The impact of war on global economy.

[Argoo]

Oil is the main key to a country. If war occurs, those who have a lot of oil resources and supplies will be in power and can control the market.
I think the country's economy will improve because of that, maybe it will affect other sectors but in that area they are superior.

If we apply your statements to the Russian war that it unleashed on the territory of Ukraine, then the owners of oil companies in Russia should now have large profits. But this is far from what happens in reality.

Firstly, international sanctions have been imposed on the Russian oil and gas industry, which limit both the volume of sales of oil and its refined products and the price at which they are sold. As a result, oil and gas production in Russia is declining.

Secondly, this war is entering its logical next stage, when dozens of Ukrainian drones periodically launch attacks on oil refineries and oil depots already on Russian territory. Because of this, the size of losses increases greatly. It is unlikely that Russia's war in this case will improve its economy. Rather, on the contrary, the war and the subsequent international isolation will set Russia back in economic development for many decades.

[1715535415]

1715535415

[1715535415]

1715535415

[1715535415]

1715535415

[1715535415]

1715535415

[serveria.com]

Oil is the main key to a country. If war occurs, those who have a lot of oil resources and supplies will be in power and can control the market.
I think the country's economy will improve because of that, maybe it will affect other sectors but in that area they are superior.

If we apply your statements to the Russian war that it unleashed on the territory of Ukraine, then the owners of oil companies in Russia should now have large profits. But this is far from what happens in reality.

Firstly, international sanctions have been imposed on the Russian oil and gas industry, which limit both the volume of sales of oil and its refined products and the price at which they are sold. As a result, oil and gas production in Russia is declining.

Secondly, this war is entering its logical next stage, when dozens of Ukrainian drones periodically launch attacks on oil refineries and oil depots already on Russian territory. Because of this, the size of losses increases greatly. It is unlikely that Russia's war in this case will improve its economy. Rather, on the contrary, the war and the subsequent international isolation will set Russia back in economic development for many decades.

Oh, colonel, that's huge progress, you finally found courage to admit that AFU is bombing Russian civilian targets. They do attack, but what damage do they do? Are they able to reach and hit those targets?

Such attacks can't affect the outcome of this war. Ukraine keeps losing it's people, losing it's territory. Russia is winning.

And btw, some news regarding gas exports from the US:

Recent developments in the US show "Europe just traded one risk for another" through its increased reliance on the US for its LNG supply.

This latest development has given yet another reality check to Europe as US LNG constituted almost half of Europe's LNG imports in 2023.

"Gas addicted Europe trades one energy risk for another," said a recent headline in Bloomberg capturing the essence of the conundrum European policymakers face.

The debate assumes further importance because it concerns the energy security of European nations which now seem to be dependent on events and developments thousands of miles away. "It gives the US outsized geopolitical influence," according to that same Bloomberg article.

For consumers, it could mean another surge in energy costs as most of Europe's LNG supply is priced through the spot market, in contrast to Asian buyers who use long term contracts.

Source: https://www.euronews.com/business/2024/02/02/what-us-president-bidens-lng-freeze-might-mean-for-europe

What it actually means is that the US can stop LNG export any time for any reason they like (like strategic considerations or similar). Sorry guys, nothing personal, just business. 

[Argoo]

Oil is the main key to a country. If war occurs, those who have a lot of oil resources and supplies will be in power and can control the market.
I think the country's economy will improve because of that, maybe it will affect other sectors but in that area they are superior.

If we apply your statements to the Russian war that it unleashed on the territory of Ukraine, then the owners of oil companies in Russia should now have large profits. But this is far from what happens in reality.

Firstly, international sanctions have been imposed on the Russian oil and gas industry, which limit both the volume of sales of oil and its refined products and the price at which they are sold. As a result, oil and gas production in Russia is declining.

Secondly, this war is entering its logical next stage, when dozens of Ukrainian drones periodically launch attacks on oil refineries and oil depots already on Russian territory. Because of this, the size of losses increases greatly. It is unlikely that Russia's war in this case will improve its economy. Rather, on the contrary, the war and the subsequent international isolation will set Russia back in economic development for many decades.

