decrease any further and people will buy more, so the bitcoin price will soon recover and increase in price as soon as the halving takes place. This is the wrong thinking that many people are making. The future is unpredictable, but if we look to the past, we can see that bull season is still quite far away.

[elevates]

As per the replies, most of you guys did agree with the pattern. Does that mean we would see a bull run after approximately 1.3 years from halving? The current situation of Bitcoin ETFs and Elon Musk's tweet about Bitcoin might act as a catalyst to the bull run. I suspect that if it had to start it would have been now. What I firmly believe is that a bull run after the next halving would take place after 2 years. The current global economic situation does not make that ecosystem, to see Bitcoin breaking a new ATH in just 1 year or 1.3 years time after the halving. Do you guys agree with my point of view? If not then I would know the reason.

[dansus021]

I think anyone noticing about the pattern the bull season of Bitcoin would be crazy since miner will get half portion of today reward and the newly minted coin will join circulation but not like previous year from now bitcoin will be scarce to get. Its like you mining gold but your pit is slowly not producing more gold.

I do believe this trend/pattern will continue until all bitcoin has been mined



Tho we still early guys - https://www.blockchaincenter.net/en/bitcoin-rainbow-chart/

[Marvell1]

...

However since everybody is expecting this then there is a greater chance that it will just either go to ATH before halving or don’t reach ATH for many years after. This pattern is just becoming way too common.

This hypothesis is also being discussed quite a bit on my local social networks. Many people think that when everyone knows and is waiting for the price to increase after halving to make a profit, who will buy bitcoin at a high price so we can take profit? I don't think the game will get easier and people will get rich so easily. But it's all just speculation and no one knows anything.

Personally, I still believe that history will repeat itself until we create new history. However, I always prepare myself for a historical scenario that will not repeat itself so that no matter what happens, I will not be surprised.

[HONDACD125]

This is what everybody is thinking and it’s what makes me question whether or not it will happen. Everyone expects bitcoin to make a new ATH shortly after the halving.

However since everybody is expecting this then there is a greater chance that it will just either go to ATH before halving or don’t reach ATH for many years after. This pattern is just becoming way too common.

Everyone here is waiting for the Bitcoin bull season, and almost all bitcoin investors know the Bitcoin halving after which the price of Bitcoin often starts to rise. If everyone is expecting Bitcoin to hit an all-time high right after the halving,I don't think it can happen immediately. Anything can happen in the crypto currency market, but it has not happened before.If you look at the history of Bitcoin,and if you look at the graph he made, Bitcoin never reached its peak immediately after the halving, but rather later.


Although everyone is expecting Bitcoin to reach an all-time high before the halving, it is unlikely in my opinion. As the majority of experts are predicting a 2024/2025 bull season, it seems impossible for Bitcoin to do so before the halving. It takes a year after halving, but chances of more years are low, so we should wait patiently. We often make assumptions based on our analysis, but our assessments are not necessarily correct every time, but history should not be ignored.

[Oasisman]

2012 halving - New ATH reached around 1 year after
2016 halving - New ATH reached around 1.5 years after
2020 halving - New ATH reached around 1.5 years after

I know that there are multiple reasons for Bitcoin reaching a new ATH. I do understand that cannot be based on the law of averages. What do you guys think, Is the law of average work here or I am just speculating it?

This pattern is what everyone in crypto space are looking forward to. Majority of the people here knew it's going to be the post-halving where a new ATH will happen with an unprecedented range. I dont know if the law of averages can be applied in this kind of even, but it's more likely the market sentiments that's making a great impact to create this pattern. Pre-halving until the halving takes place is like an accumulation phase, then moving forward a few months the accumulation continues creating a gradual upward price movements, then a year after is where the bullrun officially starts.

[davis196]

You are kinda wrong about the 2020 halving.
If I remember this correctly, the Bitcoin price went up to 35K USD in the beginning of 2021, which is several months after the halving. 35K USD was the ATH price back then, but the price broke the record and increased to levels above 59K USD in the spring of 2021, which was the biggest ATH in the history of Bitcoin. You are counting only the highest ATH after the 2020 halving, not the ATH that was before it.
Yes, many people think that Bitcoin is moving in cycle and that there's a price pattern, but this pattern won't continue forever and we shouldn't rely on such predictions all the time. I also believe in a 2025 ATH, but there's no guarantee that it will happen.

