Is it possible to theorically profit from welcome bonus? Example with stake.com

[Bsky01]

I made an account recently on stake.com i was looking for a way to try to profit from a 200% welcome bonus.

I went on kick.com streamers took an affiliate link to have a 200% bonus on my first deposit
I deposited 200$ and got a bonus of 400$. So my balance is 600$
The requirement is to wager the whole amount 35 times so i needed to wager 600*35=21000$. (This is only on spins while on original games which have a 99% RTP your wagering is only 25% effective so i would need to wager 84000$)

My strategy was to allin on wheel game with the high risk setting and 10 segments. I could use my bonus to do so.
So in this game i have a 10% to win 9.9X my bet.
So i have a 10% chance to win and have a balance of 5940$ and a 90% chance to lose

In the 10% of cases i still need to meet the bonus requirements. So i can wager 84000$ on a 99% RTP game (like low risk plinko). I will lose on average 840$ and my balance will be 5100$ on average.

It would mean that with my deposit of 200$ i can end up with 5100$ in 10% of cases and with 0$ in 90% of cases. Which is an average of 510$.
So i have a positive excepted value of 310$?

This is a very high risk strategy, i did this and lost all but i had 10% to make a big win so it doesnt seems stupid to me.

Do you see something wrong in the whole strategy? Did i miss something?
I could try my chance one time for each casino who offer this kind of deposit bonus if they allow this strategy ?
Could it be considered as bonus abuse? (For me its not as i am only making one account)

[Odohu]

I have registered in several gambling platforms and have receievd welcome bonus in most of them but I have not really made withdrawable profits with any of them. Part of the reason, as I have come to understand,  is recklessness as I rarely make conscious effort to follow my rules. Maybe since the money is free, it becomes less of a burden if it is lost.

On the other hand, when I fund with my capital, I follow my rules religiously and many times I do win and make withdrawals. 

[Wapfika]

Do you see something wrong in the whole strategy? Did i miss something?
I could try my chance one time for each casino who offer this kind of deposit bonus if they allow this strategy ?
Could it be considered as bonus abuse? (For me its not as i am only making one account)

I find it too much risky since your strategy is purely revolving on a 10% chance which is very low winning percentage while your target is 35 times wager of your original bankroll and the 200% deposit bonus. You should play slowly using low house edge games or rely on much volatile games hoping to win a huge jackpot to hve a great headstart for your bankroll.

Your computation assume that you will 1/10 guarantee while you can lose more than that before you can win a single spin since every bet is not related to each other winning percentage. X35 roll over requirements is too much for calculated bet strategy of yours. Use much slower strategy using low house edge games then play 50:50 chance game to recover some of your loss to average your risk.

[Oshosondy]

The requirement is to wager the whole amount 35 times so i needed to wager 600*35=21000$.

And you think you are going to win? The chance of losing is far more than 90% and the chance of winning is far less less than 10%.

I could try my chance one time for each casino who offer this kind of deposit bonus if they allow this strategy ?

Just know that welcome deposit bonus can be different on other exchanges, it may have different rules and it may not be up to 200%.

I have registered in several gambling platforms and have receievd welcome bonus in most of them but I have not really made withdrawable profits with any of them. Part of the reason, as I have come to understand,  is recklessness as I rarely make conscious effort to follow my rules. Maybe since the money is free, it becomes less of a burden if it is lost.

That is just it. For me there are some that I have won 3x or more before and able to withdraw the money that I won. But I noticed that the ones that I went for 25x or other very high odds in the past are the ones I easily mostly and all the time easily lose. They are bonuses, some people will use it to accumulate many games, expecting to win higher amount, but later lead to loss.

[Bsky01]

Do you see something wrong in the whole strategy? Did i miss something?
I could try my chance one time for each casino who offer this kind of deposit bonus if they allow this strategy ?
Could it be considered as bonus abuse? (For me its not as i am only making one account)

I find it too much risky since your strategy since your strategy is purely revolving on a 10% chance which is very low winning percentage while your target is 35 times wager of your original bankroll and the 200% deposit bonus. You should play slowly using low house edge games or rely on much volatile games hoping to win a huge jackpot to hve a great headstart for your bankroll.

Your computation assume that you will 1/10 guarantee while you can lose more than that before you can win a single spin since every bet is not related to each other winning percentage. X35 roll over requirements is too much for calculated bet strategy of yours. Use much slower strategy using low house edge games then play 50:50 chance game to recover some of your loss to average your risk.

This is indeed very risky, i could aswell reduce the risk splitting the amount in two to have something like 20% chance.

The goal is to have a low chance to hit a big amount then if you win it will be really easy to do your wager, while with a standard strategy you tend to slowly lose all your balance before meeting the wagering requirement.

Indeed you can hit a jackpot playing slots, but what are the chances? I think its way lower than 10%.
I would be okay with your strategy if we could calculate this.