Potential events that can initiate next bitcoin rally

[ingiltere]

All of this could have a positive impact on the next rally. But the most important part for me is adoption. If more people actively use Bitcoin and add it to their investment portfolio, the increase in demand is the factor that will most easily drive the price up. All other news will have temporary effects, but the actual desire to own and the incentive to hold will drive the real appreciation.
Many people still don't realize how important limited supply is. When governments are printing money without limits and people are trying to survive against inflation, they will have an epiphany when they discover Bitcoin's limited supply.

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[taufik123]

All of this could have a positive impact on the next rally. But the most important part for me is adoption. If more people actively use Bitcoin and add it to their investment portfolio, the increase in demand is the factor that will most easily drive the price up. All other news will have temporary effects, but the actual desire to own and the incentive to hold will drive the real appreciation.
Many people still don't realize how important limited supply is. When governments are printing money without limits and people are trying to survive against inflation, they will have an epiphany when they discover Bitcoin's limited supply.

I agree with what you said about adoption.
But it's the government regulations that are holding it all back.
Maybe we can still hold Bitcoin but can't use it freely, Regulation is only limited to trading and there are even some countries that completely ban Bitcoin.

Some people have switched to Bitcoin and they invest their money in Bitcoin for the long term because they see a limited supply of Bitcoin and it is still not fully mined.
This will increase the price of Bitcoin even higher, rather than having to rely on traditional money that continues to be printed and produces crazy inflation.

The 4th Halving will be the next take-off point for Bitcoin to reach a new ATH.
Seeing how the past history of the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd Halving successfully printed a new ATH, and the halving that will occur in 2024 will be a moment that is quite much awaited which is likely to be a rally event for bitcoin.

[bayu7adi]

Reliable institutions and individuals announcing their Bitcoin purchases will also positively affect the Bitcoin price. The substances you mentioned will have effects, but we cannot predict the magnitude of these effects.

I think the first thing that will affect the market is institutions starting to buy Bitcoin. If something like this happens and institutions start announcing these purchases one after another, there will be a lot of impact and the price will rise.

In order for the substances we mentioned to be effective, the market must expand. A situation is needed that will make many people invest in Bitcoin again.

However, this is contingent on the extent of influence exerted by the individual or institution purchasing it. The repercussions are not a prolonged bull run; it's more akin to a pump. It's important to remember that anyone who buys Bitcoin will eventually sell it. If purchases by individuals or institutions are the catalyst for price increases, there will be a bearish market at some point.

The type of bull run that occurred aligns better with some of the points mentioned by the OP.

[OgNasty]

Right now I think a catalyst for a rally in the short term would be some strength shown by Binance. The big cloud hanging over the market at the moment seems to be people thinking Binance isn’t solvent, so if BNB made a move upward, it would calm the market. Then of course there’s the ETF approval and even the mtgox distribution, which once those happen would be an all clear sign for major investors.

[sana54210]

Reliable institutions and individuals announcing their Bitcoin purchases will also positively affect the Bitcoin price. The substances you mentioned will have effects, but we cannot predict the magnitude of these effects.

I think the first thing that will affect the market is institutions starting to buy Bitcoin. If something like this happens and institutions start announcing these purchases one after another, there will be a lot of impact and the price will rise.

In order for the substances we mentioned to be effective, the market must expand. A situation is needed that will make many people invest in Bitcoin again.

However, this is contingent on the extent of influence exerted by the individual or institution purchasing it. The repercussions are not a prolonged bull run; it's more akin to a pump. It's important to remember that anyone who buys Bitcoin will eventually sell it. If purchases by individuals or institutions are the catalyst for price increases, there will be a bearish market at some point.

The type of bull run that occurred aligns better with some of the points mentioned by the OP.

Yeah, that's right, there are places that buys over a billion dollars worth of bitcoin and it doesn't impact the market as much as Elon Musk just tweeting about it. This is insane, and people are making a mistake there, but it's also the reality. We need to reach to a point where we could end up with a result that should be important to handle, and yes it's not that easy to handle it all but we need to end up doing it one way or another.

I hope that the best thing to do in this case would be making sure that it ends up with something that would be profitable, we need to end up with a good return that could end up with some profits if we could just focus on the real things that impact, and not hyped news that has no impact on the actual price.

