Will the SEC approve BTC ETF in the coming 23 days?

[hd49728]

Gary Gensler was voted to be SEC. chair with a 5-year term which will end in 2026, 2 years after a next President Election in the USA.

Even if he stays at the SEC. as their chair, he will face with more restrictions when the politics in the USA. change a lot after 2024 President Election. Recent months in 2023, we already witnessed many hearings and challenging questions against many unreasonable decisions from SEC. He failed to answer many questions in the Congress hearing and he will face with more challenging questions in future hearings.

The failed lawsuit recently is another red flag for SEC. and I believe we will see a first approval for Bitcoin Spot ETF in the nation. I expect it will happen after the 2024 President Election, not sooner.

[adaseb]

Most likely it will be delayed again. I read that blackrock already knows it’s going to be delayed at least till first quarter of next year. Then it will most likely be approved because by then any technical issues that SEC has with the physical etf should be solved.

I would actually be very surprised if it was approved next month. Keep in mind that if it gets approved it’ll be a while before it goes live. And when it goes live hopefully the launch won’t be the peak of the cycle like last time.

[darkangel11]

Gary Gensler was voted to be SEC. chair with a 5-year term which will end in 2026, 2 years after a next President Election in the USA.

Even if he stays at the SEC. as their chair, he will face with more restrictions when the politics in the USA. change a lot after 2024 President Election. Recent months in 2023, we already witnessed many hearings and challenging questions against many unreasonable decisions from SEC. He failed to answer many questions in the Congress hearing and he will face with more challenging questions in future hearings.

The failed lawsuit recently is another red flag for SEC. and I believe we will see a first approval for Bitcoin Spot ETF in the nation. I expect it will happen after the 2024 President Election, not sooner.

It doesn't work like that. He's not bound to be the chair for 5 years but depends on politicians and their support. If the SEC chairman is nominated by 1 party and that party loses the election during his term, the chair resigns. Gensler was nominated by Biden, so if you hate him, pray that Biden loses the election. When it happens you'll get rid of 2 enemies of financial progress at the same time.
If you read more about how the system works you'll see that SEC is just a puppet in the hands of the administration and the current one is scared of the situation the dollar is in and the fight against crypto is a result of that.

[Z390]

I think it makes sense that they delay this ETF thing, they will one day approve it, but we are in the wrong time to get ETF approval right now, it's one of the things that can make Bitcoin surge higher, so why approve it now? It makes no sense.

This is why I believe that the master mind behind crypto market are very smart, they know what to do to cause a bigger panic and dumps, believe me, if they want it to happen it will happen, they understand the market behaviour more than every other crypto investors.

This is also why I believe that as more as the government hate crypto, they are secretly benefiting from it, I believe that the government are also investing in crypto most especially into Bitcoin, yet they appear to hate it.

When the time is right, all ETFs will be approved, it benefits no one if they approve it now, because the pump will be short lived.

[Wend]

The SEC has repeatedly rejected ETFs without reason, and even though they lost the case against Grayscale, they continued to reject other ETFs days later without providing a valid reason. So I'm not surprised that they continued to delay and extend it until next year. After all, even if they lose their case against Grayscale in court, but the decision to accept or reject an ETF application still belongs to them. So don't expect too much of any ETF being approved while the battle between the SEC and cryptocurrencies is still very intense.

[DeathAngel]

I don’t think we will see a spot etf approved in the next 23 days. I think the final decision on the Blackrock application is Q1 or Q2 of 2024, pretty sure it’s March 2024. I don’t think they will approve another one first before Blackrock. That will be the first, Blackrock have an insanely high % of approval rates for their etf applications so I don’t think the sec will reject Blackrock’s.

[philipma1957]

I don’t think so. Tbh I am not sure what they are waiting for. They don’t say “yes” and they don’t say “no” too.  Maybe they are waiting for a big price drop so they can buy the dip and then approve the etf. That makes some sense. It is probably better to stop thinking about it at this point. We don’t even know if this etf will affect bitcoin in a positive way. The prices will jump in the short term that’s for sure but what about the long term? I don’t want bitcoin to be a boring boomer asset like gold.

Fuck you "boring boomer asset like gold."