[stompix]

there are rational reasons

many large mining farms do not audit thier costs/profit daily. instead they buy allotments of asics and electric contracts to last 2+ years. meaning they calculate cost vs earnings every 1-2 years(for tax and upgrade purposes).

Oh yeah, the large mining farms and ASIC owners of 2010 and 2014!
Definitely!

the other factor is that when halvings occur there is a rush of asic purchases. which is where people double up+ their hashrate to cling onto a comparable yield of rewards. this increase of hashrate and hardware also puts pressure on prices. again there is a delay

So, if:
John Alice and Dicky each have 10TH/s and they see the halving coming they each buy new gear in order to double...yelds...what???
Wait a minute!
If John had 10th/s which earned him 5$ at a cost of 2.$ , if he doubles the hashrate at the same cost as electricity isn't going to change in price he is going to make again 5$ but a ta cost of 4$, so how are this comparable yields?

Let's re-write this:
John Alice and Dicky had 30TH/s earning them 10$ at 3$ cost, now they are only earning 5$ at 3$ cost, they double their hashrate for a situation where they will have 60TH/s earning them 10$ but costing them 6$, so the only thing that comes clean out of this is that 10 years later and yous till don't know how mining works and it's again proof you've never run a business in your life!

Furthermore, in 2020 at the halving the hashrate was 115.27 EH/s, it took two years and five months till October 2020 for it to double at an average of 254.80 EH/s for the first time passing 230EH/s.

Write this down and repeat it every single time you have the opportunity, difficulty follows the price with a delay, the price never follows the difficulty!

[Blitzboy]

Now, while your observations are fascinating, the dataset  is dangerously small. You have three distinct instances and you're attempting to draw a consistent pattern from them? Thats supposition, not analysis. And believe me, in the world of crypto, speculation can be as dangerous as misinformation.

With so little information, your faith in the "law of averages" could easily mislead you and anyone else who reads into it. But there is an exception: if enough people buy into this idea and act on it, it could very well become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Simply because a lot of traders anticipate a response, the market might act approprpiately. Therefore, even though your hypothesis is unproven, if enough individuals accept it, it has the potential to influence market behavior. But keep in mind that this is still dangerous. Dont get too comfortable.

[uchegod-21]

2012 halving - New ATH reached around 1 year after
2016 halving - New ATH reached around 1.5 years after
2020 halving - New ATH reached around 1.5 years after

I know that there are multiple reasons for Bitcoin reaching a new ATH. I do understand that cannot be based on the law of averages. What do you guys think, Is the law of average work here or I am just speculating it?

This pattern cannot be disputed, but what is more interesting here is that, before the halving, you will have the option to purchase bitcoin at a price that is lower.  It is more likely that it will not go beyond the price it was at the time of the halving. It may take a year or more for bitcoin to reach its new all-time high after halving, but if you can acquire it at a cheaper price, bitcoin achieving its new all-time high in one or more years will be in your advantage of a profitable outcome. This should not deter anyone who intends to accumulate bitcoin ahead of the halving and subsequently hitting the new ATH.

My fear is if ATH will actually hold this time around. The hype is accumulating, by the end of this year it will gear up the more and by the first quarter of next year we will be expectant of it. If this season's ATH fails, it will not be fair with the cryptocurrency market.
I have also read somewhere that this will be the highest halving in the recent time, which I consider as purely speculative.
The pattern noted by Op is verifiable and for it to happen in the past 3 halving, there is high tendency it will repeat this time around and that is the optimism of every bitcoiner.

[Hamza2424]

And one interesting aspect is that once traders are aware of that pattern now they can influence it, so if a lot of buying pressure is generated this could become a self-fulling prophecy, however if the buying pressure is not there it is possible many traders will take a position against it and the expected ATH may not happen at that date.

Now with that being said, at worst there could be a delay on the appearance of the ATH, but it will still appear, as I do not think the growth on the price of bitcoin can be contained for long.

Well, in context I'm not sure if are you quoting my narrative point of ETF or OP's point of the pattern. But I think in both scenarios, traders are not dumb, they really carefully analyze the market according to sentiments and major developments as well as the FA & TA. As far as it is concerned the buying pressure on the hype of ETF.

The buying pressure is not gonna created by the experienced trades as till that time most likely they would have filled up their bags and done with accumulation before, this pressure will be created by the Institutional investment capital and the new comers are gonna be all in on FOMO. That is really interesting how far this narrative is gonna support Bitcoin in reaching the ATH, Hmm also be ready to expect of unexpected  .