Oh, colonel, that's huge progress, you finally found courage to admit that AFU is bombing Russian civilian targets. They do attack, but what damage do they do? Are they able to reach and hit those targets?

Such attacks can't affect the outcome of this war. Ukraine keeps losing it's people, losing it's territory. Russia is winning.

Ukraine continues to destroy military installations on Russian territory, and has also begun to destroy dual-use facilities that contribute to the increase in Russian military power in its quest to conquer Ukraine.

Oil refineries and fuel tanks on Russian territory are legitimate targets for Ukraine, since oil is the export of oil - the main source of revenue for the Russian budget, covering the costs of a full-scale war in Ukraine. In addition, it is fuel for Russian military equipment. In my post, I wrote that the war is entering another stage, the stage of its transfer to Russian territory. Previously, Ukraine had limited opportunities to do this, since the allies did not allow the allies to attack the territory of the Russian Federation with the weapons provided, and there were very few of their own in Ukraine. This year, Ukraine is going to produce at least a million drones; mass serial production of high-precision long-range missiles that will reach both Moscow and the Urals is being established.

Since the beginning of 2024 alone, Ukrainian drones have attacked seven oil refineries in the Russian Federation. Thus, on January 9, in the Russian city of Orel, drones attacked a fuel and energy complex.

On the night of January 18, Ukrainian drones attacked the St. Petersburg oil terminal.

On January 19, the oil depot in the city of Klintsy, Bryansk region, was unlucky. Oil tanks at the facility caught fire.
On January 20, loud explosions were heard again at the same tank farm. The oil depot burned for two days in a row.

On the night of January 21, the Novatek fuel plant closed due to a drone attack on the sea terminal in Ust-Luga, Leningrad Region. This plant processed fuel for the Russian Armed Forces. After the SBU attack, all tankers located at the terminal moved far out to sea.

After the fire on January 25, the largest oil refinery in Tuapse, a city in the Krasnodar Territory and a major port on the Black Sea coast, was paralyzed due to a strike by Ukrainian drones. This plant annually processes up to 9 million tons of raw materials and is among the top 10 largest in the Russian Federation.

On the night of February 3, the Lukoil oil refinery in the Volgograd region was attacked. The drone hit the primary oil refining plant producing ELOU-AVT-5 fuel.

Based on the results of the first month of 2024, Russian oil companies reduced gasoline exports abroad by 37%. Sales of diesel fuel, the largest export of petroleum products, fell 23%. The Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation explained that the reduction in exports was a consequence of “unscheduled repairs” at oil refineries and the need to supply the domestic market. In the future, such “unscheduled repairs” should become more frequent and scaled up. Russia wanted war, it will get it.

[WillyAp]

We all know

All warfare is based on deception.

Ukrain did not reconquer and surely it is a struggle.
I wonder how many of the foreign helpers are still alive? Any input on that? 

[Argoo]

We all know

All warfare is based on deception.

Ukrain did not reconquer and surely it is a struggle.
I wonder how many of the foreign helpers are still alive? Any input on that? 

If you mean how many foreign citizens are participating in the war on the side of Ukraine, then it is known that after the full-scale invasion of the Russian army into Ukraine in February 2022, about 20 thousand citizens from 55 countries joined the International Legion under the Ukrainian Armed Forces at the beginning of this war. How many foreigners are still fighting in Ukraine a year later is a question to which hardly anyone today can give a definite answer. Some experts put the figure at 3 thousand people, others - even less. This is due to the fact that when such volunteers got to the front, and the situation there was very different from what they had seen before, it brought more problems than good. Since then, the Ukrainian authorities have tightened the rules for admitting foreigners.

In general, foreign fighters appeared in Ukraine long before the start of full-scale Russian aggression. Some people from neighboring countries joined the fight against pro-Russian separatists at the beginning of the war in Donbass in 2014. Among them were many Georgians who formed the Georgian National Legion. Now this is the largest foreign unit in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

In 2014, Belarusians also appeared in Donbass. Now two units are fighting for Ukraine at once - the Pagonya regiment and the Kastus Kalinovsky regiment. The commander of the Kalinovsky regiment says that without a free Ukraine there will be no free Belarus - from the Lukashenko regime.