First off gold predates boomers.

Boomers such as myself know silver has far more upside than gold so we stack silver.

Back to this thread. I would bet me left nut that they will delay this til after Mount Gox which was pushed to Oct 2024.

Since I no longer bet (basically I am much like a guy that buys high and sells low mmm can't remember his name)

I will go contrarian and predict a yes but in 25 days not 23. That would be Oct 20 2023.  It is a lock

[LogitechMouse]

A lot of speculation has been ramping up that the SEC has no option but to approve the BTC EFT Proposal from various companies. This makes me wonder. What if the SEC doesn't approve it? What if they intend to prolong the announcement would you still keep your hope highs.

Honestly, I am ready to accept anything that will come up during the period as we await the announcement because I see every possible means of approval or rejection as an opportunity to step on

No.

According to the Youtuber that I always watch, I think the SEC can postpone their decision 2 times, and the final day where they will be forced to release their decision will be somewhere around the month of February next year 2024. In short, I expect at least that SEC will only release the result of this filing of a Spot Bitcoin ETF at around February of next year. Don't expect too much with this especially when the current chair of the SEC is Gary Gensler, and we know him as an anti-crypto just because of his involvement with FTX.

They will not approve it this year. That's my prediction, but if the worse thing happens, and they rejected it, I don't know, but it might cause a major downfall towards the price of Bitcoin. I might be wrong since I'm just predicting, but let's see what can happen in the upcoming months. Don't expect too much though.

[Ale88]

The answer is no, they will not accept the ETF in the coming 23 days, but they will also not reject it, instead, they will delay it. And will extend the dates, in my opinion, they wanted to use this news or hype which will be created due to the approval of ETFs, as fuel to boost the BTC price up, upper than we all have expected. Like a bonus.

I agree with you when you saying that the ETF(s) won't be approved nor rejected, simply delayed, and this is what is going to happen also for the next dates until when they reach the very last one, which is in March/April 2024 if I remember correctly. This will help the big funds to buy even more bitcoins at a lower price because as soon as the ETF(s) will be approved there is a very high probability to see an important price surge.

You are right, and that's what they are doing, because many big analyses and news channels like Coindesk etc. etc. made statements and analyses or covered this topic, indicating that, the SEC will accept the ETFs because it is to their own benefit. Why would they move away the free money, I know the risk involved in such things is so high but the SEC and governmental organizations do know how to keep their hand clean and how to blame others and how can they seize funds if things go wrong path.

I hope you are getting where I am going at.

For me it's not even about keeping their hands clean, is that in the USA the lobbies have more power than the actual government, and until when there was one fund that, from time to time, would ask for a BTC ETF then it was easy to say no. Now we are talking about 6-7 funds valued trillions of dollars, if they want a BTC ETF, they are going to get it, one way or another.

[Best-mary]

The answer is no, they will not accept the ETF in the coming 23 days, but they will also not reject it, instead, they will delay it. And will extend the dates, in my opinion, they wanted to use this news or hype which will be created due to the approval of ETFs, as fuel to boost the BTC price up, upper than we all have expected. Like a bonus.

I agree with you when you saying that the ETF(s) won't be approved nor rejected, simply delayed, and this is what is going to happen also for the next dates until when they reach the very last one, which is in March/April 2024 if I remember correctly. This will help the big funds to buy even more bitcoins at a lower price because as soon as the ETF(s) will be approved there is a very high probability to see an important price surge.

You are right, and that's what they are doing, because many big analyses and news channels like Coindesk etc. etc. made statements and analyses or covered this topic, indicating that, the SEC will accept the ETFs because it is to their own benefit. Why would they move away the free money, I know the risk involved in such things is so high but the SEC and governmental organizations do know how to keep their hand clean and how to blame others and how can they seize funds if things go wrong path.

I hope you are getting where I am going at.

For me it's not even about keeping their hands clean, is that in the USA the lobbies have more power than the actual government, and until when there was one fund that, from time to time, would ask for a BTC ETF then it was easy to say no. Now we are talking about 6-7 funds valued trillions of dollars, if they want a BTC ETF, they are going to get it, one way or another.