[ShowOff]

I understand that the OP made 5 important points about what could drive the price of bitcoin up in the future. Of course I agree with all the points you mentioned, but it's not that simple.

El Salvador and several African countries seem to already have clear regulations regarding the legality of bitcoin, but in fact the impact on the demand of bitcoin is not very significant. Broad regulation might encourage more demand, but if it's just one or two third world countries, then I don't expect there to be much of an impact on the market. The growth of the industry and the growing confidence of institutional investors in this industry is something that will probably be equally good, meaning they have a large share in the market because of their financial strength.

[coolcoinz]

Impact: Bitcoin ETFs are regulated by the SEC, so investors feel secure investing by thinking their investments are protected by law.

This is just SEC propaganda. How did the SEC protect FTX investors? The SEC is clueless about bitcoin because if it's a commodity, it should fall under CFTC, but somehow SEC doesn't want to allow CFTC to regulate bitcoin and Gensler said that himself that he will not allow CFTC to override SEC authority, so in other words Gensler has the support of the Biden administration and wants to delay anything regarding bitcoin for as long as possible, even if that means delaying a commodity that he has no authority over.

There's a game being played here and I hope all of you can see it. They are delaying the inevitable, because bitcoin will still be here in 5 years, but Gensler will not be the chairman of the SEC and Biden will probably be in a state of severe dementia, or dead.

[Odohu]

Bitcoin ETF

Details: An exchange-traded fund (ETF) is a type of investment fund that is traded on a traditional stock exchange. The Bitcoin ETF tracks the real-time price of bitcoin, which is issued by asset managers who purchase bitcoin from the spot market, bundle them together, and offer their customers shares of that bundled bitcoin. These shares are exchangeable on the traditional stock market.
 
Impact: Bitcoin ETFs are regulated by the SEC, so investors feel secure investing by thinking their investments are protected by law. Bitcoin ETF’s share is tradable to the stock exchange market, so some investors feel comfortable buying this share instead of real bitcoin, which needs to be stored and secured by the users.
 
Evidence: World-largest asset managers like BlackRock, Fidelity, WisdomTree, Invesco, Valkyrie like asset manager applied for the bitcoin ETF, and many analysts predict that it will be approved just before the halving.
 
Pros:

• Can be brought as a share.
• Regulated
• Tax efficiency

Cons:

• Investors can't hold real bitcoin.
• Higher fees
• They have no control over their fund.

I'm still struggling to understand how Bitcoin ETF approval will lead to increase in price of Bitcoin considering that the ETF itself does not correspond to owning real Bitcoin. For instance, if retails buy Nasdaq in the forex brokers through their trading platform, this is so insignificant to cause a rise in price of the shares of the company as what is being traded in the market is like the features. I understand that Bitcoin respond so well to fundamental, perhaps the news of ETF approvals can cause some gains in the price of Bitcoin but if this rise can be sustain by this news is what I'm yet to understand.

So many people  are already predicting that approval of Bitcoin ETF next year followed by the halving is enough fundamental to push Bitcoin to an ATH. While this sounds nice and cogent, realization of such projection still leaves so much uncertainties. My best guess is that the ETF approval will create the hype while the halving will create the imbalance in the demand that is needed to propel the price.

[Sophokles]

I'm still struggling to understand how Bitcoin ETF approval will lead to increase in price of Bitcoin considering that the ETF itself does not correspond to owning real Bitcoin. For instance, if retails buy Nasdaq in the forex brokers through their trading platform, this is so insignificant to cause a rise in price of the shares of the company as what is being traded in the market is like the features. I understand that Bitcoin respond so well to fundamental, perhaps the news of ETF approvals can cause some gains in the price of Bitcoin but if this rise can be sustain by this news is what I'm yet to understand.

To understand that you need to understand the concept of ETF.

The Bitcoin ETF tracks the real-time price of bitcoin, which is issued by asset managers who purchase bitcoin from the spot market, bundle them together, and offer their customers shares of that bundled bitcoin. These shares are exchangeable on the traditional stock market.