Another large international structure is the “Freedom of Russia” legion, which was initially formed by officers and soldiers of the Russian army who went over to the side of Ukraine. According to the command, the number of this unit is constantly growing.

Other foreign volunteer units within the Armed Forces of Ukraine are the battalions named after Khamzat Gelayev, Dzhokhar Dudayev, Sheikh Mansur and the Ministry of Defense of the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria (formed by anti-Putin and anti-Kadyrov Chechens), the Normandy Brigade (consisting of Canadian retired military personnel), the Canadian-Ukrainian battalion (uniting representatives of the Ukrainian diaspora in Canada) and a number of others.

https://ru.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%98%D0%BD%D1%82%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%BD%D0%B0%D1%86%D0%B8 %D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%B0%D0%BB%D1%8C%D0%BD%D1%8B%D0%B9_%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%B3%D0%B8%D0 %BE%D0%BD_%D1%82%D0%B5%D1%80%D1%80%D0%B8%D1%82%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%B8%D0%B0%D0%BB %D1%8C%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B9_%D0%BE%D0%B1%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%BD%D1%8B_%D0%A3%D0 %BA%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%B8%D0%BD%D1%8B

https://www.golosameriki.com/a/ukraine-army-foreigners/6973501.html

[harapan]

Everything is being affected by the war. The price of commodities and as in everything has increased and that's due to the demand of oil that's also being used in war and the same goes to the affected areas where oil is being produced.

While there have been a lot of resources and sources of oil, you know that when there are events like this. They just make the prices balloon because they'll reason out it's because plainly of the war.

On for the affected land masses of the war, the decline of prices of the lands there are massively happening.

let us put it this way, war will always have significant impact in the economy especially those countries which are directly involved one way or another.
neighbouring countries as well. and those countries which are heavily relying on the products produced by those countries. and other countries which are not directly involved will also feel its impact as you said because most countries are still relying their oil resources outside of their region.

Meanwhile oil resources is greatly consumed in so many countries.Some countries depend wholly on other countries for their oil usage.when war occurs this way,the utilizations of weapons have increased and leads to shortage of oil.Hence,the price of oil begins to fluctuate and it becomes difficult for other countries to purchase and utilize oil for their day to day activities.

[naikturun]

It seems like war, or other global world problems are created to influence the world economy, war can affect the economic development of certain countries whether they are involved or not, and other factors such as crises, epidemics, natural disasters, accidents, politics, and others.

[barisbilgili]

It seems like war, or other global world problems are created to influence the world economy, war can affect the economic development of certain countries whether they are involved or not, and other factors such as crises, epidemics, natural disasters, accidents, politics, and others.

In fact, all sectors are quite influential if war occurs and this will certainly be detrimental economically, politically or otherwise.
Economic growth will decline drastically because of war and a lot of infrastructure is likely to be damaged as a result of war, so it will hinder economic growth and for countries that are not affected by war, it will certainly have a big impact because of hampered exports or imports.

[pinggoki]

1. Increase in the national GDP is least likely to be caused by a war.

That depends, if your country is a war profiteering nation like US, UK and Germany then you're likely going to see an increase in your national GDP but if your country is the warzone, it's probably a likely thing that your GDP won't be that huge.

3. War affects the stock market by causing a decline in stock prices.

That depends, say for example in a war torn country that has the largest factory of a particular company and the factory of that company was a casualty to the war, I think that could be a case that the stock price of that particular company or if they've got a really big customer/consumer base in a war torn country then probably we would see the same thing too but if they don't have those, I don't think war affects a stock price that much.

[WillyAp]

In 2014, Belarusians also appeared in Donbass. Now two units are fighting for Ukraine at once - the Pagonya regiment and the Kastus Kalinovsky regiment. The commander of the Kalinovsky regiment says that without a free Ukraine there will be no free Belarus - from the Lukashenko regime.

Another large international structure is the “Freedom of Russia” legion, which was initially formed by officers and soldiers of the Russian army who went over to the side of Ukraine. According to the command, the number of this unit is constantly growing.