That also we need to keep in mind. But what will be the outcome for those who don't know the manipulation behind all these.. Honestly, like I said before I won't stress myself. Although I will keep watch of whatever they're doing because the strategy I will be using won't risk me like some are already getting liquidated with the way things are going

[terrific]

We don't know.
What's good here is whether SEC approves any of those Bitcoin ETF applications or not, we're not going to make a deal about it.
But you know who's going to make a big deal about it? The medias that have been following them all over these applications from the very start.
And it's also because there have been etf applications years ago but none of them got approved, maybe this time is a different story to tell.

[serjent05]

No one knows but my belief is inclined to no even though some recent applicants are bullish that they will get approved.  No one knows what the SEC is thinking.  They are like hot and cold when it comes to cryptocurrency so we cannot be sure whether they will approve BTC ETF in the coming days.

If it gets approved then we might see some change in the Bitcoin market sentiment.  It might trigger some hype and Bitcoin might recover its price temporarily.  It would be a breather for the Bitcoin market before the halving event.

[panganib999]

They have no option, sooner or later they will have to bring the bitcoin ETF to the table and no one will have anything to say about it. The problem here is that they are delaying as much as possible until such a fiasco comes around where they can confidently can the whole thing. Gensler is a massive twat for this and I hate that despite the fact no one even likes him, he's still out there sitting pretending to be the beacon of trust for the public when all he really does is protect the collective interest of the 1 percenters.

So depending on how bitcoin performs or behaves in the next coming months or so, they may have a chance to stop the BTC ETF altogether, or be forced to play the hand they are dealt with and allow bitcoins to be usable, tradable as a general asset.

[o48o]

The answer is no, they will not accept the ETF in the coming 23 days, but they will also not reject it, instead, they will delay it. And will extend the dates, in my opinion, they wanted to use this news or hype which will be created due to the approval of ETFs, as fuel to boost the BTC price up, upper than we all have expected. Like a bonus.

But, if we look at the long run and ask whether they will approve it or not, then I think they have no other option but to approve them all because they will have more benefit from these approvals, as exposure of BTC will increase and people who are not into BTC investment yet, will start to make investments and this will ultimately increase their (country) income via taxes and by other means. Overall, all they need is more investors, who can buy their shares.

Plus, we should not make SEC an entity that would have that much impact on the industry, I mean, there is no doubt that they do have an impact on the market, but we all should not make decisions according to them because they are just working in US and BTC is being used in worldwide, if they don't accept BTC ETFs then another country would approve that and then the investors will move to that country and all the profits will be theirs. And the US can not let that happen.

Who is "they"? Because that's not how SEC could operate even in theory. You are saying SEC is corrupted while they are literally one of the organisations created against corruption. I totally understand someone's mindset if they thought it as just another company that wants to make profits. But they don't need outside funding. They get all the money they need via US government, so they have insanely big budget. And organisations like SEC have to have full transparency and auditability about everything. So they are not going to play with bitcoin markets or hold bitcoin. That would be insane. I am guessing even the people who work there would be too afraid to hold it as if it would go up because of something SEC would do, they would get jailed for insider trading.

[Zlantann]

The SEC has repeatedly rejected ETFs without reason, and even though they lost the case against Grayscale, they continued to reject other ETFs days later without providing a valid reason. So I'm not surprised that they continued to delay and extend it until next year. After all, even if they lose their case against Grayscale in court, but the decision to accept or reject an ETF application still belongs to them. So don't expect too much of any ETF being approved while the battle between the SEC and cryptocurrencies is still very intense.

Until the SEC develops robust regulatory and legal infrastructure to control the Bitcoin spot ETF, they may never approve it. The agency has always claimed that price volatility and proneness of the sector to fraud and manipulation are the reasons why they have refused to approve any application. From the current disposition of Gary Gensler, there is no sign that he has shifted grounds on his skepticism about Bitcoin. We just have to wait until the deadlines of those applications to see the SEC report on them. If these reports are not favorable to the applicants they can seek redress in the court. But a more Bitcoin-friendly government will be the easiest means of getting approval.