For an asset manager to offer bitcoin ETFs to their customer they need to buy bitcoin from the market. Some of the asset managers portfolios are so large that if they put 1% of their total assets into purchasing bitcoin from the market it will create a massive upward rally. Just think what will happens if all of their ETFs get approved and they start accumulating bitcoin from the market.

So many people  are already predicting that approval of Bitcoin ETF next year followed by the halving is enough fundamental to push Bitcoin to an ATH. While this sounds nice and cogent, realization of such projection still leaves so much uncertainties. My best guess is that the ETF approval will create the hype while the halving will create the imbalance in the demand that is needed to propel the price.

Halving will reduce the block rewards for miner so the price needs to be corrected so that miners can be profitable. Otherwise they will shift their mining power to other assets like BSV, BCH. Your fact about halving is valid.

[justdimin]

There are many factors to consider when we are expecting bitcoin bullrun but the only one that attract more focus is the Halving, the market will pump and then there will be an increase on the bitcoin market value, because the demand also will increase and then the intended blocks mined will constitute the available bitcoin in circulation after which the miner received the half reward of the mining, as you've said already, there are other microeconomic factors that help with this such as the bitcoin ETF news and development, though this is not highly reflected on a long go on bitcoin price, it only causes a little stir than the significant difference we have during the halving.

Yeah right, halving should be something that makes us a bit more happy about it and we could definitely see it do very well. I understand that it may not be something that would be that easy to handle but at the end of the day we are going to end up with something that profits us one way or another.

I think it's quite important to realize that we are going to end up with some sort of money from it, but that is not going to be all that easy, it should be something that would be very hard to handle. I hope that people could feel fine about it because if the yare too late to buy it now, they are going to regret it later on when we break over the all time high price and by the looks of it, halving will make sure that it happens.

[Sophokles]

There are many factors to consider when we are expecting bitcoin bullrun but the only one that attract more focus is the Halving, the market will pump and then there will be an increase on the bitcoin market value, because the demand also will increase and then the intended blocks mined will constitute the available bitcoin in circulation after which the miner received the half reward of the mining, as you've said already, there are other microeconomic factors that help with this such as the bitcoin ETF news and development, though this is not highly reflected on a long go on bitcoin price, it only causes a little stir than the significant difference we have during the halving.

Yeah right, halving should be something that makes us a bit more happy about it and we could definitely see it do very well. I understand that it may not be something that would be that easy to handle but at the end of the day we are going to end up with something that profits us one way or another.

I think it's quite important to realize that we are going to end up with some sort of money from it, but that is not going to be all that easy, it should be something that would be very hard to handle. I hope that people could feel fine about it because if the yare too late to buy it now, they are going to regret it later on when we break over the all time high price and by the looks of it, halving will make sure that it happens.

Isn't it obvious that if something is hard to obtain then more valuable it will be? The mining hash rate is gradually raising and if the price of Bitcoin touches our expectations then miners will make more money. Bitcoin halving is a fascinating concept that Satoshi came up with which became the key factor in determining the overall bitcoin market price action. A innovative application of a basic supply and demand theory.

[Unbunplease]

In my opinion, one of the events that could energize a bullish rally is the approval of bitcoin into the Blackrock ETF. The SEC deliberately delays events to set off a chain of events at the right time; the SEC is not independent in its decision making. Another event is the triggering of the process of distrust in fiat.

[serjent05]

In my opinion, one of the events that could energize a bullish rally is the approval of bitcoin into the Blackrock ETF. The SEC deliberately delays events to set off a chain of events at the right time; the SEC is not independent in its decision making. Another event is the triggering of the process of distrust in fiat.

Another news drives the possibility for the spot ETF to be approved higher.  The US Congress made a call to SEC to approve Spot ETF.  This may give pressure to SEC to give in and approve Spot ETF requests.  If many of these requests are approved, then we might see an exponential growth on Bitcoin price because these approved Spot ETF will have their service activated almost at the same time creating huge demand to the Bitcoin market.

[Joshapat]

Seeing the global economic situation which is still sluggish like now, of course it is very difficult to see events that can pump Bitcoin apart from halving, the number of countries opening tenders to legalize Bitcoin is not enough to make people panic buy, it looks like the end of this year the price will be around $30k.