Other foreign volunteer units within the Armed Forces of Ukraine are the battalions named after Khamzat Gelayev, Dzhokhar Dudayev, Sheikh Mansur and the Ministry of Defense of the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria (formed by anti-Putin and anti-Kadyrov Chechens), the Normandy Brigade (consisting of Canadian retired military personnel), the Canadian-Ukrainian battalion (uniting representatives of the Ukrainian diaspora in Canada) and a number of others.

https://www.golosameriki.com/a/ukraine-army-foreigners/6973501.html

Thanks a lot

[wendty]

that's right. I think the impact is even bigger than that. but the most important thing I think is the economy, especially in terms of food. in war food remains the main source of human energy. if there is a war of course its circulation will be very difficult. I think this is the main problem that is more serious than anything else from the war.

[Stable090]

that's right. I think the impact is even bigger than that. but the most important thing I think is the economy, especially in terms of food. in war food remains the main source of human energy. if there is a war of course its circulation will be very difficult. I think this is the main problem that is more serious than anything else from the war.

During the war, I don't think that the first thing to consider should be the economy; the life of the people and their safety should be the highest priority of the government, all the government cared about at that time was how to beat their brother country, And the economy is like a country's business, and other countries, such as the UN, must come to the people's aid, yet despite all of this, our nations continue to turn a deaf ear. People become hungry since it will be considerably more difficult to gain access to your home and all of the assets it contains.  because even with the aid it would still get to everybody, and they might not get efficient people to voluntarily participate, and that is why you just have to hope to be among the lucky people during war.

[oktana]

True. Though number 2 is a fact and not an impact of war. Oil even promotes war due to its importance. Some other impacts I can think of include that war hinders the flow of goods and services which has its role to play on global economy. War also bring about debt because funding war is expensive and most time it’s expensive than a government can afford (all of the ammunitions and machinery used), so they are forced to borrow. And war is really disastrous to economies because it destroys everything and is sometimes a fresh start.

[Linggajanitra]

Yes, maybe the impact of war on the global economy indeed gives concerns about the stability of the global economy and produces significant effects on finance. This condition will also lead to worries whose threat of protectionism will potentially damage the open global trade system. This trade war will have an impact on several economic and financial market sectors, maybe among:
   1. Global economic growth.
This trade war has had a significant impact on global economic growth. Such as the decline in international trade and economic uncertainty that has hampered business investment in investment so that the slowing global economic growth.
   2. Uncertainty of supply chain.
This war will create uncertainty in this case. Which might also affect the economic sector and financial markets that exist throughout the world.
   3. Regional Economic Stability: A trade war between the US and China has also led to regional economic stability with several countries so as to consider strategies and search for other alternative markets.
The impact of this trade war has also exceeded which is detrimental to the economy directly. And increase uncertainty in the political economic politics that interfere with open global trade. Therefore, a broader collaboration effort is needed to be able to resolve this conflict, and can develop long -term and sustainable solutions to the global economy going forward.

[Iroh]

that's right. I think the impact is even bigger than that. but the most important thing I think is the economy, especially in terms of food. in war food remains the main source of human energy. if there is a war of course its circulation will be very difficult. I think this is the main problem that is more serious than anything else from the war.

Wars put a stop to everything. Any advances in economic, technological and infrastructural development would be lost. A country having entered a full blown war with an equally formidable opponent would prioritize the need to crush their enemies and win the war than how the economy is faring. The sooner the war is over, the sooner growth and progress can again resume.

You would be really lucky if a country in an all out war manages to grow enough food to even consider circulating.
Food products normally imported would decrease to the barest minimum or even stopped as funds would be diverted to the war efforts. So I think ending the war would be more serious.

[Assface16678]

that's right. I think the impact is even bigger than that. but the most important thing I think is the economy, especially in terms of food. in war food remains the main source of human energy. if there is a war of course its circulation will be very difficult. I think this is the main problem that is more serious than anything else from the war.

Wars put a stop to everything. Any advances in economic, technological and infrastructural development would be lost. A country having entered a full blown war with an equally formidable opponent would prioritize the need to crush their enemies and win the war than how the economy is faring. The sooner the war is over, the sooner growth and progress can again resume.