[fuguebtc]

The answer is no, they will not accept the ETF in the coming 23 days, but they will also not reject it, instead, they will delay it. And will extend the dates, in my opinion, they wanted to use this news or hype which will be created due to the approval of ETFs, as fuel to boost the BTC price up, upper than we all have expected. Like a bonus.

But, if we look at the long run and ask whether they will approve it or not, then I think they have no other option but to approve them all because they will have more benefit from these approvals, as exposure of BTC will increase and people who are not into BTC investment yet, will start to make investments and this will ultimately increase their (country) income via taxes and by other means. Overall, all they need is more investors, who can buy their shares.

Plus, we should not make SEC an entity that would have that much impact on the industry, I mean, there is no doubt that they do have an impact on the market, but we all should not make decisions according to them because they are just working in US and BTC is being used in worldwide, if they don't accept BTC ETFs then another country would approve that and then the investors will move to that country and all the profits will be theirs. And the US can not let that happen.

Who is "they"? Because that's not how SEC could operate even in theory. You are saying SEC is corrupted while they are literally one of the organisations created against corruption. I totally understand someone's mindset if they thought it as just another company that wants to make profits. But they don't need outside funding. They get all the money they need via US government, so they have insanely big budget. And organisations like SEC have to have full transparency and auditability about everything. So they are not going to play with bitcoin markets or hold bitcoin. That would be insane. I am guessing even the people who work there would be too afraid to hold it as if it would go up because of something SEC would do, they would get jailed for insider trading.

In theory, what you say is not wrong, but don't forget that human greed is bottomless. As you see, why do many billionaires with hundreds of billions of dollars like Elon still want to make more money every day while he will never be able to spend all that money until he dies? Furthermore, they are corrupt or they are trying to manipulate the market, they have no obligation to inform you, what evidence do you have to be sure that they are not corrupt or not invested in bitcoin?

In addition, there are many corruption cases in the government that take decades to investigate. Then, you know the truth, does it have any more meaning?

[Wend]

The SEC has repeatedly rejected ETFs without reason, and even though they lost the case against Grayscale, they continued to reject other ETFs days later without providing a valid reason. So I'm not surprised that they continued to delay and extend it until next year. After all, even if they lose their case against Grayscale in court, but the decision to accept or reject an ETF application still belongs to them. So don't expect too much of any ETF being approved while the battle between the SEC and cryptocurrencies is still very intense.

Until the SEC develops robust regulatory and legal infrastructure to control the Bitcoin spot ETF, they may never approve it. The agency has always claimed that price volatility and proneness of the sector to fraud and manipulation are the reasons why they have refused to approve any application. From the current disposition of Gary Gensler, there is no sign that he has shifted grounds on his skepticism about Bitcoin. We just have to wait until the deadlines of those applications to see the SEC report on them. If these reports are not favorable to the applicants they can seek redress in the court. But a more Bitcoin-friendly government will be the easiest means of getting approval.

Volatility, scam, manipulation...? There isn't a single good reason for them to reject ETFs, they really can't find a better reason, LOL. I simply think that they want to control the cryptocurrency market but they have not been successful in doing so so they will not approve or accept any request coming from cryptocurrency. That is clearly seen in the fact that they are looking for ways to attack the market, they always say that cryptocurrencies are securities and need to be regulated, and they are the stock market regulator .

[DooMAD]

Until the SEC develops robust regulatory and legal infrastructure to control the Bitcoin spot ETF, they may never approve it. The agency has always claimed that price volatility and proneness of the sector to fraud and manipulation are the reasons why they have refused to approve any application. From the current disposition of Gary Gensler, there is no sign that he has shifted grounds on his skepticism about Bitcoin. We just have to wait until the deadlines of those applications to see the SEC report on them. If these reports are not favorable to the applicants they can seek redress in the court. But a more Bitcoin-friendly government will be the easiest means of getting approval.

Yep, it'll be at least another few years, I believe, until an ETF gets approved.  They've stated explicitly that they want a stronger legal/regulatory framework in place.

And the only reason anyone cares is because they think it'll pump the price.  I'm not in any rush to see an even larger number of institutional investors making bets on the sidelines without contributing anything to the network.  Remember that these people won't be trading bitcoin.  They'll be trading IOUs that represent bitcoin.  The phrase "parasitic leeches" springs to mind.