You would be really lucky if a country in an all out war manages to grow enough food to even consider circulating.
Food products normally imported would decrease to the barest minimum or even stopped as funds would be diverted to the war efforts. So I think ending the war would be more serious.

War is chaos, no matter who's involved in it. As long as they lose something—lives, food, oil, or any resources—there will be no winner. War is the only end point of a conversation in a country if they can't come up with an argument, but they are not thinking about their citizens, even their own country. No matter what war they do and how they defeat another country, they still can't be considered a winner as they still lose something. Not just food, but more valuable than that is human life. We don't know why some leaders of a country will engage in or result in this kind of event; what would they achieve from it, dominance? Power? All of that will be meaningless if they lose all they have, including the lives of their citizens. Instead of protecting their citizens by not engaging in a war, they still engage as part of their ego.

[Sithara007]

Right now a silent wealth redistribution is taking place and I am quite happy with that. Countries such as India and China are getting Russian hydrocarbons at a discount, and they are able to earn good profits by re-selling refined products to Europe. Also cheap Russian crude oil has lowered benchmark oil prices by quite a bit. It is good that Europeans are paying a premium, since they can afford it. I hope that this situation will continue for another 5-10 years, or until when EVs are able to fully replace gasoline and diesel driven vehicles.

[DrBeer]

Not surprising news, but thought oil and other resources "transferring economy", would start exchanging for food later. I guess the collapse of the Russian economy is accelerating
So the news: Russia has started exchanging oil for Indian bananas.
Russian authorities are launching a "banana scheme" to solve the problem of trade imbalance with India, which has increased its oil purchases from Russia 11 times since the war began, but has not launched a reciprocal flow of goods to the Russian market.

Beautiful game of India and China, by this raw material appendage

PS have you laughed already ? You think that's all ? NO ! 

"State Duma deputy Gavrilov called for exchanging oil for flowers from Kenya and Colombia. State Duma deputy from the CPRF faction Sergei Gavrilov suggested exchanging Russian oil for tulips and other flowers from Kenya, Ecuador and Colombia. His words are quoted by RIA Novosti."
 

[serveria.com]

Not surprising news, but thought oil and other resources "transferring economy", would start exchanging for food later. I guess the collapse of the Russian economy is accelerating

My little lying friend, why do you always lie? It's embarrassing, every word you post is a lie, literally every single word:

Russia's economy grew 3.6 percent last year thanks to a boost in military spending because of the offensive in Ukraine although long-term economic challenges remain, official data showed on Wednesday.

The 2023 result shows the economy has largely absorbed the effect of the sanctions, finding ways around them by changes in supply lines and trade partners and through government intervention.

Economic activity was supported by favourable energy prices, easy credit conditions and strong domestic demand because of the defence sector, as well as rising salaries to attract workers in sectors experiencing labour shortfalls.

Another boost for the Russian government has been its ability to reduce its budget dependency on oil and gas revenues.

The sector represented around half of federal revenues in 2022. That proportion dropped to just one third last year.

While Western powers are trying to come up with new sanctions to hamper the economy, particularly the arms industry, the process has been slowed down by divisions within the United States and the EU.

Russian authorities are expecting economic activity to slow down in 2024 but continue to grow.

Source: https://www.barrons.com/news/russia-s-gdp-up-by-3-6-percent-in-2023-statistics-agency-403c0bc5

PS have you laughed already ?  

Meanwhile, Ukraine is losing this war, losing territory day by day, Avdiivka is about to fall it's already partly occupied by the Russians, they also entered Novomykhailivka recently, other locations on the frontline are equally alarming for AFU. What's more, AFU commander-in-chief Zaluzhny has been fired by president Zelensky for poor performance. Still willing to laugh?

[electronicash]

^ not sure which media DrBeer is watching really but it's feeding him the wrong information.
the media has a very huge disconnection to reality, they don't even report what is going on to the farmers in EU and the farmers in Canada blocking their highways in protest to the lies being told to the public. they all wake up seeing the truth. 

i know it must be frustrating to watch Tucker's interview with Putin but at least the 70-year-old man knows exactly what he is talking about.  they are using rubles and yuan in their transactions, and their economies are fine.